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 MN Tea Leaves:

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PostSubject: MN Tea Leaves:   Sat Feb 07, 2009 10:51 am

tags: Reinhardt Financial Catastrophe Predicted for Feb. 9th/13th Dow to hit new low (c. 6000) in next 14 days. 15/02/09



Youtuber Mike has been following the predictions of an online guru, Reinhardt, 2 out of six of whose predictions have happened already - good enough odds for you to read on ? ...

Reinhardt predicted the Dow falls on 15th September and 6th October last, along with making 4 other predictions on his $700 pay-per-view website, 3 of which Mike doesn't know about but the last one, the sixth he says he does and it involves a decline in the dollar on Monday after a failure of the stimulus package, triggering tens of trillions of dollars worth of CDOs (credit default obligations) being called in, triggering a series of catastrophic bankruptcies across the globe, which will make a lot of money disappear very suddenly into the hands of a few....

These investment vehicles are financed with money from very ordinary concerns - municipalities, schools, rich people, common or garden investors, countries .... and it's this money which will suddenly be gone like the massive falls in share prices and pension funds we have seen ... And this will all happen next week. My opinion is that Mike believes the money will be turned into a massive crock of gold which will drive up the price, putting it suddenly out of the reach of ordinary investors and then the next thing will be 'Governments' clamouring for a return to the Gold Standard .....

Illuminati nonsense or genuine insider Tea Leaf work by the shady numerologist Reinhardt?? Whether it comes true or not, it's a well-presented little show by Mike below in three parts.

(Look out for Catholic connections to Ireland and the relevance of the number nine - this is the stuff that I thought the DaVinci code was going to be but I was robbed those hours of reading that book ..,)

Introduction



Pt 1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8EHcHjsZMk

Pt. 2.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Il1_A77OAIQ


Last edited by Auditor #9 on Tue Mar 03, 2009 5:39 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:10 pm

I did not read the davinci code because I read it 25 years ago.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sat Feb 07, 2009 7:01 pm

If you are a disciple of Martin Armstrong, then you will believe that the apocalypse in the financial world will happen exactly a month later. You pay your money and take your chances.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:28 am

I've had enough of financial catastrophes. If we HAVE to have another catastrophe, could we all please display a little more imagination this time??

Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:39 am

I'm planning on having a financial success... 20 euro on Ireland to win the grandslam, that will make me 180 euro in a month's time if all goes according to plan... tax free What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:53 am

Best of luck to yeh, and should improve national confidence if it happens. Even if it is only 11 men playing with odd shaped balls.... Laughing
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:06 am

15 men...
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:26 pm

Some of you might already have seen some of the shocking stuff below on the thread 'China Rocks the Dollar - trillion dollar drawdown'; here below is some of that footage again, this time cut with scenes from an 80s film (no, not Mad Max) called 'Rollover'. Anyone ever seen it ?

After you see it you will thank your stars that you haven't invested all your liquid in stocks and shares and then you may feel like you want to slip quietly and casually to the bank tomorrow as early as possible, whistling on the way where you will withdraw as much as they will allow you in one day. And immediately after that in the closest shopping centre or supermarket or hardware shop you may feel like you want to convert that money to hard items or commodities - food, petrol, a generator, water, a gun or you may perhaps feel like you should get your gold and flee to a place where there is at least a stable food supply.

If it is already tomorrow, Monday, where you are, then maybe you should go now .... before . it's . too ........... late ................Shocked What a Face


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ-IPb8AOZE
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:30 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
Some of you might already have seen some of the shocking stuff below on the thread 'China Rocks the Dollar - trillion dollar drawdown'; here below is some of that footage again, this time cut with scenes from an 80s film (no, not Mad Max) called 'Rollover'. Anyone ever seen it ?

After you see it you will thank your stars that you haven't invested all your liquid in stocks and shares and then you may feel like you want to slip quietly and casually to the bank tomorrow as early as possible, whistling on the way where you will withdraw as much as they will allow you in one day. And immediately after that in the closest shopping centre or supermarket or hardware shop you may feel like you want to convert that money to hard items or commodities - food, petrol, a generator, water, a gun or you may perhaps feel like you should get your gold and flee to a place where there is at least a stable food supply.

If it is already tomorrow, Monday, where you are, then maybe you should go now .... before . it's . too ........... late ................Shocked What a Face



[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ-IPb8AOZE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ-IPb8AOZE[/quote[/url]]

Congrats on 8,400 posts , Audi. I will take my chances with Credit Suisse. No hint of meltdown here (yet!)
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:43 pm

Do you think Switzerland would survive an international bank run if there was one ?

It's an interesting question to ponder - if money became worthless overnight, how would you in your community survive. Money only has value by convention ...

Now I'm off to the Great Depression of 2008+ thread Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 3:10 pm

Let me get this right, the theory goes that a bunch of fanatic catholic business men collapse the world economy by causing a run on 9 businesses causing positions to be called and in the end money flows back into banks? Why? Who gains in such a scenario?

We all know there is going to be printing to buy bonds, no surprise there. I would be off the opinion that major shares indexes have to fall a bit yet, but this sort of tale belongs in a James Bond novel.

EDIT

The end is nigh brigade are having a fine time recently.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:04 pm

Squire wrote:
Let me get this right, the theory goes that a bunch of fanatic catholic business men collapse the world economy by causing a run on 9 businesses causing positions to be called and in the end money flows back into banks? Why? Who gains in such a scenario?

We all know there is going to be printing to buy bonds, no surprise there. I would be off the opinion that major shares indexes have to fall a bit yet, but this sort of tale belongs in a James Bond novel.

EDIT

The end is nigh brigade are having a fine time recently.

You can't see any scenario where it could happen Squire?

Well, these CDOs are money that is promised only and they are in the order of trillions. If they were called then it would be like a global bank run where everyone wouldn't be able to get at their credit. Those who would gain would be the ones who knew before hand and took out their money ...

muhahha

However, the Baltic Dry index is apparently gaining strength again, which could make this scenario a bit of February mid-recession moon fever

http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

then again ... maybe not ... What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 9:26 pm

Audi

As I have said over and over it is all to do with confidence and mood. You can look at statistics and postulate about money supply etc etc and always the markets never do quite what they should and the reason is people do not behave rationally, they behave as a herd. It is part of human DNA. When mood changes we will have bottomed out. Rises and falls in commodities are all driven by this herd instinct and so will any future recovery. The basic underlying trend is of economic power moving East.

There are trillions and trillions of dollars, Euro, Sterling, Francs and Yen with no where to go. That is the key money in the current climate. When people start to allocate it and invest them we start to come out of the recession. But it is difficult to do at the minute as the future feels so uncertain and no one wants to jump first, but to make good profit you need to be ahead of the wave.

In my neck of the woods I feel a change of mood, and we are now starting to look tentatively at a number of possible investments in more detail. It is so we are well positioned when recovery comes. I can't see labour costs getting much lower than they are now as people have to live. Property and land may have further falls but there are many who may need to sell and there is value to be had if you look forward say 5 years. Even on rental there is now the possibility of returns.

I may stress that this is not Ireland related at the minute.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 08, 2009 9:47 pm

Squire wrote:
Audi

As I have said over and over it is all to do with confidence and mood. You can look at statistics and postulate about money supply etc etc and always the markets never do quite what they should and the reason is people do not behave rationally, they behave as a herd. It is part of human DNA. When mood changes we will have bottomed out. Rises and falls in commodities are all driven by this herd instinct and so will any future recovery. The basic underlying trend is of economic power moving East.

There are trillions and trillions of dollars, Euro, Sterling, Francs and Yen with no where to go. That is the key money in the current climate. When people start to allocate it and invest them we start to come out of the recession. But it is difficult to do at the minute as the future feels so uncertain and no one wants to jump first, but to make good profit you need to be ahead of the wave.

In my neck of the woods I feel a change of mood, and we are now starting to look tentatively at a number of possible investments in more detail. It is so we are well positioned when recovery comes. I can't see labour costs getting much lower than they are now as people have to live. Property and land may have further falls but there are many who may need to sell and there is value to be had if you look forward say 5 years. Even on rental there is now the possibility of returns.

I may stress that this is not Ireland related at the minute.

On the blue bit: I love the piece in that film where the old fella says that capital has a life of its own and is a force like the force of gravity - it will flow where it has to....

I understand that bit about confidence I think and if you look at the markets generally then you should say there is enough confidence there shouldn't you? The DOW has lost its bubbliness and is hanging around 8000 and is ocassionally seen heading towards 9000 so you'd imagine it's in a pre-bubble stage.

Tell me this and tell me no more: When should banks stop lending ? Do they know when ? You go and get a 100k loan from a bank with your 10k and I go with mine and he goes with his and so on and on and on and we all build houses buy cars have holidays etc. etc. etc. When should banks stop giving out those loans ?
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:58 am

Banks should not lend to those who cannot afford the loan, obviously!

With all the credit cards etc it can be difficult to tell just how bad some people's finances are. There is some work that I have an involvement with, and it is apparent that it is not necessarily the mortgages that are the problem, but levels of overall debt. Also that many people who are in trouble are there due to change of circumstance such as illness or loss of job rather than reckless lending. A lot of it is not as bad as you would imagine often people are marginally in trouble and the dropping of interest rates has made a big difference for many!

People talk about tightening up on Bank Regulation, I think we also need to tighten up on availability of overall personal credit, not sure how. Kill the growth in personal credit and you will start to get some sense back into the economy. You will remove the sectors of the economy that are reliant on debt and unproductive consumption, get some true levels of employment and I think also the start of some reality. The big problem in the West is a refusal to come to terms with reducing competitiveness. We need to address that problem or we will be the the Africa of the 22nd Century.

However the Banks woes are worse than bad loans, they have circumvented what regulation there was and have inadequate reserves. 1 or 2 in 100 default and they are in trouble. Totally irresponsible.

At the minute Banks will lend to people who doesn't need it. What money they can get their hands on is going to plug holes in their own structures. That which is left seems to be going elsewhere as they believe that lending to individuals is generally risky and if enough of them think that then economies stagnate and yes lending then is proven to be risky. It can become self fulfilling.

However there is the group that strictly speaking 'don't need the banks money'. They are solvent, perhaps own land and property and are getting a steady enough income, or have finished deals or projects and have substantial sums sitting. Or they could even be people in secure employment. Once these people start to borrow and leverage up to invest longer term or just buy a new house is when I think the economy will again grind forward. Right now they are probably in government bonds, or perhaps commodities or in the case of secure employment reducing any debt they may have. Once these people start to move the Banker's mood will change. Confidence and despair feed off themselves.

I still think the markets will drift about through the first half of this year and probably well into the Autumn, but at my end mood seems to be changing. Let's hope that continues and gathers pace into the spring. Don't forget however what I do will take a few years to create more widespread employment so I am not saying it is over, but that there seems to be a likelihood of a general recovery 2011, but with job creation in the planning and design end in the interim.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:51 am

There was a breakdown in communication or regulation or something that led to 'too many loans' I'm thinking - someone on the radio last week said that twenty years of development were concertina'd into ten years so now we have to wait for demand to start all over again - if the lack of demand in the interim won't somehow have dimmed production/demand in the long run.

Another blogger I've just been hearing about has some comments saying that some things that will raise it out of recession will be the continued population growth - it's increasing at 1.7 million per week so that's something that will keep up demand AND something big could happen if Chinese and Indians become gadget-junkies.

It'd be gas though if demand had utterly been solved by supply and so had effectively collapsed forever and there was enough stuff for everyone everywhere - that we had entered the era of Peak Stuff ....

We'd have to take a different tack then ...
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 6:13 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
There was a breakdown in communication or regulation or something that led to 'too many loans' I'm thinking - someone on the radio last week said that twenty years of development were concertina'd into ten years so now we have to wait for demand to start all over again - if the lack of demand in the interim won't somehow have dimmed production/demand in the long run.

Another blogger I've just been hearing about has some comments saying that some things that will raise it out of recession will be the continued population growth - it's increasing at 1.7 million per week so that's something that will keep up demand AND something big could happen if Chinese and Indians become gadget-junkies.

It'd be gas though if demand had utterly been solved by supply and so had effectively collapsed forever and there was enough stuff for everyone everywhere - that we had entered the era of Peak Stuff ....

We'd have to take a different tack then ...

Audi!!! You're forgetting Albert Bartlett and the exponential function!!!! Growth is a BAD thing - population, economic, consumption etc etc. Jeez old man!!!!!
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 10:55 am

Aragon wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
There was a breakdown in communication or regulation or something that led to 'too many loans' I'm thinking - someone on the radio last week said that twenty years of development were concertina'd into ten years so now we have to wait for demand to start all over again - if the lack of demand in the interim won't somehow have dimmed production/demand in the long run.

Another blogger I've just been hearing about has some comments saying that some things that will raise it out of recession will be the continued population growth - it's increasing at 1.7 million per week so that's something that will keep up demand AND something big could happen if Chinese and Indians become gadget-junkies.

It'd be gas though if demand had utterly been solved by supply and so had effectively collapsed forever and there was enough stuff for everyone everywhere - that we had entered the era of Peak Stuff ....

We'd have to take a different tack then ...

Audi!!! You're forgetting Albert Bartlett and the exponential function!!!! Growth is a BAD thing - population, economic, consumption etc etc. Jeez old man!!!!!

What about exponential growth in levels of poverty-amelioration, growth in numbers of people educated on the planet, growth in numbers of people cycling, walking doing other exerceise

Similarly for growth in
penetration of renewable energy
awareness of politics and policy by the general populace
quantities of organic produce being cultivated
numbers of real artists and musicians doing their thing as well as numbers of people making and consuming Independent film
numbers of people doing DIY and repair and demanding more locally-produced, Fairtrade or Eco-friendly products
efforts to preserve threatened species and also languages
medical knowledge and technology
numbers of people travelling to learn a foreign language or reading the Classics or writing and publishing books
Irish native forestry
litres of water saved in the leaking water system here
kilometres of roads getting turned into cycle lanes
numbers of old houses being insulated
levels of cultural awareness and acceptance of foreign cultures and willingness to lean about foreign cultures

What about that ??
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 11:57 am

I think the problem rests with how we measure growth. Usage and the consequences of destruction are measured as growth. So chopping the forest down is increased economic activity but there should be a part of the accounts that shows a decrease in stock unless the trees are re-planted. Also if someone were to bomb the centre of a town the repairs would also be seen as an increase in activity but in reality all it is is making good loss.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:09 pm

This lad expands a bit more on the first videos above. He says the companies which were 'bailed out' (by Paulson?) are the exact same companies who are in the firing line for these CDOs.....

He's not convinced by the source (Reinhardt), he says, but he has done some research on it and he is aware that Reinhardt has made some accurate predictions in the past.

He says that this conspiracy theory stuff is not his normal thing and that he usually does Gold and Silver videos.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhsDMv4XKbE


If you found that interesting you might also like his 3 min follow-up to that on the numerology of where the Gold and Silver price ended last time ....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuUlX0LLEd0
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:21 pm

Squire wrote:
I think the problem rests with how we measure growth. Usage and the consequences of destruction are measured as growth. So chopping the forest down is increased economic activity but there should be a part of the accounts that shows a decrease in stock unless the trees are re-planted. Also if someone were to bomb the centre of a town the repairs would also be seen as an increase in activity but in reality all it is is making good loss.
That's a great point - no one here really knows how growth is really measured, do we? Neither do we really know what wealth is. I would see the quantity of forest for example as having multi-values, some of which might not be measurable in economic terms at all.

For example the potential for leisure pursuits might not be something included in wealth and the growth of leisure pursuits will hardly be included in growth yet it could be proven to have a positive impact on the person directly in terms of psychology and health plus the locality will benefit from cleaner air and increased biodiversity ... things which are unquantifiable, invisible yet essential for life.

Not even the calorific value of forests might be measured if it came down to it. How much combustible fuel do we potentially have? And if this is measured, are these forests planted sustainably so you are now quanitfying how much combustion you can have over what period of time. That's not to take into account what the farmer gets paid, what his wealth is, how much CO2 is saved if that fuel is combusted, how much is offset in imports of coal, the potential for more and more growth of that nature on the back of all that - more leisure, more farming, more offsetting of CO2 and imports, more secondary industries of all nature's from tree-pruners to free-food collectors to adventure sports enthusiasts, to craftsmen, artisans, artists ...

I'd say only the market value of industrial timber is measured
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:49 pm

Audi

I am with you on forests and Expat on energy, we are running out of both. (Which is one of the reasons why extreme environmentalists and their condemnation of concrete is very very wrong) In Ireland look at the square miles of high land and poor land that are left bare.

Looking ahead we will need wood for building, making furniture. It is a great material when used in the proper conditions. You don't even need nature trees for some activities, you coppice willow for basket making and energy crops, for particle boards you only need young trees yet Ireland imports this and not necessarily from countries with cheap labour but other western countries?!?!

However we also need to take a long view and start planting beeches, oaks and other hardwoods.

Take a look round Ireland there is land unused everywhere and particularly in the west there are small rivers that could power villages and towns. IMO it would be easy enough to get locally owned schemes off the ground in both energy production and forestry.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:13 pm

Employment growth without production or consumer growth.


One of the welcome effects of a recession as it works its way out is the growth of new small to medium businesses taking the place of large concerns which have gone bust. In sustainable employment terms this is a very good thing as the percentage of overall market share/turnover per employee is very much less in small business compared to large concerns.
The figures for Ireland show that for turnover of 7% of total, small to medium business employs 22% of the workforce as against large business which does 93% of business with while only employing 78% of the work force.
In very simple terms and allowing that nothing is very simple, in theory we could triple the number of sustainable jobs in the private sector (1.6 million x 3, think of all the new houses we would need Smile ) without producing or consuming any more than we do now, if you follow my thinking.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:30 pm

tonys wrote:
Employment growth without production or consumer growth.


One of the welcome effects of a recession as it works its way out is the growth of new small to medium businesses taking the place of large concerns which have gone bust. In sustainable employment terms this is a very good thing as the percentage of overall market share/turnover per employee is very much less in small business compared to large concerns.
The figures for Ireland show that for turnover of 7% of total, small to medium business employs 22% of the workforce as against large business which does 93% of business with while only employing 78% of the work force.
In very simple terms and allowing that nothing is very simple, in theory we could triple the number of sustainable jobs in the private sector (1.6 million x 3, think of all the new houses we would need Smile ) without producing or consuming any more than we do now, if you follow my thinking.

It would certainly be a helluva lot more stable if our collective national business turnover was spread among a much greater number of smaller business than being overly reliant on too few big businesses. There is too much emphasis on foreign big business what is more. Those are only ever going to be fair weather friends, as we are finding out. They play a significant role in booming the economy, with massive injections of cash from the national purse, and the when the inevitable bust results, they take off. Poland may be feeling smug now, but it too will be jilted at the altar in due course. Better that we have thousands of small and medium sized business as reliant as possible on native resources for economic self-sufficiency.


Last edited by Aragon on Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Mon Feb 09, 2009 1:33 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
Squire wrote:
I think the problem rests with how we measure growth. Usage and the consequences of destruction are measured as growth. So chopping the forest down is increased economic activity but there should be a part of the accounts that shows a decrease in stock unless the trees are re-planted. Also if someone were to bomb the centre of a town the repairs would also be seen as an increase in activity but in reality all it is is making good loss.
That's a great point - no one here really knows how growth is really measured, do we? Neither do we really know what wealth is. I would see the quantity of forest for example as having multi-values, some of which might not be measurable in economic terms at all.

For example the potential for leisure pursuits might not be something included in wealth and the growth of leisure pursuits will hardly be included in growth yet it could be proven to have a positive impact on the person directly in terms of psychology and health plus the locality will benefit from cleaner air and increased biodiversity ... things which are unquantifiable, invisible yet essential for life.

Not even the calorific value of forests might be measured if it came down to it. How much combustible fuel do we potentially have? And if this is measured, are these forests planted sustainably so you are now quanitfying how much combustion you can have over what period of time. That's not to take into account what the farmer gets paid, what his wealth is, how much CO2 is saved if that fuel is combusted, how much is offset in imports of coal, the potential for more and more growth of that nature on the back of all that - more leisure, more farming, more offsetting of CO2 and imports, more secondary industries of all nature's from tree-pruners to free-food collectors to adventure sports enthusiasts, to craftsmen, artisans, artists ...

I'd say only the market value of industrial timber is measured

There's a discussion elsewhere here on finding a different measure of productivity, that takes into account well-being and sustainability and not just growth. Joseph Stiglitz is involved with a project to do this.

Ireland is not in the same position as England. We are in the worst position in the EU. There is a different feeling here in the UK. The cranes are still up and working here and I've met engineers here who are working and not worried. There are massive problems but for the moment there is still a functioning economy.

Ireland is in the most dangerous position in the EU. We are not competitive, our infrastructure and systems are still only partly developed and we are grossly overdependent on Foreign Direct Investment firms - 90 per cent of our exports are FDI.
All we get from these firms is wages - the profits are largely repatriated. They are moving on, as Dell shows, to cheaper locations. As individuals we have amongst the highest debts. We have a very small home market/population and are for these reasons one the economies most vulnerable to protectionism if it kicks in. We are tied in to a high bill for public sector services. There is a vicious spiral of job losses and shrinking expenditure followed by more job losses. We have a Government that is all over the place. We did have a number of pluses, including a low starting point of National debt, but that is ratcheting up by the minute. Worse, the Bank Guarantee means our public debt is incalculable, and has pushed our borrowing costs right up.

Nobody is prepared to talk about the obvious, which is what happens next year when this year's borrowed billions run out, in the event that we can't borrow more (or only at an astronomic price)? Cowen has said that the economy will shrink permanently - whilst he is pushing up our indebtedness. Ireland is currently on a road to default. Government's response is to hack around in a random way at public services and benefits, whilst shovelling billions into trying to shore up the assets of a small handful of developers.

I am interested in rockyracoon's picture of Monaghan, where things appear to be pretty much business as usual. As one of the counties that participated less in the boom, perhaps they have less activity going on that is vulnerable to this stage of economic shrinkage.
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