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 MN Tea Leaves:

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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:37 am

cactus flower wrote:
Reading the line, nothing like this since the 1930s.

But it's a graph expressed in the logarithmic scale so it distorts the differences across the chart.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:41 am



Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Reading the line, nothing like this since the 1930s.

But it's a graph expressed in the logarithmic scale so it distorts the differences across the chart.

So it's not comparable to the small dip around 1937 at all but more comparable to if not worse than .....
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:44 am

What happened to that graph - did someone sit on it or what? Can we not find a proper one?
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:52 am

cactus flower wrote:
What happened to that graph - did someone sit on it or what? Can we not find a proper one?

It's adjusted logarithmically - which is what usually happens to long-term graphs. Here is a linear graph of similar data:

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/djindexes-com/big.chart?

In absolute terms, it's the worst fall in the DJIA ever.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 2:00 am

Is this it Ard Taoiseach. Big falls after 911 as well.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20

This makes dwarfs out of all other dips ...
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 2:06 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
Is this it Ard Taoiseach. Big falls after 911 as well.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20

This makes dwarfs out of all other dips ...

Yeah, I don't think my link works the best. You see, linear graphs illustrate the absolute falls in the index's value while logarithmic ones show the relative falls. A fall from 10,000 to 9,000 isn't as bad as a fall from 2,000 to 1,000 - yet they look the same on a linear graph. The logarithmic graph smooths out those inconsistencies to give an even evolution of a trend. That said, the linear graph is both more arresting and indicative of the mire into which the Dow is rapidly descending.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 27, 2009 6:23 pm

Nowhere near 6000 after two weeks but probably new lows .... Could there even be a 6 at the front of the Dow by the end of today ?


http://www.bloomberg.com/index_americas.html
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 27, 2009 10:54 pm

So, out of these two predictions, neither has come true. As Defender of the Tealogical Faith, it depresses me that these tea leaves have had such unimpressive early form yet wearing another hat I am delighted that these apocalyptic events have not, as of yet, come to pass. I am conflicted.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 27, 2009 11:14 pm

Well the second lad said that the Dow would reach new lows in the last fortnight - did it reach new lows? My red line below in the 5 year Dow chart


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 27, 2009 11:30 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
Well the second lad said that the Dow would reach new lows in the last fortnight - did it reach new lows? My red line below in the 5 year Dow chart


[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote[/url]]

Well that's not exactly the most earth-shattering of predictions. All it takes is for the Dow to have one bad day in the last fortnight for that prediction to be verified. It's not that hard to say.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 27, 2009 11:35 pm

Have you heard of the Plunge Protection team AT ?

75 points before there's a 6 there ....


Plunge Protection AT - Economic prophylactics. Do you think that even some of that 800bn is going to walstreetpro2?

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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 27, 2009 11:45 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
Have you heard of the Plunge Protection team AT ?

75 points before there's a 6 there ....


Plunge Protection AT - Economic prophylactics. Do you think that even some of that 800bn is going to walstreetpro2?


Not heretofore. I doubt that much of the $800 billion stimulus package will go to the likes of them since they would be on the political margins.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sat Feb 28, 2009 1:18 am

AT :

The Dow ended up at 7062 - a new low since about 2003. I think your man was talking about 'resistance levels on the way up and down .... the resistance level which it broke to get up 10,000 seems to have started at 4000 in 1995 and he's predicting that it's going to end up at 4000 fairly soon again now or at least it's on its way there.



Do you think so and do you think it might take as long to go down as it went up - 5 years ?
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:54 am

In light of today's stock-exchange movements, I now believe that these tea-leaves have broadly proven their worth as the Dow is convincingly below the 7,000 level now.
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