The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000

floatingingalway wrote:

My other half just went into bank with cheque to cash and was told to come back in an hour as they had run out of cash!!!
His name has been put on a list. I shit you not

where was that (location not bank)

Galway, Salthill

feel free to pm me for further details

17/10/2008 - 12:59:55
The economy is expected to decline further in 2009, according to Irish stock company Goodbodys.

Goodbody Stockbrokers claims expectations for the economy's health have been reduced in light of the recent turmoil on international finance markets.

The company is predicting that GDP will fall by 4% next year, compared to a drop of 2.5% this year.

Goodbody's Chief Economist Dermot O'Leary has said for the time being the credit crunch is here to stay.

"The economies that are affected most from the leveraging are those economies with higher debt levels - and Irish debt levels have gone to among the highest in Europe over the past 10 years. The short-term outlook is very difficult," he said.

This will have its impact.

The bank paid up

floatingingalway wrote:

The bank paid up

Too late. I already told everybody...

The ISEQ is up half a dozen percent this morning - something to reap for the reapers to reap at the end of the week ?



Here is karl denninger talking a week ago about the financial mess - I love the remarks about Icelandic currency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V2lfaIcQI8&feature=user

The ISEQ is swinging upwards and staying(?), finally. Is the wildness and the plummet starting to abate now ? The lads on the Pin are not so sure Worldwide Financial Meltdown is off the table. Where now?.

Will we all regret not buying those shares ?

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

A little bump in the iseq today

Ah yes, we've almost reached the lofty heights of 3,000 only 5,000 left to bring us back to where we were .

Down 3.27% to 2,819

Does anyone know the daily volumes on the ISEQ these days. I've read where one fella said he could move the price of many shares with a mere €50k in purchase or sales. If this is the case, I wouldn't even pay attention to the ISEQ until we turn the economic corner.

FTSE cruising south too

I expect the markets will bounce up and down like a yoyo for months to come. We may even see a bit of the upside until the year end. Maybe not. 'Tis a brave lassie or lad that tries to trade in this market.

In the medium terms things aren't looking so rosy for the markets. The Fed (who else) has now provided a facility for mutual funds (unit trusts for us Europeans) to access loans because the funds are experiencing unprecedented withdraws and many are on the brink of collapse. Even the Fed's Plunge Protection team can't stop the ordinary punter walking away from volatile markets.

rockyracoon wrote:

I expect the markets will bounce up and down like a yoyo for months to come. We may even see a bit of the upside until the year end. Maybe not. 'Tis a brave lassie or lad that tries to trade in this market.

In the medium terms things aren't looking so rosy for the markets. The Fed (who else) has now provided a facility for mutual funds (unit trusts for us Europeans) to access loans because the funds are experiencing unprecedented withdraws and many are on the brink of collapse. Even the Fed's Plunge Protection team can't stop the ordinary punter walking away from volatile markets.

Would that be related to prospective collapse of pension funds?

Don't tell the govt. about the prospective crash of the pension funds! They're no doubt relying on them as a back-up plan for recapitalising the banks

Anybody see anything relating to the Lehmann CDS auction yesterday? There seems to be a news blackout regarding this.

cactus flower wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

I expect the markets will bounce up and down like a yoyo for months to come. We may even see a bit of the upside until the year end. Maybe not. 'Tis a brave lassie or lad that tries to trade in this market.

In the medium terms things aren't looking so rosy for the markets. The Fed (who else) has now provided a facility for mutual funds (unit trusts for us Europeans) to access loans because the funds are experiencing unprecedented withdraws and many are on the brink of collapse. Even the Fed's Plunge Protection team can't stop the ordinary punter walking away from volatile markets.

Would that be related to prospective collapse of pension funds?

Well, this is an US issue so doesn't impact us in Ireland. Pension funds could indeed be invested in mutual and hedge funds and have seen the value of their equity assets take sharp falls. I susupect, like everything else, that the story is far more complicated. Many pension funds have been heavily underfunded for years and relied on increasing equity valuations to make them look healthy. After equities plunged, the pension funds might have a problem in paying out the entitlements to retired people and not be able to make up the lost redemptions against new money flowing into the pensions schemes, and hence they go broke.

Slim Buddha wrote:

Anybody see anything relating to the Lehmann CDS auction yesterday? There seems to be a news blackout regarding this.

By accounts I've come across, SB, the second part of the auction worked out smoothly with no one counterparty experiencing any great losses. This is not to say losses weren't incurred but the fear that an insurance company might be left holding the can, so to speak, or a lot of naked or uncovered positions being exposed didn't occur. This will have greatly comforted the credit markets yesterday.

I came across the info on www.nakedcapitalism.com/ but on a different blog. Sorry, I can't remember which one, but there are many blogs worth exploring on this site. Real credit-techy stuff.

As for the auction itself, the first part of the auction only establishes who the counterparties are and at what bid/offer price they are willing to deal.

The second part of the auction is the settlement phase. I have a nine page print out from www.creditfixings.com/ which explains the process. Suffice to say, it's very complicated. gl

rockyracoon wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Anybody see anything relating to the Lehmann CDS auction yesterday? There seems to be a news blackout regarding this.

By accounts I've come across, SB, the second part of the auction worked out smoothly with no one counterparty experiencing any great losses. This is not to say losses weren't incurred but the fear that an insurance company might be left holding the can, so to speak, or a lot of naked or uncovered positions being exposed didn't occur. This will have greatly comforted the credit markets yesterday.

I came across the info on www.nakedcapitalism.com/ but on a different blog. Sorry, I can't remember which one, but there are many blogs worth exploring on this site. Real credit-techy stuff.

As for the auction itself, the first part of the auction only establishes who the counterparties are and at what bid/offer price they are willing to deal.

The second part of the auction is the settlement phase. I have a nine page print out from www.creditfixings.com/ which explains the process. Suffice to say, it's very complicated. gl

Thanks for that, Rocky. I just heard that Citicorp were into Lehmann to the tune of $138 billion and wanted to check the veracity of that. If it's correct, the fallout could be significant.

It seems that holders of Collateralised Debt Obligations are having an even tougher time than the crowd sweating on the Credit Default Swaps auctions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agu0LWZrdQrg&refer=home

Slim Buddha wrote:

It seems that holders of Collateralised Debt Obligations are having an even tougher time than the crowd sweating on the Credit Default Swaps auctions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agu0LWZrdQrg&refer=home

These are gambles on high-risk loans on collateral ? So a rake of investors got high for a while on me with my 12%+ subprime loan from my local lending institution for my old jalopy but they didn't reckon I'd default which I did big style. Now they want to auction off my old jalopy ? They are getting 10% of what I borrowed for it by auctioning my debt .. ?

They're getting something back at least because the old crock is worth something. Unfortunately they also gambled on my loan for that round the world holiday ...

Slim Buddha wrote:

It seems that holders of Collateralised Debt Obligations are having an even tougher time than the crowd sweating on the Credit Default Swaps auctions.

[

Quote :

url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agu0LWZrdQrg&refer=home]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agu0LWZrdQrg&refer=home[/url]

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are taking losses of up to 90 percent in the $1.2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations tied to corporate credit as the failures of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Icelandic banks send shockwaves through the global financial system.

The losses among banks, insurers and money managers may spark the next round of writedowns on CDOs after $660 billion in subprime-related losses. They may force lenders to post more reserves after governments worldwide announced $3 trillion in financial-industry rescue packages since last month, according to Barclays Capital.

``We'll see the same problems we've seen in subprime,'' said Alistair Milne, a professor in banking and finance at Cass Business School in London and a former U.K. Treasury economist. ``Banks will take substantial markdowns.''

There isn't much room for substantial mark-down of the Irish banks.

What amazes me is that people are still selling and buying "insurances" against future losses that occur as fallout from the collapsed "insurances". Is there no end to it?

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

The ISEQ is plummeting into uncharted depths this morning. Do we have a link to the banks anywhere?