The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Not suggesting that a couple of bulls are leading markets. However, they are on the ascendency today. Dat's how the market opperate. It's a daily auction. If there is buying pressure, as evidenced by rising prices, the bulls are taking the day or the hour or the moment. It could change on a six pence. It's just that so much of the uncertainty surrounding the bail-out bill has been taken off the stage for awhile. There are some economic stats that will make interesting reading but they pale in comparison to the overall credit cruch picture. I just get the feeling that the markets are biding time until they get some gen on the big picture. If it was a football match, we're just watch the equivalent of a kick-about before the actual game starts.

If you take a look a FTSE 100 monthly volume this year (I have the figures somewhere) you'll see a sharp decrease from previous years. Less stock is being auctioned on a year-to-year basis in 2008. Many small investors have fled. There's no big push by the Hedge funds to take on new positions as they don't know where the bear market floor is. Of course, there's always a percentage of institutional day traders skimming off a few pence/cents on shares and buyers whose analysis tells them they have bargains and sellers who are willing to take losses given the present market conditions.

Did I read somewhere that someone bought a very large holding in a bank? I always find occurrences of this nature before bail outs or take overs very curious.

Squire wrote:

Did I read somewhere that someone bought a very large holding in a bank? I always find occurrences of this nature before bail outs or take overs very curious.

In this case it looks like the guy had been landed with it a few weeks ago, in lieu of taking a massive loss.

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Did I read somewhere that someone bought a very large holding in a bank? I always find occurrences of this nature before bail outs or take overs very curious.

In this case it looks like the guy had been landed with it a few weeks ago, in lieu of taking a massive loss.

Quinn. Reportedly lost €500,000,000 on a long CFD (contract for difference) punt on Anglo.

When buying the shares, he didn't offset the loss. He lost the c. 1/2 billion. However, he must have thought that Anglo share prices had reached rock bottom and bought a large holding in the company. He was wrong again and took a bath. If Anglo had gone out of business, or had been taken over in distressed cirsumstances, his shareholding could have become virtually worthless. He would have taken the biggest individual loss in Irish financial history. As of 12 o'clock last night, the govt gave Anglo a blank cheque to continue in business. I should say the Irish tax payer has just saved the personnel fortune of one of Ireland's wealthiest people. What difference a day makes for the mega-rich. Hell, he many now be in a position to take over Anglo in the foreseeable future.

A new phrase can be added to the lexicon spawned by this current financial crisis such as "too big too fail" we can add our Irish equivalent "too wealthy to fail".

Auditor #9 wrote:

True for johnfás - real savings and wealth could be destroyed. However, those depositors have the freedom to move their savings and indeed invested pensions should possibly be protected if they weren't invested on the stock market. To cactus - was there the time for debate? And ... Was it anti competitive?

EU executive to study Irish bank account guarantee

Quote :

BRUSSELS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The European Commission said on Tuesday it would study details of Ireland's decision to guarantee all bank deposits to see whether the move complied with European Union competition rules. "We have been in close touch with the Irish authorities. If there is any state aid involved we will look at it as a matter of urgency. We expect the details to be notified to the Commission very shortly," a Commission spokesman said.

The question of whether the ECB would allow or support bail outs of Irish banks by Government has been raised here by myself and other posters on P.ie. over the past while.

This again brings home the desperation of the measure and that it was left way, way too late. They have not even discussed it with the ECB ? As someone here said earlier, why wouldn't every depositor in Europe move their funds into the Irish banks? Of course it is anti-competitive. They should be working on Plan B: salvage of bankrupt banks, right now (think Sweden, not McWilliams).

Audi - the debate could have been held any time over the past year. Government has been in hiding and has refused to debate. No State of the Nation speech, no nothing.

Most pensions are invested in the stock market, and people paying into pensions don't control what is bought or not bought by the fund managers.

McWilliams in my view is a clown. If they are taking his advice, we are all in trouble.

Have we lost some posts?

Someone merged them into the thread on nationalisation of banks. Presumably because they were mostly about that!

ISEQ up around 90 points from yesterday but the trend in the last three quarters of an hour have been down. That's an interesting little spike there I circled ...



(sorry - image not showing)

Auditor #9 wrote:

ISEQ up around 90 points from yesterday but the trend in the last three quarters of an hour have been down. That's an interesting little spike there I circled ...



(sorry - image not showing)

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE

We need to amend the caption to the Picture of the Day. The reaction really wasn't that positive.

Gloom regarding the future economic outlook seems to be hitting Japan.

Nikkei 225 down about 1% at the moment.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225

The point of this is to show that the various bale outs of the financial sector are only part of the problem. Indeed it could be argued that the sector should have been sorted out long ago and failure to do so now sending us into a deep recession.

Major indexes down yesterday a couple of hundred points each - Dow around 10,500. The iseq shot up for the past few days and it will probably continue to do so but McWilliams is probably right that there will be plenty of turbulence in the market for the next while. In the case of the government promise the other day, could we see a game of profit-taking now for a while while the confidence is there?

There she goes ...

iseq

Noooooooooooooooooo !



Hopefully this computer graph is broken or else I'll be here all day watching the fallout

Maltesers anyone?

It fell 9.5% as it opened this morning but is bouncing up slightly - firesale prices - who's buying?

Is anyone else having problems with Yahoo finance. It's not kicking in for today at all

floatingingalway wrote:

Is anyone else having problems with Yahoo finance. It's not kicking in for today at all

I noticed earlier it was a lot slower alright - usually it's before the ISE with the graph.

It seems to be working ok now. It probably can't cope with the drastic drops going on across the board all over Europe at the moment

floatingingalway wrote:

It seems to be working ok now. It probably can't cope with the drastic drops going on across the board all over Europe at the moment

The FTSE100 - Barclay's and Anglo American down a fair bit and Cadbury's up! Must be the Maltesers ®

Seems that markets generally are not overly impressed by the bail outs for the financial institutions. It needs blood, heads need to roll and legislation used to ensure that that sector acts with due diligence in future.

By the way the Icelandic government has suspended trading in financial stocks.

http://www.forexyard.com/reuters/popup_reuters.php?action=2008-10-06T105358Z_01_L6265408_RTRIDST_0_ICELAND-MARKETS-UPDATE-3

Here is a link to the major European Indices. All in deep red. At the minute down between 4.5% and 7%.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/m6

Canny Scot wrote:

Update on daltonr's table:

AIB down 13%
BofI down 17%
Anglo down 25%
PTSB down 24%

Now what?

I think we might see that guarantee being called in the not too distant future.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=137915#p137915





Someone over on the Pin just said they've suspended stockmarket trading in Iceland ... and on Bloomberg a minute ago the Dow went below 10,000. It was at a high of 14,000 not so long ago.

Yes Iceland suspended trading in financials link in post above. ISEQ 3552

Bail out bluff called, and without short selling, must be all those wicked UK hedge funds unsettling the global markets.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Noooooooooooooooooo !



Hopefully this computer graph is broken or else I'll be here all day watching the fallout

That graph's funny. Sure it might as well do that. It's been dying a slow death since last year.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Noooooooooooooooooo !



Hopefully this computer graph is broken or else I'll be here all day watching the fallout

That graph's funny. Sure it might as well do that. It's been dying a slow death since last year.

At least we would all know that it has hit the floor.

There is lots of money about, but everyone is becoming increasingly paralysed because none of us can make sane decisions regarding even the relatively near future. The longer that continues the worse this recession will be.

Squire wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Noooooooooooooooooo !



Hopefully this computer graph is broken or else I'll be here all day watching the fallout

That graph's funny. Sure it might as well do that. It's been dying a slow death since last year.

At least we would all know that it has hit the floor.

There is lots of money about, but everyone is becoming increasingly paralysed because none of us can make sane decisions regarding even the relatively near future. The longer that continues the worse this recession will be.

Moneys all about trust. If theres no trust then its all just a load of paper. What then?