Dublin South By-Election

A by election will take place in the constituencey of Dublin South due to the death of former cabinet Minister Séamus Brennan T.D.

Any news/comments/predictions on this election please post it here.

Fiona O'Malley throws her hat in.

I'm surprised at that really, I though Liz O'Donnell would have a go.


Here's the results for DS at the last election.

ElectionsIreland.org 30th Dail

There were 2 by-elections during the 29th Dáil:
Kildare North - Charlie McCreevy . Seat won by Cathereine Murphy - Independant
Meath - John Bruton. Seat won by Shane McEntee Fine Gael.

I'm putting my money on Alex White (Labour) for this one if he can beat Aidan Culhane in the selection.

I don't think Fiona O'Malley has a chance to be perfectly honest. I think she is a very poor politician who was found wanting, not just because of a decline in the fortunes of her party. I have also found that she is a very peculiar character.

johnfás wrote:

I don't think Fiona O'Malley has a chance to be perfectly honest. I think she is a very poor politician who was found wanting, not just because of a decline in the fortunes of her party. I have also found that she is a very peculiar character.

Agreed.

It should be an interesting election. I expect that it will be a fight between FF and Labour. The Greens and FG are unlikely to field particularly strong candidates for local reasons. A government party has not won a by-election since 1982 but a lot will depend on whether Seamus Brennan's son is put on the ticket.

I agree with all of that johnfás.

I have also just heard some phone speculation that she may not want to contest due to the progressive wipeout of the PDs, and that she may be running for FF in the next GE.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

I agree with all of that johnfás.

I have also just heard some phone speculation that she may not want to contest due to the progressive wipeout of the PDs, and that she may be running for FF in the next GE.

A lot will depend on how far away the by-election is I suppose. There is some speculation on p.ie that it will be held back until after the locals which strikes me as very late. If that was the case, the PDs may simply not be around. Personally, I can't imagine FOM getting the nod on any Dublin based FF ticket.

Yea, if I were a betting man I would back Alex White. If Seamus Brennan's son stands and I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet.

Interesting situation in Dublin South now to be honest. There is a strong core of voters in the constituency who are most certainly not Fianna Fáil. Despite this, there are/were two very strong Fianna Fáil constituency machines and constituency workers in the form of Brennan and Kitt. Having gone to school in that constituency, the vast majority of my friends live in it. None of them would be Fianna Fáil voters, but they would all recognise the local contribution made by the two Fianna Fáil deputies in the constituency who most certainly worked for the constituency, perhaps more so than the Fine Gael deputies and particularly more so than one of the Fine Gael deputies.

Take away those constituency machines and it will be interesting to see what happens, not just in this byelection but thereafter.

johnfás wrote:

Yea, if I were a betting man I would back Alex White. If Seamus Brennan's stands and I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet.

Interesting situation in Dublin South now to be honest. There is a strong core of voters in the constituency who are most certainly not Fianna Fáil. Despite this, there are/were two very strong Fianna Fáil constituency machines and constituency workers in the form of Brennan and Kitt. Having gone to school in that constituency, the vast majority of my friends live in it. None of them would be Fianna Fáil voters, but they would all recognise the local contribution made by the two Fianna Fáil deputies in the constituency who most certainly worked for the constituency, perhaps more so than the Fine Gael deputies and particularly more so than one of the Fine Gael deputies.

Take away those constituency machines and it will be interesting to see what happens, not just in this byelection but thereafter.

You're absolutely right. It is quite a volatile constituency yet there were two formidable FF candidates with an incredibly strong constituency machine. My Grandparents live there and while they are strong critics of FF, they always gave Seamus Brennan a No.2 because they found him extremely helpful and a good constituency man. As you say, it will be very interesting to see what happens next time out when Kitt and Brennan are not on the ticket.

I didn't know Kitt wasn't going to be there next time out . What's the story with that ?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

I didn't know Kitt wasn't going to be there next time out . What's the story with that ?

He announced it following his dropping from the cabinet when Cowen came in as Taoiseach. One would presume that he did so owing to his demotion, but there are always the possibilities of other reasons as well. His youngest son will be just finished secondary school in a year or so, maybe he just wants to retire and took the opportunity!

He announced that he wouldn't be contesting the next General Election after he was overlooked for promotion to the Cabinet.

If I was a betting man and I am I would wager that this Kitt is a very sharp man. I would go out on a limb and predict that there will be about 20 FF TDs that will break to form a new party. Put a few pound on that.

youngdan wrote:

If I was a betting man and I am I would wager that this Kitt is a very sharp man. I would go out on a limb and predict that there will be about 20 FF TDs that will break to form a new party. Put a few pound on that.

Thats an interesting prediction. What makes you think that?

unaligned wrote:

youngdan wrote:

If I was a betting man and I am I would wager that this Kitt is a very sharp man. I would go out on a limb and predict that there will be about 20 FF TDs that will break to form a new party. Put a few pound on that.

Thats an interesting prediction. What makes you think that?

It is indeed interesting. Yet their fate has a precedent in the PDs. So I would consider it very unlikely. Not that I wouldn't bet on it though

unaligned wrote:

johnfás wrote:

Yea, if I were a betting man I would back Alex White. If Seamus Brennan's stands and I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet.

Interesting situation in Dublin South now to be honest. There is a strong core of voters in the constituency who are most certainly not Fianna Fáil. Despite this, there are/were two very strong Fianna Fáil constituency machines and constituency workers in the form of Brennan and Kitt. Having gone to school in that constituency, the vast majority of my friends live in it. None of them would be Fianna Fáil voters, but they would all recognise the local contribution made by the two Fianna Fáil deputies in the constituency who most certainly worked for the constituency, perhaps more so than the Fine Gael deputies and particularly more so than one of the Fine Gael deputies.

Take away those constituency machines and it will be interesting to see what happens, not just in this byelection but thereafter.

You're absolutely right. It is quite a volatile constituency yet there were two formidable FF candidates with an incredibly strong constituency machine. My Grandparents live there and while they are strong critics of FF, they always gave Seamus Brennan a No.2 because they found him extremely helpful and a good constituency man. As you say, it will be very interesting to see what happens next time out when Kitt and Brennan are not on the ticket.

The fact that there are two serious machines in situ means that FF would do well to select people who will have the loyalty of those machines. Parachuting in Fiona O'Malley could well alienate the people who previously came out to canvass for Kitt and Brennan.

Maria Corrigan will be selected for FF for any by-election unless one of Seamus Brennan's children decide to run. If Corrigan is selected and ends up running against O'Malley then it will become a very important contest for Corrigan as she will be untouchable if she beats O'Mally but severely weakened if O'Malley polls higher than her and the PDs are subsequently scrapped.

They will be looking at what is happening in Britain with Labour. They will really pay attention after the next election. Labour could end up with zero seats. This happened in Canada a few years back when the ruling party were left with one seat.
Survival will depend on getting off the Titanic as soon as possible. FF are somewhat lacking in chivalry so it will not be a case of women and children first but every rat for themselves.

They will see that there is already talk of a new party and they know that if some group grabs the lifeboat first they will be screwed. So what has Kitt to lose. He see himself as Taoiseach so get his siblings, a few more rats, the PD supporters, unhappy Greens and the always to be counted on anti immigration segment and away with them. I doubt if they would be worried about FG who would disappear as soon as an alternative was available.

This by election is the ideal chance for an independent to run on the promise of forming a new party. If the electorate are as thick as they are here he can run on a promise of change. Works here every time.

youngdan wrote:

They will be looking at what is happening in Britain with Labour. They will really pay attention after the next election. Labour could end up with zero seats. This happened in Canada a few years back when the ruling party were left with one seat.
Survival will depend on getting off the Titanic as soon as possible. FF are somewhat lacking in chivalry so it will not be a case of women and children first but every rat for themselves.

They will see that there is already talk of a new party and they know that if some group grabs the lifeboat first they will be screwed. So what has Kitt to lose. He see himself as Taoiseach so get his siblings, a few more rats, the PD supporters, unhappy Greens and the always to be counted on anti immigration segment and away with them. I doubt if they would be worried about FG who would disappear as soon as an alternative was available.

This by election is the ideal chance for an independent to run on the promise of forming a new party. If the electorate are as thick as they are here he can run on a promise of change. Works here every time.

Very interesting but (in my opinion) incredibly unlikely.

There is little value to be gained in making comparisons between Ireland and other jurisdictions when it comes to political trends. In fact, a lot of political science literature will extensively refer to Ireland as an anomaly in the context of political study. In any other country I think that comparing FF to the Titanic would be entirely valid. Look at the recent poll though, FF riding high on 40%. An extremely bad day at the office for Fianna Fail at a General Election would be between 35-38%. I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that they will drop below that any time soon. FF Ministers could spend the next twelve months sitting in their offices, spinning happily on their chairs and I still struggle to imagine any of them losing their seat.

I think your other point is very interesting. It would be an excellent time for an independent to fly a kite regarding a new party. It would also be a great constituency to do it in.

It will take a major shock to the most vunnerable part of the body to shake the faithfull. And we know what the most vunnerable part is. Your Wallet

youngdan wrote:

It will take a major shock to the most vunnerable part of the body to shake the faithfull. And we know what the most vunnerable part is. Your Wallet

This may be so. But the above analysis which says this will not happen is on the ball. If you look at an historical overview of Irish voting patterns, such as Irish Voters Decide by Richard Sinnott you will see just how unlikely it is to happen. Fianna Fáil, and indeed Fine Gael, are ingrained into many many families in this country. A capitulation of Fianna Fáil just simply will not happen. They may well lose power at the next general election, but they will certainly not collapse and they will most likely still be the largest party.

----

In regard to Corrigan v O'Malley - seriously it is a non runner. O'Malley doesn't stand a chance, she is finished. She doesn't have the personality or political profile to overcome all the barriers that are in her way to winning a seat again.

Corrigan is a hard worker, is well in with the guys at the top and has a decent local organisation. However, she is not exactly Dublin South's answer to Peter Ustinov/JFK. I would expect Fiona O'Malley to give her a run for her money. Also, I would expect FO'M and the PDs to go all out to use the bye-election as a publicity opportunity. FO'M has shown a willingness to go off-script that keeps the pol-corrs interested. Maria Corrigan is more disciplined and less spontaneous and so she may not get as much attention.

unaligned wrote:

johnfás wrote:

I don't think Fiona O'Malley has a chance to be perfectly honest. I think she is a very poor politician who was found wanting, not just because of a decline in the fortunes of her party. I have also found that she is a very peculiar character.

Agreed.

It should be an interesting election. I expect that it will be a fight between FF and Labour. The Greens and FG are unlikely to field particularly strong candidates for local reasons. A government party has not won a by-election since 1982 but a lot will depend on whether Seamus Brennan's son is put on the ticket.

Couldn't they just make a clone from his DNA ?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

unaligned wrote:

youngdan wrote:

If I was a betting man and I am I would wager that this Kitt is a very sharp man. I would go out on a limb and predict that there will be about 20 FF TDs that will break to form a new party. Put a few pound on that.

Thats an interesting prediction. What makes you think that?

It is indeed interesting. Yet their fate has a precedent in the PDs. So I would consider it very unlikely. Not that I wouldn't bet on it though

Declan not standing then?

Predicting the future by extrapolating the past only works while everything stays the same. Now everything is about to change. Granted I don't have my ear to the ground but if I had to guess I would say the continued support for FF only reflects the lack of an alternative. Stick a new party in there implying that they are The Real Fianna Fail for the Future and see the results

youngdan wrote:

Predicting the future by extrapolating the past only works while everything stays the same. Now everything is about to change. Granted I don't have my ear to the ground but if I had to guess I would say the continued support for FF only reflects the lack of an alternative. Stick a new party in there implying that they are The Real Fianna Fail for the Future and see the results

I don't think you can definitively say 'everything is about to change'. Economically, perhaps that is true. However, the Irish economy has changed drastically on numerous occasions since Fianna Fáil first came to power in 1932. However, what has not changed throughout that entire period is the virtual pre-eminent position of that particular in Irish politics. That will not change in one election. There is no evidence that it will occur.

We can only wish.

Do any of the Brennans have a public profile as of now ?

I've never heard of any of them having a public profile. Then again, I'm neither a supporter nor do I have any interest in Fianna Fáil. I don't think they have stood for local election or anything like that and they don't have any other form of national profile, be it business or whatever, so far as I know.