The weather thread

http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/081107015509.jyzwrbrq.html

Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago, according to studies published Thursday.
Researchers from Cornell University studied the increased introduction of fresh water from glacial melt, oceanic circulation, and the change in geographic range migration of oceanic plant and animal species.

The team, led by oceanographer Charles Greene, described "major ecosystem reorganization" -- or "regime shift" -- in the North Atlantic, a consequence of global warming on the largest scale in five millennia.

"The rate of warming we are seeing (now) is unprecedented in human history," said Greene, whose research appears in the November 2008 issue of the journal Ecology.

In order to forecast the path of climate change, Greene and colleagues have been reconstructing major episodes of warming and cooling in the Arctic over the past 65 million years.

They have found in the paleoclimate record periods of rapid cooling, with average temperatures plunging by 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees F) within just decades or even years.

But the rise in temperatures over the past five decades is unmatched since the onset of human civilization, Greene said.

Published Nov. 7 2008

wow, by those graphs temps are clearly rising. hang on, whats that on the x axis, "temperature change"??? thats different than actual temperature right? or am i misunderstanding the graph completely?

cactus flower wrote:

http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/081107015509.jyzwrbrq.html

Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago, according to studies published Thursday.
Researchers from Cornell University studied the increased introduction of fresh water from glacial melt, oceanic circulation, and the change in geographic range migration of oceanic plant and animal species.

The team, led by oceanographer Charles Greene, described "major ecosystem reorganization" -- or "regime shift" -- in the North Atlantic, a consequence of global warming on the largest scale in five millennia.

"The rate of warming we are seeing (now) is unprecedented in human history," said Greene, whose research appears in the November 2008 issue of the journal Ecology.

In order to forecast the path of climate change, Greene and colleagues have been reconstructing major episodes of warming and cooling in the Arctic over the past 65 million years.

They have found in the paleoclimate record periods of rapid cooling, with average temperatures plunging by 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees F) within just decades or even years.

But the rise in temperatures over the past five decades is unmatched since the onset of human civilization, Greene said.

Published Nov. 7 2008

hate to be pedantic but human history is only c3000 years. which in geological or climatological terms is the blink of a gnat's eye!

zakalwe wrote:

wow, by those graphs temps are clearly rising. hang on, whats that on the x axis, "temperature change"??? thats different than actual temperature right? or am i misunderstanding the graph completely?

It's the difference in temperature between the current (2000) average and the then prevailing temperature.

zakalwe wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/081107015509.jyzwrbrq.html

Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago, according to studies published Thursday.
Researchers from Cornell University studied the increased introduction of fresh water from glacial melt, oceanic circulation, and the change in geographic range migration of oceanic plant and animal species.

The team, led by oceanographer Charles Greene, described "major ecosystem reorganization" -- or "regime shift" -- in the North Atlantic, a consequence of global warming on the largest scale in five millennia.

"The rate of warming we are seeing (now) is unprecedented in human history," said Greene, whose research appears in the November 2008 issue of the journal Ecology.

In order to forecast the path of climate change, Greene and colleagues have been reconstructing major episodes of warming and cooling in the Arctic over the past 65 million years.

They have found in the paleoclimate record periods of rapid cooling, with average temperatures plunging by 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees F) within just decades or even years.

But the rise in temperatures over the past five decades is unmatched since the onset of human civilization, Greene said.

Published Nov. 7 2008

hate to be pedantic but human history is only c3000 years. which in geological or climatological terms is the blink of a gnat's eye!

We've had towns since about 11,000 years ago. We've had writing for 5,000 years.

ibis wrote:

zakalwe wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/081107015509.jyzwrbrq.html

Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago, according to studies published Thursday.
Researchers from Cornell University studied the increased introduction of fresh water from glacial melt, oceanic circulation, and the change in geographic range migration of oceanic plant and animal species.

The team, led by oceanographer Charles Greene, described "major ecosystem reorganization" -- or "regime shift" -- in the North Atlantic, a consequence of global warming on the largest scale in five millennia.

"The rate of warming we are seeing (now) is unprecedented in human history," said Greene, whose research appears in the November 2008 issue of the journal Ecology.

In order to forecast the path of climate change, Greene and colleagues have been reconstructing major episodes of warming and cooling in the Arctic over the past 65 million years.

They have found in the paleoclimate record periods of rapid cooling, with average temperatures plunging by 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees F) within just decades or even years.

But the rise in temperatures over the past five decades is unmatched since the onset of human civilization, Greene said.

Published Nov. 7 2008

hate to be pedantic but human history is only c3000 years. which in geological or climatological terms is the blink of a gnat's eye!

We've had towns since about 11,000 years ago. We've had writing for 5,000 years.

And how climate has behaved in our history is pretty important to how sustainable we will be in the future. If temperatures are rising at their fastest pace in human history then we, as humans, better stop arguing and do something about it.

A-T. You say that sun spots, teutonic plate movements and solar flares were the cause of the privious ice ages.

When I said the same things are the cause of climate changes a few weeks ago you said not at all it was carbon.

Are you for real.

Then you put up a graph with a range of 0.2 degrees. Who can even measure 0.2 degree.

youngdan wrote:

A-T. You say that sun spots, teutonic plate movements and solar flares were the cause of the privious ice ages.

When I said the same things are the cause of climate changes a few weeks ago you said not at all it was carbon.

Are you for real.

Yes, because climatologists have found out that previous ice ages had other contributory factors but they are as certain as scientists possibly can be that this warming is caused by greenhouse emissions. Indeed it seems that carbon dioxide emissions were a constant in all previous temperature changes. The difference now is that these emissions are anthropogenic and we can do something about them.

Quote :

Then you put up a graph with a range of 0.2 degrees. Who can even measure 0.2 degree.

Climatologists can. That's why they're climatologists.

Looking at the graphs put up by Ibis they show that there numerous times when the temperture swung in a range of 10 degrees. But still A-t says that this swing of 0.2 degrees is the biggest ever.

So what caused the 10 degree swings. Now A-T has changed his mind it was emissions after all and not external factors.

A-T you can not even keep your story straight from one post to the next.

Has it not even occured to you that when the dinosaurs were alive the earth had to be about 100 degrees warmer or the cold blooded pests would have frozen to death.


Do ye believe there even were dinosaurs

Spot on Audi. That shows them how silly they are

well, the good news is, peak oil is going to force us to do something about it. Carbon reduction ain't a choice folks, geology will impose it upon us...

And from NASA
Earth hottest in 5,000 years, study suggests

Sept. 25, 2006
Courtesy NASA
and World Science staff

Tem­pe­r­a­tures on Earth are hot­ter than they have been in sev­er­al thou­sand years, ac­cord­ing to a re­port in Mon­day’s ear­ly on­line is­sue of the re­search jour­nal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

A further in­c­rease of 1° Cel­si­us (1.8° Fah­ren­heit) will pro­duce dan­ger­ous sea le­vel ri­ses and spe­cies ex­ter­mi­na­tions, the au­thors wrote.

The stu­dy, led by James Han­sen of NASA’s God­dard In­sti­tute for Space Stud­ies in New York, found that warm­ing over the past three dec­ades has pushed Earth past the hot­test lev­els in the cur­rent in­ter­gla­cial pe­ri­od, or time between ice ages. The cur­rent pe­r­i­od has last­ed near­ly 12,000 years. The pre­vi­ous rec­ord tem­pe­r­a­tures dur­ing this pe­ri­od are es­ti­mat­ed to have oc­curred around five or six mil­len­ni­a ago.

Re­cent warm­ing is forc­ing spe­cies of plants and an­i­mals to move to­ward the north and south poles, the re­port said.

The study used tem­pe­r­a­tures around the world tak­en dur­ing the last cen­tu­ry. Sci­en­tists con­clud­ed that these da­ta showed the Earth has been warm­ing at what they called a re­mark­ably quick rate of about 0.36° Fahr­en­heit (0.2° Cel­si­us) per dec­ade for the past 30 years.

“This ev­i­dence im­plies that we are get­ting close to dan­ger­ous lev­els of hu­man-made pol­lu­tion,” said Han­sen.

Hu­man-made “green­house gas­es” are caus­ing glo­b­al warm­ing, ac­cord­ing to sci­en­tists. Green­house gas­es trap heat in the Earth’s at­mos­phere and warm the sur­face. Some green­house gas­es, which in­clude wa­ter va­por, car­bon di­ox­ide, meth­ane, ni­trous ox­ide, and ozone, oc­cur nat­u­ral­ly, while oth­ers are due to hu­man ac­tiv­i­ties.

Fur­ther glob­al warm­ing “of more than 1°C, rel­a­tive to 2000, will con­sti­tute “dan­ger­ous” cli­mate change as judged from like­ly ef­fects on sea lev­el and ex­ter­mi­na­tion of spe­cies,” the sci­en­tists wrote. The re­port ex­tends a re­cent find­ing that Earth is cur­rently hot­ter than at any time in the past 400 years.

* * *

There was a nice reduction last week when 2000 jobs went to Poland. Now Ireland is paying 50 million to Poland for carbon credits. Who are the dumb polacks now.

I hope every single worker is a global warming nut because they will feel better about the 50 million euro.


Ha Ha Ha Ha.

What is the Polish for gobshythe

You are like a broken record with your sea level rubbish. The sea is going noplace.

And back a bit further - youngdan you will like this

Quote :

Mid-Holocene Warm Period - About 6,000 Years Ago
Paleoclimatologists have long suspected that the "middle Holocene" or a period roughly from 7,000 to 5,000 years ago, was warmer than the present day. Terms like the Alti-thermal or Hypsi-thermal or Climatic Optimum have all been used to refer to this warm period that marked the middle of the current interglacial period. Today, however, we know that these terms are obsolete and that the truth of the Holocene is more complicated than originally believed.

What is most remarkable about the mid-Holocene is that we now have a good understanding of both the global patterns of temperature change during that period AND what caused them. It appears clear that changes in the Earth's orbit have operated slowly over thousands and millions of years to change the amount of solar radiation reaching each latitudinal band of the Earth during each month. These orbital changes can be easily calculated and predict that the northern hemisphere should have been warmer than today during the mid-Holocene in the summer AND colder in the winter. The paleoclimatic data for the mid-Holocene shows these expected changes, however, there is no evidence to show that the average annual mid-Holocene temperature was warmer than today's temperatures. We also now know from both data and "astronomical" (or "Milankovitch") theory that the period of above modern summer temperatures did not occur at the same time around the northern hemisphere, or in the southern hemisphere at all.

In summary, the mid-Holocene, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. More over, we clearly know the cause of this natural warming, and know without doubt that this proven "astronomical" climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.
For larger viewing version of the graph, please click here or on graph. Graph courtesy of Kerwin et al., 1999, complete scientific reference located here.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/holocene.html

There's one thing that isn't being discussed here and that is the speed of climate change. My understanding is that rapidity of change can multiply the impacts, as species don't have time to migrate and re-establish.

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Weather is beautiful today, sunny and clear as a bell. The last good day to plant shrubs and trees and shrubs - I'm off to plant some little hazel trees.

cactus flower wrote:

Weather is beautiful today, sunny and clear as a bell. The last good day to plant shrubs and trees and shrubs - I'm off to plant some little hazel trees.

Glorious day here too. I'll be heading out with the round-up later on to clean the place up and get ready for some digging in a couple of weeks.

We planted lots of different daffodils in the orchard a few years ago - and we had a good show for the first year or two but it has deteriorated. There won't be any this year I think. Cattle got in a year or two ago, broke the plum tree and pockmarked the whole place - and it seems the old daffs are decimated now too. Can't understand why though.

Nice piece today in the Observer magazine, cactus by Dan Pearson about hazels.

Kate P wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Weather is beautiful today, sunny and clear as a bell. The last good day to plant shrubs and trees and shrubs - I'm off to plant some little hazel trees.

Glorious day here too. I'll be heading out with the round-up later on to clean the place up and get ready for some digging in a couple of weeks.

We planted lots of different daffodils in the orchard a few years ago - and we had a good show for the first year or two but it has deteriorated. There won't be any this year I think. Cattle got in a year or two ago, broke the plum tree and pockmarked the whole place - and it seems the old daffs are decimated now too. Can't understand why though.

Nice piece today in the Observer magazine, cactus by Dan Pearson about hazels.

Daffs like to be dug up and split and replanted every three or four years. If the leaves are eaten the nutrients are gone, and they die right back.