A Shot Across Nato's Bows - Russian tanks enter Georgia - Georgians enter South Ossetia - all out war?

Lestat wrote:

The referendum would be a foregone conclusion. The UN and the US made a rod for it's own back in backing Kosovar independence. Logically they should also back independence for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The big difference of course is that Georgia hasn't been thumbing its nose at the US. Quite the opposite in fact.

So independence is dependent on the state you are separating from being in the favour of the USA or otherwise? So much for self determination. Shows up these issues for what they are, basically self interest and interference is the game be it Kosovo or Ossetia.

Lestat wrote:

Russia has already lost. The US cannot afford to be seen to knuckle under to an ex-superpower.

We need to also see this also from a Russian perspective, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that prevents war. Neither side can be seen to back down. It could be dress up very positively if there was any genuine will to resolve the problems.

Lestat wrote:

I would say that General Winter and a willingness to sacrifice millions of people were war-winners for Russia rather than skillful troops.

I would say that Zhukov and Kutuzov were not fools.

Lestat wrote:

It will probably become a guerrilla war unless the UN acts, forces Russia to withdraw and sends forces to South Ossetia.

No matter what way this plays this could end up a terrorist war if the Russians want to play mischief. Surely the better option is self determination by properly monitored referendums for these once autonomous regions. It not Georgia also the aggressor here?

Squire wrote:

Where next Moldova?

Lestat wrote:

Whatever bit of their former empire the Russians want back I suppose.

All break ups of Empires cause problems and the Russians may well have genuine enough concerns, or they may chose to use those concerns for other purpose. The issues surrounding minorities in newly independent states is none the less (more so I think) an issue that does need to be addressed. Transnistria has all the makings of a thorny problem.

We in Europe should be looking at this slightly differently and consider our long term relations and probable inter dependency with the Bear. Our long term interests may not be entirely the same as those of the USA.

cactus flower wrote:

The Georgians just launched an attack on the UN mandated Russian Peace Keeping force in South Ossetia. The UN would seem obliged to tell the Georgians to back off.

Does the Russian Peacekeeping Force have a UN Mandate?

Squire wrote:

So independence is dependent on the state you are separating from being in the favour of the USA or otherwise?

Yes.

Squire wrote:

We need to also see this also from a Russian perspective, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that prevents war.

The war has already begun. Also let's not paint the Russians as the guys in the white hats. They are quite as raedy to act out of self-interest as the Americans. It is also a fact that South Ossetia is legally part of Georgia.

Squire wrote:

I would say that Zhukov and Kutuzov were not fools.

Granted, but could they have defeated Germany without the sacrifice of millions of their subordinates.

Squire wrote:

No matter what way this plays this could end up a terrorist war if the Russians want to play mischief. Surely the better option is self determination by properly monitored referendums for these once autonomous regions.

South Ossetian autonomy was imposed by the Soviet Union after the 1921 invasion.

Squire wrote:

It not Georgia also the aggressor here?.

No. Doesn't the Georgian government have a right to impose control over it's own territory.

Squire wrote:

We in Europe should be looking at this slightly differently and consider our long term relations and probable inter dependency with the Bear. Our long term interests may not be entirely the same as those of the USA.

Long term, both Russia and the US are enemies of Europe. What Europe whould be looking at is whether it is going to allow Russia or the US to dictate which small countries either wants to take as part of an empire.

Quote :

Lestat wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

The Georgians just launched an attack on the UN mandated Russian Peace Keeping force in South Ossetia. The UN would seem obliged to tell the Georgians to back off.

Does the Russian Peacekeeping Force have a UN Mandate?

Yes.

http://daccess-ods.un.org/access.nsf/Get?Open&DS=A/60/685&Lang=E

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/UNTC/UNPAN019224.pdf

Squire wrote:

We need to also see this also from a Russian perspective, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that prevents war.

Squire wrote:

We in Europe should be looking at this slightly differently and consider our long term relations and probable inter dependency with the Bear. Our long term interests may not be entirely the same as those of the USA.

Long term, both Russia and the US are enemies of Europe. What Europe whould be looking at is whether it is going to allow Russia or the US to dictate which small countries either wants to take as part of an empire.

Saakashvili seems to be none too secure at home in that there have been ongoing mass demonstrations by Georgian oppositionists against globalisation put down with tear gass and beatings. This exercise with general mobilisation of the reserve is a nice distraction.

He was either US backed in this or else thought he would nail it quickly take control of South Ossetia in a quick move before trying to get into NATO next year.
Either way, Russia appear to have been dragged into this.

cactus flower wrote:

Quote :

Lestat wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

The Georgians just launched an attack on the UN mandated Russian Peace Keeping force in South Ossetia. The UN would seem obliged to tell the Georgians to back off.

Does the Russian Peacekeeping Force have a UN Mandate?

Yes.

http://daccess-ods.un.org/access.nsf/Get?Open&DS=A/60/685&Lang=E

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/UNTC/UNPAN019224.pdf

Squire wrote:

We need to also see this also from a Russian perspective, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that prevents war.

Squire wrote:

We in Europe should be looking at this slightly differently and consider our long term relations and probable inter dependency with the Bear. Our long term interests may not be entirely the same as those of the USA.

Long term, both Russia and the US are enemies of Europe. What Europe whould be looking at is whether it is going to allow Russia or the US to dictate which small countries either wants to take as part of an empire.

Saakashvili seems to be none too secure at home in that there have been ongoing mass demonstrations by Georgian oppositionists against globalisation put down with tear gass and beatings. This exercise with general mobilisation of the reserve is a nice distraction.

He was either US backed in this or else thought he would nail it quickly take control of South Ossetia in a quick move before trying to get into NATO next year.
Either way, Russia appear to have been dragged into this.

Is he using his South Ossetia adventure to direct attention away from his economic policies (the Golden Straitjacket) handed to him by the IMF??? The WTO strikes again, cactusflower!

Oh the Golden Straightjacket - someone must have been reading Friedman. I had to read The Lexus and the Olive Tree when I was an undergraduate.

johnfás wrote:

Oh the Golden Straightjacket - someone must have been reading Friedman. I had to read The Lexus and the Olive Tree when I was an undergraduate.

I read them all, johnfàs, I read them all. Friedman, Klein, Stiglitz, Hertz, Ferguson, Bakan, van den Bossche, Palast, Glyn, Iversen, Guger, Vartainin, the lot. I find globalisation and particularly the workings of the WTO interesting.

cactus flower wrote:

Either way, Russia appear to have been dragged into this.

Russia has been occupying South Ossetia since the early 1990s.

Do you think the South Ossetians consider themselves occupied ? 70% of them have taken Russian nationality.

cactus flower wrote:

Do you think the South Ossetians consider themselves occupied ? 70% of them have taken Russian nationality.

No they don't. But legally, South Ossetia is part of Georgia, so they consider it occupied.

Did you confirm whether the Russians have a UN mandate? I don't think they do.

This is a good site and the link I posted previously records Russian peacekeeping and mediating involvement.

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=10846

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=10842

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/102834.htm

Quote :

Though Russia has supported South Ossetia, it has not met its main demand: integration into the Russian Federation. Senior Russian diplomats in
Tbilisi told Crisis Group this was unlikely to happen.170 In June 2004 Russia's Constitutional Court responded to an inquiry about the legality of
such a move by stating that discussions on South Ossetia, a region belonging to a foreign state, must be held with Georgia and at Georgia's inititiave.

Russia today is showing footage of destroyed tanks, and many dead soldiers in the streets. Tshkinvali is said to have been virtually demolished by Georgian shelling. People are in basements without food and water and artillery fire still going on. For the first two days Georgia refused and evacuation corridor. Both sides seem to be squaring up for battle in Tshkinvali. Yesterday the Russians bombed the main Georgian black sea port. This might be seen as a warning to the Georgians not to destroy the tunnel under the Caucuses which is the only road link between North and South Ossetia.

The UN site describes the Russian presence as peacekeeping. I haven't been able to find any specific UN resolution on South Ossetia: perhaps you might be able to. The JPKF (Joint Peace Keeping Force) is overseen by the OCSE (Organisation for Cooperation and Security in Europe).

This is from the US State Department website linked above -

Quote :

South Ossetian declaration of independence (within the U.S.S.R.) in September of 1990 was met with a firm negation from the Georgian Government, and in December Georgia abolished South Ossetia’s status as an autonomous oblast and declared a state of emergency in the region.

Armed conflict began in January of 1991 and continued until June of 1992. At that point, a cease-fire (the Sochi Agreement) was agreed upon by Russian, Georgian, and South Ossetian representatives, Georgia having declared independence in April of 1991...
The June 24, 1992, Sochi Agreement established a cease-fire between the Georgian and South Ossetian forces and defined both a zone of conflict around the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali and a security corridor along the border of South Ossetian territories. The Agreement also created the Joint Control Commission (JCC), and a peacekeeping body, the Joint Peacekeeping Forces group (JPKF). The JCC was charged with demilitarizing the security zone in the conflict region and facilitating negotiations; it is Co-Chaired by Georgian, Russian, South Ossetian, and North Ossetian representatives. The JPKF is under Russian command and is comprised of peacekeepers from Georgia, Russia, and Russia’s North Ossetian autonomous republic (as the separatist South Ossetian government remained unrecognized). South Ossetian peacekeepers, however, serve in the North Ossetian contingent. The Organization for Security and Cooperation

South Ossetia has been semi-autonomous for most of the last century and has asserted its wish for independence on many occasions.

Both South Ossetians and Georgians living in South Ossetia were alienated from the Georgian government after closure of the major market in South Ossetia because of smuggling. It was felt to penalise everyone, not just smugglers and led to a loss of livelihoods.

The only other time I think we have seen South Ossetia on Irish television was the massacre at the school at Beslan.

http://members5.boardhost.com/medialens/msg/1218189780.html

This is a short and straightforward report that seems factually in accord with what can be seen on the TV.

Both sides have accused each other at various stages of ethnic cleansing and Russia is describing the current Georgian assault as genocide.

This is a good blog with a lot of very interesting comments on "Did Kosovo's independence directly lead to the war in Georgia?"

http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/08/08/was-south-ossetias-fate-sealed-in-kosovo/

One comment:

Quote :

Ossetia: courtesy of V.Putin after US snatched Kosovo from Serbia, the price asked by Albania for the AMBO pipe line.

Asterix

At this stage "Russian tanks enter Georgia" doesn't seem to reflect what has happened - Georgia moved on South Ossetia and Russia responded - Russian troops were already in Georgia (S. Ossetia) under the international peace keeping agreement.

Kosovo was not at all clever, it was a problem with many possibilities. If Kosovo why not Kurdistan? Why not a separate Basque country or Brittany?

We in Europe need to resolve our differences with Russia in a more constructive manner. It should be about our collective security and our collective interests. Demonising the likes of Russia or Serbia is anything but clever and treating Turkey as a hot bed of Islamic fundamentalism and whipping up anti Muslim fervour is all pretty sick. Problem is the average person does not ask too many questions, and does not question motives.

The question that we in the EU need to ask is what are our interests. My opinion is we are following policies that are 30 years out of date.

cactus flower wrote:

This is a good site and the link I posted previously records Russian peacekeeping and mediating involvement...

I think you've fallen for the Russian propaganda on it's empire buiding.

Squire wrote:

We in Europe need to resolve our differences with Russia in a more constructive manner. It should be about our collective security and our collective interests. .

Russia and the US are only interested in their own selfish interests.

Squire wrote:

Demonising the likes of Russia or Serbia is anything but clever and treating Turkey as a hot bed of Islamic fundamentalism and whipping up anti Muslim fervour is all pretty sick.

What's wrong with demonising the ethnic cleansers of Grozny and Kosovo? Why should we pander to the sensibilities of Islamic fanatics? And if we refrain from demonising the war criminals of Russia and Serbia then in the interests of fairness shouldn't we extend the same courtesy to the Bushes and the Al-Bashirs? And of course pander to the sensibilities of Christian fanatics.

Who says that Turkey is a hot bed of Islamic fundamentalism by the way?

[quote="Lestat"]

cactus flower wrote:

This is a good site and the link I posted previously records Russian peacekeeping and mediating involvement...

Lestat said

Quote :

I think you've fallen for the Russian propaganda on it's empire buiding.

Lestat- one of those links was to the UN site and the other to a very detailed paper by the International Crisis Group - members include Zbigniew Brezinski.

- Is he a secret Red ???

cactus flower wrote:

Lestat- one of those links was to the UN site and the other to a very detailed paper by the International Crisis Group - members include Zbigniew Brezinski.

- Is he a secret Red ???

I was referring to your general support for Russian actions rather than the links you provided.

Quote :

10 Aug 2008 10:42:24 GMT
Source: Reuters


Aug 10 (Reuters) - Following are developments in Georgia at 1030 gmt on Sunday: -- A senior Russian defence official said Russian troops controlled most of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital.
-- The Russian general staff confirmed that Georgian troops have started to leave Tskhinvali.
-- A Georgian military convoy carrying troops and towing heavy artillery withdrew from South Ossetia through the village of Ergneti, just inside Georgian-controlled territory south of Tskhinvali.
-- Russian warships which arrived at the Georgian Black Sea coast on Sunday have been ordered to prevent weapons from reaching the Caucasus state, Interfax news.
-- Russia bombed a military airfield outside the Georgian capital early on Sunday and Tbilisi said the Russians were also massing troops in Abkhazia, another rebel region.
-- An EU-U.S. delegation heads for Georgia to try to broker an end to the conflict.
-- Georgia said Russia had landed 4,000 troops by sea in Abkhazia overnight.
-- Georgia said Russian planes had bombed Georgia's military airfield 12 km (8 miles) from Tbilisi, and a plant there producing Sukhoi Su-25 ground fighters. There were no injuries.
OTHER MOVES:
-- The White House on Sunday deplored Russia's military action in the Georgia conflict as "dangerous and disproportionate" and warned it could have a "significant long-term impact" on relations between Washington and Moscow.
-- Britain advised its citizens to leave Georgia as soon as possible unless they had an urgent need to stay.
-- Ukraine said it reserved the right to bar Russian warships sent to the Georgian coast from returning to their Ukrainian base, Sevastopol. (Writing by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit;)

The move in Abkhazia is a bit worrying as is the apparent dragging in of Ukraine into the conflict. I wonder will the Reds lose the run of themselves and invade Georgia proper.

Lestat wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Lestat- one of those links was to the UN site and the other to a very detailed paper by the International Crisis Group - members include Zbigniew Brezinski.

- Is he a secret Red ???

I was referring to your general support for Russian actions rather than the links you provided.

Trying to put a balanced view is not of necessity support for Russian actions. This is being framed as Russian aggression, but are we absolutely sure that it is? Until it is clearer why this started it is pointless to attribute blame. There are no angels in this one and all the players have possible dubious motives.

Squire wrote:

This is being framed as Russian aggression, but are we absolutely sure that it is?

Have you read any news reports of Georgian planes bombing Russian cities? Has Georgia deployed troops into Russian territory?

Squire wrote:

Until it is clearer why this started it is pointless to attribute blame. There are no angels in this one and all the players have possible dubious motives.

Undoubtedly.

My opinion is that with the last Russian gone from Georgian soil proper just this last year, the Georgians decided on making a move to reintegrate South Ossetia. There isn't a hope in hell that they were going to defeat the Russians militarily but by orchestrating a Russian over-reaction to a Georgian military move, they hope to get the UN and the US onside to force the Russians out of South Ossetia, perhaps making it a UN protectorate like Kosovo but with the opposite outcome as regards independence. A Nato or EU force in South Ossetia would be more acceptable to the Georgians. Russia naturally obliged, bombed Georgian civilian targets, reportedly tried to bomb the BTC oil pipeline and is now pissing off everybody by blockading the oil exporting Black Sea ports. I'd like to see the UN mandate that authorised all that, but that's by the way. If all the Georgian Christmases arrive at once the Reds will move back into Georgia proper, forcinga Nato response. I think we can forget about a UN response, that organisaion has once more proven to be a sad joke in an emergency.

meanwhile Russian "peacekeeping" efforts are reported to be spreading;

Quote :

10 Aug 2008 11:38:38 GMT
Source: Reuters


(Adds details)
TBILISI, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Russia has started an operation to storm the Georgian-controlled Kodori gorge in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, the Georgian Interior Ministry said on Sunday.
Separatist authorities in Abkhazia said earlier they had sent 1,000 troops to the gorge, which Georgian forces control as a strategic foothold in the breakaway Black Sea territory.
Georgia says Russia has sent troops and artillery into Abkhazia.
"They have started the operation to storm Kodori gorge," said Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili. Asked who was behind the operation, he replied: "The Russian army."
The United Nations, which has international monitors in the area, had warned of a possible second front opening in the Georgia-Russia conflict, with Russia already pushing Georgian forces from breakaway South Ossetia.
Georgia has police stationed in the gorge, protecting a parallel pro-Tbilisi Abkhazian government.
"The operation has started," said government spokesman Raul Kiria. "The evacuation of residents is under way. Our government officials are at their posts."
Like South Ossetia, Abkhazia broke away for Georgian control in the early 1990s. (Reporting by Margarita Antidze; writing by Matt Robinson; editing by Mary Gabriel)

I wonder where the Sixth Fleet is today?

Lestat wrote:

Squire wrote:

This is being framed as Russian aggression, but are we absolutely sure that it is?

Have you read any news reports of Georgian planes bombing Russian cities? Has Georgia deployed troops into Russian territory?

Squire wrote:

Until it is clearer why this started it is pointless to attribute blame. There are no angels in this one and all the players have possible dubious motives.

Undoubtedly.

My opinion is that with the last Russian gone from Georgian soil proper just this last year, the Georgians decided on making a move to reintegrate South Ossetia. There isn't a hope in hell that they were going to defeat the Russians militarily but by orchestrating a Russian over-reaction to a Georgian military move, they hope to get the UN and the US onside to force the Russians out of South Ossetia, perhaps making it a UN protectorate like Kosovo but with the opposite outcome as regards independence. A Nato or EU force in South Ossetia would be more acceptable to the Georgians. Russia naturally obliged, bombed Georgian civilian targets, reportedly tried to bomb the BTC oil pipeline and is now pissing off everybody by blockading the oil exporting Black Sea ports. I'd like to see the UN mandate that authorised all that, but that's by the way. If all the Georgian Christmases arrive at once the Reds will move back into Georgia proper, forcinga Nato response. I think we can forget about a UN response, that organisaion has once more proven to be a sad joke in an emergency.

meanwhile Russian "peacekeeping" efforts are reported to be spreading;

Quote :

10 Aug 2008 11:38:38 GMT
Source: Reuters


(Adds details)
TBILISI, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Russia has started an operation to storm the Georgian-controlled Kodori gorge in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, the Georgian Interior Ministry said on Sunday.
Separatist authorities in Abkhazia said earlier they had sent 1,000 troops to the gorge, which Georgian forces control as a strategic foothold in the breakaway Black Sea territory.
Georgia says Russia has sent troops and artillery into Abkhazia.
"They have started the operation to storm Kodori gorge," said Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili. Asked who was behind the operation, he replied: "The Russian army."
The United Nations, which has international monitors in the area, had warned of a possible second front opening in the Georgia-Russia conflict, with Russia already pushing Georgian forces from breakaway South Ossetia.
Georgia has police stationed in the gorge, protecting a parallel pro-Tbilisi Abkhazian government.
"The operation has started," said government spokesman Raul Kiria. "The evacuation of residents is under way. Our government officials are at their posts."
Like South Ossetia, Abkhazia broke away for Georgian control in the early 1990s. (Reporting by Margarita Antidze; writing by Matt Robinson; editing by Mary Gabriel)

I wonder where the Sixth Fleet is today?

What was it that drove the last Russian from Georgian soil proper??

Slim Buddha wrote:

What was it that drove the last Russian from Georgian soil proper??

A treaty, I suppose. Russia still had a few military bases in the country.

God Bless Wikipedia and Google.

The last Russian base in Georgia was in Batumi on the Black Sea coast. Handed over in November 2007.

Quote :

12th Russian military base in Batumi was officially handed over to Georgia on November 13, ahead of planned schedule.

Originally the process was planned to be completed in a course of 2008, according to the agreement reached between Georgia and Russia in 2005.
A document on hand over of the base was signed by Batu Kutelia, the first deputy defense minister of Georgia and commander of the Group of Russian Forces in the Transcaucasus (GRVZ) Andrei Popov.
“All those facilities, which were occupied by the Russian military units, were transferred to the Georgian armed forces, while their remaining equipment, servicemen and staff are in the process of departure and the process will end in next several days,” Batu Kutelia told the Georgian Public Broadcaster.

[url=http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=16321

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=16321[/quote[/url]]

Quote :

Georgia and Russia signed on March 31 two agreements – one on the pullout of the Russian bases from Batumi and Akhalkalaki and the other giving access to Russian military cargo via Georgia. While the provisions of the first treaty have already become public, the treaty over military transit remains unavailable.

Bases Pullout

The agreement on the pullout of the Russian bases was described by President Saakashvili on April 3 as “historic” and “a victory of Georgia’s constructive diplomacy.” Although Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili also hailed the agreement on March 31, he noted that Georgia compromised on certain issues, including the timeframe of the withdrawal.

The agreement over the withdrawal of the Russian bases is mainly based on a joint declaration signed between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and ex-Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili in May, 2005 and envisages the withdrawal of Russian bases in the course of 2008.
“We have compromised while giving our consent to Russia to withdraw its military bases within three years, because actually such a long term is not necessary, but we have accepted the arguments submitted by the Russian side,” Okruashvili said at a news conference on March 31.
Okruashvili also said that although Russia has already formally transferred the communications relay facility in Kojori and the firing ground in Gonio, Tbilisi agreed to use these facilities jointly with Russia until a complete withdrawal of the Russian bases from Georgia. The joint declaration signed by the Foreign Ministers last May did not envisage the joint use of these facilities.
But while speaking about “Georgia’s compromises” Okruashvili said nothing about a provision which refers to the creation of a joint Georgia-Russian Anti-Terrorist Center.
According to the agreement, Georgia and Russia “at the earliest possible time, shall complete the elaboration of an Agreement on the Foundation and Functioning of a Georgian-Russian Antiterrorist Center and shall prepare it for signing.”
Part of the personnel, material-technical resources and infrastructure of the Russian military base in Batumi should be used for the creation of this Center, according to the agreement.
Opponents have already described this provision as a major compromise by the Georgian side. “It means the presence of a well-equipped and well-trained unit of the Russian special services [on the Georgian territory], which will be able to control the political situation in the country,” MP Pikria Chikhradze, from the opposition New Rights party, said during televised comments on April 4.
According to the agreement, the withdrawal of the military base from Batumi, as well as the Tbilisi-based Headquarters of the Group of Russian Troops in Trans-Caucasus, should be completed in a course of 2008, while the Akhalkalaki military base should be withdrawn no later than December, 31, 2007.
To assist with the withdrawal process, Georgia will allow Russia to use its airspace, as well as will carry out a shipment of armaments, military equipment and other material resources by railway and road.
A joint Georgian-Russian Joint Commission will be created in Tbilisi to control and monitor the implementation of the provisions set forth in the agreement.
“The present Agreement shall be provisionally used from the date of its signing and shall enter into force upon the exchange of notifications on the fulfillment of necessary interstate procedures by the Parties,” the agreement reads.
Mikhail Svirin, a spokesman of the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi, said that this agreement, as is the case will all interstate agreements, needs ratification, but an agreement has already been reached over the implementation of the provisions of this agreement.
“As a result of constructive dialogue between the sides, an agreement has been reached to implement the provisions set by this agreement [over the pullout of the bases]. Now only intrerstate procedures are left to be carried out by the sides,” Mikhail Svirin told Civil Georgia.
Military Transit
The agreement over the bases’ pullout was posted on the Georgian Defense Ministry’s web-site in both Georgian and English shortly after it was signed on March 31, while the other treaty which was signed between the two countries on the same day has not yet been made public. The treaty was not available at the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi either.
Irakli Okruashvili said on March 31 that “the Georgian side definitely compromised” by giving its consent on an agreement over the transit of Russian military personnel and cargo that will enable Russia to gain access to its military base in Gyumri, Armenia via Georgia.

“The transit of Russian military bases to Armenia via Azerbaijan or Turkey is impossible because of well known reasons and, naturally, the only way lies through Georgia... However, this does not mean that we can appear in the situation, when the transit of any cargo via Georgia will pose a threat to the region,” Okruashvili said.
Russian media sources reported some details of this agreement in early March, when the document was discussed by the Russian government.
According to these reports, the five–year agreement obliges Russia to not transfer any armament transited through the Georgian territory to a third country. The amount of military cargo that will be transited via Georgia will be agreed between Russia and Georgia one year in advance.
Russia also undertakes the commitment not to transit biological, nuclear or chemical substances, as well as weapon of mass destruction or their components.
According to Russian sources, Georgia can refuse the transit of items if the movement of the military cargo poses a threat to its national security or if the final destination of the transited military cargo is a location within a conflict zone or a warring state.

Related
Full Text: Agreement on Russian Bases' Pullout
Moscow Submits 2006 Schedule of Military Bases’ Withdrawal
Saakashvili Hails Base Pullout Treaty with Russia
Okruashvili: Military Treaties with Russia a Compromise
Putin Approves Military Transit Agreement with Georgia
Okruashvili: Arms Delivered to S.Ossetia from Russian Base
Russo-Georgian Joint Declaration on Bases

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=12256

Thanks for that Lestat. I guess there are still a lot of non-military Russians there or else this wouldn't be happening.

Quote :

Saakashvili seems to be none too secure at home in that there have been ongoing mass demonstrations by Georgian oppositionists against globalisation put down with tear gass and beatings. This exercise with general mobilisation of the reserve is a nice distraction.

He was either US backed in this or else thought he would nail it quickly take control of South Ossetia in a quick move before trying to get into NATO next year.
Either way, Russia appear to have been dragged into this.

I agree with those who say that Georgia's intention of joining NATO along with Kosovo's US backed "independence" has led directly to the war in Georgia. Both moves are perceived by Russia as agressive and I would be inclined to agree that they are. Georgia's government presumably hoped that a quick smash and grab raid would allow it to claim that there was no conflict in the country and get NATO membership. Russia might have given mixed messages as apparently relations between Russia and the South Ossetian government has been luke warm of late. The EU having used the ongoing disputes over South Ossetia and Abkhavia as reasons for excluding Georgia from NATO may have come into play too.

Much of the reporting of this on both sides is pure propoganda and it is difficult to get anything like a real picture. One side is showing pictures of civilian dead and injured resulting from Russian bombing and the other side is showing the same results of Georgian bombing of the South Ossetian capital. But no serious commentator seems to dispute that the current war started as a result of Saakashvili sending the Georgian army in to South Ossetia and launching a massive attack on the capital. Russia has responded with a "shot across the bow of NATO", bombing a Georgian Black Sea port, bombing at the Abkhavian border and bombing Tiblisi's airport. Just like in the Stalinst USSR, there is no Russian concession to the lives and the welfare of the Georgian people, many of whom are actively organising opposition to Saakashvili both in South Ossetia and "Georgia proper".

The underlying conflict to keep an eye on here is between the US and "old Europe" - France, Germany and the UK. Georgia would not have moved without the nod from Bush's government.The US wants the Balkanisation of Europe under US control reeling in the Eastern european states to its ambit. Rumsfeld, when asked by a reporter about European criticism of the Bush administration’s drive toward war in Iraq replied, “You’re thinking of Europe as Germany and France. I don’t. I think that’s old Europe. You look at the vast numbers of other countries in Europe. They’re not with France and Germany on this. They’re with the United States.”

It is the expressed aim of the US government to create its own special sphere of influence in Europe, in direct opposition to France and Germany. Kosovo needs to be seen in that context. Rumsfeld has promoted the expansion of NATO to the east — with the inclusion of weak former Warsaw Pact states that are easily manipulated by the United States—as a means of undercutting French and German influence in Europe. Poland and Georgia are now US allies. The Iraq war dislodged substantial French oil interests from Iraq and US pressure is now on Iran, that is an important supplier to "old Europe". US military interests are focused both on oilfields and also on the main oil pipelines crossing Afghanistan and Georgia.

The worse a state the US economy is in, the more ready is the US government to use military power to protect and promote its global interests. It is putting together the jigsaw puzzle pieces spelled out in the "Rebuilding America's Defenses" - Project for the New Millenium - piece by piece.

Part 2 - Project for a New American Century

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf

Text of "Rebuilding America's Defenses" (PNAC) here.