The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Dollar rose another cent today against the Euro. Sterling seems to be holding its value... Crude at 113 and Brent 110.

No surprise. The Euro is weak because the EU is been shown to be weak.

Auditor #9 wrote:

So maybe it's just the end of the bottoming out of the Dow and ISEQ or is the fear of war that's driving the dollar up do ye think? Fear and other such negative emotions seem to be great economic emotional drivers. What about the Hope and the Love ?

The only two emotions which drive the market are fear and greed. Fear is in ascendant during a bear market when people are afraid of losing money and going bankrupt. Greed is dominant during bull markets when people gamble and speculate to eke out yet more billions in profit.

Quote :

Is it coincidence that the ISEQ is rising with the dollar or the fall of oil ? Or is our share betting economic index inextricably linked with the economy of America and American MNCs here?

The fall in oil will improve the profitability of most publically quoted Irish companies so that drives traders to revalue Irish equities upwards and that drives the index up. Our ISEQ is linked to the health of both the Irish and international economy of which the MNCs in Ireland would be a large part.

youngdan wrote:

No surprise. The Euro is weak because the EU is been shown to be weak.

Tell that to Microsoft who got a massive fine from the Commission. Tell that to GE and Honeywell, two major US MNCs whose merger was blocked by the EU. Tell that to the several states in Eastern Europe who when the EU tells them to jump to meet the Copenhagen criteria, their only response is "how high?". Tell that to the Russians who were pushed into signing Kyoto due to EU pressure.

The EU is very powerful in international organisation in ways the US can only dream.

Exactly my point. It is easy enough to boss round companies and countries looking for a handout. The Europeans are seriously delusional if they think Putin is worried about them. They believe their own jive on international law etc. Usefull idiots does not begin to describe them. The Americans are even more stupid because McCain and Obama actually think they can do anything about it. Well off with them. These Western politicians have been following a gameplan for a new world order and the elimination of nation states and Putin has called their bluff.

They don't have any balls and the Georgians actually thought that the Europeans would help them. Has the flouride dissolved their brains. What is the Georgian for Gobshythe.

That Suckawilly reminds me of the lad with the ferrets face pointing the gun at the cameraman. What's his name O'Day. It is not right to laugh but having your soldiers stuck in Iraq which is none of their business while the Russkies are killing all round them is just what one would expect from a fool. O Day is worried about Africans while there are tribes battling in Mulingar. Is his brain stunted as well as his body. Who votes for all these midgets.

Putin has the power and the rest have their piss.

Putin has all the power?

This American would not agree:

http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/intervention/2004/01bases.htm

Or this one -

Quote :

Our policy, rather than having the desired effect, has had the exact opposite of its intended result. Instead of a liberal democratic government that is a model for the region, what is rising in Iraq is an Islamic theocracy modeled on Iran's.

The same reversal effect is evident in Ukraine, where another U.S.-supported-and-funded "revolution" has introduced fresh conflicts and ushered in a system that bears little resemblance to Western liberal democracy. The "Orange Revolution" has turned sour on its enthusiasts, as Yushchenko and his former ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, the "gas princess," turn on each other, and the president allies with his former enemies to keep his government from falling. Tymoshenko's crude attempts to fix prices, install her loyalists in key positions, and provoke a conflict with Russia were finally too much for the popular president, who had to step in and fire her.

Instead of ridding the country of corruption, clearing out the oligarchs, and freeing up the economy, the Orange revolutionaries turned a shade pinkish, and even a bit red about the edges, assuming state control of previously privatized industries and cracking down on their opponents' control of various media outlets.

Meanwhile, by the way, we have heard no more about the alleged plot to poison Yushchenko, which was blamed by the pro-Orange Western media on his rival, Yanukovich, and the Russian KGB. The long-promised investigation seems to have permanently stalled.

Another of the color-coded "revolutions" bought and paid for by the U.S., Kyrgyzstan's, had a very similar result. Ostensibly modeled on the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia, the "Pink Revolution" that engulfed Kyrgyzstan earlier this year was a thuggish affair. Mobs took over government buildings, then indulged in an orgy of looting and destruction that extended to the capital city's business community. An election in which numerous irregularities occurred was held, and the victor – former Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiyev – immediately declared that this augured the crushing of the "counterrevolutionary" elements in the country. Bakiyev owes much of his fame to having ordered troops to fire into a crowd of 1,500 protesters, killing five: shortly after the coup, he consolidated his power, elbowing aside both former allies and supporters of the old regime. At one point he threatened to ask the U.S. to abandon its military base, but now it appears that Condoleezza Rice has dissuaded him, and the U.S. military presence may even expand. There isn't any real democracy in Kyrgyzstan, but there is, for the first time, a written agreement with the government to host a U.S. military base.

And that, dear readers, is the real point.

Chalmers Johnson, the trenchant critic of American militarism, has characterized the U.S. as an "empire of bases," and what we are witnessing is the extension of this global system of linked launching pads for American military intervention from Kyrgyzstan to Ukraine to Iraq. This, and not the creation of genuine liberal democratic societies, is our real foreign policy objective. Ukraine is preparing to enter NATO, so that Western troops and weaponry will soon be poised 15 minutes from Moscow. Iraq, too, is the future site of permanent U.S. military bases, and there are ample signs that we are already digging in for the long haul.

Democracy? Don't make me laugh. Democracy is the god that failed to accomplish its ostensible goals everywhere the U.S. has intervened – but the real objective of our "liberationist" foreign policy is well on the way to being achieved.

We didn't aid the "democratic" revolution in Kyrgyzstan to create a Jeffersonian republic, but to facilitate our ongoing occupation of Afghanistan and encircle Russia. We didn't tout the glorious "Orange Revolution" and funnel millions to the Yushchenko camp out of any desire to help Ukrainians make a better life for themselves: it was and is all about NATO. The same lesson holds true for Iraq, only more so.

In Kyrgyzstan, a relatively liberal tyrant was overthrown and replaced by someone with the reputation of a hardliner. In Ukraine, a corrupt and neo-socialistic gang was replaced by an equally corrupt and authoritarian crew, albeit one with Western connections. In Iraq, the same pattern holds: there, however, the consequences are much bloodier, with the nation fast descending into all-out civil war, and the various factions contending for power even less palatable. Iraqis are faced with the "choice" of pro-Iranian fundamentalists, neo-Ba'athists, and the expansionist tribalism that rules semi-autonomous Kurdistan – as al-Qaeda lurks in the background, feeding on the spreading chaos.

The ultimate goal of American foreign policy must always be the defense of the American people, i.e., of the continental U.S. Once we began to deviate from that core principle, as enunciated by the Founders, we began to get into trouble. I would trace the roots of that trouble to the pernicious nonsense advanced by President Woodrow Wilson, whose militant internationalism got us into World War I – but that is the subject of another column. Suffice to say, here, that the would-be exporters of "democracy" have merely succeeded in creating more and bigger trouble, wherever their democratist dogma has been applied. It is time to call a halt to this ill-conceived experiment – before it claims more lives and backfires spectacularly in our faces.

(Justin Raimondo)

And this - by a Ron Paul supporter:

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12618

I don't see any American power. The only ones they have beaten in the last 60 years has been Grenada. All their losses were deliberate. They could have won Korea, Vietnam easily. They could wipe out Cuba in 3 hours. They have given North Korea about 10 billion dollars. They want a new world order and for that they need a big war.

youngdan wrote:

I don't see any American power. The only ones they have beaten in the last 60 years has been Grenada. All their losses were deliberate. They could have won Korea, Vietnam easily. They could wipe out Cuba in 3 hours. They have given North Korea about 10 billion dollars. They want a new world order and for that they need a big war.

Spreading themselves too thin?



Another interesting map.

How many of those troop deployments in the first map relate to the troops which are deployed as protection to embassies. That is fairly standard practise for most large and powerful countries. I don't know the answer, I just know you can get maps to say most things you want.

johnfás wrote:

How many of those troop deployments in the first map relate to the troops which are deployed as protection to embassies. That is fairly standard practise for most large and powerful countries. I don't know the answer, I just know you can get maps to say most things you want.

I agree johnfás, and I note that we are shown as having a US base (Shannon?). There are a lot of different attempts at maps of US bases - it is not likely that any of them are 100% correct. The essential point that the US has a worldwide chain of substantial permanent bases is undisputed.

Thet have over 700 bases overseas. They have 100 military advisers with the Georgian army. They should have advised them not to start trouble. It is rare that a population pays for being stupid but the Georgians will.

Now they say that some of the dead are black. Fancy that, a African-Georgian. Never knew there was such a thing.

I'm aghast. Politics barging into the economics threads. The way lil ole me looks at the whole shebang is in fairly simple terms. The Russians have drawn a line in the sand. The EU and by extention the US have been drawing the Eastern European countires into the union and extended the military parameters of Nato. They are trying to extend their influence beyond the normal European pale into the far Europe/near east and at a very important strategic area around the Black sea. The Russians, who during the Soviet era planted Russian populations in many strategic areas, have sent the troops in to protect their interests in this area. Nato nor the EU can do anything about beyond declare war. It's not going to happen. The Russians have been waiting for such an opportunity. Sarkozy may come back with a piece of paper declaring a ceasefire but he reality is that the Russian's have made a stand and example to the US and the EU about where the buck stops.

The US is in economic/military decline. While maps may portray a high impression of strength, the reality is the world geo-politcal reality is changing in step with the world geo-economic reality. These bases cost money and their returns are nominal. Most US bases are symbolic in nature - ie Europe. The only real bases that mean anything are in the Middle East. The Saudi base and the ones in Iraq. The Iraqi bases are expensive in terms of cost and human life, and the ultimate effectiveness will probably be minimal.

On a broader front, democracy as a philosophy and as a mechanism is eroding in the West and seen by many nations as nothing more than hype hiding the real power. Many so-called democracies are viewed as nothing more than window dressing masking an embedded power structures that ignore the will of the people they are supposed to represent. The Chinese have morphed into a nation which is capitalistic in it economy and totalitarian in its politics.This has been the historical norm for China. It's overseas influence is spreading by one means only. It's using its economic clout. It is not constrained by ideological fences, but only uses profit and commodity allocation as a measure of its success. No country in the world would dare mess with the Chinese militarily. Full stop.

Russia is, well, Russia. It will do everything in its power to carve out a world profile. Even if it has to go bankrupt to do so. One of the greatest failings of the European Project will be the failure to engage Russia directly within the Union. I suppose neither the Germans nor the French want such a potentially powerful member in the Union, but Russia's inclusion would have utterly altered the power dynamic within Europe and between East and West. Maybe the Russians have no desire on their part either. I don't know.

So my call is fairly simple.The EU will adopt Lisbon by hook or crook and eventually extend is parameters of influence on member states. It's inevitable. The military-economic construct will be built along the US the model. It will surely engage the Russians, the US and China/Japan. Essentially we'll have three big corporations competeing on the world stage. Probably alot of tears to follow.

It was well worth the trouble of drawing you out on the politics, Rocky Racoon.

I would add Slim Buddha's observations in relation to Central and South America, where the populations have tried the capitalist medecine and are now trying to spit it out. The enthusiasm of some Eastern European populations for unbridled capitalism is also ebbing as the loss of social security and increased economic division bites. Saakashvili may have in part made the rash move as a response to his difficulties with the opposition. China is generating a massive population of industrial workers who are working in many cases in appalling conditions. There have been running battles between them and police and army.There has been a creeping coup from above in relation to democracy, and the big decisions are being made behind closed doors in Brussels by the EU and Geneva by the WTO, but realisation of this is dawning in European populations, who aren't likely to remain passive for ever. The No vote was an indicator.
Population growth, end of oil, climate change and food shortages are the big difficulties for our species. They are all making stable government more and more difficult.

US military expenditure has rocketed again under Bush, and the NATO base in Kosovo is massive. Iraq, according to Stiglitz, has cost the US $3 trillion, but I've read elsewhere that it has been a winner in terms of private profits to US firms. There is no sign of cut backs, and the privatised model of militarism has been added. This is being deficit funded - how long can this go on ? Given the US's massive weapons stockpiles and military infrastructure they may decide to extend the smash and grab approach tried in Iraq. Imo without the military strength of Russia and China they wouldn't hesitate.

Russia's history is fairly straightforward: it has been invaded many times and its size has saved it - it perceives buffer zones as critical to its survival. I think the moment for moves to ally with Russia has probably passed - earlier a positive approach from the EU might have cut ice. At this stage Europe is too energy dependent and an alliance would be uneven in too many ways - sort our alternative energies out and that picture might change quickly. An EU with Turkey and Russia would be a very different kettle of fish.

The current trend is to the emergence of three big blocks - the EU is light years behind as a military entity. There are other emerging players out there too - Brazil and India - that will add to the unpredicability of the mix. Viable alternative energy sources would also mean all kinds of interesting changes in power relations.

The only option for the EU is to adopt Lisbon without Lisbon - it has already begun to do this. The EU debate will continue to get hotter with more awareness of its importance to populations. Beyond this, my crystal ball is failing me.

The ISEQ is down a hefty 90 points so far today. The €uro continues its downward drift to below the 1.50 level. The oil price is still falling and gold is posting its seventh straight day of losses. It seems that the commodity market's bull run has been, for the moment, stalled. Perhaps we are in the beginning of the end of the commodity super cycle.

As long as we maintain against sterling. I'm about to make a purchase for a few hundred euro in sterling.

The first story in www.finfacts.ie states that an expert has commented that it usually takes 4-5 years to come out of a banking crisis. Also a big american bank has noted a serious deterioration in the mortgage market in July.

It seems to me that the ill effects of this crisis are only starting to bite now. Where it will end is not clear. I think it will be a while before we here Yazz on the radio though.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

The first story in www.finfacts.ie states that an expert has commented that it usually takes 4-5 years to come out of a banking crisis. Also a big american bank has noted a serious deterioration in the mortgage market in July.

It seems to me that the ill effects of this crisis are only starting to bite now. Where it will end is not clear. I think it will be a while before we here Yazz on the radio though.

I'm afraid your right Zhou. There's a lot more s**** in the pipeline.

rockyracoon wrote:

One of the greatest failings of the European Project will be the failure to engage Russia directly within the Union. I suppose neither the Germans nor the French want such a potentially powerful member in the Union, but Russia's inclusion would have utterly altered the power dynamic within Europe and between East and West. Maybe the Russians have no desire on their part either. I don't know.

Don't be so sure of that. Joschka Fischer had a decidedly Central & Eastern European outlook. It soured a bit with all sorts of goings on with illegal immigration and the Russian Mafia. There is definitely an opinion in Germany that would see closer and more friendly relations with Russia as desirable and necessary. Also note the French comments on the Mediterranean and the Levant. Very shrewd and I can say without hesitation there would be overwhelming support in countries like Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Turkey, Lebanon and Morocco for much closer economic cooperation. The EU is not viewed with the same odium that the USA is.

In Europe we just need a bit more confidence in ourselves, clean up our act and move forward. For me the EU (warts and all) is simple brilliant. If we would just be a little more possitive we will be up there with China and India come 2050.

As for the USA, unless it does something meaningful about its deficits it will decline. Yes it can do all sorts of tricks with bonds and money supply, and pull a few more rabbits out of the hat, but somewhere along the line one of them won't work! Georgia certainly put any designs on Iran on hold.

ISEQ 4570 at close. IMO oil will increase again as we approach winter and with the recent upsets in Georgia.

Squire wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

One of the greatest failings of the European Project will be the failure to engage Russia directly within the Union. I suppose neither the Germans nor the French want such a potentially powerful member in the Union, but Russia's inclusion would have utterly altered the power dynamic within Europe and between East and West. Maybe the Russians have no desire on their part either. I don't know.

Don't be so sure of that. Joschka Fischer had a decidedly Central & Eastern European outlook. It soured a bit with all sorts of goings on with illegal immigration and the Russian Mafia. There is definitely an opinion in Germany that would see closer and more friendly relations with Russia as desirable and necessary. Also note the French comments on the Mediterranean and the Levant. Very shrewd and I can say without hesitation there would be overwhelming support in countries like Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Turkey, Lebanon and Morocco for much closer economic cooperation. The EU is not viewed with the same odium that the USA is.

In Europe we just need a bit more confidence in ourselves, clean up our act and move forward. For me the EU (warts and all) is simple brilliant. If we would just be a little more possitive we will be up there with China and India come 2050.

As for the USA, unless it does something meaningful about its deficits it will decline. Yes it can do all sorts of tricks with bonds and money supply, and pull a few more rabbits out of the hat, but somewhere along the line one of them won't work! Georgia certainly put any designs on Iran on hold.

ISEQ 4570 at close. IMO oil will increase again as we approach winter and with the recent upsets in Georgia.

Kouchner was in North Ossetia yesterday and Sarkhozy was in Georgia today. Does France share Germany's outlook to Russia, or is it acting as a prospective returned NATO member?

It is insanity to imagine the EU as coming to anything. Snap out of it. To think the Russians want to be EU citizens really is idicative of delusion altogether. The Russians are one people united in a common cause with a leader who is admired and strong.

The Russians are a tribe.

In contrast take the British. A proud race 60 years ago. Look at them now. A mismatch of everybody and a mismatch of nobody. Does anybody think Brown inspires confidence.

Then we have the Irish. Well good luck. Brian Cowan is no Brian Boru alas.

The bigger problem is that a good portion are not Irish and another portion have become so gelded that they don't want to be Irish but want to be European.

The Georgians probably thought they were European up until last week

youngdan wrote:

It is insanity to imagine the EU as coming to anything. Snap out of it. To think the Russians want to be EU citizens really is idicative of delusion altogether. The Russians are one people united in a common cause with a leader who is admired and strong.

The Russians are a tribe.

In contrast take the British. A proud race 60 years ago. Look at them now. A mismatch of everybody and a mismatch of nobody. Does anybody think Brown inspires confidence.

Then we have the Irish. Well good luck. Brian Cowan is no Brian Boru alas.

The bigger problem is that a good portion are not Irish and another portion have become so gelded that they don't want to be Irish but want to be European.

The Georgians probably thought they were European up until last week

I think, youngdan, they are wiser now. I also think that a large part of Putin's exercise in directing the traffic in Georgia in the last week was for the benefit of the Ukraine and others.

Slim Buddha wrote:

youngdan wrote:

It is insanity to imagine the EU as coming to anything. Snap out of it. To think the Russians want to be EU citizens really is idicative of delusion altogether. The Russians are one people united in a common cause with a leader who is admired and strong.

The Russians are a tribe.

In contrast take the British. A proud race 60 years ago. Look at them now. A mismatch of everybody and a mismatch of nobody. Does anybody think Brown inspires confidence.

Then we have the Irish. Well good luck. Brian Cowan is no Brian Boru alas.

The bigger problem is that a good portion are not Irish and another portion have become so gelded that they don't want to be Irish but want to be European.

The Georgians probably thought they were European up until last week

I think, youngdan, they are wiser now. I also think that a large part of Putin's exercise in directing the traffic in Georgia in the last week was for the benefit of the Ukraine and others.

Can't we just get our windmills working and cut off the pipelines at this end ?

As long as Russia is outside EU pale, any representation of closer ties is an illusion. Once a conflict arises where Russia believes its interests are in opposition to the EU, Russia will act accordinly and entirely in its own self interests. Russia is relatively resource rich, while the EU isn't. Who in the coming years will call the tune?

On the financial front, it was a mixed bag with most markets lower. The breadth indicators are fairly negative although futures prices are holding up nicely.

If commodities keep falling, we should see an abatement in inflation by the beginning of next year. It seems this inflationary bout will lead to an erosion in the standard of living for many as wages aren't keeping up with inflation. I'm beginning to wonder, given the under reporting of inflation figures in the last 10 years coupled with sustained increasing oil prices, if the standard of living in the West in general isn't going to continue to degenerate.

Meanwhile, the credit crunch continues apace. UBS is looking as weak as Citi, Merril and others. This baby and its after effects will be running well into next year.

rockyracoon wrote:

As long as Russia is outside EU pale, any representation of closer ties is an illusion. Once a conflict arises where Russia believes its interests are in opposition to the EU, Russia will act accordinly and entirely in its own self interests. Russia is relatively resource rich, while the EU isn't. Who in the coming years will call the tune?

On the financial front, it was a mixed bag with most markets lower. The breadth indicators are fairly negative although futures prices are holding up nicely.

If commodities keep falling, we should see an abatement in inflation by the beginning of next year. It seems this inflationary bout will lead to an erosion in the standard of living for many as wages aren't keeping up with inflation. I'm beginning to wonder, given the under reporting of inflation figures in the last 10 years coupled with sustained increasing oil prices, if the standard of living in the West in general isn't going to continue to degenerate.

Meanwhile, the credit crunch continues apace. UBS is looking as weak as Citi, Merril and others. This baby and its after effects will be running well into next year.

I was shocked when I looked at living standards in the US to see they hadn't moved since the 1970s and since 2005 have taken a dive downwards.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/jan2006/hous-j16.shtml
Poverty and homelessness is increasing. Governor of the Bank of England told us all last year that we would have to accept a lower standard of living because of rising oil prices.

Wind and tidal energy are competitive from about $90 dollars a barrel. I'd be surprised if we don't see oil prices come down to that level.

cactus flower wrote:

Can't we just get our windmills working and cut off the pipelines at this end ?

I agree and nicely put.

The population of Russia is a fairly mixed bag. It is a vast country and travel a few 100 kms out of Moscow and you are virtually on a different planet.

Russia will of course act in the interests of Russia but so also will the USA. I think there will be growing trade between Russia the EU and in time better relations. There is more to be gained by cooperation than growling at each other. Why spend so much time and effort threatening each other and less trying to improve cooperation?