A Shot Across Nato's Bows - Russian tanks enter Georgia - Georgians enter South Ossetia - all out war?

[img]https://i.servimg.com/u/f31/12/11/69/12/georgi12.jpg[img]

To carry on our 'Russia's trying to take over the World' theme, here's an interesting report from Al Jazeera. I go to to them for a little colour on occassion and because I like their site. Russian 'annexation' angers Georgia

Those pesky Russians have been supporting de facto authorites in Georgia's breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia, prompting allegations of de facto annexation of the troublesome provinces.
(Map from BBC's report here)

Both regions broke away from Georgia in the nineties but are still claimed by Tbilisi. What has changed since then? Well, Russia claimed that if Kosovo was recognised internationally it would respond in like manner (but setting a dangerous precedent for Chechnya). Also Nato has recently agreed to allow Georgia to join up at some point, furthering the encroachment of Nato on Russia's old stoping ground.

In Russia's defence, the precedence was set in Kossovo. De facto situations always have to be taken into account, even by Georgia. Unlike Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not recognised de jure anywhere (yet). Nato and Europe's response (Solana is 'concerned') seem a bit hypocritical.

This is interesting (to me anyway) because it's one of these 'flash-points', along which World War Three is always expected to break out. Nato borders Russia along the Baltic countries too, but her grip there was always weaker than in deep Caucasia, where the bear still jealously guards her (former) domain.

There is another (related ?) thread HERE on ETA. Kosovo has also been in the news recently and it seems that it may be a bit of a trend that old regimes are breaking up all over the place. In the states recently we've had the Lakota news i.e. an indian group wants to form an independent nation-state there and we've also had the American threads on the crowd with their own communities in New England.

Even at home in England and Ireland there's talk of Scottish Independence and NI staying independent and all sorts of stuff. Could there be a trend in it?

And how does a community go about seceding from the main in the first place? Would Munster have to make an application to the UN or what? Or is all that it would take is 51% of the people here to want to split off from the rest before we'd be allowed?

The trouble is international recognition, isn't it? Those parts of Russia are tender areas that they wouldn't want Nato anywhere near, really. But when does the UN recognise them if a group - a nation - wants to form it's own state? And if the UN recognises a new state is it obliged to defend that state after?

Nato stands for North Atlantic Treaty Alliance as we all know. Ossetia looks to be quite a distance from the Atlantic. McCain wants to bring Georgia into Nato. They are devoid of reality. The American public have no idea of anything but to understand why Europeans, who are many levels higher, believe or vote for the likes of Merkel is beyond me. They talk of the EU being the next Superpower even when Putin can turn off the gas at any time. I wonder whether The EU has any future at all. They are 400 million and have less military muscle than Bangladesh. The spineless Dutch or was it the Belgiums stood around like gobshythes as the civilians were massacred right under their snouts when they were foolish enough to run to them for safty.

It`s a different sort of a power that Europe displays Young Dan. Europe is like quicksand sucking people in and not letting them go. Countries all over the world have been drawn into the European sphere of influence with very little trouble to Europe. Compare that to the antagonistic relationship america has with many of the people of the world. (not necessarily their governments). Military power is over rated. Economic power is much more influential. One day Serbia will join the EU. Do you think that they will fight over Kosovo or the Bosnian Serb Republic when they are in Europe? Not a chance.

The question of when is group of people big enough to be a state has been around for a long time and will be around for a lot longer. I doubt there is any country that doesn't have some sort of boundry dispute on the go. From the little I know of the situation in Ossetia and Abkhazia the locals have no desire to be Georgian, but historically they are Georgian lands (inso far as the collection of small Khanates around there could be called a country). So its people versus history, an old old debate. On the basis of NI and Kosova its Russias win, but nothing is ever that clear cut.

YD, I don't quite get your point above. You give out about NATO, and its expansion, about the potential weakness of the EU militarily, and how the EU shouldn't piss off Russia etc, and then say "but to understand why Europeans, who are many levels higher, believe or vote for the likes of Merkel is beyond me." Merkel is the one national leader in the EU that encapsulates your position, pretty much on every point. She is the main obstacle to both Ukraine and Georgia joining the EU.

Well I am first to admit if I am wrong about Merkel. If she is against Nato enlargement at least that is a bit of common sense. From my viewpoint it makes no sense whatsoever to put our necks on the chopping block for places than have zero impact on the US. I dislike Merkel when I see that she is preaching in Ireland for a yes vote. It also does not help that she looks like Madeline Albright. My point is that the Eopopeans should not be pissing off the Russians because the reality is they have zilch military leverage and have no economic strenght whatsoever because Putin has them over a barrel. All it took yesterday was for a report of a drop in Russian oil supplies to put oil over 115 dollars. Today T Boone Pickens says oil in going to 125 shortly. While reality is obvious we still have fantasy being discussed. I hope the Ossetians gain independence of the Georgians and the Russians. Anmajornarthainig2 I fear that you may be taken in by a very utopian viewpoint. If the Serbians joines the EU or Nato who recently bombed them for 78 days then I will stand on my head. Mao was correct when he said that all power comes from the barrell of a gun. The Serbian who may have forgotten this learned quickly whin the first 5000 lb bomb came down the chimney. 78 days with hundreds of sorties each day dropping who knows how many bombs each sortie. To think the Serbians consider Nato friends is stretching it a bit

You don`t think that Serbia will join the EU Youngdan? I think they will but I wouldn`t expect them to join NATO. I`d expect them to join the EU within 10/15 years but with much soul searching within Serbian life about whether they want to be closer to Russia or to the West.

global arms expenditure US EU Russia

Russia is under pressure and trying to buffer around the edges.

Is Kosova a liberation issue, or a large NATO base??

I do not know and would listen to opinions there for a better read but I would guess that they hate those that bombed them. They will stick with Russia who is likely to be dominant

Russia warned over Georgia move (by Nato) What's going on? Is Russia about to punish Georgia if Georgia invades its two breakaway republics? Could Nato get involved in this? Wtf will happen next?

Auditor #9 wrote:

Russia warned over Georgia move (by Nato) What's going on? Is Russia about to punish Georgia if Georgia invades its two breakaway republics? Could Nato get involved in this? Wtf will happen next?

Oil at $150 p/bbl, I'd imagine. This could all be a scheme cooked up by Russian oil barons to rachet up the oil price.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Russia warned over Georgia move (by Nato) What's going on? Is Russia about to punish Georgia if Georgia invades its two breakaway republics? Could Nato get involved in this? Wtf will happen next?

First, we have no independent confirmation that Georgia is about to attack Abkhazia (Ossetia looks fine for now). The Russians said they are ammassing troops on the border, if it were tue I'd expect someone else would have mentioned it. So it's probably not about punishment, it's more about Russia putting pressure on Georgia. Russia claims that it hasn't done anything wrong. There's a limit on how many troops Russia can have in the area but they say they haven't overstepped the quota.

I doubt Georgia would try anything. It would give Russia a good excuse to annex Abkhazia in a manner similar (as they would ssee it) to Kosovo's annexation by the West. Georgia is not a Nato member. We would have no obligation, and Georgia can't seriously expect us to, respond to any aggression from Russia. The only basis for action on our part would be concern over oil supplies, which we hope to get from Georgia in the future.

The old bear has risen from its slumber it seems. It has also emerged that RAF fighters had to intercept 21 Russian military planes last year alone. The did not enter UK airspace, but they did end the APA or nato policing zone. Is this a final flurry for Mr Putin, or an indication of the policy direction of Mr Medvedev when he acceeds the throne.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm

This is the most serious muscle flexing to date. It is notable that it is Putin who announced that action would be taken. Is he the one really calling the shots?

Quote :

Russian tanks are moving towards the capital of
Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia, which has been under
heavy bombardment from Georgian forces.
Georgian President Mikhail Saakasvili said 150 Russian tanks and other vehicles had entered South Ossetia.
Georgia is reported to have said any involvement of Russian
forces in the conflict will result in a state of war between the two
countries.
Russia says it is sending reinforcements to support peacekeepers.
Reports from Georgia claim Russian jets have attacked an airport near Tbilisi.
Nato, the US and the EU have all called for an immediate end to hostilities.
At least 15 civilians are reported dead, as well as several Russian peacekeepers based in Tskhinvali.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm

It seems Russia has launched a full scale war on Georgia.

Skiploads of propagandists being rolled out on the News channels.

Ethnic cleansing carried out in South Ossetia claim the Russians

Warplane attacks near Tblisi.

2 Russian aircraft shot down.

Have the Russians used the cover of the Olympic games? Will Putin be on the blower from the stadium directing traffic?

Fáilte ar ais a Sheathrún.

Merging this thread with one already here.

Kate P wrote:

Fáilte ar ais a Sheathrún.

Merging this thread with one already here.

Oooohhhhh wonder which one of us got in first

johnfás wrote:

Threads merged

Cheers. Was on the blower myself before I pressed 'send'. Maith an fear

You did. Your post is directly after Zhou's.

Seathrún wrote

Quote :

Have the Russians used the cover of the Olympic games?

Putin is in Beijing where he made his announcement this morning that Russia would take action. Wonder what time the first moves were made - 0808 on 080808?

Brilliant strategising if they did, but obviously very, very worrying.

johnfás wrote:

Kate P wrote:

Fáilte ar ais a Sheathrún.

Merging this thread with one already here.

Oooohhhhh wonder which one of us got in first

It wor you johnfás by nine minutes

It will be interesting to see what role Nato will have to play in this. Georgia was an applicant, and was party to many institutions, such as partnership for peace, which are Nato lead. Indeed, Georgia felt that Russia's propping up of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was to prevent any further integration with Nato. Abkhazia and North Ossetia are also thought currently to be sending fighters to the rebel region. I'm not well up on the situation myself, but would there be cause to say that Georgia could become the next chechnya?

riadach wrote:

It will be interesting to see what role Nato will have to play in this. Georgia was an applicant, and was party to many institutions, such as partnership for peace, which are Nato lead. Indeed, Georgia felt that Russia's propping up of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was to prevent any further integration with Nato. Abkhazia and North Ossetia are also thought currently to be sending fighters to the rebel region. I'm not well up on the situation myself, but would there be cause to say that Georgia could become the next chechnya?

It certainly is heading that way. We will be in for a detailed Geography lesson of the region in the months to come.

But then Russia has a lot of Europe by the magairlí over an oil barrel

Russia historically is not given to invading distant foreign parts but to acting with full force to create a buffer zone around her borders. The pressure is on from the US and NATO. The creation and recognition of Kosova which the Russians describe as a Nato base along with the US plans for an anti-ballistic missile shield across eastern europe is perceived by the Russians as deeply agressive.