Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

Cowen is now 100+ days in office and his term so far has been marked by bad news, bad weather and, no doubt, a lot of bad language - mostly about public financial deficits, the economy, lisbon, wage talks. It doesn't appear that Fianna Fáil under Cowen in 2008 is going to enjoy the the financial comfort of Ahern's entry into office again in 2002.

Unfortunately for Fianna Fail and for the country their periods of tenure now tend to be characterised by economic and financial mismanagement. This is how Bruce Arnold says it about the boom years

Quote :

There was an immoral slurping through of wealth that was disposed of in a prodigal and ill-considered way.

Arnold, the Independent


Ahern left in disgrace this year on the back of a decade of potentially crippling bad management of our economy by an administration which featured Cowen as minister for finance. Too suddenly the public accounts are billions in deficit when in years immediately prior there existed surplus billions in the national accounts. Now there is the inevitable talk of cutbacks in the most vulnerable areas of education, health, social welfare ..


Independent

Amalgamation of organisations created over the boom years and spending cutbacks will be implented leaving the capital budget intact, is the plan but to what social cost?


The Irish Times

No joined-up thinkng, no joined up roads, the swampy little mess we are in is symbolised for me by a lack of a motorway connecting the east and west of the country despite all the boom years. That it will be completed by 2010 or so is 10 years too late in my view. Did we squander the boom building private houses instead of classrooms? Are bankers and builders now well off with houses on the continent while we need to give out private contracts to fund hospitals? And when we discuss this in the media we get dismissed by our politicians

Quote :

Critics of the out-of-control construction boom, were repeatedly accused of "talking down the economy" and last February, Minister for Defence and Sunday Independent columnist Willie O'Dea wrote: "The actual risk to our economy now does not come from fluctuating world markets, but from talking down our strengths and effectively talking ourselves into a crisis.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1014465.shtml

But is this the true picture of the Fianna Fail administration after the boom years?

Quote :

Quite suddenly, the optimism of the Celtic Tiger era has given way to despair and the new government of Brian Cowen has been seen to mirror that despair. The performance of the leading trio — Brian Cowen, Mary Coghlan and Brian Lenihan — has been unsure and floundering. They have failed to communicate the underlying strengths of the economy and, in the wake of the Lisbon Treaty rejection, the secure place Ireland continues to enjoy within the EU

http://www.village.ie/

http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2008/07/20/story34552.asp#

This is from last week's Sunday Business Post and gives us the time frame (next General Election due 2011-2012) and the various other electoral hurdles before then - Dublin South, a possible Lisbon Referendum and the European Elections.

Quote :

The rhythms of political life are set by elections and by going to the polls. Politicians never take their eyes off the calendar on the wall and always know when the next milestone event with the electorate is due. Entire political careers are divided into four- and five-year cycles. Bertie Ahern’s terms as Taoiseach were defined by his determination to make them last their allotted five years.

When Enda Kenny led his party to a resounding success (but not into government) at last year’s general election, he immediately knew he had to grit his teeth and reset his horizon to 2011 or 2012.

Even as the finance minister grapples with the impact of the economy’s slowdown, Brian Lenihan has his eyes firmly set on the next general election and trying to get the bad stuff through early in this government’s term so better conditions might prevail as it approaches its end. Just a few months ago, when Brian Cowen became Taoiseach, the electoral calendar looked relatively uncomplicated. His – and Fianna Fáil’s - next set-piece engagement with the voters would be in June 2009 at the local and European elections, followed by a general election, probably in 2012.There would be plenty of time to organise strategies in place.

The Lisbon referendum defeat and the untimely death of Dublin South TD Seamus Brennan have thrown those plans into the air. The Taoiseach now has to tell his European colleagues by October whether Ireland is holding a second referendum If - as seems likely - he does, then he has to select a date - probably early spring next year. Squeezing this into the political calendar will be a nightmare. By next spring, it can reasonably be expected that Irish voters will have had a humdinger of a budget in December and will be grappling with a struggling economy and still-increasing fuel and energy costs.

These are hardly ideal conditions in which to convince the electorate to think lofty thoughts about the future of Europe, when giving the government a kicking looks a more satisfying alternative. According to anecdotal post-mortems on the Lisbon referendum, voters had a multiplicity of micro-issues for voting No, such as perceived neglect of the fishing industry or local junior ministers being demoted. If the country is going to the polls to vote on Europe, that is the obvious time also to ask the voters of Dublin South to choose a replacement for Brennan. That by-election is unlikely to offer any joy for Fianna Fáil.

Despite the impressive vote-winning powers of Brennan and his party colleague Tom Kitt down the years, it is now an established feature of our political life that government parties don’t win by-elections. It is the early 1980s since that last happened and the volatile voters of Dublin South are most unlikely to return a Fianna Fáil candidate, even if it is a member of Brennan’s family. Instead the main opposition parties will try to make the by-election - as they always do - into a referendum on the government’s performance. Dublin South is on RTE’s and the media’s doorstep, so saturation coverage can be expected. The Labour candidate and favourite, Senator Alex White, is a former RTE producer and a media favourite.

If the government holds and wins a referendum, will the subsequent European elections make it more or less likely that Fianna Fáil will do well? And what if it is lost again? Potential problems include the declared intention of Ben Dunne to stand if there is a second Lisbon referendum, and the news that Declan Ganley and Libertas are raising money and considering running candidates in Ireland and across Europe.

The European elections in Ireland have a history of electing independent candidates (Dana, Marian Harkin, Kathy Sinnott), so it would be premature to dismiss the prospects of Dunne or others who might yet emerge.

Within a little over a year of becoming prime minister, Gordon Brown faces a cliffhanger by-election next week in Glasgow East. It is an astonishing example of how quickly a glittering political future can dissipate. Brian Cowen is still a very long way from that stage and, while some comparisons between Brown and Cowen bear up, far more do not.

Nevertheless, repeated visits to the polling stations over the next 12 months will have a considerable influence on the medium and long-term prospects for our Taoiseach.

These elections are likely to be humdingers. FF's survival relies imo on a cross-class consensus and the appearance of strong leadership, along with the half-hearted nature of opposition. The consensus is likely to be undermined as the recession hits some parts of the population much harded than others. So its a probably No from me.

I just broke the dead lock at 5 a piece! Who says an individual's ballot doesn't count . Unless the Greens and indos leave the coalition, there's no way the govt won't finish its term. FF don't give up power just because of d'economy or de Lisburn vote. They probably should get a spanking at the locals next year but one can never tell. The Greens have made their bed and intend to lie in it. From what I can tell looking in from the outside, they're basically FFers with an eco slant. Their voters salve their consciences by voting Green and then driving away from the polling station in their SVUs. Maybe harsh, and certainly very broadly brush stroked, but that's how I see it.

And let's face facts, the opposition ain't exactly lighting the world politic on fire either.

I don't think so. Shane Coleman wrote a fairly comprehensive piece in the ST a few weeks ago and between the census, the Boundary Commission Review, the risk of Lisbon 2 being rejected, the continuing stress caused by the economic situation, I see this Dáil falling about 1 year short. It doesn't seem likely that we'll be voting in May 2012. I'd say May 2011 is more likely.

one year short is a waste of time for ff, better implode mid 2009, let FG or whomever take the rap for any cutbacks and then lef Zanu-ff ride in on a Spend spend, spend ticket.

THat said, I reckon FF will hang on as the greens have no where to go.

Labour is the dark red horse.

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

cactus flower wrote:

Labour is the dark red horse.

Labour are set to make the biggest mistake of their lives in the next election, grabbing hold of the third rail while shooting themselves in the foot and will see themselves limping along from the self inflicted wounds for the next ten years.

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

Does that matter?

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

They will, but they won't have a minister. They might have a TD.

rockyracoon wrote:

Unless the Greens and indos leave the coalition, there's no way the govt won't finish its term. FF don't give up power just because of d'economy or de Lisburn vote. They probably should get a spanking at the locals next year but one can never tell. The Greens have made their bed and intend to lie in it. From what I can tell looking in from the outside, they're basically FFers with an eco slant. Their voters salve their consciences by voting Green and then driving away from the polling station in their SVUs. Maybe harsh, and certainly very broadly brush stroked, but that's how I see it.

I won't deny I'm a Green voter and that's mainly because they have distinct policies as opposed to having no visible policies like the likes of the big parties. I don't know what I'm voting for when I'm voting FG or FF if ever ... there is no coherency, no character about their politics. At least the smaller parties have this - the PDs and Sinn Fein stand for something but these hoors blow with the wind. The Irish seem to be happy enough with this though.

Maybe some of the Greens policies are not to the taste of everyone but again, at least they have identifiable policies with some structure attached to them. Gormley limiting the growth of Monaghan may not have been welcome locally by all but I'd guess there was enough support for it. People are aware of what's going on with building and it has been revealed to have no wholesome structure attached to it - some places are allowed to blossom like mushrooms while there is huge dispute in other quarters such as Ballsbridge and Dunne's tower. There is a lot of popular support for the tower, incidentally, which is undergoing an appeal and a hearing which begins in Croke park on the 9th September.
Hearing into Dunne high-rise complex in Ballsbridge to be held next month

Some infrastructure is needed, more is built willy-nilly on a whim where I suspect the charge of local corruption might be fact. We need to listen to our planners but we don't. Some developments have not gone ahead because the underlying infrastructure wasn't created in the first place by the local authority. How can a developer shlock a load of houses there, which are needed, if the roads and sewage isn't there?

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Do you remember what happened with the Shannon slots last year? Some TDs had bricks in their pants, Timmy Dooley and Tony Kileen and maybe Willie O'Dea and a ton of other Fianna Failers down here. Scores of local businesses protested and it remains to be seen what will happen in the locals next year - there is a bit of noise about giving FF a severe hammering because of that alone. Another incident like that coming up to the next term and a TD is asked to vote against the govt. or else he loses his seat ...? Could something like this happen?

The Shannon slots could have been kept or scaled down gradually but there is deep suspicion down here that those slots had been given away as a political gift by Ahern. No matter, the decision could have been changed but there was little political will at the end of a long campaign by a lot of business people down here.

I fear there are a lot of decisions made on political grounds that have done infrastructural damage and I wonder if the likes of Dunne's 37-storey tower in Dublin is another one?

EVENTS are the unpredictable and that is what makes politics interesting. Usually something turns up to liven it up and make people dive for cover. Any Christine Keelers lurking in the shadows?

Its all about the events, isn't it?

Look at the last year..
A popular Taoiseach resigned in disgrace.
Lisbon (One) defeated.
Property Boom turns Property Bust.
Death of a popular (former) minister, Seamus Brennan.

Cowen was very lucky the WTO talks collapsed. Would he have veto-ed them? I think the IFA have lost some of their confidence in Fianna Fail.

Then there is smaller local issues like the Shannon Slots and the Eirgrid expansion in Meath and Louth.

If the GE was held this year instead of last year, the results would have been very different.

I think a lot depends on Lisbon Two. On how it is handled, and if there is a referendum, what the result is.
If there are no more big "events" between now and 2012, then the government will hold. After all, they have held through these recent events.

But who knows what could be thrown up?

eoinmn wrote:

If there are no more big "events" between now and 2012, then the government will hold. After all, they have held through these recent events.

That's 4 years of no big events, which is unlikely.

Lisbon round 2 will be the next big one.

Squire wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

Does that matter?

It does to the PDs

I dont think it will go the full term. I reckon the Lisbon treaty will re-emerge in a "back me or sack me" format.

You can probebly deduce what that will entail.

Johnny Keogh wrote:

Squire wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

Does that matter?

It does to the PDs

I dont think it will go the full term. I reckon the Lisbon treaty will re-emerge in a "back me or sack me" format.

You can probebly deduce what that will entail.

Oops Johnny. That is the first time I've mentioned the PDs in weeks.

Would PDs join/vote for Libertas if it ran in the Europeans ?

cactus flower wrote:

Johnny Keogh wrote:

Squire wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

Does that matter?

It does to the PDs

I dont think it will go the full term. I reckon the Lisbon treaty will re-emerge in a "back me or sack me" format.

You can probebly deduce what that will entail.

Oops Johnny. That is the first time I've mentioned the PDs in weeks.

Would PDs join/vote for Libertas if it ran in the Europeans ?

It's a possibility but I don't think so. To do so would be confusing for their supporters and they would be diluting the PD brand, which they can't afford to do right now.

They could do it though, while they were for the Lisbon Treaty (god knows why) they wouldn't be entirely at odds with the Libertas platform for the Euros. And the YPDs are tugging themselves over us as it is *shudder*.

cookiemonster wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Johnny Keogh wrote:

Squire wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Why would any of the Parties in government decide to fall on their swords? Nothing to justify that but as they say EVENTS.

Will the PDs still exist in a year ?

Does that matter?

It does to the PDs

I dont think it will go the full term. I reckon the Lisbon treaty will re-emerge in a "back me or sack me" format.

You can probebly deduce what that will entail.

Oops Johnny. That is the first time I've mentioned the PDs in weeks.

Would PDs join/vote for Libertas if it ran in the Europeans ?

It's a possibility but I don't think so. To do so would be confusing for their supporters and they would be diluting the PD brand, which they can't afford to do right now.

They could do it though, while they were for the Lisbon Treaty (god knows why) they wouldn't be entirely at odds with the Libertas platform for the Euros. And the YPDs are tugging themselves over us as it is *shudder*.

Is your platform/programme published yet Cookie ?

I voted No. It's not that the Greens are inclined to pull out -- as someone said, they have nowhere to go. It's that a lot of things are going to fall apart over the next couple of years.

I was discussing this recently with a friend who is involved in the GP. Most unlikely that they will walk in the next year or two, not least because they need to make a mark. Carbon levy, whatever. Something, anything. So at least 24 months it is. And the thinking in the GP is that if they did walk chances are the Labour Party would be more than willing to take up the slack. After all you're talking about 20 odd TDs who haven't had a sniff of state power in over a decade. Now. That changes if the GP walks with only a year to go to an election, say in early 2011. But that's a bit tricky because they might well be seen to be opportunist, only going when it suited them to do so to improve their public image. Either way I suspect we're locked in to a full five year term. And let's not even talk about SF whose goal is to join an FF led coalition in 2012. An important aspect of this is that with Seamus Brennan's passing I believe that the GP is now essential to the coalition, i.e. if other walked they'd be necessary to make up the numbers. No one else will walk. But even so.

And the current climate economically. I doubt FG or even Labour want a part of that. They'll play a long game, with what little they have...

WorldbyStorm wrote:

I was discussing this recently with a friend who is involved in the GP. Most unlikely that they will walk in the next year or two, not least because they need to make a mark. Carbon levy, whatever. Something, anything. So at least 24 months it is. And the thinking in the GP is that if they did walk chances are the Labour Party would be more than willing to take up the slack. After all you're talking about 20 odd TDs who haven't had a sniff of state power in over a decade. Now. That changes if the GP walks with only a year to go to an election, say in early 2011. But that's a bit tricky because they might well be seen to be opportunist, only going when it suited them to do so to improve their public image. Either way I suspect we're locked in to a full five year term. And let's not even talk about SF whose goal is to join an FF led coalition in 2012. An important aspect of this is that with Seamus Brennan's passing I believe that the GP is now essential to the coalition, i.e. if other walked they'd be necessary to make up the numbers. No one else will walk. But even so.

And the current climate economically. I doubt FG or even Labour want a part of that. They'll play a long game, with what little they have...

Good to see you WbS.

That would make a lot of sense to me, starting from where we are now. But starting from where we will be in five years time and working back, there is a fair chance of predictions not being borne out. This chalice is both poisoned and very hot to handle. We are not just seeing another cyclical downturn, its more of a shift into a new universe. In previous downturns we didn't have to handle climate change and an oil and gas supply problem of this scale. In Ireland, the boom that is imploding is unprecedented. Being an open economy looks advantageous in a global expansion but in a global contraction, we are trying to hold water in a sieve.

Social consensus over the last ten years was based on cheap and easy credit. In the next ten years the opportunities will have to beaten out of the ditches. There are going to be a lot of angry people around, new parties and fissures in parties may open up.

Whatever happens is unlikely to be something that could be predicted now.

cactus flower wrote:

. . . In Ireland, the boom that is imploding is unprecedented. Being an open economy looks advantageous in a global expansion but in a global contraction, we are trying to hold water in a sieve.

Social consensus over the last ten years was based on cheap and easy credit. In the next ten years the opportunities will have to beaten out of the ditches. There are going to be a lot of angry people around, new parties and fissures in parties may open up.

Whatever happens is unlikely to be something that could be predicted now.

I was wondering about this myself. There is already a general unease opening up among wage earners across the country. There's a notion forming that the current economic-political scale is terribly askew and not in favour of the average worker. The old left-right devide is largely irrelevant imo. Anyone or any party who can galvanise this unease may attract considerable support. I would think that some central common denominator would have to be established to bind a new party together, but I can't see anything developing right now beyond a general disquiet. Anyway, the FF broad church approach makes it hard for a new political entity of the centre to take hold. As is evidenced by the GE and opinion polls, FF's core support of c.35-40% seems rock solid. While fringe parties may come and go, we can be nearly certain that FF will be at the core of Irish politics for decades to come.

On a side note, SF has no stated policy on political alliances, not least of all with FF. It doesn't take a political genius to realise FF would rather destroy SF than be in govt with them.

rockyracoon wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

. . . In Ireland, the boom that is imploding is unprecedented. Being an open economy looks advantageous in a global expansion but in a global contraction, we are trying to hold water in a sieve.

Social consensus over the last ten years was based on cheap and easy credit. In the next ten years the opportunities will have to beaten out of the ditches. There are going to be a lot of angry people around, new parties and fissures in parties may open up.

Whatever happens is unlikely to be something that could be predicted now.

I was wondering about this myself. There is already a general unease opening up among wage earners across the country. There's a notion forming that the current economic-political scale is terribly askew and not in favour of the average worker. The old left-right devide is largely irrelevant imo. Anyone or any party who can galvanise this unease may attract considerable support. I would think that some central common denominator would have to be established to bind a new party together, but I can't see anything developing right now beyond a general disquiet. Anyway, the FF broad church approach makes it hard for a new political entity of the centre to take hold. As is evidenced by the GE and opinion polls, FF's core support of c.35-40% seems rock solid. While fringe parties may come and go, we can be nearly certain that FF will be at the core of Irish politics for decades to come.

On a side note, SF has no stated policy on political alliances, not least of all with FF. It doesn't take a political genius to realise FF would rather destroy SF than be in govt with them.

You're spot on with regards the socio-economic basis of the Irish economy. I think with the downturn and the decline of the housing market and cheap credit the social-partnership model we are so used to is fatally ruined. Not too many commentators have noted it, but social partnership was about more than wage restraint between the unions and IBEC. The government also chipped in tax cuts, which I don't think can occur any longer. Public dissatisfaction with public services is latent, but has never really reached a tipping point so long as tax cuts kept coming. Lets face it, FF won the last election because people voted with their pockets in mind, not public services.

As to whether the Dail lasts, well that depends on how rocky the ride gets for the parties in power.

Besides, the government is likely, if anything, to have to raise taxes in the medium term. Thus, wage restraint is going to become less likely. In fact, as we saw a few weeks ago, the tipping point for social partnership has already begun. I think there is an opportunity to propose a new model. What form that takes is very much open to decision by the political establishment. Had Labour or even the Greens been in government now, in economic portfolio's, we may very much have seen a shift in the basis of out economic prosperity. As FF are in power, this shift may take longer to occur, and may be more conservative, but I'm pretty confident that some change will happen.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of "Spiritus Mundi"
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

wby


The centre looks shaky to me, and the beast unfriendly.
We'd better come up with an alternative, as neither of Yeats visions is attractive.