A Shot Across Nato's Bows - Russian tanks enter Georgia - Georgians enter South Ossetia - all out war?

Guest

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4509692.ece

This should end the disagreement on whether the Russians nabbed the town or whether the Georgians still held it

Guest

Squire wrote:: Why not just hold a referendum in those disputed areas and let the outcome decide?

Good idea. Except then there would be a Georgian minority in the Republic of South Ossetia. If the Russians haven't ethnically cleansed them that is. Georgia is a hodge podge of ethnic groupings- Azeris, Armenians and Russians on top of the Abkhaz and Ossetians. Maybe they'll all want their own little statelet. Having set the precedent then, you would have to extend it. Chechyna wants free of Russia, the Kurds of Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Turkey, just south of Georgia has a dozen ethnic groups of a half million or more people, including 1 million Georgians. Let's break up Turkey. North of Georgia in the Russian Federation we've possibly hundreds of little countries waiting to be born. Dagestan looks particularly fertile. That's a lot of referenda.

Squire wrote:: If the people there do not want to be part of Georgia what is the point in trying to force them? Get rid of the problem and get on with life is usually a good policy.

Getting rid of the problem? A final solution to the Caucasian problem perhaps.

Squire wrote:: I am still unclear in my mind as to who exactly started this.

My favourite scapegoat is David the Builder, 1073-1125, who gave the Georgians notions way above their station in life. Laughing

Squire wrote:: No one in their right mind is going to send troops in to support Georgia and Georgian military has no chance of prevailing against Russia.

Yes the Georgians have been decisively defeated just as the Taliban, the Iraqis, the Lebanese and the Viet Cong were decisively hammered before them.

Squire wrote:: Once again Putin plays his cards cleverly and in many way he could be partially right in what he did. Certainly he gave everyone something to think about other than a strike against Iran and the interests Russia has there.

That would be a foolish assumption. For a start the biggest threat to Iran is Israel, not the US (directly at any rate). The Georgians obviously don't matter that much to the Americans, a nuclear-armed Iran matters a great deal. Secondly the Yanks can take the Russians mind off Iran by organising a guerrilla war in northern Georgia and extending it to the separatist movements in the Caucasus.

Guest

And more work for the Hague

Quote :: Georgia files ethnic cleansing suit

By Margarita Antidze in Tbilisi

August 13, 2008 03:08amGEORGIA has filed a law suit against Russia at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for ethnic cleansing, the secretary of Georgia's Security Council, Kakha Lomaia, says.
Separately, International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said he had been contacted about the conflict in Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia and may launch a preliminary investigation.

The ICJ rules on nation versus nation disputes while the ICC was set up to try individuals for serious crimes such as genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. Both courts are based in The Hague in the Netherlands.

"Today, the Georgian ambassador to the Netherlands filed a law suit to the International Court of Justice called 'The state of Georgia against the state of Russia' because of ethnic cleansing conducted in Georgia by Russia in 1993 to 2008," Lomaia said.

Fighting began last Thursday when Georgia sent its forces to retake control of South Ossetia, a pro-Russian province that rejected Georgian rule in the 1990s.

Moscow responded by sending in heavily armed troops, who quickly overwhelmed the Georgian soldiers.

Russia says 1600 South Ossetian civilians have been killed, while Georgia has reported close to 200 killed and hundreds of wounded. Neither set of figures has been independently verified.

The United Nations said on Tuesday that nearly 100,000 people had been driven from their homes.

"We have started to receive communications on this," the ICC's Moreno-Ocampo said.

Asked if he would be launching a preliminary investigation, he said: "It is a possibility." He gave no further details.

The ICC was set up to try genocide and other war crimes where national judicial authorities had failed to investigate such crimes properly.

Moreno-Ocampo caused a diplomatic dispute last month when he asked the court's judges to issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for genocide and war crimes in that country's Darfur region.

A number of countries have said the move is counterproductive and risks derailing an already shaky joint UN-African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24173514-23109,00.html

Guest

A very interesting opinion article in today's Irish Times, from and American source:

Quote :: ...The ascendancy of Mikheil Saakashvili to the Georgian presidency in early 2004 after the Rose Revolution offered a new start for Georgia.

The western-educated Saakashvili set about reform with enormous zeal but with often careless attention to enduring aspects of history and geography.

To his credit, Saakashvili did try to heal the wounds caused by the events of the early 1990s, promising South Ossetia autonomy and appointing an Ossetian to administer the portions of the region controlled by Georgia. However he was impatient and, in pursuing membership of the European Union and, especially, Nato, he showed a reckless disregard for the security concerns of the Russian Federation.

He went further and signed up to send troops to support the US invasion of Iraq. In Washington DC, the Georgian state cultivated neoconservatives and became a darling of the set - plucky little Georgia defying the historic cold war enemy.

The independence of Kosovo in February and the encouragement to Georgia in April that it may eventually join Nato have changed the game in the Caucasus. Russia strengthened its ties to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the local regimes there have been emboldened to confront Georgia.

In provocative situations where abundant caution was required, Saakashvili was impetuous. The results are visible for all to see. Saakashvili and his supporters - who include John McCain whose neocon foreign policy adviser doubles as a lobbyist for the Georgian government - are spinning cold war analogies but these are not playing as they once did in an America preoccupied with economic woes.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/0812/1218477341404.html

Guest

Lestat wrote:

Squire wrote:: Why not just hold a referendum in those disputed areas and let the outcome decide?

Good idea. Except then there would be a Georgian minority in the Republic of South Ossetia. If the Russians haven't ethnically cleansed them that is. Georgia is a hodge podge of ethnic groupings- Azeris, Armenians and Russians on top of the Abkhaz and Ossetians. Maybe they'll all want their own little statelet. Having set the precedent then, you would have to extend it. Chechyna wants free of Russia, the Kurds of Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Turkey, just south of Georgia has a dozen ethnic groups of a half million or more people, including 1 million Georgians. Let's break up Turkey. North of Georgia in the Russian Federation we've possibly hundreds of little countries waiting to be born. Dagestan looks particularly fertile. That's a lot of referenda.

Thats an interesting map Lestat - it does show the complexity of the whole issue in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the absolute curse of nationalism.

Co-incidentally Im currently half way through a very good book on the Treaty of Lausanne and the forced movement/population exchange/ethnic cleansing of peoples at the end of the Greek-Turkish war in 1920-1923. As an individual who spent a good few years living in Greece and the place did get under my skin, yet also who has visited Turkey on many occasions and has Turkish First Cousins - its been an interesting read and it poses a lot of questions.

While the population exchanges were drastic - more than 2 and 1/2 million people uprooted from homes where they had lived for centuries in a matter of weeks and resettled within months and the whole cultures and languages in both countries becoming no more than a fading memories within generations - with the exception of Cyprus - it has stopped Greece and Turkey going to war with each other again and they are slowly becoming comfortable in each others company again - the Cyprus issue again the exception - but even this is cooling off and normality is being restored.

It does pose an interesting question - Are multicultural/ethnic states viable in an age of nationalism? - the signs are not good - I was hoping with the rise of the EU that we were slowly getting over the cancer of nationalism - but recent events would dictate otherwise.

I havent been contributing much here - or anywhere for that matter recently - as I've been getting down to the initial stages of planning Edo's big big Trip provisionally getting under way in January next year - with that also comes the dilemma as to whether I should really be doing this at all - am I running away from something? - should I be buying a house and showing some vague signs of settling down to assuage my mothers nerves? - Hmm - Well given events like that mentioned on this thread, the general uncertain and troubled outlook globally and the feeling of a "Fin de Siecle" atmosphere going around at the moment - well I've decided to plow on and go for it - there might never be another chance as we, as the chinese would put it, are in for interesting times. Better go now before the borders start closing down again. Seeing as my political ideals of a globalised,free trading,open borders and slowly coming together world cleansing itself of nationalism,rampant sectarianism and moving on to address the 21st century without fear are totally redundant at the moment - its time to put them all in deep freeze and head off and leave the rest of yis to deal with the aftermath of Lisbon Very Happy

- well yis did vote for it Very Happy

So seeing as I was intially looking at taking in the Caucuses on the way out East - might have to revise that one now - also better watch my p's and q's if I want to get a long stay multiple entry Russian Visa too!

Guest

A house Edo - are you nuts ? http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?f=161&t=39718 I'm thinking of starting to look at reasonably priced motorhomes myself. Go for the holiday - it's education after all and the world needs the travelled despite what the settled say. They'll break your balls worse than the Russians broke the Georgians balls but you'll live.

I was sort of thinking along the same lines as you when I saw that map and then thought of how Switzerland works very well but would possibly look as fractured and mental as that if all the Cantons were labelled to show the differences. Couldn't there be something healthy in it - smaller political/ethnic units ?

Free Munster Now !!

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Auditor #9 wrote:: A house Edo - are you nuts ? http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?f=161&t=39718 I'm thinking of starting to look at reasonably priced motorhomes myself. Go for the holiday - it's education after all and the world needs the travelled despite what the settled say. They'll break your balls worse than the Russians broke the Georgians balls but you'll live.

I was sort of thinking along the same lines as you when I saw that map and then thought of how Switzerland works very well but would possibly look as fractured and mental as that if all the Cantons were labelled to show the differences. Couldn't there be something healthy in it - smaller political/ethnic units ?

Free Munster Now !!

Well the Swiss have a long long experience of such issues and they are rich (a vital point here - everybody forgets their religion and forgets their neighbours when they think they are loaded and comfortable) and also Switzerland is racially homogeneous - Its grand if you are white -but if you are another colour and not christian - you better be either a diplomat or loaded - Swiss Nationalism is quite exclusive in that regard - witness the rise and rise of extreme nationalists and racialists recently in all the cantons.

that said - I dont think you can equate the two areas - we are talking poles apart here - culturally and historically - we keep forgetting here in the comfortable west how much intellectual political and social evolution we have gone thru and how much of what we take for granted today was forged in the terrible fires of religious and ethnic conflict in the centuries past.

Buy a house? - nah what I meant to say - was build my own house - it would be the most eco-friendly,energy efficient and stylish dwelling place in County Carlow if I ever got around to building it - part Bag End / part Modern Deco with a nod to German and French Influences.

BTW - "Failte Towers" is on the box -mercifully muted - catching the corner of my eye - if there ever was an incentive to get the feck of out of Dodge............ Very Happy

Guest

Edo why does money have to help these integrations or skin colour for that matter? Is it at all worth it if the IMF or UN or whoever could base certain policies on integrating autonomous regions ? Spain already has a bunch of 'Autonomias' and they only manage to set off the odd bomb here and there but maybe it might be bloodless if this nationalism was allowed to prosper somewhat?

The FT thinks Russia was right too

Quote :: For some of those witnessing the fighting in the Caucasus over the past few days, the narrative is straightforward and easy. The plucky republic of Georgia, with just a few million citizens, was attacked by its giant eastern neighbour, Russia. Add to this all the stereotypes of the cold war era, and you are presented with a truly David and Goliath interpretation – with all its accompanying connotations of good and evil. While this version of events is being written in much of the western media, the facts present a different picture.

Let me be absolutely clear. This is not a conflict of Russia’s making; this is not a conflict of Russia’s choosing. There are no winners from this conflict. Hours before the Georgian invasion, Russia had been working to secure a United Nations Security Council statement calling for a renunciation of force by both Georgia and South Ossetians. The statement that could have averted bloodshed was blocked by western countries.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7863e71a-689e-11dd-a4e5-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

And honestly, there was more furore about this than there is about Israel when they bludgeon the Palestinians...

Guest

Good old Euronews is reporting it straight on the television. Perhaps youngdan is right and the EU is turning Red.

Guest

Lestat wrote:

riadach wrote:: Which was precisely my initial point. America can no longer fulfill that ideal role because of her actions since 2001.

But it isn't and never has been an ideal role. I don't like the idea of the US as the World's Policeman, do you? Particularly not now when it appears that the fate of large areas of the planet is dictated by the boards of directors of whichever companies have bought the presidency.

I'm not sure. I do not think individual countries can every have the same impact as one large one. They are undermined by their difference. I think there is room in international relations of a strong power with an ethical foreign policy whose very presence forces unscrupulous countries to tow the line. I'm not saying America filled that ideal, but it is further away from it today than it was pre-2001 That said, I see disadvantages with the role, whose absence I noticed with this conflict. I would have hoped that a country which filled such an ideal, would understand its role was all too important to allow it be derailed by such private interests.

Guest

As the dust settles it seems to me that the Russians acted properly and did only what was necessary. Georgia launched an unprovoked attack and we should be asking for Saakashvili to be prosecuted for war crimes.

Guest

Squire wrote:: As the dust settles it seems to me that the Russians acted properly and did only what was necessary. Georgia launched an unprovoked attack and we should be asking for Saakashvili to be prosecuted for war crimes.

If last nights news footage from Georgia is anything to go by, Saakashvili isn't such a fool as people are making out. He has gone from a very shaky position with mass demonstrations in the street to being a Georgian National Hero. Georgians in South Ossetia were opposed to him too, because of the closure of the market - they are all moved out now. Local politics still matter.

Guest

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:: As the dust settles it seems to me that the Russians acted properly and did only what was necessary. Georgia launched an unprovoked attack and we should be asking for Saakashvili to be prosecuted for war crimes.

If last nights news footage from Georgia is anything to go by, Saakashvili isn't such a fool as people are making out. He has gone from a very shaky position with mass demonstrations in the street to being a Georgian National Hero. Georgians in South Ossetia were opposed to him too, because of the closure of the market - they are all moved out now. Local politics still matter.

I've read around this guy a little bit in the last few days and it strikes me that he is a complete idiot. It seems that he really, truly believed the West might actually come to Georgia's aid. Ignoring the secession based geopolitics for a second, Saakashvili has proved himself to be an enormously inept tactician. He is suffering the consequences now and when the dust settles I suspect the internal support will dissipate into anger.

I have not had the time to fully engage with this issue due to the pressures of work and a looming dissertation submission date. I must say though, I think this thread sums up the difference in machine nation and politics.ie. It really is top class with some fantastic contributions.

Guest

cactus flower wrote:: If last nights news footage from Georgia is anything to go by, Saakashvili isn't such a fool as people are making out. He has gone from a very shaky position with mass demonstrations in the street to being a Georgian National Hero. Georgians in South Ossetia were opposed to him too, because of the closure of the market - they are all moved out now. Local politics still matter.

He is a nasty piece of work and we in the West should be trying to bring him to trial. In the Balkans we have witnessed enough of this myopic vision.

What is it 1600 dead to ensure this miserable little toads political future. Vile. Let us do the decent thing for once.

Guest

Squire wrote:

cactus flower wrote:: If last nights news footage from Georgia is anything to go by, Saakashvili isn't such a fool as people are making out. He has gone from a very shaky position with mass demonstrations in the street to being a Georgian National Hero. Georgians in South Ossetia were opposed to him too, because of the closure of the market - they are all moved out now. Local politics still matter.

He is a nasty piece of work and we in the West should be trying to bring him to trial. In the Balkans we have witnessed enough of this myopic vision.

What is it 1600 dead to ensure this miserable little toads political future. Vile. Let us do the decent thing for once.

What about Condoleeza. Did she give him the nod ?

Guest

That is disgusting, Cactus.

Guest

Kouchner is offering to send in EU troops and, according to a poster on P.ie,
Michael Martin has said the Irish Army should go in.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/World/mhqlmhojkfau/

Guest

cactus flower wrote:: Kouchner is offering to send in EU troops and, according to a poster on P.ie,
Michael Martin has said the Irish Army should go in.

Nope - nothing has been decided - and it will require a UN mandate for anything to go ahead.

Micheal Martin said no such thing.

Peter Power - the Minister of State who attended the emergency meeting in Brussels - said that Ireland would consider sending a Rapid Response Team - no troops involved

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0813/breaking168.htm

Quote :: Ireland’s Rapid Response Corps is on standby to join a European Union humanitarian mission to Georgia if required, it has been confirmed.

Minister of State for Overseas Development Peter Power told a Council of Foreign Ministers in Brussels today that the Irish group would be available to join an EU mission to the region if required.
The Corps, which is run by the Irish Aid division of the Department of Foreign Affairs, was created last year to respond to international crises. It is made up of volunteers experienced in logistics, engineering, health, education and information technology.

Members of the Corps assist in the humanitarian responses of the UN World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Appeals (OCHA).

Mr Power also said Ireland was donating €100,000 in emergency aid to the International Committee of the Red Cross after it appealed for help. Ireland has already committed €500,000 in development aid to Georgia.

“Even after this current crisis is resolved Georgia will be left to face the consequences for much time to come,” Mr Power said in a statement.

“The EU must help it to rebuild on the basis of its full sovereignty and territorial integrity and I am certain that a Europe speaking and acting strongly and clearly will have a positive influence”.

Mr Power was reported as saying the EU ministers backed sending peacekeeping monitors to Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia

“The EU is ready to engage, including on the ground, to support the efforts of the United Nations and the OSCE," he was quoted as saying, adding that the details about sending peacekeepers would be discussed at a meeting of EU foreign ministers next month.

Take anything said on P.ie with extreme caution at this moment in time - the Asylum has well and truly been taken over by the Lunatics.

Guest

Edo wrote:

cactus flower wrote:: Kouchner is offering to send in EU troops and, according to a poster on P.ie,
Michael Martin has said the Irish Army should go in.

Nope - nothing has been decided - and it will require a UN mandate for anything to go ahead.

Micheal Martin said no such thing.

Peter Power - the Minister of State who attended the emergency meeting in Brussels - said that Ireland would consider sending a Rapid Response Team - no troops involved

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0813/breaking168.htm

Quote :: Ireland’s Rapid Response Corps is on standby to join a European Union humanitarian mission to Georgia if required, it has been confirmed.

Minister of State for Overseas Development Peter Power told a Council of Foreign Ministers in Brussels today that the Irish group would be available to join an EU mission to the region if required.
The Corps, which is run by the Irish Aid division of the Department of Foreign Affairs, was created last year to respond to international crises. It is made up of volunteers experienced in logistics, engineering, health, education and information technology.

Members of the Corps assist in the humanitarian responses of the UN World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Appeals (OCHA).

Mr Power also said Ireland was donating €100,000 in emergency aid to the International Committee of the Red Cross after it appealed for help. Ireland has already committed €500,000 in development aid to Georgia.

“Even after this current crisis is resolved Georgia will be left to face the consequences for much time to come,” Mr Power said in a statement.

“The EU must help it to rebuild on the basis of its full sovereignty and territorial integrity and I am certain that a Europe speaking and acting strongly and clearly will have a positive influence”.

Mr Power was reported as saying the EU ministers backed sending peacekeeping monitors to Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia

“The EU is ready to engage, including on the ground, to support the efforts of the United Nations and the OSCE," he was quoted as saying, adding that the details about sending peacekeepers would be discussed at a meeting of EU foreign ministers next month.

Take anything said on P.ie with extreme caution at this moment in time - the Asylum has well and truly been taken over by the Lunatics.

Thanks for that, Edo. Would it be the declining age profile? I feel it is somewhere around 14 and three quarters. Nothing against youth and all that, but its like a litter of untrained puppies at times.

Guest

Bad day at the office in Moscow Stock exchange. It's interesting to note the time things started nosediving. It was around 11.45am our time, yet the news about the Russians breaking ceasefire didn't reach media until around 3.00pm. Funny how news travels isn't it?

Guest

floatingingalway wrote:: Bad day at the office in Moscow Stock exchange. It's interesting to note the time things started nosediving. It was around 11.45am our time, yet the news about the Russians breaking ceasefire didn't reach media until around 3.00pm. Funny how news travels isn't it?

That's a great little graph thing - bit of a steep slide since 20th May.

Guest

The Georgian Stock Exchange only trades lunchtimes three days a week.

It demutualised on May 20 2008 - open to non-resident membership.

http://www.gse.ge/downloads/PressRelease_AGM_ENG.pdf

Guest

http://www.worldpress.org/Asia/1651.cfm

This article is a few years old, but it seems Mother Russia has a lot to fear from unilateral secessionism in the near future. Perhaps she shouldn't be setting standards that will to be her detriment in 30 years time.

Guest

There now seems to be a race between the US and the EU to see who can be first to "Save" Georgia and get their "experts" feet on the ground.

Guest

Anyone that is stupid enough to stick their nose in deserves to get it shot off. The Russian's don't want any Irish prancers delivering food either like some fool is talking about

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