The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000

youngdan wrote:

There was a lad that made a name for himself early in the primaries here by interviewing the lesser candidates early on. People want real questions rather than fluff questions. This is more a problem here than there though for a few reasons.

Tougher libel laws?

Irish people are a hundred times more aware of the issues anyway.

Still no news of the G20 meeting of note. Ths is the big news story of the weekend. The one outcome that I had not thought of is an meeting with no agreement on anything. We await

youngdan wrote:

Irish people are a hundred times more aware of the issues anyway.

Still no news of the G20 meeting of note. Ths is the big news story of the weekend. The one outcome that I had not thought of is an meeting with no agreement on anything. We await

There seems to be news of an agreement so bland as to mean nothing much. George took the opportunity of saying goodbye.

The G20 just sounds like a whole load of regulating everything - very bland. Do they think that this is the sole problem ? Unregulation of CDSs and mortgage credit ?

So far, to me the most interesting thing about the G20 is that it is meeting, and the idea of G7 being able to decide everything at the moment looks pretty irrelevant.

Regulation can't solve much, as the real problems seem to be indebtedness and as Squire said the non-viability of half the world living off the other half any longer.

If all went well, we would just have to start living without living off other people; working a bit harder, or living a bit more modestly, and a lot more equally, or using technology more intelligently, or a bit of all four.

Yeah what Squire was saying is what is no doubt underneath and it's something Squire has been saying since I was reading his posts on p.ie in the early part of the year - the western currencies are overvalued or the eastern ones are undervalued, take your pick but the upshot of that is that we have a lot to lose in the west, if there was justice meeted out between peoples.

I'm not sure I'd agree fully with it - it's so big an idea but it sounds right if you've been to the East at all where things are a lot cheaper. I'm inclined to think the difference in purchasing power has plenty to do with the climate though - Thailand can support a huge population because it is abundant with food and they need no or very little energy to heat themselves and their houses up so they have the very basics right there outside their doors which we haven't thus we strive more to negotiate the weather and in the process we invent and create. As far as I know, major technology hasn't come out of Thailand or Vietnam - we invent it and nurture it because it serves us and helps us but we abuse it too and that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

edit

someone could interview ajcahill from Meath East, he sounds really idealistic, finger on the pulse and is willing to use technology for his ends of getting into the Dáil
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=BaZWEazUu-U

Audi

If climate were all then explain the civilisations of the Aztecs, Egyptians, India, Babylon etc etc. Progress through adversity is a very western view, almost Victorian. White man's burden and all that.

If your arguement were the case the converse should be true as it should take more to buy the scarce resources in the colder regions and less in the warmer. Money would therefore go further and have more value in the warmer climatic zones?

I do agree with you it does cost a lot less to live in say India. Forget the central heating and most of your heavy clothing. Even the standards of construction in your house are different and prevention of heat build up is more important. You are unlikely to die of exposure if you sleep outdoors. Also the land is much more productive. Problems however are over population, lack of water and sewerage treatment and other infra structure developments and nasty diseases. There is a lot to recommend a cold winter, helps kill pests.

There are marches and protests right across Europe and China against job losses and students are marching against cuts. Deflation means massive unemployment. Obama knows this and is ready to start the make-work schemes.

The difference between any over-production and need/ability to buy may be not that much, but the fact that there is a gap is collapsing production like a house of cards.

Squire - I was just watching the news from Spain - 2,000 young people have queued for two weeks to put deposits down on cheap homes that are going to be built near Madrid by a developer who will take a small profit margin. He hasn't bought the land yet but they were prepared to put down deposits. At the same time there are thousands of empty apartments around Madrid.

Wages in China are up to 250 - 300 dollars a month I think I heard - if they don't earn that they are better off going home to the land.

Thanks for indulging my pet theory! **Disclaimer** A lot of the below is speculative and may be utter nonsense.

Squire wrote:

Audi

If climate were all then explain the civilisations of the Aztecs, Egyptians, India, Babylon etc etc. Progress through adversity is a very western view, almost Victorian. White man's burden and all that.

Can you name one tropical civilisation that expanded well beyond its own borders? The Aztecs were in Peru which is sub-tropical/temperate - correct me if I'm wrong there but with a cursory glance at history you don't get tropical civilisations who were given to huge expansion, nor sub-tropical much either. The Romans and Egyptians lived in neither climate - the Egyptians and Babylonians occupied semi-arid climates near river basins (?). The Indians didn't expand beyond their borders either did they - until recently. The civilisations which moved were the Dutch, English, Scandinavians, Spanish and Portugese - many of these were stretched for resources but others were on the borderline of scarcity and enough like the English.

Quote :

If your arguement were the case the converse should be true as it should take more to buy the scarce resources in the colder regions and less in the warmer. Money would therefore go further and have more value in the warmer climatic zones?

I'm not sure I understand you fully here - are you saying that by my theory that places such as Iceland, Greenland and North Scandinavia should be really rich because they are even colder and people would be even more inclined to dig and work and expand ? There's possibly thresholds of tolerance which these places lie just beyond. If it's too harsh then people leave again unless there's very ready resources there easily got at. Plus, I'd say money has more immediate barter value there in terms of things - tools, animals, fish, fur, food etc.

Money sort of grows on trees meaning it is an abundance of nature around us that I think gives money value but there is also a big human element of the effort we are prepared to make which also makes up value. Tropical peoples don't really need to make as much effort as we do yet in Greenland and North Canada you are making so much effort you've gone over the curve of value again. In both extremes the basics suffice - food, shelter; one culture finds it very easy to attain that the other finds it very toilsome.

In between we have the temperate European climates which give a store of riches in one part of the year and less in another part of the year so if we inject the inclination of most things to survive with a similar standard all the time then those peoples will be inclined to expand (or contract by internal war) if resources are threatened by population or else they will be more inclined to technology and tools - a thriving people under threat might see a very different use for metals than a people with abundant basics. One might see tools and weapons, the other ornamentation.

Quote :

I do agree with you it does cost a lot less to live in say India. Forget the central heating and most of your heavy clothing. Even the standards of construction in your house are different and prevention of heat build up is more important. You are unlikely to die of exposure if you sleep outdoors. Also the land is much more productive. Problems however are over population, lack of water and sewerage treatment and other infra structure developments and nasty diseases. There is a lot to recommend a cold winter, helps kill pests.

With regards to the indian sewer systems, or lack of, perhaps there is a critical point in cultures where new patterns emerge because of life/death pressures but this means that the culture needs to be under such pressure first of being threatened with internal disruption or wipeout before an extra effort is made - i.e. the culture or society is now willing to make the effort to adjust itself on a macro level thus wealth comes from the human value input by effort. It's like a wartime effort in effect only without the war. In India's case maybe they are due a war on germs but how critical is it yet ? This kind of mobilisation (to protect and gather resources) I'd say has started happening in China recently and if the model of the super-efficent Singapore is anything to go by then they'll make use of every square inch.

Audi

I am a bit short of time, the Aztecs were in Mexico. You are looking at the world map as it is now in recent history. These Empires did expand beyond their initial boundaries. Egypt up into Palestine and down into Sudan etc.


Cactus Flower.

As I have said over and over there are Developers and Speculators. The two may be combined in one or different. The money in development is in speculation on the value of the site, in increasing its value. It has never been in the actual construction. Few people make a fortune being builders. Most developers get a bad press, the high cost being asked is often just a reflection of what they themselves had to pay to buy the site.

If there are apartments being left empty in Spain perhaps it is an indication of the quality of construction, location or design. Some real horrors about here and there! Memories of one I looked at where the living rooms looked more like corridors. Battery cages for humans.

Squire wrote:

Audi

I am a bit short of time, the Aztecs were in Mexico.

Ok Squire. The Incas I was thinking of I think. To support my theory I think I should look at the Native American tribes in the U.S. and see which ones expanded most from where. I'd be inclined to think the New York or Massachussets indians were the most virulent.

Enjoy mass.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Enjoy mass.

Don't believe I have ever been to one in my life! Is the ceremony at a funeral a mass, don't know, not at all religious. Nearest I came to religion was the readings and choir at school. They contrived all sorts of ways to humiliate in public. Nothing quite like having to clearly enunciated some cryptic passage in front of the assembled masses to put fear in the heart of any 13-14 year old. Character forming and ever so C of E!

No have University friend stopping over with two young children. So we are going to go to for a walk, playground and feed the birds in the park. Go see if they are ready, fun time and an excuse to be daft.

Squire wrote:

Audi

I am a bit short of time, the Aztecs were in Mexico. You are looking at the world map as it is now in recent history. These Empires did expand beyond their initial boundaries. Egypt up into Palestine and down into Sudan etc.


Cactus Flower.

As I have said over and over there are Developers and Speculators. The two may be combined in one or different. The money in development is in speculation on the value of the site, in increasing its value. It has never been in the actual construction. Few people make a fortune being builders. Most developers get a bad press, the high cost being asked is often just a reflection of what they themselves had to pay to buy the site.

If there are apartments being left empty in Spain perhaps it is an indication of the quality of construction, location or design. Some real horrors about here and there! Memories of one I looked at where the living rooms looked more like corridors. Battery cages for humans.

I appreciate that developing is a risky business and most people would not have the nerve for it. Spain is overbuilt like Ireland and there are tens of thousands of empty flats and houses. I presume that prices are artificially being maintained there and will collapse if banks foreclose and there are big fire sales. This might put the 2,000 into negative equity.

It looks as if the guy is prepared to work for builders profit only. He hasn't bought the land yet, and will only buy if he can get it at the right price. The empty property on the market was presumably built on expensive land.

Spanish flats take a bit of getting use to as they are built for shade, rather than sun. That means deep, dark rooms. Certainly, there is a lot of very poor new development in Spain particularly conversions.

Squire wrote:

Nothing quite like having to clearly enunciated some cryptic passage in front of the assembled masses to put fear in the heart of any 13-14 year old. Character forming and ever so C of E!

It is a very good character building exercise. You will have public speaking abilities that many do not.

Will be interesting to see how the markets react to the G20 Summit. Bit of a non entity. My response is negative but there is no telling with the markets any more.

Europe is starting the week slightly in the red. ISEQ Financials taking a bit of a pounding down 4.6% just now.

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

Based on not a lot of action the ISEQ is down to just over 2,500.

Recapitalisation tomorrow?

Why would Glanbia bw down, I wonder?
Bank of Ireland shares close at 83c Print 17:23:19

Quote :

Bank of Ireland shares dropped well below the €1 mark today, closing at just 83c this evening.

The fall followed last week’s announcement that the bank is suspending paying dividends to shareholders, which led to speculation re-capitalisation may be needed.

Bank of Ireland shares hovered around the one euro mark for a large part of the day, before eventually plummeting to it’s closing share value, which compares to a high of €18 last year.

The bank was down 24% for the day.

Last week, chief executive Brian Goggins refused to rule out the possibility that Bank of Ireland may need to be re-capitalised at some stage, but said that time had not yet come.

The other main Irish banks didn't fare too well either in the course of Monday’s trading, where the market finished down 103.24 points to 2,570.58.

AIB closed down 30c to €2.65, Anglo Irish was down 18c to €1.11 whilst Irish Life and Permanent bucked the trend, closing up 1c to €1.56.

Elsewhere, Glanbia was down 18c to €2.38, Ryanair was down by the same amount to €2.68 while FBD was up €1.65 to €11.35.

Someone bought 1% of BofI today.

Sharp drop and more people are sucked in, bit of a rally that usually lasts all of 1 day, some slightly bad news and down we go.

Squire wrote:

Someone bought 1% of BofI today.

Sharp drop and more people are sucked in, bit of a rally that usually lasts all of 1 day, some slightly bad news and down we go.

I thought I saw a little bump. Is it a bit like the January sales, when one buys a pair of green shoes in the wrong size because the leather is nice and they are so cheap?

If you buy Bank shares you have to hold them for 4 month! So you would need to think that one through.

Came across this pleasant tune, very soothing.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=0R-ZE-gFcBA

Squire wrote:

If you buy Bank shares you have to hold them for 4 month! So you would need to think that one through.

Came across this pleasant tune, very soothing.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=0R-ZE-gFcBA

Loved that. I'm not sure that soothing describes this extraordinary musical caterwauling, and bizarre video, but its from the same era and has its own quality.

Suppose both song titles have relevance to the thread subject!!

Toxic Tuesday ?

Richard Bruton was on Morning Ireland just now saying that it was time right now to recapitalise the banks. He didn't say all banks, he said some would need restructuring and that there would be consolidation.

BoI shareprice has virtually collapsed - will it be the first to go ?



BOI - Sharewatch /ISE

Not even an attempt at a rally so far this morning.

BoI seems the only financial up, but that isn't saying much especially given the large purchase yesterday and the low price. In a normal environment there would be others hovering around thinking of take over. Perhaps they are being very quiet about it or perhaps there is reason for the lack of interest?