New poll sees government satisfaction down to 10% /New Red C Poll

A new Millward Brown/IMS in tomorrow's Irish Independent will show government satisfaction down to 10% and confirm the basics of the TNS/mrbi poll.

As the results are embargoed until 9am I cannot give more details but they are bad bad bad for the government, good for FG and superb for Labour, especially considering that IMS methodology overestimates FF and Labour while underestimating FG. If that is the case this time FF will be going into the ard fheis in the depths of depression. This is their worst IMS result ever by a mile.

One critical detail might be sample size - can you tell us if it's a good sized sample ?

In fairness, it is impossible to see how a Government can continue under these circumstances, when there is a need for putting fair and realistic measures in place without any more delay.

It seems that Fianna Fail councillors are deserting in droves - is the strategy to "go native" as faux independents? Or are they relying on new candidates (40%?) who will claim innocence? The local elections will be extraordinary.

Auditor #9 wrote:

One critical detail might be sample size - can you tell us if it's a good sized sample ?

1108 adults on Monday and Tuesday at 100 sampling points.

Papal_knight Two wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

One critical detail might be sample size - can you tell us if it's a good sized sample ?

1108 adults on Monday and Tuesday at 100 sampling points.

Do you know yet what Labour, FG and the Greens are on?

FF 25%
FG 30%
Lab 22%
Green 5%
SF 7%
Indes 10%

Leaders Sat/dis/DN

Cowen 21/72/7
Kenny 29/57/14
Gilmore 52/28/20
Gormley 28/52/20
Adams 37/41/22

The crazy thing is that one in four of your neighbours still support Fianna Fáil .

new election

Yes 52%
No 40%
DK 8%

cactus flower wrote:

Papal_knight Two wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

One critical detail might be sample size - can you tell us if it's a good sized sample ?

1108 adults on Monday and Tuesday at 100 sampling points.

Do you know yet what Labour, FG and the Greens are on?

I've known since 7.40 but could not post it. The Indo embargoed it until 9pm.

One thing: Millward Brown/IMS tend to overestimate FF and Labour, and underestimate FG.

More than 52% want an election immediately: unclear what the exact question was.

85% are dissatisfied with the Government.

1100 sample monday and tuesday.

4% don't know
86% unsatisified
10% satisified with Government

52% said they wanted a GE
40% (?) said they didn't
the rest didn't know

25% would vote for FF
30% for FG
22% Labour
5% Green
7% SF
10% Other

22% satisified with Cowen
29% with Kenny
52% with Gimore

Interesting alright that 86% not satisfied with Government but only 52% want GE. Ah the vacillating that FF can occasion...

People appreciate how disruptive an election might be, perhaps.

Also, there is the uncertainty of who you would get as a Government.

This post is so good I've said it twice.

Excellent result for FF, up 3 from the last poll.

cactus flower wrote:

People appreciate how disruptive an election might be, perhaps.

Also, there is the uncertainty of who you would get as a Government.

The limitations of representative democracy?

I'd say the people could come to a consensus over the economy quicker than over tribal politics .
A pity.

Down down down the ship goes and theres no way of stopping it.

tonys wrote:

This post is so good I've said it twice.

Excellent result for FF, up 3 from the last poll.

Well done tonys. Probably all down to you. Who do you think they took the votes from?

Glad to see the Shinners still stagnant anyway.

Respvblica wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

People appreciate how disruptive an election might be, perhaps.

Also, there is the uncertainty of who you would get as a Government.

The limitations of representative democracy?

I'd say the people could come to a consensus over the economy quicker than over tribal politics .
A pity.

Down down down the ship goes and theres no way of stopping it.

Ah hello Respvblica. I fear you are right. The bizarre spectacle of a world full of glittering produce and chugging machinery grinding to a halt for some peculiar reason to do with numbers and bits of paper.

They didn't take it from anywhere. It's a different poll. Never thought I'd see a FF supporter celebrating that the party are on 25%

unaligned wrote:

They didn't take it from anywhere. It's a different poll. Never thought I'd see a FF supporter celebrating that the party are on 25%

You're right. Within the normal range of variability, do you think? Lots of unexpected sight to come.

It's hard to call. I can't see them dropping below 20 but who knows? Good news for Labour, two seperate polls have them above 20%.

cactus flower wrote:

tonys wrote:

This post is so good I've said it twice.

Excellent result for FF, up 3 from the last poll.

Well done tonys. Probably all down to you. Who do you think they took the votes from?

Took them back from Labour.

Seriously though, the real level of support for FF can be seen in the 40% who don't want an election. People are pissed off, but even in their pissed offness they know what way they'd vote if it were an election rather than cheap talk to a pollster.

Of that 40% I'd say a third don't want the disruption of an election, a third don't want a change of government and a third look on an election as a lottery, as there is so little certainty on who would be able to form a government and what it would be like.

tonys wrote:

This post is so good I've said it twice.

Excellent result for FF, up 3 from the last poll.

As every first year student learns in their first thirty seconds of the lecture on polling - you cannot compare different polls from diffferent companies because they use different and incompatible methodologies.

And as anyone who has ever following Irish polling knows, Millward Brown/IMS as IMS consistently over-estimated FF in practically every poll they have done since the 1980s. The overestimation is usually in the region of 3-5%. They also marginally overestimate Labour by about 2% and underestimate FG by on average 3%. It is such a constant that everyone, even FF, takes that into account in reading Millward Brown/IMS polls. You can be 100% sure that Sean Dorgan knows and is presuming if an IMS poll rates FF at 25%, that means their real number is in the range of 20-23%. Because unlike you he and the professional number crunchers in FF know that FF are in the 20-23% range, which is 7-10% below the level historically was believed to be below the rock bottom result FF could hit. When Albert Reynolds hit 39.1% in 1992 he was thought to have had a disaster. FF support is now only a little above half of the 'disaster' of 1992.

So to claim that 25% in an IMS is "excellent" for FF is either deluded beyond belief or frantically clutching at straws.

What the poll shows is that FG have been ahead of FF now in seven polls in a row. This is historically the first IMS poll where FG are ahead of FF ever. So the poll suggests that FF, once the dominant political party, have been reduced to battling with Labour for second place - a party that once had one-in-two voters in the bag now is struggling to get one-in-four. Some 'excellent' result, eh!

(BTW the poll also shows that even FF and Labour would not have the seat totals to be able to form a government. On these numbers FF would be under 40 and Labour in the early 30s.

Papal_knight Two wrote:

tonys wrote:

This post is so good I've said it twice.

Excellent result for FF, up 3 from the last poll.

As every first year student learns in their first thirty seconds of the lecture on polling - you cannot compare different polls from diffferent companies because they use different and incompatible methodologies.

And as anyone who has ever following Irish polling knows, Millward Brown/IMS as IMS consistently over-estimated FF in practically every poll they have done since the 1980s. The overestimation is usually in the region of 3-5%. They also marginally overestimate Labour by about 2% and underestimate FG by on average 3%. It is such a constant that everyone, even FF, takes that into account in reading Millward Brown/IMS polls. You can be 100% sure that Sean Dorgan knows and is presuming if an IMS poll rates FF at 25%, that means their real number is in the range of 20-23%. Because unlike you he and the professional number crunchers in FF know that FF are in the 20-23% range, which is 7-10% below the level historically was believed to be below the rock bottom result FF could hit. When Albert Reynolds hit 39.1% in 1992 he was thought to have had a disaster. FF support is now only a little above half of the 'disaster' of 1992.

So to claim that 25% in an IMS is "excellent" for FF is either deluded beyond belief or frantically clutching at straws.

What the poll shows is that FG have been ahead of FF now in seven polls in a row. This is historically the first IMS poll where FG are ahead of FF ever. So the poll suggests that FF, once the dominant political party, have been reduced to battling with Labour for second place - a party that once had one-in-two voters in the bag now is struggling to get one-in-four. Some 'excellent' result, eh!

(BTW the poll also shows that even FF and Labour would not have the seat totals to be able to form a government. On these numbers FF would be under 40 and Labour in the early 30s.

You really are one dimensional, aren’t ya.

You think I don’t know this poll was from a different polling organisation to the Irish Times poll?

You think I really believe 25% would be a good result for FF?

In your various guises you’ve been hanging around political web sites since God was a boy and you still haven’t got a pinch of sense in your head.

BTW polls don’t translate into seats, votes do.