Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

What time is it at? I'm going for dinner on Stephen's Green on Wednesday evening - better schedule it for a time that we won't get bamboozled .

Its on the Shoutbox

Rally Against Budget: Kildare Street entrance to Leinster House at 12.30pm. Wed. 22nd Oct 08.

I'm hoping to ferry a few neighbours up.

RTE News appointed that the Government has an 8 seat majority. Seems unlikely that it would fall.

johnfás wrote:

RTE News appointed that the Government has an 8 seat majority. Seems unlikely that it would fall.

I think the odds of this Government's collapse have shortened considerably over the past two weeks. This is the first of many very bad budgets. Next year's and the year after's budgets will not be any better and in actual fact will probably be worse than this one. The Government will find it virtually impossible to survive these three shocks and the Government is very likely to fall before the Constitutionally-required 2012 General Election.

The Greens, a rump of disaffected backbenchers, a run of poor by-elections(they'd be likely to lose Séamus Brennan's seat if a Brennan doesn't run) or a flight of independents or all of the above in some combination could easily occur.

Turbulent economic times usually produce equally turbulent political conditions. This Dáil will fall.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

johnfás wrote:

RTE News appointed that the Government has an 8 seat majority. Seems unlikely that it would fall.

I think the odds of this Government's collapse have shortened considerably over the past two weeks. This is the first of many very bad budgets. Next year's and the year after's budgets will not be any better and in actual fact will probably be worse than this one. The Government will find it virtually impossible to survive these three shocks and the Government is very likely to fall before the Constitutionally-required 2012 General Election.

The Greens, a rump of disaffected backbenchers, a run of poor by-elections(they'd be likely to lose Séamus Brennan's seat if a Brennan doesn't run) or a flight of independents or all of the above in some combination could easily occur.

Turbulent economic times usually produce equally turbulent political conditions. This Dáil will fall.

Agree 100% with this analysis. Factor in another shot at the Lisbon Treaty and you have a political nightmare.

unaligned wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

johnfás wrote:

RTE News appointed that the Government has an 8 seat majority. Seems unlikely that it would fall.

I think the odds of this Government's collapse have shortened considerably over the past two weeks. This is the first of many very bad budgets. Next year's and the year after's budgets will not be any better and in actual fact will probably be worse than this one. The Government will find it virtually impossible to survive these three shocks and the Government is very likely to fall before the Constitutionally-required 2012 General Election.

The Greens, a rump of disaffected backbenchers, a run of poor by-elections(they'd be likely to lose Séamus Brennan's seat if a Brennan doesn't run) or a flight of independents or all of the above in some combination could easily occur.

Turbulent economic times usually produce equally turbulent political conditions. This Dáil will fall.

Agree 100% with this analysis. Factor in another shot at the Lisbon Treaty and you have a political nightmare.

Thank you unaligned. And you have a putative children's rights referendum, the local and European elections and the Presidential election all could go down badly and lead to Cowen's fall as Taoiseach and another General Election. After the utter boredom of the 2002-2007 Dáil, this one's going to be very interesting, too bad it won't last the full run!

johnfás wrote:

EVM - did you also substract the Ceann Comhairle? If you didn't then they have 76 sitting and supporting TDs. The Ceann Comhairle only comes into play where there is a tie. Which is of course possible in the current situation with only 164 voting TDs.

Sorry johnfás, I missed this post earlier.

Yeh, 76 sitting + CC in a tie.

So 76+6+2(Indo)+2(PD) = 86

So 5 jumpers would cause a BIG problem. They can hang on with 4.

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

A volatile poll and it comes from Red C, TNS Mrbi are the most accurate pollsters in the land. They should take a similar poll in another month as this one is perhaps overstating the anger against the government.

The Government are still 12 points behind their putative replacements. Short of an election before Christmas, Fianna Fáil are still safe.

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

Dont mean to question your authority on all things left wing CF , But Labour 15 + Sinn Fein 10 = 25 not 35 - well in my world anyway.

Wont mention a thing about the Left and figures, balancing the books etc etc

***Edo posted before

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

I just read a scary post by Edo here who quotes in full a very well written Irish Times analysis piece about the mixed fortunes of the Irish electorate since the seventies and our tendency to compete rather than co-operate in times of national trouble. Edo is concluding that the 'nuclear option' would be a Govt. of FF and FG - is that possible ?

I tend to think of these things as being cultural and class-based systemic problems rather than something that can be sorted out by political parties in government with or against each other. Perhaps a good period of financial austerity might straighten people out - the Economic Research Institute of Hard Knocks.

It's interesting to see the protests happening and it would be great if people would demand, in a co-ordinated fashion, a bit of an upgrade to the current system - we're still running a non-GUI version of Govt. and it's time we got something a little bit more interactive. It's really time that people started realising that they can have something more interactive, something which would give everyone more responsibility.

When I see the protests I can't help getting youngdan's recent posts out of my head - rakes of people shouting "I want I want I want and I want it now".

Can you give me an example of FG being right wing

youngdan wrote:

Can you give me an example of FG being right wing

It all on depends on your perspective - from CFs and othesr position here way out on the left - FG appear to be right wing - ie they support a mixed economy with a preference for the free market but not always, law and order and would have more cultural conservatives with a small "c" than Fianna Fail - they are a centrist party - as are Fianna Fail - by US and British Standards - FG are postively social democratic.

All comes down to where you are standing yourself on the political spectrum.

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

Betty Doran, a Green Party Councillor in Westmeath (in fact, the only elected Green in the Midlands - Laois, Offaly and Westmeath) resigned from the party yesterday because she felt she could not stand over the savagery of the cuts in the budget and the Greens not supporting the FG motion in the Dáil the other night. Betty has moved around a bit over the years but now she's left politics completely. She was on Mullingar Town Council which she also resigned from over another issue. I heard her on local radio yesterday - a very, very angry and disillusioned woman.

It's not, however a rational conclusion that the government should be removed. In fact, the very last thing this country needs right now is a general election with the race between Dumb and Dumber.

I agree with Kate on that and I posted the same on an earlier page on this thread.

A General Election is the last thing we need right now. I dislike Fianna Fáil to the core but I would rather Fianna Fáil than a country in even more disarray which is what will happen if we have to go through another election campaign right now.

Auditor #9 wrote:

***Edo posted before

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

I just read a scary post by Edo here who quotes in full a very well written Irish Times analysis piece about the mixed fortunes of the Irish electorate since the seventies and our tendency to compete rather than co-operate in times of national trouble. Edo is concluding that the 'nuclear option' would be a Govt. of FF and FG - is that possible ?

I tend to think of these things as being cultural and class-based systemic problems rather than something that can be sorted out by political parties in government with or against each other. Perhaps a good period of financial austerity might straighten people out - the Economic Research Institute of Hard Knocks.

It's interesting to see the protests happening and it would be great if people would demand, in a co-ordinated fashion, a bit of an upgrade to the current system - we're still running a non-GUI version of Govt. and it's time we got something a little bit more interactive. It's really time that people started realising that they can have something more interactive, something which would give everyone more responsibility.

When I see the protests I can't help getting youngdan's recent posts out of my head - rakes of people shouting "I want I want I want and I want it now".

Michael Hennigan made the point today that the Oireachtas just voted themselves another fat increase. They have it now. Ireland is one of the most unequal economies in the OECD, thanks to this Government. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/56/41494435.pdf

I can't be persuaded to see the most disadvantaged groups like Traveller children, children with disabilities, the sick elderly, as greedy young suckling at the sow. Our politicians are obscenely over-paid and that in itself makes them more and more remote from the electorate and hostile to the poor. A good part of the budget is aimed at supporting the construction sector with ill considered and wasteful public works and the evoting machines are still sittting there.

FF is the party of votes, and me fein. They appear completely swamped and overtaken by the extent of the crisis. I don't see any party that can deal with it to be honest with you. It is certainly not back to the 1980s and the politicians and journalists who keep saying it is are creating an illusion. There is a consensus growing between economists that its going to take massive public intervention in industry as well as credit supply to keep anything approaching a viable economy going. I don't see any signs that any of the parties see that.

The evoting machines will sit there indefinately until they are either destroyed (unlikely) or used (even less likely) - they are flawed and have little or no resale value.

Edo wrote:

youngdan wrote:

Can you give me an example of FG being right wing

It all on depends on your perspective - from CFs and othesr position here way out on the left - FG appear to be right wing - ie they support a mixed economy with a preference for the free market but not always, law and order and would have more cultural conservatives with a small "c" than Fianna Fail - they are a centrist party - as are Fianna Fail - by US and British Standards - FG are postively social democratic.

All comes down to where you are standing yourself on the political spectrum.

If it depends on perspective, then FG's own perspective counts for something. The European political grouping - EPPs- that FG chooses to belong to is Sarkozy and Merkel's parties' group. Its a "Christian Democratic" grouping that from my perspective is right wing. FG's origins were in the far right.

http://www.answers.com/topic/european-people-s-party

Whatever about Fine Gael's leanings I am really not sure that an argument based on European Groupings, which are second order at best, are the best way to make it, cactus. On your reckoning surely they should be in with the fascists, where Fianna Fáil are.

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

***Edo posted before

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

I just read a scary post by Edo here who quotes in full a very well written Irish Times analysis piece about the mixed fortunes of the Irish electorate since the seventies and our tendency to compete rather than co-operate in times of national trouble. Edo is concluding that the 'nuclear option' would be a Govt. of FF and FG - is that possible ?

I tend to think of these things as being cultural and class-based systemic problems rather than something that can be sorted out by political parties in government with or against each other. Perhaps a good period of financial austerity might straighten people out - the Economic Research Institute of Hard Knocks.

It's interesting to see the protests happening and it would be great if people would demand, in a co-ordinated fashion, a bit of an upgrade to the current system - we're still running a non-GUI version of Govt. and it's time we got something a little bit more interactive. It's really time that people started realising that they can have something more interactive, something which would give everyone more responsibility.

When I see the protests I can't help getting youngdan's recent posts out of my head - rakes of people shouting "I want I want I want and I want it now".

Michael Hennigan made the point today that the Oireachtas just voted themselves another fat increase. They have it now. Ireland is one of the most unequal economies in the OECD, thanks to this Government. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/56/41494435.pdf

I can't be persuaded to see the most disadvantaged groups like Traveller children, children with disabilities, the sick elderly, as greedy young suckling at the sow. Our politicians are obscenely over-paid and that in itself makes them more and more remote from the electorate and hostile to the poor. A good part of the budget is aimed at supporting the construction sector with ill considered and wasteful public works and the evoting machines are still sittting there.

FF is the party of votes, and me fein. They appear completely swamped and overtaken by the extent of the crisis. I don't see any party that can deal with it to be honest with you. It is certainly not back to the 1980s and the politicians and journalists who keep saying it is are creating an illusion. There is a consensus growing between economists that its going to take massive public intervention in industry as well as credit supply to keep anything approaching a viable economy going. I don't see any signs that any of the parties see that.

Just one simple question CF - where are the Government going to get the money from all this state intervention in industry, keeping the unions sweet in the public sector where the ethos will be "we have what we hold" and all the other "worthy cases" ? where are they going to get the money? I mean this budget is based on revenues estimated that are massively over-optimistic in the first place - revenue from general taxation is heading south massively at the moment and each factory that closes more revenue lost and more expenditure added in redundancy and social walfare payments.

Its too late to tax the rich - most of them aren't rich anymore - I would estimate that 70% of the "new wealth" in Ireland in the last 10 years was based on property valuations - paper valuations only - now its all debt - the repo companies are flooded, the stock markets worldwide are in the can, property developers are going bust at a rate of 2 a week and superlevy on the rich in regard to their assets will result in the capital flight on what little remains of any substance and we have a massive public sector in relation to 25 years ago - you mightn't see any similarities to the 80's - but give it time - we're only 10% into this downturn here.

I find the whole argument about patriotism and the need to pull together as nothing more than a cynical ploy by the economic-political establishment. We've seen the first instance of what shared shared sacrifice from the govt means. A very cynical appraisal would be:

- HFA (€1.65 allocation) - builder bail-out plan
- Cuts in healthcare and more importantly an attack on universality in health care to cement Harney's destruction of the public health care
- Increased private costs burdens on Education making it harder for low income to access third level education
- Increased TD pay even after their heroic call for a 10% temporary pay cut
- increased taxes borne by the lowest paid on a flat tax basis
- etc. etc etc.

Now, somebody'll come along and want to argue each point. Feel free. My point is how people perceive this budget was constructed and whom it impacted most. I really don't give a fig at this point about the interpretations of single budget line items.

On another and maybe more subtle level, there maybe another reason why the patriotism message is a harder sell by the govt these days. Many people who resisted, and indeed many who didn't, the siren call of the property ladder and the attendant propogandistic nature of the call via every VI in the country including the smiling govt cabinet ministers of the last five years just don't trust govt lead messages anymore. They've seen what can happen when people accept at face value such vague and unspecified calls by the establishment.

In order for calls to partiotism and a shared burden to be convincing and workable there has to be a foundation of trust. Trust is a very scarce commodity these days. The same people and organisations who lead us into the property bubble which has made life so much harder during this global downturn are still at the helm; and at the helm with no desire to begin to acknowledge their part in the property bubble. It's somebody elses fault. The only things that have changed over the last decade are that the govt now has a firmly established belief they can spin every issue in their favour. Oh yeah, and the Irish people now have a c. €400 billion liability hanging over their heads.

Edo wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

***Edo posted before

cactus flower wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

johnfás wrote:

New Red C poll shows a dramatic fall for Fianna Fáil. As it stands:

Fine Gael - 33
Fianna Fail - 26
Labour - 15
Sinn Fein - 10
Green Party - 6
Progressive Democrats - 2

Ah yes, the wild oscillations of the fickle and capricious Irish electorate. No use panicking now and looking for a saviour, hard times are ahead and FG won't teach us that - we'll have to learn it the hard way which might be better for us in the long run.

If the Greens walk, the Government would be untenable. Do you think that it is wild? Is it not a rational conclusion that the Government should be removed ?

Looking at that Poll, there are 35 points for the parties of the right (FG and the PDs), 32 for the centre right (FF and the Greens), 35 for the left (Labour and Sinn Fein). Or would the Greens count as left, which would make it 41 for the left? Are the Independents split between the three?
They had all better start working on their Programmes for Government.

I just read a scary post by Edo here who quotes in full a very well written Irish Times analysis piece about the mixed fortunes of the Irish electorate since the seventies and our tendency to compete rather than co-operate in times of national trouble. Edo is concluding that the 'nuclear option' would be a Govt. of FF and FG - is that possible ?

I tend to think of these things as being cultural and class-based systemic problems rather than something that can be sorted out by political parties in government with or against each other. Perhaps a good period of financial austerity might straighten people out - the Economic Research Institute of Hard Knocks.

It's interesting to see the protests happening and it would be great if people would demand, in a co-ordinated fashion, a bit of an upgrade to the current system - we're still running a non-GUI version of Govt. and it's time we got something a little bit more interactive. It's really time that people started realising that they can have something more interactive, something which would give everyone more responsibility.

When I see the protests I can't help getting youngdan's recent posts out of my head - rakes of people shouting "I want I want I want and I want it now".

Michael Hennigan made the point today that the Oireachtas just voted themselves another fat increase. They have it now. Ireland is one of the most unequal economies in the OECD, thanks to this Government. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/56/41494435.pdf

I can't be persuaded to see the most disadvantaged groups like Traveller children, children with disabilities, the sick elderly, as greedy young suckling at the sow. Our politicians are obscenely over-paid and that in itself makes them more and more remote from the electorate and hostile to the poor. A good part of the budget is aimed at supporting the construction sector with ill considered and wasteful public works and the evoting machines are still sittting there.

FF is the party of votes, and me fein. They appear completely swamped and overtaken by the extent of the crisis. I don't see any party that can deal with it to be honest with you. It is certainly not back to the 1980s and the politicians and journalists who keep saying it is are creating an illusion. There is a consensus growing between economists that its going to take massive public intervention in industry as well as credit supply to keep anything approaching a viable economy going. I don't see any signs that any of the parties see that.

Just one simple question CF - where are the Government going to get the money from all this state intervention in industry, keeping the unions sweet in the public sector where the ethos will be "we have what we hold" and all the other "worthy cases" ? where are they going to get the money?

This is not my idea Edo, its already being done elsewhere already. Ireland is one of the few EU countries that has not recapitalised its banks at this stage. There are other threads here that refer to injection of capital and credit to industries - Sarkozy is heading that up in Europe. States that can find the wherewithal are doing that, and those that can't are in the Iceland, Hungary, Argentina frame.

Where do you think this leaves us ?

Richard Bruton actually gave a pretty good list of savings and strategic spending in 2007 - I would have added a good few more cuts to it myself. Unfortunately, so far as I can remember, FG went into the election with promises of big spending increases based on a supposed 5% increase in GDP?

There are some no brainers for saving money, but what needs to be done in my view is to safeguard people's basic needs and try and hold on to the core items of a long term development strategy.

johnfás wrote:

Whatever about Fine Gael's leanings I am really not sure that an argument based on European Groupings, which are second order at best, are the best way to make it, cactus. On your reckoning surely they should be in with the fascists, where Fianna Fáil are.

Good point.