Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

Deleted post - added to wrong thread

Auditor #9 wrote:

***Edo posted before

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

I just read a scary post by Edo here who quotes in full a very well written Irish Times analysis piece about the mixed fortunes of the Irish electorate since the seventies and our tendency to compete rather than co-operate in times of national trouble. Edo is concluding that the 'nuclear option' would be a Govt. of FF and FG - is that possible ?

I tend to think of these things as being cultural and class-based systemic problems rather than something that can be sorted out by political parties in government with or against each other. Perhaps a good period of financial austerity might straighten people out - the Economic Research Institute of Hard Knocks.

It's interesting to see the protests happening and it would be great if people would demand, in a co-ordinated fashion, a bit of an upgrade to the current system - we're still running a non-GUI version of Govt. and it's time we got something a little bit more interactive. It's really time that people started realising that they can have something more interactive, something which would give everyone more responsibility.


When I see the protests I can't help getting youngdan's recent posts out of my head - rakes of people shouting "I want I want I want and I want it now".

Isn't it intesting Audi? - that there was only 1 response to that thread on P.ie - Rocky , who I respectfully disagree with on his interpretation - but absolutely nobody else - all too caught up in that infantile FF/FG tit for tat. I think an FF/FG grand coalition maybe required - probably after the 2nd of 2 elections that we will have in the next 3 years - if the predictions and my own gut feeling are right and our economic conditions keep disimproving and we replace one unwieldy coalition bedecked with populist handgrenades liable to explode at the nearest hint of public disapproval - with another of the same with a slightly different makeup - It will take a coalition of the 2 main parties -formed after an election - with about 120+ seats to be strong enough to take the tough unpopular measures that will be needed and allow for a few shooting stars of populist bring home the bacon TDs to have their little tantrum , but not deflect the gov from doing the right things long term - it might also give the left - who are always tellin us only for the Civil War parties they'd be in power by now - their chance to step up and give us an alternative to the Status quo parties - see if they are more than they appear - a whole specturm of Judean Peoples fronts who cant agree on anything and hate each other more than they hate the right.

Edo wrote:

Isn't it intesting Audi? - that there was only 1 response to that thread on P.ie - Rocky , who I respectfully disagree with on his interpretation - but absolutely nobody else - all too caught up in that infantile FF/FG tit for tat. I think an FF/FG grand coalition maybe required - probably after the 2nd of 2 elections that we will have in the next 3 years - if the predictions and my own gut feeling are right and our economic conditions keep disimproving and we replace one unwieldy coalition bedecked with populist handgrenades liable to explode at the nearest hint of public disapproval - with another of the same with a slightly different makeup - It will take a coalition of the 2 main parties -formed after an election - with about 120+ seats to be strong enough to take the tough unpopular measures that will be needed and allow for a few shooting stars of populist bring home the bacon TDs to have their little tantrum , but not deflect the gov from doing the right things long term - it might also give the left - who are always tellin us only for the Civil War parties they'd be in power by now - their chance to step up and give us an alternative to the Status quo parties - see if they are more than they appear - a whole specturm of Judean Peoples fronts who cant agree on anything and hate each other more than they hate the right.

A grand coalition of FF and FG? That'd take some political rupture in Ireland Edo. Even during the tumultous period of short Dáils through the 80s that prospect was never there. What makes this period of economic retrenchment any different? FF with a strong whip and the co-operation of the Greens could easily keep the Government going till around 2010/11 when the Boundary Commission Report necessitates a General Election. An FF/Lab or FG/Lab coalition can take over then. The recession will have ended and be being reversed by then so the government could easily last the full term. Therefore, this period of political chaos could easily become merely one note in the symphony of Irish politics.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Edo wrote:

Isn't it intesting Audi? - that there was only 1 response to that thread on P.ie - Rocky , who I respectfully disagree with on his interpretation - but absolutely nobody else - all too caught up in that infantile FF/FG tit for tat. I think an FF/FG grand coalition maybe required - probably after the 2nd of 2 elections that we will have in the next 3 years - if the predictions and my own gut feeling are right and our economic conditions keep disimproving and we replace one unwieldy coalition bedecked with populist handgrenades liable to explode at the nearest hint of public disapproval - with another of the same with a slightly different makeup - It will take a coalition of the 2 main parties -formed after an election - with about 120+ seats to be strong enough to take the tough unpopular measures that will be needed and allow for a few shooting stars of populist bring home the bacon TDs to have their little tantrum , but not deflect the gov from doing the right things long term - it might also give the left - who are always tellin us only for the Civil War parties they'd be in power by now - their chance to step up and give us an alternative to the Status quo parties - see if they are more than they appear - a whole specturm of Judean Peoples fronts who cant agree on anything and hate each other more than they hate the right.

A grand coalition of FF and FG? That'd take some political rupture in Ireland Edo. Even during the tumultous period of short Dáils through the 80s that prospect was never there. What makes this period of economic retrenchment any different? FF with a strong whip and the co-operation of the Greens could easily keep the Government going till around 2010/11 when the Boundary Commission Report necessitates a General Election. An FF/Lab or FG/Lab coalition can take over then. The recession will have ended and be being reversed by then so the government could easily last the full term. Therefore, this period of political chaos could easily become merely one note in the symphony of Irish politics.

Ard you are assuming that the recession we are facing is similar to the 80's - entirely self inflicted - no sir - we are a fully paid up member of the globalised community now - and we are going to suffer along with everybody else and this is going to be the worst recession since the 30's - we arent 10-15% of the way into this one - we got lift off after 1987 here because when we finally got our shit together here - and it did take the 2 large parties co-operating in the dail over fiscal matters - the world economy was waiting for us with open arms - the temperature outside this time is getting colder by the day.

About six months ago I was thinking about the next coalition being FF-FG. They'd get on well together, and probably survive for 20+ years.

It would be hell.

Two populist parties in government together? No thanks.
Maybe they'd suddenly find the ability to make the tough decisions, but I doubt it.

Has anyone read Richard Bruton's Road To Recovery document. It was a pre-budget statement by FG. I had a look today and I'm not impressed. No decrease in NDP funding and no increase in tax. I can't see how that can work. He relies too much on fuzzy claims to introduce new pubic sector "effiencies" without a loss in service. I can't see that as a realistic option in the short term.

I'm glad to see Labour do very well in this poll, btw.

Hell, I'm glad to see such a seismic shift in Irish politics at last. But I don't want that shift to be from Tweedle Dum to Tweedle Dee.

And the question is how long will this shift last? Is it just a kneejerk reaction to the first in a series of tough budgets? Is this about the government being unsympathetic to the young, old and ill or.. is it about the dawning realisation that our construction based economy was a house of cards?

eoinmn wrote:

About six months ago I was thinking about the next coalition being FF-FG. They'd get on well together, and probably survive for 20+ years.

It would be hell.

Two populist parties in government together? No thanks.
Maybe they'd suddenly find the ability to make the tough decisions, but I doubt it.

Has anyone read Richard Bruton's Road To Recovery document. It was a pre-budget statement by FG. I had a look today and I'm not impressed. No decrease in NDP funding and no increase in tax. I can't see how that can work. He relies too much on fuzzy claims to introduce new pubic sector "effiencies" without a loss in service. I can't see that as a realistic option in the short term.

I'm glad to see Labour do very well in this poll, btw.

Hell, I'm glad to see such a seismic shift in Irish politics at last. But I don't want that shift to be from Tweedle Dum to Tweedle Dee.

And the question is how long will this shift last? Is it just a kneejerk reaction to the first in a series of tough budgets? Is this about the government being unsympathetic to the young, old and ill or.. is it about the dawning realisation that our construction based economy was a house of cards?

I dont know Eoin - I couldn't see it lasting any longer than it needed to - a shotgun marriage of complete desperation if you like.

Then again - even if they got along famously -politics - like nature - abhors a vaccum - some entity would surely emerge to take up the mantle of opposition and FF/FG overall support would steadily decrease as it becomes obvious that you vote for one and you get the other.

Grand coalitions have been done in many other countries - from opposite sides of the political spectrum when needs must - Germany being the best example.

The elimation of the panto that has gone on in Irish politicals since the 30's between FF and FG would indeed be encouraging. I suspect, however, once the gloss of shared policy implementation coordinated between the right based wings of both FF and FG were finished to the satisfaction of the free market ideologists, the combined parties would end up with less than 120 seats. Labour could not work with a completely right-wing economic agenda pasted onto every social aspect of society. If they did for any lenght of time, they'd be decimated.

So, it is conceivable that the left wing parties would also benefit from this arrangement in both the short and long term. We've seen a taste of FF ideals about shared responsibility. The right wing's desire to implement such proposals on a deeper and more wide ranging basis would be most welcome. Privitising the profits and sharing the costs would become more apparent to every voter.

I also agree that left wing parties would have a much harder time in coalescing their agenda. Leaving aside the communists whom no main stream left wing party will contenance, the left wing would still have an open market wing ranging down to a statist control wing. Mind you, given Sarkozy's recent ramblings, there is a very real possibility of de facto ring-wing statist control creeping into the mindset of European economic/political thought.

I don't post on pie.

It's hard to see it happening Edo but interesting as you say which is why I nabbed your post. As rockyracoon says above, it would be useful if it served to end the panto that is the Civil War thing that mars politics here with the tit for tat sensitivities. And for that reason (we love the tit for tat) this Grand Coalition is hard to see happening. What noises are there about it if any ?

I can see a strong place for Sinn Fein and somehow I can't see the Greens getting obliterated. Both of these smaller parties have great stuff to offer government - I like the way SF used to have a 'laughable' policy of nationalising banks ...

How far we've come since this thread was opened.
Will this Dáil see a full term? Hard to see it lasting right now.

Meh - Im looking at employment positions in Dubai at the moment - I could do with a few years out of a democracy - if only to make me appreciate it - which Im manfully stuggling to do so right now.

so the greens will go next week then eoin ?

Kenny seems pretty dense but surely even he does not want an election and definitely does not want a coalition. Imagine him and that thick Gilmore running things. Regardless of the things I said about Willie pointing the gun, he showed up Gilmore as just a loudmouth politician talking rubbish with no concept of the problem. Willie should have shouted, " Hey bollix there is 15 billion short, buy a calculator."

Ireland needs a leader. Instead we have rats jumping ship

youngdan wrote:

Kenny seems pretty dense but surely even he does not want an election and definitely does not want a coalition. Imagine him and that thick Gilmore running things. Regardless of the things I said about Willie pointing the gun, he showed up Gilmore as just a loudmouth politician talking rubbish with no concept of the problem. Willie should have shouted, " Hey bollix there is 15 billion short, buy a calculator."

Ireland needs a leader. Instead we have rats jumping ship

I agree - time to go and pack me bags - when Im starting to agree with YD - the Rapture can only be days away

I don't see SF in southern govt for some time to come. They have to work out their economic policy foundation. There are some good people working on the task and I imagine it hasn't been easy to reconcile the socialist aspect with the open market aspect of various viewpoints - the idealogical versus the practical. Most people who vote for SF, in reality, are not socialists but have sympathy for all social issues. There seems to be a meeting of minds on how to allow an open market policy to operate in a social manner, but that is only the first step. You have to translate policy into a coherent message and framework. This will be harder again as we have just witnessed over the bank bail-out versus the health entitlement issues.

I see the Greens in most any government you wish to imagine. They have been somewhat ineffective during their time in office and probably will be hampered by the overall economic decline. Their long term message will remain relevant but I also see a divide on economic issues within their party as well. Some Greens seem to be almost Pd'ish on the one hand and on the other they seem to be utter command socialst qing. The latter have lost most influence during the last year and may have left the party, but some tension still exists

Edo wrote:

Meh - Im looking at employment positions in Dubai at the moment - I could do with a few years out of a democracy - if only to make me appreciate it - which Im manfully stuggling to do so right now.

I hear there is a large'ish Irish population already established in Dubai already. From I'm reading on other site, it seems like a decent local. gl

Hopefully the Dail will disolve soon although FF defintely deserve to stew in it. Still FGers, its time to rise above party politics and take up battelstations.
Personally I'm very heartened by the poll result. I know theres a lot wrong with our democratic institutions but as a dyed in the wool blueshirt who has campaigned in Ireland in a few elections(though now in Spain) it brought a tear to my eye to see us above the old enemy for the first ever time at least in the polls.

Still if necessary I'd rather an Ireland without FG. An Ireland that didnt rely on a few honest men ever 20 years to get us out of the economic mess . I have sent letter on letter to FG and am asking that of they ever get into power can the ensure that they change the constitution by reforming the senate, developing direct democracy at the local level and other measures so as to ensure that a FF dictatorship(by which I mean an unaccountable FF govt which is impervious to public opinion for 4-5 years) is never allowed to occur again.

Fine Gaelers - power is now inevitable, but you must do you duty to the republic as you did in 1922 and 1987.

Don't you think FG and Lab both might be irreversibly damaged if this Government fell and they had to pick up the pieces ? There's an awful hatred of FG (I think it's inferiority complex by native FFers) and Lab just latent underneath the surface that would take a bad budget for them to be cursed again forever as Thatcherite pricks and Queen ****-lickers and God knows what else. They do not deserve that.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Don't you think FG and Lab both might be irreversibly damaged if this Government fell and they had to pick up the pieces ? There's an awful hatred of FG (I think it's inferiority complex by native FFers) and Lab just latent underneath the surface that would take a bad budget for them to be cursed again forever as Thatcherite pricks and Queen ****-lickers and God knows what else. They do not deserve that.

In the long term - no. The people, collectively, are smart enough to know where the real blame lies.
There is hated though towards FG and I think its understandable. They were like hyporcitical priests in the early 80s preaching austerity and then doubling the debt in 1982-87. Also the appliaction of the rule of law towards provos but not towards British agents(Dub-monagahan bombings) is another indication of hyprocarcy. The people hate nothing more than hypocracy. Most FGers are not hypocrits but in government there have been a few events that have shamed us. Overall FG have been a force for good. What we/they need to do is ensure that the system/estabishment is changed. It suits only FF. In image as well as power.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/government-not-able-to-deal-with--downturn--poll-1510475.html

This poll in today's Sindo is interesting. There is no confidence that Government can deal with the crisis. It seems that people do realise it is serious, they just don't think Government can fix it.

Whoever goes into government will have a seriously difficult job - keep everyone alive and well, and keep going with strategic development. Communities will need to look after each other, as well as

*** cactus above

Respvblica wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Don't you think FG and Lab both might be irreversibly damaged if this Government fell and they had to pick up the pieces ? There's an awful hatred of FG (I think it's inferiority complex by native FFers) and Lab just latent underneath the surface that would take a bad budget for them to be cursed again forever as Thatcherite pricks and Queen ****-lickers and God knows what else. They do not deserve that.

In the long term - no. The people, collectively, are smart enough to know where the real blame lies.
There is hated though towards FG and I think its understandable. They were like hyporcitical priests in the early 80s preaching austerity and then doubling the debt in 1982-87. Also the appliaction of the rule of law towards provos but not towards British agents(Dub-monagahan bombings) is another indication of hyprocarcy. The people hate nothing more than hypocracy. Most FGers are not hypocrits but in government there have been a few events that have shamed us. Overall FG have been a force for good. What we/they need to do is ensure that the system/estabishment is changed. It suits only FF. In image as well as power.

I agree completely with your last statement but what change they could make is in question. The culture of politics here is characterised by crony capitalism to echo Michael Hennigan and is rife with neopotism, clientalism, favouritism and the opposite of meritocracy. Something serious needs to change - those in power don't seem to be accountable nor does there seem to be enough transparency; the Opposition were even given the wrong figures for the Exchequer just before the budget - is that even right??? That sounds like a form of Treason to me - betraying your own shagging people.

Respvblica wrote:

Hopefully the Dail will disolve soon although FF defintely deserve to stew in it. Still FGers, its time to rise above party politics and take up battelstations.
Personally I'm very heartened by the poll result. I know theres a lot wrong with our democratic institutions but as a dyed in the wool blueshirt who has campaigned in Ireland in a few elections(though now in Spain) it brought a tear to my eye to see us above the old enemy for the first ever time at least in the polls.

Still if necessary I'd rather an Ireland without FG. An Ireland that didnt rely on a few honest men ever 20 years to get us out of the economic mess . I have sent letter on letter to FG and am asking that of they ever get into power can the ensure that they change the constitution by reforming the senate, developing direct democracy at the local level and other measures so as to ensure that a FF dictatorship(by which I mean an unaccountable FF govt which is impervious to public opinion for 4-5 years) is never allowed to occur again.

Fine Gaelers - power is now inevitable, but you must do you duty to the republic as you did in 1922 and 1987.

Stirring stuff Repvblica! Michael Creed for party leader?

Michael Creed has said a few good things all right! hmm. But if you look around there is plenty of nepotism in Fine Gael as well. Its greatest strength is that it is in not corrupted so much by power and yet it is still a broad, large movement in Ireland.

As to what auditor says- well I completely agree. Fg have complained, but sometimes its not been strong enough. To be honest I dont know what Labour, FG and the media are at when they let the kind of carry on of FF-PDs 1997-2008 go ahead without getting together in some kind of allaince for democracy.
Why not?
Sometimes its like being Cicero again watching the age old republic fall around him, shouting to an uninterested populace who have been bought off by bread and circuses.

Respvblica wrote:

Michael Creed has said a few good things all right! hmm. But if you look around there is plenty of nepotism in Fine Gael as well. Its greatest strength is that it is in not corrupted so much by power and yet it is still a broad, large movement in Ireland.

As to what auditor says- well I completely agree. Fg have complained, but sometimes its not been strong enough. To be honest I dont know what Labour, FG and the media are at when they let the kind of carry on of FF-PDs 1997-2008 go ahead without getting together in some kind of allaince for democracy.
Why not?
Sometimes its like being Cicero again watching the age old republic fall around him, shouting to an uninterested populace who have been bought off by bread and circuses.

The lack of a real opposition was a big part of the problem imo. All T.D.s were given big rises in pay, payments for opposition roles and so on - they all, including Labour, looked too well-upholstered and content to be bothered with the hassle of governing. They did know what was happening back to at least 2005. And then maybe like you say, Respvblica, we were corrupted or hypnotised by the ready money floating around to hold our tongues and go about our daily lives.

cactus flower wrote:

Respvblica wrote:

Michael Creed has said a few good things all right! hmm. But if you look around there is plenty of nepotism in Fine Gael as well. Its greatest strength is that it is in not corrupted so much by power and yet it is still a broad, large movement in Ireland.

As to what auditor says- well I completely agree. Fg have complained, but sometimes its not been strong enough. To be honest I dont know what Labour, FG and the media are at when they let the kind of carry on of FF-PDs 1997-2008 go ahead without getting together in some kind of allaince for democracy.
Why not?
Sometimes its like being Cicero again watching the age old republic fall around him, shouting to an uninterested populace who have been bought off by bread and circuses.

The lack of a real opposition was a big part of the problem imo. All T.D.s were given big rises in pay, payments for opposition roles and so on - they all, including Labour, looked too well-upholstered and content to be bothered with the hassle of governing. They did know what was happening back to at least 2005. And then maybe like you say, Respvblica, we were corrupted or hypnotised by the ready money floating around to hold our tongues and go about our daily lives.

Good times definetly make it hearder to changebut there was also a bit of divide and conquer going on.

Respvblica wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Respvblica wrote:

Michael Creed has said a few good things all right! hmm. But if you look around there is plenty of nepotism in Fine Gael as well. Its greatest strength is that it is in not corrupted so much by power and yet it is still a broad, large movement in Ireland.

As to what auditor says- well I completely agree. Fg have complained, but sometimes its not been strong enough. To be honest I dont know what Labour, FG and the media are at when they let the kind of carry on of FF-PDs 1997-2008 go ahead without getting together in some kind of allaince for democracy.
Why not?
Sometimes its like being Cicero again watching the age old republic fall around him, shouting to an uninterested populace who have been bought off by bread and circuses.

The lack of a real opposition was a big part of the problem imo. All T.D.s were given big rises in pay, payments for opposition roles and so on - they all, including Labour, looked too well-upholstered and content to be bothered with the hassle of governing. They did know what was happening back to at least 2005. And then maybe like you say, Respvblica, we were corrupted or hypnotised by the ready money floating around to hold our tongues and go about our daily lives.

Good times definetly make it hearder to changebut there was also a bit of divide and conquer going on.

Their still at it with the division between public and private sectors.

Today's S.Independent was rooting today for a plutocracy with government by a select group of non-resident tax avoiders instead of an elected government. Jody Corcoran named Peter Sutherland and Dermot Desmond as suitable people to rule us in default of effective government.
Its the likes of Sutherland that accelerated this whole mess in the first place.