The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

At the very last moment of trading on Friday 14th of march, the ISEQ fell to 5999.75 where it will remain languishing until tuesday morning.

If this was urine.ie there would already be a 6 million page long thread full of comments from Ard Taoiseach and co, claiming that the Iseq is still an excellent investment, that there is nothing wrong with the irish economy, we're going to grow by 8% this year and house prices will recover sometime after st patricks day.

But its not urine.ie and there's nobody to go 'ha ha i told ya so' to.

(come on, pleeeeze, someone accuse me of wishing for a recession and talking down the economy!!)

No Akrasia, I will not. It is very serious. The world order is changing and we should all be out planting potatoes
(sorry, but I am not joking). Politics.ie going down when it did has left a gap for those who used it to test their understanding of what is going on. The implications of the dollar and the US economy going down just at the moment of our property crash take a bit of thinking about. Thanks for picking this one up.

cactus flower wrote:

No Akrasia, I will not. It is very serious. The world order is changing and we should all be out planting potatoes
(sorry, but I am not joking). Politics.ie going down when it did has left a gap for those who used it to test their understanding of what is going on. The implications of the dollar and the US economy going down just at the moment of our property crash take a bit of thinking about. Thanks for picking this one up.

Are potatoes really that good of an investment? I'm sure I read something about us being over reliant on that particular crop once before?

The dive is on here - see it live

Quote :

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

again

Auditor #9 wrote:

The dive is on here
http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

What does it mean though? Banks are getting cleaned out big style and I'd say AIB saw this coming two years ago. Could be good for other industries with some consolidation (it will ensue) in irish banking.

When the banks put their own buildings on the market last year it was plain that they knew that the property bust was coming.

There is no cause for concern. When Magic Arse is located in whichever exotic locale that he is spending this happy holiday on the taxpayers dime he will be swiftly brought to the closest sturdy commode and all will be well. Now did somebody question my sanity by my talk of breaking 5000. I believe my target was a 90% drop to 1000 from 6 months ago.

The best comedy writers on Earth could not make this any better. I have found that in the midst of the greatest economic crisis ever Magic Arse is where else but Vietnam. Does this poltroon expect the Viet Cong to invest billions in rice paddys arround Ferbane or something. As I predicted about Chief Yellow Jacket the first words out of Magic Arse's gob was that the crisis is not a local event but an international event. So don't blame Magic Arse for anything because it is not his fault. So ye are paying for this eejit in Vietnam and the other disgrace Cockroach in China.

Within the hour the rate cut will be announced. When this rally runs out of steam there will be massive sell off in the market. The movements in the final 2 hours today should be as good as has been seen for a long time

three-quarters of a percent.

On the RTE news at six the reporter David Murphy was saying that there are 90,000 workers in Ireland employed by American multinationals ... mama mía .. and now those multinationals will feel a big cost increase to continue their operations here so they could start doing something drastic.

pfkf1 was right about lowering the corporation rate although I wonder if it should be reduced temporarily or provisionally only. The dollar strengthens again and what we charge goes up, sorry lads, ye can't have it all.

This would possibly have a stabilising effect on the ISEQ here - effectively we would be pegging our services to the dollar... in a micro scale.

The ISEQ should have a good jump on the back of the 420 dow rally today. The dow had an exact same jump last Tuesday and gave it all back. I don't follow the Irish market much but I would note that Anglo was off today in an up market after dropping 15% yesterday. Keep an eye on this baby.

Quote :

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

You can click on it here dan for a look. (it should open in a new tab) You can see the dive it took yesterday but it was recovering from the day before last time I looked.

The fecker has actually gained on the previous day's close. How did they know p.ie was back online?

Everytime I think I understand global economics, I realise I don't understand it at all.

The European markets have had a pretty slack day today. 6000 should be viewed as a ceiling at this stage.

I have a feeling the market is about to crash now with the rush for cash that is happening

Sell! Sell! Sell!

youngdan wrote:

The European markets have had a pretty slack day today. 6000 should be viewed as a ceiling at this stage.

Surely it was at 6000 before? like in 1995 or something. No? Why all the huffing now? The money does not exist anyway, except in computers.

On the way up people would be looking at 6000 and saying that they would buy if it passes it. This evening lads will be looking at it and kicking themselves for not selling above it when they had the chance. Deep down they will know that they might have missed the bus. If it were to click up a some bit of good news these people would be ready to grab at this fortunate 2nd chance in their minds. Their selling would be putting a ceiling on the probable price rise until such time as their minds were changed. Today was an ominous day indeed. Nobody knows the future but I expect serious selling in Asia tonight. The metal drop does not surprise me and is very deflationary. The few with cash will buy up whatever gold they don't own from those forced to sell. The demand for dollars will rise in a rush to liquidity now but will ultimately fall as the dollar will crash

It would be agreed by most that Rock of Cashel is a rock of sense but he may be suffering from a touch of SS (also known as Saratoga Syndrome) as his favourite stock Merck drops 15% today for a multiyear low of 37 dollars and change. I hope it recovers as I am guessing Rock is a man that would have put his money where his mouth is. Hopefully the selling is exaggerated because today is the end of quarter and managers would not want to have to report holding too much of a stock that is I think down 35% for the quarter.

I thought I'd have to change the title of this thread with today's movements on the ISEQ but luckily it ended up by 24 points and keeps the title relevant.

Since the bsc buyout the markets have been calm.There is little news here until the monthly employment report on Friday which are not very accurate and allways revised later. There seems to be few posts on the thread on pie lately either.

youngdan wrote:

Since the bsc buyout the markets have been calm.There is little news here until the monthly employment report on Friday which are not very accurate and allways revised later. There seems to be few posts on the thread on pie lately either.

Could this be a turning point? Couldn't Bear Stearns buy-out(with the subsequent rise in JP's buyout price) mark the low point of the current market cycle?

Calm before the storm, Ard-Taoiseach, I am both with, and against, George Soros on this one.

cactus flower wrote:

Calm before the storm, Ard-Taoiseach, I am both with, and against, George Soros on this one.

We shall see, won't we cactus flower?

In my view the problems are long term. The prosperity of the last few years was fake. Withdrawal of home equity which is spent. Now the equity is gone but the debt remains. The consumer can no longer get their hands on this cash cow any more. Now prices of everything is rising. The truckers are talking about striking. There could be a shaft on them like Reagon did to the air traffic controlers as there is talk of allowing Mexican Trucks to operate without any regulation that the domestic trucker has to worry about like weight of load and continous driving time. An effect here and in Ireland that I forsee is a big shortfall in government revenues. That is not a prediction because how can it be otherwise. The earning season reports are ust beginning so we shall see how the market fares

The ISEQ played a blinder today, with the index up over 3% at the close. The gains started strongly and got stronger as the day wore on. This puts the ISEQ well above 6,000.