The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000

Why would anyone take over a bank that was about to be recapitalised, and the shareholding diluted, and subject to semi nationalisation?

Get on with it, lads!

So if the gov capitalise the BoI, what will this do to the share price ?
Must get my wallet back off the SU.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

So if the gov capitalise the BoI, what will this do to the share price ?
Must get my wallet back off the SU.

It'll be confetti.

I don't know... the simple argument says that there is a dilution of shares and thus the share price falls. However, this is the simple explanation. If people think the bank is about to collapse and after a government capitalisation they feel that the bank will survive, starting form a low base it is quite possible that the share price will rise.

The killer in all these things is in the detail and if such were to happen we don't know the detail. You could lose all. It would be an utter gamble.

CF

If there was a take over likely or someone interested then the government would not act. So why is no one interested not even at this price? Perhaps they are all keeping very quiet? Anyone's guess.

Feck it, I'm going in.

Who's got the lowest commission ? Davys want 100 quid for a phone transaction.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Feck it, I'm going in.

Who's got the lowest commission ? Davys want 100 quid for a phone transaction.

Where are you going ? The *almost* is going to be taken out of the Nationalisation thread soon - where will that leave your 80 cents shares ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Feck it, I'm going in.

Who's got the lowest commission ? Davys want 100 quid for a phone transaction.

Where are you going ? The *almost* is going to be taken out of the Nationalisation thread soon - where will that leave your 80 cents shares ?

They are still making profit. They still have tucks of good assets - both fixed and current. I can wait a few years for a return. So where's the problem ?

I have to say if I had the cash I'd be with EVM on this.

Don't forget you have to hold Bank shares for 4 months before you can sell!!! At least I think that is one of the measures introduced. Sort of puts a damper on it.

Meh, spreadbet if you want to make a quick buck and you get a thrill from gambling. I don't but some do.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Feck it, I'm going in.

Who's got the lowest commission ? Davys want 100 quid for a phone transaction.

Where are you going ? The *almost* is going to be taken out of the Nationalisation thread soon - where will that leave your 80 cents shares ?

They are still making profit. They still have tucks of good assets - both fixed and current. I can wait a few years for a return. So where's the problem ?

You'd imagine the shares would have to go up now once they get recapitalised ... or it won't affect the share price adversely so it looks like a sure bet only question is by how much the shares will rise ?

On the other hand if it all goes horribly wrong and the bank recapitalisation doesn't work ...

The shares could go to 2 pennies. But in the end the company is profitable. So the share has value. Because the company has value. Only problem right now is that nobody wants a share. So I'm gonna get me a thousand shares.

You found out what commission you have to pay yet?

Goodbody is 1.25% comm. minimum €32
Account maintenance is €26 per annum
Minimum account fund is €1000
_______________________________
Davy is 0.75% up to 25k. Minimum €25
Account maintenance is €80 per annum
Minimum account fund is €2000
_____________________________
1% Stamp duty on Irish shares
0.5% Stamp duty on UK shares

Both take 5 days to set up.

And then don't forget your CGT on any profit you make.

Seems to be a bit of talk about possible foreign investors in the Banks, government intervention and mergers.

Squire wrote:

Seems to be a bit of talk about possible foreign investors in the Banks, government intervention and mergers.

As you said on the other thread, the ISEQ is irrelevant now. However, the bank shares are very attractive but are they being traded at only nominal values or is there some guts behind what little price they have ?

The private investment noise - that means the banks get their own money and won't be relying on the government ? No doubt they'll take everything they can get but there would be strings attached to the government pumping money in.

The vista is that a few Banks here will end up owning rakes of the property and will be renting it to the former tenants. Do you know what would happen to your shares in BOI or in any of these banks if some were to merge ? Do your shares get wiped out unless it is a 'friendly' takeover ?

Audi the purpose is to inject more cash into these businesses so what should happen is that the value of the existing shares is diluted.

However when governments get involved all bets are off. You have to bear in mind that daft guarantee so their priority won't be that of the average share holder.

So why did share prices go up today at the hint of cash injections ? I know the price couldn't have gone anywhere else though -

Jaysus Australian markets are dipping dramatically now too by the news on Bloomberg. Babcock and Brown who owns our telephone network here is being suspended in share trading and placed in a ... missed that.

Jaysus. Nikkei down now 2% too.

I would imagine the increases are on low volume. I think people hear that the price has dropped from 11 Euro to 80 cents and are told, "what good value". Add to that brand recognition and a familiar name on the High Street, the mystic of Banks being sound etc and people think I well have some of that it is bound to turn out all right. Some may be justifying this by saying they are taking a longer view.

Whilst they may be right I think they underestimate the potential downside. If you invest 10,000 Euro in any business and it goes under, or the share value is diluted, it really does not matter the price of the share when purchased. You lose 10,000 or a percentage of that sum.

Also I believe one Bank made a statement that there would be no dividends this or next year. So investers are relying on an increase in the value of the shares to make a return. It is worth pondering on that one. If you come to the conclusion that the share value is going nowhere for a while you may as well invest elsewhere in the mean time.

You are right Asia is opening in the red. Nikkei is down 4% now. However this is almost non news, whilst there may be rallies who thinks global markets have floored yet? IMO the trend is definitely still down and what chance of a major recovery in the ISEQ is the world markets are on the slide?

The question is when will the markets hit bottom? If we end up in a severe recession with Retail price index falling what are the consequences? Will there be runs on major currencies? Given these sort of questions what's the hurry to invest? The priority now is not gain but endeavouring not to lose.

EDIT

Asia down last night anything from 1.7% to 6.9% falls. ISEQ Financials have lost any overall gains of a few days ago and are back at about 1200. Europe has opened down 2%-3% with the exception of the ATX which is down over 5% Anyone's guess how the day will go. IMO the main markets have further losses ahead, but when and by exactly how much is anyone's guess. Ask yourself does it feel like the background is there to sustain a rally? It is said that the stock markets bounce back about 6 months to a year ahead of the economy.

If ever there was a morning that illusrtrates just how volatile the ISEQ is look at the ISEQ financials this morning. Oscillating over 15% in a matter of hours. Down, up and now heading back down.

ISEQ has fallen off a cliff since Wall Street opened. Currently down 150 (6%).
BOI and Anglo still above a euro though.

coc wrote:

ISEQ has fallen off a cliff since Wall Street opened. Currently down 150 (6%).

'Tis an ugly little picture alright - only 260 points away from having a "1" at the start.

coc wrote:

BOI and Anglo still above a euro though.

Are these banks the Zombies Morgan Kelly was talking about ? They have enough capital to cover their business until 2010 or something according to the radio and the Price Waterhouse Coopers audit - is it that they can't really expand, lend too much, take risks or try to grow now that the Government Guarantee is in effect ?


Link to a post by cactus flower quoting Morgan Kelly.

Is EVM going to save the Nation?