The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Respvblica wrote:

Moneys all about trust. If theres no trust then its all just a load of paper. What then?

I agree the problem is trust and until you sort that out no point throwing bags of our money at the problem. But the indecision is now in danger of freezing up the entire economy. We need effective political leadership, NOW which is well over a year late.

Squire wrote:

Respvblica wrote:

Moneys all about trust. If theres no trust then its all just a load of paper. What then?

I agree the problem is trust and until you sort that out no point throwing bags of our money at the problem. But the indecision is now in danger of freezing up the entire economy. We need effective political leadership, NOW which is well over a year late.

Thats right. Unfortunately I dont think our system can be relied upon to give effective leadership in moments of crisis like this. And its a european/global issue too. Other countries leaders are looking equally useless.
I think paardoxiacally that the US were in a potentially stronger position than us when congress first voted against Paulsons plan. There was the issue, however slight, of actually bringing the political leadership which had allowed the crisis to account. That helps trust.
I'll admit that this is a controversial analysis but I do think that transparency and accountability are involved somewhere in all of this. This along with enforced regulation of course. My view is that it is not the country which acts fastest that is spared most but rather the one that has the most transparent and democratically accountable system.

This is how I think it is related.
Prosperity-> money -> TRUST-> popular accountability -> direct democracy

NIKKEI 225 down 5.3% since opening and falling. It is now at a 5 year low.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT2610320081007?rpc=44


EDIT

Rest of Asia is also opening down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Some gloom tomorrow in all probability. I truely wish this was over and done with so that we can assess the future with a bit more clarity (good or bad). This guessing game does not suite my temperament, I much prefer scenarios that I can control. Interest rate cuts next card to play?

ISEQ tanking south this morning. Down 4.82% and moving

So there must be tons of good bargains on the ISEQ now - I hear they're flogging Waterford Wedgewood shares in TK Maxx for a fraction of a cent each. You can now buy 200,000 Waterford Wedgewood shares for a weeks dole if the broker's fee was zero but they take a cut according to the number of shares you buy I'd say, robbers.

Still I wouldn't want to spend any dough helping uncle Anto out when I need every penny for fags, drink and a few games of pool at the weekend. A bag of curried chips used to be #58 Crispy Lemon Chicken at Yu Won Moh's little restaurant at the corner of Eamon Devalera and Michael Collins streets but now's it just curried chips in Supersnacks where there used to be childhood rumours that the curry was made from melted down animals grabbed from the pound.

Ryanair shares are still over 2 quid a share just now but I might move in when they reach 2 cents a share as the bird got a good few trips to the Costa last year so it might be worth something if it ever picks up again.

My ambition at the moment is to spot a few bank managers down the Labour... If anyone can let me know of any bargains I might forego that bag of chips next week for a bag of a few hundred share as it's the bird's birthday next week. I'd say she'd love a couple of thousand Aer Lingus shares as she used to have an ambition to apply for the company as an air hostess. They wouldn't take her now unless they were paying wages inversely proportional to weight

According to Davy Stockbrokers it's down 8.37% now. Slightly better according to Yahoo finance at 6.03%
Either way it's time for parachutes methinks

Now, I'm totally confused. I really expected the European bourses to rise today, at least until the US markets opened. The Dow and S&P500 rallied back more than half-way from their lows yesterday.

And what the f . . . blazes is happening to the ISEQ and IFIN (financails)? They're giving everything from the bail-out back again.

Any inside scoops? Is the liquidity bogey-man peeping from under the bed again?

Maybe the big boyos/girls are just playing games. I hope.

Irish Life and Permanent down 30%!

floatingingalway wrote:

According to Davy Stockbrokers it's down 8.37% now. Slightly better according to Yahoo finance at 6.03%
Either way it's time for parachutes methinks

not golden surely?

zakalwe wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

According to Davy Stockbrokers it's down 8.37% now. Slightly better according to Yahoo finance at 6.03%
Either way it's time for parachutes methinks

not golden surely?

Oh no, not golden - the colour doesn't suit me. Give me red silk any day

It is Banks Banks Banks and Banks again. This is tiresome. It was Banks Banks and Banks last year; so government by the slow on the uptake.

I can't see sanity returning until that sector is sorted, and to anyone with any sense, that will obviously take more than bags of someone else's money. Banks need to be cleansed and restructured and they as entities need to take a hit. They have well and truely screwed up and that is what happens to businesses that behave imprudently and perhaps irresponsibility. Yes restructure them, yes guarantee deposits, but the cost of restructuring must be at the expense of the share and bond holders. Yes that will impact pensions etc but unfortunately there isn't really any alternative. If this is done properly it may be that some of the value is saved, but if we do nothing and dither about the likely damage to pensions etc will be greater as the contagion spreads.

Meanwhile the rest of us are supposed to make decisions in limbo land. It is like trying to run a business and decide the future in purgatory. It has got to the stage where it is beyond me to make what I consider rational decisions.

This should have been sorted a year and more ago and the longer it goes on the worse the outcome for everyone. Really starting to get well and truely annoyed.

I predicted property crash easy, decide to get out of dollars, Euro and Sterling into Swiss, Yen and Renminbi and some other Eastern, some out of convenience and some necessity. Sort of OK but overall seriously inconvenient and more accounts than a squirrel has buried nuts. As projects end more cash and ending up buying trinkets, in fact even being paid in them, not a good sign. There is simply nothing else sensible to do but sit and wait. Either that or employ a gypsy fortune teller for there is no possibility of making any sense out of how this is going to turn, yes I know down but just how quickly? Anyone investing in shares at the minute would need to have nerves of steel and a bottomless supply of money. There is absolutely no point for most of us. The risk is too great.

The longer that myself and many like me are in limbo land the longer and deeper this recession will be.

There is NO SHORTAGE OF MONEY it is a SHORTAGE OF CONFIDENCE, and in case any politicians drop in it takes more than reassurances to rebuild confidence.

Someone PLEASE just do whatever is needed to cleanse the banks and do it NOW!! If heads roll and a few developments and developers come unstuck so what, the damage in delaying is greater than the risk taken by jumping. I really don't care if Bankers are taken out and publicly executed, but do something to show that you mean business and that it is more than a cosy cartel.

AS for ISEQ 3387 and bouncing around, but trend is down.

Becoming truely annoyed.

If a child misbehaves - the good parent lets them know that they have done wrong and tells them not to do it again. If they do it again, the good parent demonstrates that the behaviour is unacceptable by punishing said child.
This gives the child the message that the parent will not accept their behaviour.
The bad parent, on the other hand, takes the easy route and ignores the behaviour of the child. They give empty threats that the child recognises as such. The punishment is never carried out and the child becomes an uncontrollable brat . The bad parent pays for this many times over.

floatingingalway wrote:

If a child misbehaves - the good parent lets them know that they have done wrong and tells them not to do it again. If they do it again, the good parent demonstrates that the behaviour is unacceptable by punishing said child.
This gives the child the message that the parent will not accept their behaviour.
The bad parent, on the other hand, takes the easy route and ignores the behaviour of the child. They give empty threats that the child recognises as such. The punishment is never carried out and the child becomes an uncontrollable brat . The bad parent pays for this many times over.

Well put. This child is turning out to be a right delinquent. Time for boot camp!


EDIT

By the way Pakistan is also in financial trouble.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3147266/Pakistan-facing-bankruptcy.html

Pakistan Rupee hits record low.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/48a5da9c-93ff-11dd-b277-0000779fd18c.html

Australia drops interest rates 1%. Other countries likely to follow but by how much?

ISEQ overall 3299 down 253 -5.76%

ISEQ Financial 3484 down 836 -16.04%


On close

BOI 3.40

Anglo 2.6

Allied Irish 5.50

Irish Life and P 3.75

Respvblica wrote:

Squire wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Noooooooooooooooooo !



Hopefully this computer graph is broken or else I'll be here all day watching the fallout

That graph's funny. Sure it might as well do that. It's been dying a slow death since last year.

At least we would all know that it has hit the floor.

There is lots of money about, but everyone is becoming increasingly paralysed because none of us can make sane decisions regarding even the relatively near future. The longer that continues the worse this recession will be.

Moneys all about trust. If theres no trust then its all just a load of paper. What then?

Think of a piece of elastic overstretched: think "ping". Money represents value. People try to detach it but it always reverts. I think what is happening is deflation, but they are calling it "lack of liquidity" . Money that doesn't represent value is disappearing off the system. It is not going to come back until more value is created. That means there is much less to lend and less to invest.

If governments print money and throw it into the "liquidity gap", stagflation will follow, as sure as night follows day.

CF

Looks to me like we are going Japanese.

Problem is whilst the politicians ponder and procrastinate no one will make decisions on investment. They could cost you severe loss with the stroke of a pen. Equally unless they initiate some very basic trading rules, and enforce them, no one can can invest with confidence. Banks and financial Institutions have acted in a manner that has brought their businesses into disrepute. That issue needs to be addressed with resolve. Bailing out and pally is not the right mode music.

It is not just the markets, but basic investment decisions regarding renewing plant and machinery, buildings, allocating money for research etc. that are all being deferred.

Right now there is plenty of money sitting around unused, but we are in real danger of ossifying. The political class need to go to bed early, get up early, cold shower and get down to it pronto for there is danger of the whole system ceasing up.


DOW is down over 3% to 9634 and falling

Could part of the problem be those who hold the trillions of dollars in currency aren't inclined to keep their dosh in Western institutions? Are excessively wealthy Middle Eastern billionaires sequestering their cash in their own banks or possibly in Far Eastern banks? Given the internationalism of capital and the ease with which money can be transferred, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where wealth is fleeing to apparent safe havens outside the US and Europe. It should be noted that the Japanese Yen is actually appreciating against the dollar (one of the few currencies to do so) indicating a flight into that safe haven. Of course, Dollars and Eurodollars can flow into any safe haven outside the EU and US as well.

rockyracoon wrote:

Could part of the problem be those who hold the trillions of dollars in currency aren't inclined to keep their dosh in Western institutions? Are excessively wealthy Middle Eastern billionaires sequestering their cash in their own banks or possibly in Far Eastern banks? Given the internationalism of capital and the ease with which money can be transferred, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where wealth is fleeing to apparent safe havens outside the US and Europe. It should be noted that the Japanese Yen is actually appreciating against the dollar (one of the few currencies to do so) indicating a flight into that safe haven. Of course, Dollars and Eurodollars can flow into any safe haven outside the EU and US as well.

It is not just the Middle Eastern billionaires. I had this discussion with YoungDan some time ago. I took a decision that the Euro, Dollar and Sterling were over valued and were heading for difficult times and acted accordingly. Swiss, Yen and Renminbi and some other Eastern currencies. It was as much a matter of convenience as strategy as basically we moved interests east ahead of the various property bubbles peaking. The problem now, what currency is safe? What Banks can you safely use? Having to watch currencies is a real headache that we could do well without. By the way signs of trading in gold and silver instead of currency out East!! But some countries like the mystique of precious metals.

Squire wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

Could part of the problem be those who hold the trillions of dollars in currency aren't inclined to keep their dosh in Western institutions? Are excessively wealthy Middle Eastern billionaires sequestering their cash in their own banks or possibly in Far Eastern banks? Given the internationalism of capital and the ease with which money can be transferred, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where wealth is fleeing to apparent safe havens outside the US and Europe. It should be noted that the Japanese Yen is actually appreciating against the dollar (one of the few currencies to do so) indicating a flight into that safe haven. Of course, Dollars and Eurodollars can flow into any safe haven outside the EU and US as well.

It is not just the Middle Eastern billionaires. I had this discussion with YoungDan some time ago. I took a decision that the Euro, Dollar and Sterling were over valued and were heading for difficult times and acted accordingly. Swiss, Yen and Renminbi and some other Eastern currencies. It was as much a matter of convenience as strategy as basically we moved interests east ahead of the various property bubbles peaking. The problem now, what currency is safe? What Banks can you safely use? Having to watch currencies is a real headache that we could do well without. By the way signs of trading in gold and silver instead of currency out East!! But some countries like the mystique of precious metals.

I've noted with some interest that Swiss banks have been particularly chipper, even smug, these days. And they had fairly large exposure to US toxic junk. Have Eurodollar deposits migrated into these banks?

Haven't been a fan of the gold bug myself, and the weakness of poor man's gold (silver), indicates that the big punters aren't so keen on the bullion these days. At some point in the future, if the price is right, I will indulge a wee bit of capital in bullion, but it is a long term project for myself.

I don't like Gold or Silver either. To me it is dead money but so is money sitting around as no one has the slightest idea what way to move next and in that case it has a value greater than paper. Right now it is about spreading assets and reducing risk, without tying up those assets.

As for Swiss Banking, ask no questions be told no lies, is probably their motto. They attract money from tin pot dictators and criminals the world over.

Squire wrote:

As for Swiss Banking, ask no questions be told no lies, is probably their motto. They attract money from tin pot dictators and criminals the world over.

That’s very true, international banking business sans morals, they’ve been at it for years.
Never seems to bother those who hold them up as paragons of political virtue though, maybe it’s enough that they're not us.

tonys wrote:

Squire wrote:

As for Swiss Banking, ask no questions be told no lies, is probably their motto. They attract money from tin pot dictators and criminals the world over.

That’s very true, international banking business sans morals, they’ve been at it for years.
Never seems to bother those who hold them up as paragons of political virtue though, maybe it’s enough that they're not us.

Nice barbed comment, tonys. No system is perfect, but I guess the system of direct democracy is not to everybody's taste. So, not paragons of political virtue but it's enough for me that they are not FF.

There is not a silver coin for sale in the entire country save individuals on e-bay etc. The mass delusion of fiat still holds but I reckon a few up in Iceland are learning the hard way.

Slim Buddha wrote:

tonys wrote:

Squire wrote:

As for Swiss Banking, ask no questions be told no lies, is probably their motto. They attract money from tin pot dictators and criminals the world over.

That’s very true, international banking business sans morals, they’ve been at it for years.
Never seems to bother those who hold them up as paragons of political virtue though, maybe it’s enough that they're not us.

Nice barbed comment, tonys. No system is perfect, but I guess the system of direct democracy is not to everybody's taste. So, not paragons of political virtue but it's enough for me that they are not FF.

I don’t know what your problem is, my post has nothing to do with you, but I’m glad you were mature enough to keep the rancour out of it.

Squire wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

Could part of the problem be those who hold the trillions of dollars in currency aren't inclined to keep their dosh in Western institutions? Are excessively wealthy Middle Eastern billionaires sequestering their cash in their own banks or possibly in Far Eastern banks? Given the internationalism of capital and the ease with which money can be transferred, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where wealth is fleeing to apparent safe havens outside the US and Europe. It should be noted that the Japanese Yen is actually appreciating against the dollar (one of the few currencies to do so) indicating a flight into that safe haven. Of course, Dollars and Eurodollars can flow into any safe haven outside the EU and US as well.

It is not just the Middle Eastern billionaires. I had this discussion with YoungDan some time ago. I took a decision that the Euro, Dollar and Sterling were over valued and were heading for difficult times and acted accordingly. Swiss, Yen and Renminbi and some other Eastern currencies. It was as much a matter of convenience as strategy as basically we moved interests east ahead of the various property bubbles peaking. The problem now, what currency is safe? What Banks can you safely use? Having to watch currencies is a real headache that we could do well without. By the way signs of trading in gold and silver instead of currency out East!! But some countries like the mystique of precious metals.

I'm wondering how Islamic Banking is weathering the crisis: http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp071210.htm