The Irish Banking Bother: /Anglo 10 /Gardaí raid Anglo offices/ AIB '08 results 2nd March

cactus flower wrote:

"Pick up time" - tonys - get real. The Fianna Fail dream of business back to usual in a couple of years time is so far off the mark that they must be living in a bubble. There is absolutely no chance of that.

I didn't put a time scale on it, you did, but having said that there will be a pick up time at some stage, how usual that will be remains to be seen. That's my view, you have a different one, I can live with that.
Maybe the fact that I wouldn't look forward to living in a commune colours my view, we'll see.

They are not saying 5.5 billion is at risk, they are saying that their worst case scenario has a loss of 5.5 billion. Two very different things.

Since these figures were crunched it is clear that the scenario is much worse than their worst case scenario at the time was.

The 15 big guys each owing over 500 million each aren't paying a nickle back, presumably principle or interest.


There is good news for you though. All your buddies have to do is hang on for time because it looks like a Ukranian default is going to wipe out the Austrian banks. The euro would disintegrate and FF could save the republic if they have the punts ready to roll.

Remember, when the opposition is Enda Kenny and Gilmore, it is never a lost cause.

youngdan wrote:

They are not saying 5.5 billion is at risk, they are saying that their worst case scenario has a loss of 5.5 billion. Two very different things.

I only had a quick glance at it last night, that wasn't my impression, I'll look again. Even if so that would be against the background of the bank making a trading profit in 2008 , a bad year to say the least, of almost 2 billion, all is not lost Dan, not by a very, very long shot.

That is the thing about it Tony, if the situation is bad enough it is actually good. What Ireland needs is a euro collapse. Ireland is relieved on it's unpayable debts, the creditors get screwed but who cares, FF can blame the bankers of Austria while prosecuting domestic bankers. They will have been seen to have the foresight to have the punts secretly as a doomsday plan B.

Unfortunately for them, time is something FF don't have much of at the moment and the mindset of the top layer is welded to the EU. They will try to make the figures work. Even if the economy in the rest of the world was hopping it can not be done.

The entire system is going down and Ireland needs a leader not a politician.

Today will see 100000 malcontents on the streets. They need to recognise the money is gone.

youngdan wrote:

That is the thing about it Tony, if the situation is bad enough it is actually good. What Ireland needs is a euro collapse. Ireland is relieved on it's unpayable debts, the creditors get screwed but who cares,

The creditors might still get screwed, but the difference now is we're in charge of that decision.

I think the creditors are going to get screwed because the debts are unpayable. Ireland is not in charge of that decision because regardless of whether they wish to pay on not they can't pay if they don't have the money.

I believe Ireland will be forced to default unless the euro collapses first. Only time will tell. By the end of the day things might even be different

I just liked the line, "they moan but they will not loan".

Obviously not true for all.

Do you ever think Art predicts life ? There have been such a spate of Zombie films over the last while - Day of the Dead remake, Seán of the Dead, the 28 Days Later Duology, I Am Legend ... the last two were about a new class of severely vicious 'zombies' who went for your throat in a froth of such rage and violence it was really frightening even though it was fiction.

Maybe the real zombies were the customers all along though ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

Maybe the real zombies were the customers all along though ?

Now there is a thought. Most people go through life not wanting complications and just wanting as little haste as possible. There is more get up and go in the average goat.

coc wrote:

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

I think Ahern nailed Kenny on Morning Ireland but that he didn't make it clear enough. Enda Kenny knows that Cowen has come in contact with at least some of the wealthy businessmen. Kenny is trying to make political capital out of this by hyping it up as something it isn't.

But we don't know it isn't, do we? At this point nothing would surprise me. I don't think Ahern did that well at all. He trotted out the old we can't name anyone in case it prejudices a future case line. What a crock of shite that is - you'd swear nobody had ever heard of Catherine Nevin or Joe O'Reilly until after they were convicted.*

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

Meanwhile, to the rest of the world, it makes it looks like Kenny is alleging that our government has been involved in a corrupt conspiracy. Kenny is single-handedly aggravating the economic and reputational damage caused by the scandals in financial institutions. Kenny is seeking to impute the Government in crooked dealings. ...

I don't see how you can be certain he is not right. If the Government are involved in some sort of cover up, should Kenny stay quiet about it? To keep up appearances?!

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

None of the cabinet know the identity of the investors.

How can we be sure? I for one find it it impossible to believe the Cabinet don't know who they are. FFS, all Brian has to do is ask Fintan Drury and I'm sure he'd be able to fill him in. If I was in cabinet it would be top of my 'To Do' list so that I could start distancing myself from them as much as possible. I reckon every journo in the country knows who they are but they don't have the stones to publish. For the life of me I don't know why. There's no law against buying shares, so where's the harm in announcing that 10 people bought shares? I'm not suggesting anyone names 10 people and pronounce them all as guilty of anything, though I'm sure if they have enough pull at the highest level bigmouth Harney will be along to do just that. ;-)

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

I think Kenny will be rightly slated over this. He has already started his back-tracking saying he has no evidence to connect FF to the investors.

If there's no beef then I'd be inclined to agree with you - it won't reflect well on FG, but we don't know yet, do we?
*Interestingly both were convicted on fairly flimsy grounds as far as I can see.

The time has come for Kenny to put up or shut up. He has already said he has no evidence that any member of the Government was involved. Was that a lie??

Jody Corcoran today reports that Kenny had a meeting with an Anglo Executive. Was the identity of any of the Anglo 10 discussed?? We need to know now. Kenny must air the pertinent facts on the floor of the Dail.

The FG rumour mill has gone into over-drive. First it was suggested that Drury was involved. He then denied it.

Now an FF TD's name is being circulated by the rumour brigade.

If Kenny knows something important that threatens the reputation of the country then he needs to put it out there so that the country can deal with it.

Personally, I think Kenny is bluffing and the rumours are bare-faced lies designed to destabilise the country with reckless disregard for the economic future of the nation. I think that FG is involved in scurrilous behaviour. I hope I am right. If I am wrong then Enda Kenny as a TD owes it to me as a citizen to tell me that I am wrong.

BTW - I presume Cowen could not ask Drury for the customers' identity as Drury would be bound by confidentiality. There is no reason to impute that Drury has this knowledge (I am not sure when exactly Drury resigned relative to the date of the loans) or that he would divulge it improperly.

Anglo Irish, the property sector and Fianna Fail are inextricably linked by donations, appointments, "deep relationships" - I would like to know if there were loans to Cabinet Ministers, but whether there were on not will not make these conjoined triplets separate beings.

Youngdan - I agree with you about default. It is a question about which State goes first and not whether there will be a sovereign default and at the moment all eyes are on Ireland. I don't agree that a collapse of the Euro is an answer, as it would wipe out assets and pensions at the same time as it relieved indebtedness to those earning (if their wages were linked to inflation)

The danger we're looking at is loss of sovereignty, and the destruction of all the public assets and services we have on the instruction of the EU/IMF. The Guarantee, which should never, never have been entered into, should be reversed, we should get ourselves a government that is on the side of the population, and dig in.

cactus flower wrote:

Anglo Irish, the property sector and Fianna Fail are inextricably linked by donations, appointments, "deep relationships" - I would like to know if there were loans to Cabinet Ministers, but whether there were on not will not make these conjoined triplets separate beings.

Youngdan - I agree with you about default. It is a question about which State goes first and not whether there will be a sovereign default and at the moment all eyes are on Ireland. I don't agree that a collapse of the Euro is an answer, as it would wipe out assets and pensions at the same time as it relieved indebtedness to those earning (if their wages were linked to inflation)

The danger we're looking at is loss of sovereignty, and the destruction of all the public assets and services we have on the instruction of the EU/IMF. The Guarantee, which should never, never have been entered into, should be reversed, we should get ourselves a government that is on the side of the population, and dig in.

You are fooling yourself if you think any Government can work through this without everybody in the country making a contribution and as a first step in that any Government will have to bring the public sector more into line with the private sector, not all of the 50% advantage the public sector workers enjoy has to be taken back but some steps have to be taken. Until every sector stops saying, “cuts need to be made, but not my patch” we will get nowhere.

CF - it seems from your post that you are hoping that Ireland can default on the bank debts and start afresh. It further seems that you think that a Government "that is on the side of the population" would achieve that.

I have to say that seems to be wishful thinking at its most extreme. If the banks go bust then the banks' creditors will be entitled to enforce all the loans which are owed tot he bank. There would be a fire sale of the entire nation and people would have to pay the remainder of the debts which are not cleared by asset sales.

Huge swathes would be left destitute and broke. A huge proportion of the generation of 30-somethings that have borrowed the money which has paid civil servants through property taxes would be saddled with unsustainable debt for the rest of their lives.

That is the consequence of respecting property rights and enforceing contracts, the two most basic pre-requisites to operating a system of credit and international trade. The alternative is turning Europe into a communist state and all which that entails including endemic corruption.

Unrealistic greed has got us where we are. Further unrealistic greed is not going to improve matters.

Certainly people will be ruined and bankrupted and lenders will suffer and some lenders to lenders should suffer. We can't just eat our cake, vomit on the table and walk away though.

tonys wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Anglo Irish, the property sector and Fianna Fail are inextricably linked by donations, appointments, "deep relationships" - I would like to know if there were loans to Cabinet Ministers, but whether there were on not will not make these conjoined triplets separate beings.

Youngdan - I agree with you about default. It is a question about which State goes first and not whether there will be a sovereign default and at the moment all eyes are on Ireland. I don't agree that a collapse of the Euro is an answer, as it would wipe out assets and pensions at the same time as it relieved indebtedness to those earning (if their wages were linked to inflation)

The danger we're looking at is loss of sovereignty, and the destruction of all the public assets and services we have on the instruction of the EU/IMF. The Guarantee, which should never, never have been entered into, should be reversed, we should get ourselves a government that is on the side of the population, and dig in.

You are fooling yourself if you think any Government can work through this without everybody in the country making a contribution and as a first step in that any Government will have to bring the public sector more into line with the private sector, not all of the 50% advantage the public sector workers enjoy has to be taken back but some steps have to be taken. Until every sector stops saying, “cuts need to be made, but not my patch” we will get nowhere.

I'm not being clear enough. I am not talking about the public/private sector. The State is heading very rapildy for sovereign default. The Guarantee needs to be removed in the least damaging way possible. We need to start thinking about how we will keep the lights on and keep people fed. Its way gone past who takes a little cut. I notice you say a 50% cut for Public Sector workers- that is what people are talking about if the IMF comes in. Is that what you are talking about too?

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

CF - it seems from your post that you are hoping that Ireland can default on the bank debts and start afresh. It further seems that you think that a Government "that is on the side of the population" would achieve that.

I have to say that seems to be wishful thinking at its most extreme. If the banks go bust then the banks' creditors will be entitled to enforce all the loans which are owed tot he bank. There would be a fire sale of the entire nation and people would have to pay the remainder of the debts which are not cleared by asset sales.

Huge swathes would be left destitute and broke. A huge proportion of the generation of 30-somethings that have borrowed the money which has paid civil servants through property taxes would be saddled with unsustainable debt for the rest of their lives.

That is the consequence of respecting property rights and enforceing contracts, the two most basic pre-requisites to operating a system of credit and international trade. The alternative is turning Europe into a communist state and all which that entails including endemic corruption.

Unrealistic greed has got us where we are. Further unrealistic greed is not going to improve matters.

Certainly people will be ruined and bankrupted and lenders will suffer and some lenders to lenders should suffer. We can't just eat our cake, vomit on the table and walk away though.

No Zhou, I am not wanting a Sovereign default. I am saying, as are a number of economists, that we are heading very rapidly towards one and that what the Government has done and is doing is accelerating the process.

A Sovereign default means the country is broke. Public servants could not be paid. Government would be unable to pay its outgoings. There would be massive impacts on everyone in the country. Depending on whether it has any money or not, and how it is disposed, the IMF and/or EU might come in with loans and with stringent and very painful requirements. We would have lost control over how we try to get out of this dire situation. The Bank Guarantee combined with the predicatable fiscal disaster created by Government are the two main causes of this, and the backdrop of the world depression makes it even more serious.

Intel leaving Ireland, if that happened, is a possible final straw/trigger, but there are many others.

There is no way that Fianna Fail can deal with this. They have had a year to see the light, and have made things worse. I appreciate that the alternatives are far from inspiring, but we must do our best to construct a government that is capable minding the interests of the people as a whole and will work like demons with skill and inventiveness.
That imo excludes FG. will post more later.

It seems to me that you are suggesting that we can have bank failures and the Government would still be able to pay wages and to borrow money to do so.

Or else you are suggesting that the Guarantee could be withdrawn without it being treated as a sovereign default and without there being a crushing flight of capital and a run on the banks.

Do you think we can avoid sovereign default at the expense of collapsing all our banks?

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

The time has come for Kenny to put up or shut up. He has already said he has no evidence that any member of the Government was involved. Was that a lie??

Jody Corcoran today reports that Kenny had a meeting with an Anglo Executive. Was the identity of any of the Anglo 10 discussed?? We need to know now. Kenny must air the pertinent facts on the floor of the Dail.

The FG rumour mill has gone into over-drive. First it was suggested that Drury was involved. He then denied it.

Now an FF TD's name is being circulated by the rumour brigade.

If Kenny knows something important that threatens the reputation of the country then he needs to put it out there so that the country can deal with it.

Personally, I think Kenny is bluffing and the rumours are bare-faced lies designed to destabilise the country with reckless disregard for the economic future of the nation. I think that FG is involved in scurrilous behaviour. I hope I am right. If I am wrong then Enda Kenny as a TD owes it to me as a citizen to tell me that I am wrong.

I wouldn't regard Corcoran as a reliable source of anything but I do agree with you that it is time for Enda to play his hand. I just can't understand how you are so certain he isn't holding a full house?

Point taken on the Drury thing, but again I am amazed that Cowen doesn't want to know who the 10 are. Surely he can imagine some names that would mean curtains for the Government? Surely he needs to know who the 10 are if only to be certain that none of the names are fatal to his Government, or if they are, to be able to minimise the damage?

I think the point was made that it is against all regulations for shareholders to be allowed to request details of customers' business. The Government are shareholders. I have no doubt but that Alan Dukes as the public interest director is aware of the borrowers' identities. He is the appropriate person to be entrusted with this knowledge; not the government.

coc wrote:

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

....Personally, I think Kenny is bluffing and the rumours are bare-faced lies designed to destabilise the country with reckless disregard for the economic future of the nation. I think that FG is involved in scurrilous behaviour. I hope I am right. If I am wrong then Enda Kenny as a TD owes it to me as a citizen to tell me that I am wrong.

I wouldn't regard Corcoran as a reliable source of anything but I do agree with you that it is time for Enda to play his hand. I just can't understand how you are so certain he isn't holding a full house?...

There were so many false rumours during the tribunals that I have come to suspect that this is the modus operandi of the FG media machine. If I am wrong then so be it.

We'll see soon enough.

BTW, surely what emerged from the Tribunals was mad enough, even if every single allegation didn't stand up (or wasn't provable)?

It depends on your point of view and what you believe. However, the facts did not justify all the allegations, false rumours, deliberate misinterpretations and leaps to incredible conclusions.

If the tribunal threads were still on p.ie you could chart it. However, they were all deleted which I thik was quite prudent from a legal liability point of view.

Gardaí raid Anglo offices

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0224/anglo.html

About bloody time...

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Gardaí raid Anglo offices

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0224/anglo.html

About bloody time...

Your shares should recover now EVM

edit

The Pin boys are not impressed
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=46&t=19115&sid=c75823e4304e27b1ef48f8bda1a99e48

xman wrote:

Hark! Is that the sound of someone pulling their finger out of their hole? Things must be bad.

kerrynorth wrote:

Not only has the horse bolted by this stage but the jockey is probably enjoying the Canrival in Rio!

mr. anderson wrote:

Phew .... its just as well the world hasn't invented some kind of shredder, otherwise who knows what papers would no longer be in existance.

still, kudos to the ODCE for doing the financial regulators job.

Ha. No chance Audi. I was just about to flog them when I heard about the cops going into Anglo. I should still sell them, they're going nowhere except down.

But I'm a masochist ...