Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

cactus flower wrote:

500 million = 2,500 houses ? Nothing really. If it worked and gave people mortgages who wouldn't be eligible for a bank mortgage it would be wrong. Looks like a gimmic and the whole thinking of it is wrong and sub prime.

Its the last time young people should be buying. A lot of people are going to be losing their jobs.

That would be the point of my post.
It’s not sub prime, only people who would qualify for a bank loan under normal conditions will get these loans. It won’t sell a lot of houses but as most of these houses are already available at cost it will give people who can afford it a chance to get a house at a good price if that’s what they want to do.

Are you on the ball with the schism business, Cactus ? Are some of the FF left-wingers going to cook up a revolt ? (if only they could get over their anguish about the notion of godless communism)

http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/36336-time-ff-left-wing-revolt-new-party-if-necessary.html

Auditor #9 wrote:

Are you on the ball with the schism business, Cactus ? Are some of the FF left-wingers going to cook up a revolt ? (if only they could get over their anguish about the notion of godless communism)

http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/36336-time-ff-left-wing-revolt-new-party-if-necessary.html

Had a quick look back at the start of this thread in August to see how much, if at all, I was on the ball. Aside from the not very astounding feat of predicting the early demise of the PDs I said:

Quote :

FF's survival relies imo on a cross-class consensus and the appearance of strong leadership, along with the half-hearted nature of opposition. The consensus is likely to be undermined as the recession hits some parts of the population much harder than others. So its a probably No (to seeing out the term) from me.

The back benchers at the moment probably don't have a clue how serious the economic situation is (bar a few). They are hearing the voters while the cabinet is hearing IBEC, the ECB, the Bankers, the w's in Finance and to a limited extent the economists. Cabinet is making shapes trying to look like strong leadership, whilst acting like small boys who don't want to do their homework. Fianna Fail is the people, we are always told, so what happens when the people turn up in Kildare Street on Wednesday?

I read the poster on P.ie who was talking about a stately process to founding a new Clann na Poblachta in two years time. Do you think the post was for real? THe whole place could be a desert by then. In my mind anyone who is serious about providing some organisation and leadership will not be waiting a week, never mind two years.

This whole thing is going to end up a total fiasco if they don't get a grip of the situation. Whilst disagreeing with alot of the substantial parts of the budget, I cannot believe their naivity in the way they are dealing with this situation. They are saying the medical card thing may be revisited and this evening said that the 1% levy is going to be revisited for certain groups - they might as well say the whole thing is up for renegotiation at this stage.

tonys wrote:

I would think they needed to do something along the lines of the following...

Tonys, I think this is the best post you've ever written on MachineNation or P.ie.
Finally, you're giving us YOUR opinion rather than just defending the government. I can understand the urge to defend your party from unfair comment, we've all felt that from time to time I'm sure, but I suspect you have interesting things to say but don't get round to saying them.

tonys wrote:

Make it clear that the cash cow of the property market off which we have all lived for the last ten years is gone and not coming back any time soon

Bang on! The problem with this €200 property tax is that it doesn't apply to unsold houses. If it was me, I'd put a €20,000 per annum tax on unsold houses (providing you own more than 5). Feck it, make it €40,000! Anything to get developers dropping prices and getting unsold stock shifting. A short sharp economic lesson about supply and demand needs to be taught here.
I don't want to bankrupt the small dealers, so I'd exclude those guys with less than 5, but they'd be forced by the market to drop prices anyway.

tonys wrote:

In addition to reducing the HSE staff by 10,000 they should have announced a 5,000 reduction in the public service numbers for each of the next six years

Absolutly. Doesn't the national wage agreement which promised public servants 6% look momumentaly stupid now?

tonys wrote:

They should have increased corporate taxes, not by much but by 1% maybe, in the interests of visibly spreading the load if nothing else. They should also have reversed the VRT reductions on cars, not totally but to a large extent, nice idea but we can’t afford it right now.

Call me a PD, but I'd leave the corporate taxes. Don't rock that boat!
Call me a Green (since I am!) but I'd either leave VRT or abolish it and bring in a carbon tax. I don't buy this idea that John Gormley's tinkering has shut down the car market, (which SIMI are saying). Its the recession!

tonys wrote:

For future budgets I would have said we are looking at taxing child allowance for high earners and again made it clear the free ride is over and we have to be prepared to pay for the services we use or stop looking for the services.

Ok. At least that would be honest. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Trevor Sargant said before the GE that if health services were to improve tax would need to go up, and while that is simplistic in that it ignores the savings which can be made in the HSE, ultimately its true.

tonys wrote:

BTW I see nothing wrong with the loans for FTB’ers, it may help to clear 2,000 units, get some small builders out with their skin and repay something to the banks, if these lads go bust we are going to end up picking up the tab anyway, this way there may be no cost to the taxpayer, property pin protesters could go kiss my arse on this one.

I've yet to make up my mind on this one. I suspect that privately Tom Parlon is not as happy with the "bail out" as he makes out. On the other I firmly believe that the best thing for FTBs would be for property prices to fall fast and fall hard.

As Cactus Flower has said this is a lazy budget. I like Brian Lenihan, but this budget reflects poorly on him.

The budget was brought forward by six weeks and it shows. It was not thought out. Take for example the car parking charge. The minister in charge, John Gormley, seems to have no idea how it will be implemented. (Again this reflects poorly on him) The whole budget seems to have been prepared in this rushed half-thought out manner. With the result that, as JohnFas said, the entire budget now appears to be up for renegotiation!

What we need during this economic crisis is a bit of solid leadership. Instead we are getting fudges, backtracking and confusion.

Edo wrote:

Joe Behan - I hope the people see thru this populist slight of hand - if they

I agree Edo.
A Fianna Fail rep for 23 years and he quits the moment the going gets tough.

unaligned wrote:

Firstly, and I know the trolls on p.ie are busy beating this drum, I am firmly of the belief that the Greens will be absolutely decimated come the next election.

The US NeoCons with their deregulation mantra have destroyed the world economy. Fianna Fail's lazy reliance on the construction sector has wounded the Irish economy. And people will blame the Greens!

The annoying thing is it could happen.

I think it is certainly touch and go whether this Government can survive. Labour are continuing to go all out against the Greens to panic their supporters. Labour, who are experienced at collapsing governments from the inside, know all to well what panics the grassroots and the TDs. Saying that the Greens will back up the Government more than FF's back benchers is a cynical and effective way of panicking the Greens.

The real culprits though are the FF back benchers who are grandstanding against the Government. Their actions mean the Green backbenchers and Councillors also have to grandstand to save themselves from taking a disporortionate amount of blame for Government action and to keep the grass roots happy. When parties start to grandstand it takes on a momentum of its own. Meetings and senior people questioning Government policy, as they have no choice but to do in the face of FF backbench shenanigans, could lead to a change of heart in the Green grass roots in which case the leadership will have to walk.

If that happens then FF could be decimated at the next election, and if it is decimated it could quickly become a party in disarray. I think it is time for Brian Cowen to get very tough with his back benchers. Bertie was a man apart in some ways and a man not to be crossed in other ways. Cowen wil have to start showing a vindictive streak againt unruly colleagues if he is going to keep this show on the road.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

Labour, who are experienced at collapsing governments from the inside, know all to well what panics the grassroots and the TDs. Saying that the Greens will back up the Government more than FF's back benchers is a cynical and effective way of panicking the Greens.

Meanwhile, could FF be making eyes at Labour?
I'm overthinking it now!

eoinmn wrote:

unaligned wrote:

Firstly, and I know the trolls on p.ie are busy beating this drum, I am firmly of the belief that the Greens will be absolutely decimated come the next election.

The US NeoCons with their deregulation mantra have destroyed the world economy. Fianna Fail's lazy reliance on the construction sector has wounded the Irish economy. And people will blame the Greens!

The annoying thing is it could happen.

Like them or not there is a whiff of a coherent policy platform about the Greens and I think about some of the other small parties - SF and Labour. This just isn't there with the larger parties in any communicative way which is frustrating. I think it's important for the idea of security to come in a little more - job, education and price security for one and perhaps this is better delivered with a national leadership that has some sort of coherence in terms of a policy platform ? For the past while it seems to be feasting and famining - not good on the old security front.

And to answer eoin - why do you think FF is eyeing up Labour? I get this impression from body language on the television .. are they expecting a drop in their own numbers because of a potential schism?

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

If that happens then FF could be decimated at the next election, and if it is decimated it could quickly become a party in disarray. I think it is time for Brian Cowen to get very tough with his back benchers. Bertie was a man apart in some ways and a man not to be crossed in other ways. Cowen wil have to start showing a vindictive streak againt unruly colleagues if he is going to keep this show on the road.

God that's interesting - is he not barky enough towards his fellows? Strange that so strong and popular a party should have to be ruled by fear though.

Auditor #9 wrote:

And to answer eoin - why do you think FF is eyeing up Labour? I get this impression from body language on the television .. are they expecting a drop in their own numbers because of a potential schism?

TBH, I've nothing to base it on body language wise.
Just the numbers..
I think Finian McGrath has had enough. With less money splashing about, there is nothing in it for Lowry either.
If the Greens find they have to walk, Fianna Fail won't want an election. They'll do a deal with Labour.

I really don't think Labour will do a deal with FF though. I realise politics has to be pragmatic, but that would be a step too far for the Labour membership in the current climate, imo.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

I really don't think Labour will do a deal with FF though. I realise politics has to be pragmatic, but that would be a step too far for the Labour membership in the current climate, imo.

This is all very speculative of course but how would you feel if this were to happen ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

I really don't think Labour will do a deal with FF though. I realise politics has to be pragmatic, but that would be a step too far for the Labour membership in the current climate, imo.

This is all very speculative of course but how would you feel if this were to happen ?

I would post my membership card back to Ely Place cut in half.

Finian McGrath - are you mad?

The man is a political sheep who knows what side his bread is buttered on. We have heard of his 'disquiet' on umpteen occasions. He is like a pensioner about to take a bungee jump - not a chance.

eoinmn wrote:

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

Labour, who are experienced at collapsing governments from the inside, know all to well what panics the grassroots and the TDs. Saying that the Greens will back up the Government more than FF's back benchers is a cynical and effective way of panicking the Greens.

Meanwhile, could FF be making eyes at Labour?
I'm overthinking it now!

I don't think so. Labour and Fg want a general election for a number of reasons:
1. They want to strike a stake into the heart of FF who have become the natural party of Government. Now is their chance.
2. Labour know they will get more power from FG because they have more as many heavyweights politicians as FG.
3. Labour want to hurt the Greens and to hurt SF. In times of economic difficulty this may be possible.
4. FG don't want to go in with SF.
5. Labour don't want to go in with FF. FF rejected them and they rejected FF before and after the last election. They could work with the Greens if necessary.
6. Most importantly perhaps, FG and Labour would both be confident of doing better in a new election giving them a chance of 2 or 3 party Government.
7. FG will lacerate Labour if they get into bed with FF. The abuse the Greens are getting now won't be a patch on what Labour would get.


The only reason that Labour might possibly go in with FF would be if they thought that FG simply weren't up to the job. Perhaps if Cowen axed Micheal Martin, Mary Harney and a couple of others they would consider it.

eoinmn wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

And to answer eoin - why do you think FF is eyeing up Labour? I get this impression from body language on the television .. are they expecting a drop in their own numbers because of a potential schism?

TBH, I've nothing to base it on body language wise.
Just the numbers..
I think Finian McGrath has had enough. With less money splashing about, there is nothing in it for Lowry either.
If the Greens find they have to walk, Fianna Fail won't want an election. They'll do a deal with Labour.

I don't think Labour would do a deal. There would be resignations if they did.

On Finian McGrath, I have had enough of him.
I used to have respect for that man, but to me he is now the most despicable specimen in the Dail. I saw him on the news yesterday in what looked liked Louis Copeland dressed to the nines. He got in on the votes of people who are desperately deprived. He helped this Government form and has shored it up for the last disastrous year that has been squandered instead of getting on with the reforms that were needed. While a FF TD was resigning from the Party, he was having a chat with Mary Harney. That was going to get him a long way. He admitted he had not looked for pre-budget assurances. Now he is trying to cover his tracks. Another gombeen is born.

You are all right, Labour won't do a deal with FF.

For one thing, there's nothing FF could offer them.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

I really don't think Labour will do a deal with FF though. I realise politics has to be pragmatic, but that would be a step too far for the Labour membership in the current climate, imo.

This is all very speculative of course but how would you feel if this were to happen ?

I would post my membership card back to Ely Place cut in half.

There was a time that I think Labour should have stayed in government with FF. The idea of Labour in with a party of the right, FG, always seems to me inherently wrong. I thought that Dick Spring was totally wrong and irresponsible to pull the coalition the way he did, over what looked like personal pique. It was politically his last gasp. Spring imo was used by an external push against Reynolds moves on the north. Labour should have stayed in that government and fought tooth and nail against the right wing drift of FF, and left Government if and when there was a "line in the sand" on core poltical issues.

Now things are completely different. There is an FF government that carries responsibility for the state we're in now, and that is intransigeant in pushing a rich man's budget and bailout through. Labour still needs to be doing very serious thinking about FG - what would their emergency budget 2009 be ?

eoinmn wrote:

Tonys, I think this is the best post you've ever written on MachineNation or P.ie.
Finally, you're giving us YOUR opinion rather than just defending the government. I can understand the urge to defend your party from unfair comment, we've all felt that from time to time I'm sure, but I suspect you have interesting things to say but don't get round to saying them.

Needless to say that’s not how I see it. I don’t defend FF (I can hear the laughs), as I see it I attack the hypocrisy of those who attack FF simply because they are FF, all the while knowing full well that whatever party they themselves support has in the past either done something similar or worse or because at the moment they see FF as the “establishment” and so to be attacked at every hands turn, regardless of the issue.
The expression of that kind of largely unthinking received opinion gets my goat.

I come across lots of what I would consider to be reasonably fair and objective criticism of the Government on various issues and let it pass, I don’t join in because it doesn’t annoy me, I probably agree with it and I see no point in repeating something someone else has already said just to give the appearance of being objective. If I’m asked a direct question I answer as best I can regardless of how that reflects on FF.

Who knows, if I keep going, interesting things may very well just pop out.

eoinmn wrote:

Call me a Green (since I am!) but I'd either leave VRT or abolish it and bring in a carbon tax. I don't buy this idea that John Gormley's tinkering has shut down the car market, (which SIMI are saying). Its the recession!

It hasn’t killed the car market, but it has cost us a huge amount of tax revenue to no particular purpose.
For example a BMW 520 now costs almost 8,000 less (all vrt tax foregone) when anyone who was going to buy this or any similar car would have bought it anyway. We can’t afford this right now, by all means load the higher polluting cars but there was no need to reduce prices on other cars, particularly in the mid range where mostly company cars are involved.
My slogan for this new policy would be “feel the pain, we keep the gain” or “this is a swing with no roundabout” what’d you think?

eoinmn wrote:

I've yet to make up my mind on this one. I suspect that privately Tom Parlon is not as happy with the "bail out" as he makes out. On the other I firmly believe that the best thing for FTBs would be for property prices to fall fast and fall hard.

At the moment it doesn’t matter how far prices fall, for those FTB’ers who are able and want to buy no one will give them any money, that’s the issue this proposal is trying to address.

tonys wrote:

as I see it I attack the hypocrisy of those who attack FF simply because they are FF, all the while knowing full well that whatever party they themselves support has in the past either done something similar or worse

I can understand that.

tonys wrote:

It hasn’t killed the car market, but it has cost us a huge amount of tax revenue to no particular purpose.
For example a BMW 520 now costs almost 8,000 less (all vrt tax foregone) when anyone who was going to buy this or any similar car would have bought it anyway. We can’t afford this right now, by all means load the higher polluting cars but there was no need to reduce prices on other cars, particularly in the mid range where mostly company cars are involved.

You are kind of right.. 85% of cars sold under the new rules were in Band A, B or C.
But the original idea was to be revenue neutral, hence the price drops on lower emission cars.
If VRT was raised at 6% across the board in this Budget, I suppose that would have made sense. But raising the higher emission cars by 5% and lower by 6% (for example) would be unacceptable.

tonys wrote:

My slogan for this new policy would be “feel the pain, we keep the gain” or “this is a swing with no roundabout” what’d you think?

tonys wrote:

At the moment it doesn’t matter how far prices fall, for those FTB’ers who are able and want to buy no one will give them any money, that’s the issue this proposal is trying to address.

My feeling is that FTBs can get loans if they want them. But they don't want them right now. They are waiting.

FF councillor Billy Buckley has resigned from the party. (Newstalk)

eoinmn wrote:

tonys wrote:

At the moment it doesn’t matter how far prices fall, for those FTB’ers who are able and want to buy no one will give them any money, that’s the issue this proposal is trying to address.

My feeling is that FTBs can get loans if they want them. But they don't want them right now. They are waiting.

I'm not sure about this. You can't just produce a 10% or 15% deposit out of mid air. If you have a child or want to start a family and don't see yourself moving for a number of years then will probably take a chance that the market won't go much lower.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

eoinmn wrote:

tonys wrote:

At the moment it doesn’t matter how far prices fall, for those FTB’ers who are able and want to buy no one will give them any money, that’s the issue this proposal is trying to address.

My feeling is that FTBs can get loans if they want them. But they don't want them right now. They are waiting.

I'm not sure about this. You can't just produce a 10% or 15% deposit out of mid air.

No, you have to save for it.
Which is the way it should be.
100% mortgages were a scandal. They should never have been allowed.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

If you have a child or want to start a family and don't see yourself moving for a number of years then will probably take a chance that the market won't go much lower.

Or you might wait another year to see if house prices will come down another 10%, saving you a pot of money, and in the meantime add to your savings.