The weather thread

It will end with the big freeze coming. How appropiate

An ice age wouldn't happen overnight though youngdan - it would take at least a century wouldn't it ? I don't even know how a precession of the axis would affect the climate, although Ireland used to be in the equator at one point - a geological information map in the Burren says so anyway.

Does the earth really tilt that much ? And how would it affect the climate ? Wouldn't we just get Santa living in Belgium instead of Lappland? Or does the tilt change upset the delicate balance of climate forces keep the whole chaotic climate system house of cards balanced ? If it tilted over a period of a few months maybe we'd need to start looking at some thermals so...

What's this about 2012, isn't the earth supposed to go into a galactic plane that's going to wobble us severely for two months and we could all be less well off afterwards ?

The big freeze I was refering to is only a day away.

Scientists are warning that a solar flare will have catastrophic effects worldwide in 2012 and would knock down the grid for months.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html

I bet Papal Kmight has no opinion on this.

Auditor #9 wrote:

An ice age wouldn't happen overnight though youngdan - it would take at least a century wouldn't it ? I don't even know how a precession of the axis would affect the climate, although Ireland used to be in the equator at one point - a geological information map in the Burren says so anyway.

Hmm, no. Previous Ice Ages in Ireland have set in over a quarter-century when the Gulf Stream has shut down. As to "Ireland" being at the Equator - the plate(s) Ireland is part of have been all over the place, but that's plate tectonics not axial tilt.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Does the earth really tilt that much ? And how would it affect the climate ? Wouldn't we just get Santa living in Belgium instead of Lappland? Or does the tilt change upset the delicate balance of climate forces keep the whole chaotic climate system house of cards balanced ? If it tilted over a period of a few months maybe we'd need to start looking at some thermals so...

What's this about 2012, isn't the earth supposed to go into a galactic plane that's going to wobble us severely for two months and we could all be less well off afterwards ?

There's no mechanism that could tilt the Earth that much (although Mars does it), and weather patterns would be totally different - "climate change" wouldn't even begin to cover it. What would the galactic plane thing even mean? We're in the galactic plane now - there's no way in the Universe we could be appreciably out of it in three years time.

youngdan wrote:

The big freeze I was refering to is only a day away.

Scientists are warning that a solar flare will have catastrophic effects worldwide in 2012 and would knock down the grid for months.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html

I bet Papal Kmight has no opinion on this.

One could point out that it indicates our understanding and knowledge of the Sun is quite sufficient to evaluate and factor out its effects on current climate change.

One could say that if one believes that it is coming in 2012.

Of course I could point out that they could not predict the one that actually did come in 2003 that knocked out every beeper and pager in North America.

They can not predict Sun activity any more than they can predict when a porcepine takes a piss.

youngdan wrote:

One could say that if one believes that it is coming in 2012.

Of course I could point out that they could not predict the one that actually did come in 2003 that knocked out every beeper and pager in North America.

They can not predict Sun activity any more than they can predict when a porcepine takes a piss.

Some things, on the other hand, are entirely predictable.

The Sun and porcepine are two that are not and we shall see about the climate

youngdan wrote:

The Sun and porcepine are two that are not and we shall see about the climate

Tell you what, youngdan - you wake me up when you have anything to substantiate your side of the story. So far all you've got is a willingness not to be convinced by the evidence.

Tell you what, Ibis -you wake me up when it actually warms up.

youngdan wrote:

Tell you what, Ibis -you wake me up when it actually warms up.

See ya in spring, papa bear.

Fortunately for me in a sense that when the blistering heat comes in August we will have moved on to other matters. Our concerns are likely be more immediate with the way things are going.

So I will make a 2nd attempt to move on to the next disagreement

just to attempt a little mediation; Cactus' figures refer to Met Eireann re the 10th warmest year; I checked their website last night. Ireland only, darlings. These stats do not extend to Massachusetts. Casement Aerodrome was 0.31 degrees C above the 1960-1990 average, apparently. However, December was colder than usual.

It has to be said that even for the most ardent global warming adherent, Ireland isn't the best country to track; the ameliorating effect of the North Atlantic drift means we're not going to see the extremes others will and the biggest effect is likely to be on precipitation levels, not temperature per se. Our winter temps may be more reflective of what happened in the tropics during the summer (since that is where the ocean current comes from, and it takes a while to get here), than what is happening over the large continental landmasses of Eurasia and North America. Only during the occasional high do we get the cold snaps from the Continent and even then, they're a good bit diluted.

I wish we got more snow... haven't had good snow here in years .

Its windy here. I see its -58 degrees wind chill factor in youngdan's part of the world. He must be a shadow of his usual self. I do hope he's all right.

We should send Youngdan some dry socks and a few bales of briquettes.

expat girl wrote:

just to attempt a little mediation; Cactus' figures refer to Met Eireann re the 10th warmest year; I checked their website last night. Ireland only, darlings. These stats do not extend to Massachusetts. Casement Aerodrome was 0.31 degrees C above the 1960-1990 average, apparently. However, December was colder than usual.

It has to be said that even for the most ardent global warming adherent, Ireland isn't the best country to track; the ameliorating effect of the North Atlantic drift means we're not going to see the extremes others will and the biggest effect is likely to be on precipitation levels, not temperature per se. Our winter temps may be more reflective of what happened in the tropics during the summer (since that is where the ocean current comes from, and it takes a while to get here), than what is happening over the large continental landmasses of Eurasia and North America. Only during the occasional high do we get the cold snaps from the Continent and even then, they're a good bit diluted.

Yes, that seems right - 10th warmest on record - http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24813289-11949,00.html Curiously, 0.31 was also the global figure.

Quote :

The Australian
THE year 2008 is set to be the 10th warmest on record for the globe, with a temperature 0.31°C above average. And Australia is on track for its 15th warmest year on record, with a temperature 0.37°C above average, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

Senior Climatologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, Andrew Watkins, said 2008 was a La Nina year, in which the Pacific Ocean cools and temperatures tend to be lower across Australia.
"In spite of that La Nina event we still came out with the 15th warmest on record year for Australia," he said. Dr Watkins pointed out the preliminary global figure means 2008 was "warmer than all but two years in the previous century, so we are still seeing considerable warming here post-2000." He said many mid-latitude areas of the globe, including Australia, experienced drought in 2008. "We had drought in California and British Columbia in western North America. There was drought through Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina in South America.
“Drought in Australia, through central Australia was significant as anything we saw around the globe,” he said. Victoria was also dry and is having its ninth driest year on record.

“The story for southern Australia was an exceptional dry autumn and then a very dry start to spring,” Dr Watkins said. The eastern seaboards was extremely dry between January and October, “but it wetted up November and December”. He said the Murray-Darling Basin was not only dry during the cropping season but it is having its fourth warmest year on record.
Dr Watkins said there are early indications of a La Nina, but he pointed out they usually start in autumn. The Artic Sea ice, which dropped to its lowest ever level last year, fell to its second lowest level this year.

“We saw the melting again because the ice was so thin,” Dr Watkins said. “This is due to the warming and also changes in the circulation at high latitudes.” Michael Raupach from the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, said Australia‘s greenhouse gas emissions had risen 15 per cent since the year 2000. He said reaching the government‘s target of a five per cent reduction on 2000 levels, actually means a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases. “The targets are very challenging,” he said.

Dr Raupach said the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide - roughly 45 per cent of all carbon dioxide - was increasing, the amount on the land was steady, but the amount in the ocean was decreasing. Dr Raupach said the amount of methane being released had increased over the past 10 years, possibly due to vegetation that had been frozen under permafrost now thawing.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

We should send Youngdan some dry socks and a few bales of briquettes.

And a copy of the Independant to stuff inside his vest.

Hope he hasn't frozen to death... haven't seen any posts for the last day or two and he's usually not short of a few words during a bank meltdown.....

expat girl wrote:

Hope he hasn't frozen to death... haven't seen any posts for the last day or two and he's usually not short of a few words during a bank meltdown.....

Perhaps we should put up a Missing Persons poster. I certainly missing him.

he wasn't joking about the cold....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28673142/

dunno if the -30 to -50 quoted is in Centigrade or Fahrenheit, but -50C is -45F, so doesn't make much difference.....

Not unheard of over there, but certainly unusual.

Perhaps the internet is frozen.

I was in - 40 once, and it was O.K. so long as you were dressed for it, and not standing still for too long. I would not want to be bouncing outside a bar in it.

Off topic. Where the hell is youngdan now goddammit.

I was browsing through the Anglo thread today and picked this up. youngdan with his customary hyperbole reckoned Cowen had destroyed the world. If only he'd limited it to a Continent's Currency it would have been an amazingly prescient post on the 6th October last ...

youngdan wrote:

Aragon. Are you of the belief that there is free market economics over here. The banks were forced by law to make the loans to people who everyone knew could not pay. In a free market you would never have had Freddy or Fannie.

The problems are coming home to roost but if you are relying on the State to fix things then you are in for a long term grief. It is not even a week since the jokers gauranteed the banks and look how that has worked.

I knew Cowan would ruin Ireland but did not think he would ruin the entire world

https://machinenation.forumakers.com/economy-business-and-finance-f8/government-almost-nationalises-the-banks-anglo-irish-bank-to-be-nationalised-t1307-200.htm#39194

It's rainy and quite cold here in Clare although it was generally a good day overall.

Rainy here too in spats - but not cold for a welcome change. The Midlands has had more than its fair share of severe cold this winter. Laois, Offaly and Westmeath county council reps have been on local radio saying how they've had to salt/grit the roads dozens of times already this winter - and might have only done it a handful of times last year at most.

There's been a lot of black ice here too in recent times, which those who live near the coast never experience.