Dublin South By-Election

johnfás wrote:

youngdan wrote:

Predicting the future by extrapolating the past only works while everything stays the same. Now everything is about to change. Granted I don't have my ear to the ground but if I had to guess I would say the continued support for FF only reflects the lack of an alternative. Stick a new party in there implying that they are The Real Fianna Fail for the Future and see the results

I don't think you can definitively say 'everything is about to change'. Economically, perhaps that is true. However, the Irish economy has changed drastically on numerous occasions since Fianna Fáil first came to power in 1932. However, what has not changed throughout that entire period is the virtual pre-eminent position of that particular in Irish politics. That will not change in one election. There is no evidence that it will occur.

We can only wish.

Exactly. Fianna Fáil was returned on a number of ocassions in the 50s and the 80s when the economy was at a very low ebb, emigration was rampant, unemployment everywhere and inflation out of control. If the Fianna Fáil party can win in those conditions and on a repeated basis, they can win now and forever more into time immemorial. Irish politics is all about organisation and localism. Fianna Fáil have that down to a fine art. They are not to be pushed aside, they will remain Ireland's largest party for the future, it is inevitable.

I'll be surprised if FF don't take this seat.

Squire wrote:

I'll be surprised if FF don't take this seat.

Are they definite about the timing yet? I heard they could long-finger it into next Spring if they wanted. Is this going to occur in September or something?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Squire wrote:

I'll be surprised if FF don't take this seat.

Are they definite about the timing yet? I heard they could long-finger it into next Spring if they wanted. Is this going to occur in September or something?

It can't take place until the Govt. move the writ, which is just an authorisation to allow the election take place. They can drag it out, but that will be met by opposition pressure. As happened in 2005

Any sign of this writ being moved yet ? I suppose not , with the pressure on the Govt. at the moment.
I would like to see a time limitation put on these things to prevent them being abused for electoral ends.

Difficult to put a time limit on them because it always suits the incumbent party to control when it is held so there is no incentive on their part to pass such legislation and they are necessarily in a majority so can block any private member bills which are brought forward. That kind of thing would really have needed to have been addressed in the Constitution.

I'd say the Gov't will hold off on the by-election till the same day as the locals and europeans. It makes sense and will save money.

spillercork wrote:

I'd say the Gov't will hold off on the by-election till the same day as the locals and europeans. It makes sense and will save money.

Hi spillercork. You're very welcome.

If the Gov't had that much sense we wouldn't be in the mess we're in. Still, they may read this thread and take the hint.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Any sign of this writ being moved yet ? I suppose not , with the pressure on the Govt. at the moment.
I would like to see a time limitation put on these things to prevent them being abused for electoral ends.

Labour are saying they will move the writ - the wait has been long enough. Spillercork predicted an election on the day of the Europeans and local elections.
Isn't it time the people of South Dublin had an elected representative.? Or is Spillercork right?

The people of South Dublin have had far too much for far too long, let them wait, like the rest of us.

tonys wrote:

The people of South Dublin have had far too much for far too long, let them wait, like the rest of us.

yes - just because they live iin Dundrum they think theyre better than the rest of us, Right?

The government will do all that it can to stop holding the by-election before the locals and Euros. They know right now they would face a humiliating defeat in a landslide. The Greens have an extra reason to lie down and do what FF wants - with a Green minister there any bad vote for the Greens would put it under pressure so it will do exactly what FF wants.

Neither government party will want to have an early by-election that would be a referendum on the government.

As things stand, with FG rocketing in support and Labour climbing but not as dramatically, one of those is certain to win it, with the odds, based on national support and the baseline support for the parties in the constituency is likely to be Fine Gael with Labour also possible but less likely.

Papal Knight wrote:

The government will do all that it can to stop holding the by-election before the locals and Euros. They know right now they would face a humiliating defeat in a landslide. The Greens have an extra reason to lie down and do what FF wants - with a Green minister there any bad vote for the Greens would put it under pressure so it will do exactly what FF wants.

Neither government party will want to have an early by-election that would be a referendum on the government.

As things stand, with FG rocketing in support and Labour climbing but not as dramatically, one of those is certain to win it, with the odds, based on national support and the baseline support for the parties in the constituency is likely to be Fine Gael with Labour also possible but less likely.

Does a bad bye-election result matter that much? When they happen, isn't it shrugged off with a "that's bye-elections for you"?
I think there is too much lee-way to delay elections. Three - six months is long enough to leave any group without representation.

cactus flower wrote:

Papal Knight wrote:

The government will do all that it can to stop holding the by-election before the locals and Euros. They know right now they would face a humiliating defeat in a landslide. The Greens have an extra reason to lie down and do what FF wants - with a Green minister there any bad vote for the Greens would put it under pressure so it will do exactly what FF wants.

Neither government party will want to have an early by-election that would be a referendum on the government.

As things stand, with FG rocketing in support and Labour climbing but not as dramatically, one of those is certain to win it, with the odds, based on national support and the baseline support for the parties in the constituency is likely to be Fine Gael with Labour also possible but less likely.

Does a bad bye-election result matter that much? When they happen, isn't it shrugged off with a "that's bye-elections for you"?
I think there is too much lee-way to delay elections. Three - six months is long enough to leave any group without representation.

By-election results can matter in some contexts. For example, FF's loss in the Dublin West by-election in 1982 through the Haughey government into massive problems.

The Dublin South by-election would matter this time for a couple of reasons:

- it would be the first election outing for FF post-Bertie in Dublin, and the first election outing for Cowen. A bad defeat would be humiliating as he was not elected in a general election and had not faced an election for the leadership. To lose the first vote (Lisbon) and election battle (Dublin South) would be very damaging.

- it would be the first election battle since the economic collapse so there would be intense media coverage of it.

- a bad result for the Greens would stir up internal controversy and motivate those silent critics to come out and criticise Green performance.

- It would raise issues over Harney if Health was a big issue on the doorsteps.

By-elections matter if they are special, and the first one in a government, the first one for a new taoiseach, etc is always a big deal. And the loss of it would put the government under more pressure by tightening the Dáil voting numbers.

tonys wrote:

The people of South Dublin have had far too much for far too long, let them wait, like the rest of us.

That sounds like the logic behind the ripping up of the Harcourt Street to Bray Railway by Frank Lemass, Sean Lemass and CS "Tod" Andrews, Fianna Fail stalwarts all. Judging by Tod Andrews's own evidence in Dublin Made Me and Man of No Property, it seems that a seething hatred of the "Protestant Solicitors of Carrickmines" was one of the little admitted but major cornerstones of at least some of Fianna Fail's founders.

Ronald Binge wrote:

tonys wrote:

The people of South Dublin have had far too much for far too long, let them wait, like the rest of us.

That sounds like the logic behind the ripping up of the Harcourt Street to Bray Railway by Frank Lemass, Sean Lemass and CS "Tod" Andrews, Fianna Fail stalwarts all. Judging by Tod Andrews's own evidence in Dublin Made Me and Man of No Property, it seems that a seething hatred of the "Protestant Solicitors of Carrickmines" was one of the little admitted but major cornerstones of at least some of Fianna Fail's founders.

Aye, rough times indeed. It’d make your heart cry you’d miss them so.

Not to worry tonys, it looks like An Bord Snip Nua will gladden the hearts of right wing FFers everywhere. It's always a happy Christmas for the Lords of the Doheny and Nesbitt School of Economics, the rest of us will pay for it.

Ronald Binge wrote:

Not to worry tonys, it looks like An Bord Snip Nua will gladden the hearts of right wing FFers everywhere. It's always a happy Christmas for the Lords of the Doheny and Nesbitt School of Economics, the rest of us will pay for it.

For sure we’ll never take your lot on in a game of right wing policies, we know which side our bread is buttered on and are ever so careful about choosing our ground.

tonys wrote:

Ronald Binge wrote:

Not to worry tonys, it looks like An Bord Snip Nua will gladden the hearts of right wing FFers everywhere. It's always a happy Christmas for the Lords of the Doheny and Nesbitt School of Economics, the rest of us will pay for it.

For sure we’ll never take your lot on in a game of right wing policies, we know which side our bread is buttered on and are ever so careful about choosing our ground.

You don't need to, your lot do uncaring and selfish so well that anyone in Irish politics outside of Fianna Fail would be well to the left of you.

A plague on both your houses !!! Is this the choice we have - right wing, or right winger, and it isn't even possible to be sure which is which.

Please read my posts Cactus Flower. I'm no right winger.

Labour to table a motion to move writ.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0130/politics.html

cactus flower wrote:

A plague on both your houses !!! Is this the choice we have - right wing, or right winger, and it isn't even possible to be sure which is which.

Quote :

Please read my posts Cactus Flower. I'm no right winger.

My apologies Ronald, I wasn't referring to you personally, but to the two accursed Main Parties.

That's high time, EVM. What happens next?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Labour to table a motion to move writ.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0130/politics.html

Quote :

Usually the party that held the vacant seat moves the writ, but Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said he was doing so because of the Government's failure to do so after almost seven months.

Any anoraks know how long it normally takes for the by-election?? Is this unusual? I know Brennan was well-respected however.

cactus flower wrote:

spillercork wrote:

I'd say the Gov't will hold off on the by-election till the same day as the locals and europeans. It makes sense and will save money.

Hi spillercork. You're very welcome.

If the Gov't had that much sense we wouldn't be in the mess we're in. Still, they may read this thread and take the hint.

That's a very easy thing to say, but it takes sense to get elected. To say that FF don't have any sense is foolish.