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 MN Tea Leaves:

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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:03 pm

floatingingalway wrote:
Heads up folks. Red Alert

He's good for the horror economics but what does it mean? Forced liquidation on a massive scale. I don't know if it's significant but WTI Crude is up 10% and the US Dollar against a basket of currencies - swiss, euro, stg, aud, canadian dollar, yen etc. is also up http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_dx

Quote :
Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."

The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.

To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.

Unfortunately.

I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:13 pm

Can anyone translate this into plain English?
Quote :
Watch the Euro crosses in particular; if there is an "ignition" sort of
event you won't miss it (a ~500 pip near-vertical move would not
surprise, on top of the 150 pips we've already taken tonight.)
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:55 pm

floatingingalway wrote:
Can anyone translate this into plain English?
Quote :
Watch the Euro crosses in particular; if there is an "ignition" sort of
event you won't miss it (a ~500 pip near-vertical move would not
surprise, on top of the 150 pips we've already taken tonight.)

Quote :
When day trading currencies, the term PIP is used often. A pip, which stands for "price interest point," represents the smallest fluctuation in the price of a currency. This is similar to the "tick" concept for stocks.
http://www.geocities.com/daytradingtutor/currency-pips.htm
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 4:22 pm

EDIT - wrong thread!
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 5:40 pm

floatingingalway wrote:
Can anyone translate this into plain English?
Quote :
Watch the Euro crosses in particular; if there is an "ignition" sort of
event you won't miss it (a ~500 pip near-vertical move would not
surprise, on top of the 150 pips we've already taken tonight.)

The dollar is the big Kahuna or the Reserve Currency. Therefore all the other currencies tend to move in the same direction relative to it. So if the euro is up against the dollar then it is lightly that the yen, pound and other currencies are up practically the same amount.

So the euro crosses is a glance accross the rates of the euro not against the dollar but how the euro is trading against the yen pounds, aussie etc etc. Normally these differences will be much less and therefore tend to be less traded.

What is being said is that for example if the euro is up a lot against the pound then something is afoot. That is stating the obvious in financial jive talk.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:17 pm

The Yen was up around 20% against the dollar this last year, and this may be a contributing factor in the economic woes of that country. GDP declined in the last quarter by over 12% annualised.

It is a bit like the Euro and sterling problem. Japan cannot afford to lose competitive position against Korea, China etc.

Shrinking markets and the competition gets fierce.


For myself I would argue that the Yen and other Asian currencies were and are under valued.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:57 pm

youngdan wrote:
floatingingalway wrote:
Can anyone translate this into plain English?
Quote :
Watch the Euro crosses in particular; if there is an "ignition" sort of
event you won't miss it (a ~500 pip near-vertical move would not
surprise, on top of the 150 pips we've already taken tonight.)

The dollar is the big Kahuna or the Reserve Currency. Therefore all the other currencies tend to move in the same direction relative to it. So if the euro is up against the dollar then it is lightly that the yen, pound and other currencies are up practically the same amount.

So the euro crosses is a glance accross the rates of the euro not against the dollar but how the euro is trading against the yen pounds, aussie etc etc. Normally these differences will be much less and therefore tend to be less traded.

What is being said is that for example if the euro is up a lot against the pound then something is afoot. That is stating the obvious in financial jive talk.

Good thanks. If the Euro was up then what would be afoot ? Because the dollar is strengthening .... but that's not going to last is it ??? And investors will pile into the Euro is it ???

Mike the Doomtuber is in on the game now too and he has a bunch of (credible?) links to the likes of the FT, Telegraph, WSJ on this business with the Eastern European countries. Apparently they will default and cause a bit of banking bother around the place (in Europe - anything to do with the Euro ??)

The Horror Economics is getting more Horrifically Economical by the day.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9w6DhQhPps
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:21 pm

I've been telling you lads to stock up on the baked beans for nearly a year now, and you have to go hooring around on the internet looking for your sick financial crash thrills. Mad
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:24 pm

cactus flower wrote:
I've been telling you lads to stock up on the baked beans for nearly a year now, and you have to go hooring around on the internet looking for your sick financial crash thrills. Mad
Are you SERIOUSLY stocking up on stuff ?!?!? If you give me a good reason then I'll stock up too although I might do it anyway....

Or is it

dandan
daaan ....

too late ? Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:44 am

I gave a report on baked beans here about 2 months ago citing how many you can store in your average cupboard etc.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:51 am

johnfás wrote:
I gave a report on baked beans here about 2 months ago citing how many you can store in your average cupboard etc.

Please don't freak me out more than I am freaking myself out.

I vaguely remember you talking about that now but I don't know what context it was in. How many tins of beans have you got so ? They're only 29c each in Tescos Wink

Here's Mike talking about the submarine event .... with a horrific, Vincent Price twist. (5:30)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca10kH8sPjA

Vincent Price has a good Horror Economics name so he has.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:54 am

You can nearly half my cost estimates given that baked beans are currently under serious deflationary pressure:

johnfás wrote:
Baked Beans are very good for you. They contain
antioxidants which protect the cells within your body, as well as
protecting you from various diseases. Low in fat, full of fibre and
protein as well as being a valuable source of iron, folic acid and
potassium.

A 150g tin of beans costs about 45 cent at the
supermarket and measures 6.7cm in diameter x 5.5 cm tall. The best
before date on a tin is approximately one year after you buy it though
I am quite sure it would last longer. The average cupboard in my
kitchen is 57cm wide, 32cm deep and 66cm tall. Consequently each
cupboard in my kitchen could comfortably store 384 150g tins of beans
at a cost of €172.80.

Now there is food security.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:16 am

cactus flower wrote:
I've been telling you lads to stock up on the baked beans for nearly a year now, and you have to go hooring around on the internet looking for your sick financial crash thrills. Mad

Dig for victory, it is so much more fun. Turn the lawn into a cabbage patch, plant the rhubarb and get those rows of potatoes in. I reckon coats made of rabbit pelts will be all the fashion next winter.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:18 am

Nah I think baked beans are a better bet... given all the violent uprising that is being predicted it might not be possible to go into your garden Razz.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 2:25 am

Towards the End of Week One we see how Vision Victory's prediction is going ... he reckoned the Dow would go close to 6000 if it breaks through a "resistance barrier" ... Any guesses as to where it will end up tomorrow - there was some big falls this week...




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avE_A.ZCcC64&refer=home

Quote :
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a six-year low, as Hewlett-Packard Co. cut its profit forecast and concern about rising credit-card defaults dragged financial shares to the lowest level since 1995.

Hewlett-Packard, the world’s largest personal-computer maker, fell 7.9 percent and technology companies were the biggest drag on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. fell 14 percent each to lead the Dow’s retreat. Prudential Financial Inc. slid 16 percent after losing its ability to borrow under a government program because of a credit-rating downgrade.

The S&P 500 slid 1.2 percent to 778.94, extending its 2009 loss to 14 percent in its worst start to a year. The Dow dropped 89.68 points, or 1.2 percent, to 7,465.95, the lowest since October 2002. The Russell 2000 Index declined 1.5 percent.

“The market is trying to digest the severity of the economic slowdown and its effects on tech stocks and capital spending going forward,” said Giri Cherukuri, who helps manage $1.1 billion at Oakbrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois. “People are thinking it’s maybe going to be more severe than expected. That’s going to affect spending for the rest of 2009.”
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:23 am

Audi

You will probably enjoy this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNcLKbJs3xk
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:30 am

Squire wrote:
Audi

You will probably enjoy this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNcLKbJs3xk

Good lord I just found that earlier too on youtube ! Haven't started watching it yet - still wallowing in the Depression a bit and yet to innure myself to the idea of a recovery based on tech if that's what I understand it is.

Does he say we will be liberated from the sham and drudgery that some poor basutrards think is the pinnacle of their existence: work?
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:36 am

It is quite humorous assent of man, well almost man, stuff.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:54 am

Ascent of Man by Jacob Bronowski ? It's humourous ?? I'd imagined it would be serious.

I think I came across it on Mike's videos. The one who prophesised the End of the Money at the start of this thread two weeks ago.

I'm still on the Crash Course - Chapter 10 inflation. Also watching Ray Mears Wild Foods.

Jaysus these youtubes are stacking up like books .... scratch


http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-10-inflation
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:03 am

Regulation of money supply is necessary but I don't think it is as easy as some make out. It is not you or I who are the problem for if I borrow 1 million I have to pay it back plus some. So in the cycle I am putting more back than I take out. The problem is government and those who can create money by whatever means. Money that has no relation to growth or contraction of the economy. Governments can not only spend money they don't have but have the added advantage of being able to print it. That is basically a hidden tax. Indeed you have to wonder why they bother with tax at all, why not just give up the pretence and print? Every so often they could issue the new dollar, which is worth 1000 of the old ones. Think of the savings in the revenue.

In times of plenty governments should not be running up deficits but should instead be neutral or in surplus. What of them ever do this?

However I don't particularly mind a bit of inflation, it culls the weak. Perhaps we need bouts of chaos every so often to shake things up. Large tree falls and gives opportunity to the saplings growing below it?
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:51 pm

Squire wrote:
Audi

You will probably enjoy this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNcLKbJs3xk

Exhilarating. Didn't I say there would be a biotech revolution soon ? Ok maybe it won't take off for a good while but already we are growing trachaeas from stem cells of the donor.

There is a robot in that piece from Boston Dynamics (?) at around 13 mins. and it's worth watching just for that one alone.

Homo Evolutis though .... ? Homo Revolutis at the minute.


This is how America just opened:


http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3

Resistance levels going to be broken ? S&P 500 heading towards 1997 levels around 800 too ....
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Sun Feb 22, 2009 12:42 am

Man of Truth:

"American Banks are insolvent - they will be nationalised soon.

Buy my DVD."


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBUC7c63JkM
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:27 am

Vision Victory just over a week ago predicted that the Dow would fall massively over the two weeks following his prediction. He believed it would go towards 6000 by the end of the week.

Could it bounce back this week ? If it doesn't then it could continue to go to 1995 levels,

Below are today's chart and the entire historical Dow Jones..



http://www.bloomberg.com/


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:02 am

Reading the line, nothing like this since the 1930s.
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PostSubject: Re: MN Tea Leaves:   Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:10 am

No, the last time looks like c.1937 whatever happened then - just before the Second war to end all wars.

Another guy is saying it will go in April now - when taxes come in way under what they should and also something about the Bond markets possibly going wrong then.
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