Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

tonys wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

What's a Twink phone message ?

There must have been a lot of vanity and hubris there in the upper echelons of Fianna Fail if they thought that this budget and the bail out was going to be lapped up willingly. It was the same with Lisbon. They don't seem to realise that people have changed, they won't just leave all their thinking to the Priest and Politician.

Tonys, did you like the budget?

No I didn’t like the budget, I wasn’t supposed to, it wasn‘t designed for liking, it was designed to right the ship. My opinion for what it’s worth is that the budget wasn’t tough enough, the targets were too wide spread and it lacked the necessary focus on future direction.

As for the rest of your post, I haven't come accross that attitude since "the quiet man".
I despair, I really do.

I don't despair, I think we are capable of better. Of course people know there has to be a painful budget, and we also have a good idea of the extent to which it is the responsibility of this government, and the people who share their political philosophy, that we are in this position. The issue is, what is the medium and long term strategy to dig ourselves out of this, and what is the short term approach to looking after our population to the best of our ability. The budget imo has failed on both counts. It is hugely galling that they have had at least a year of knowing that spending needed to be curtailed (they should have known not to escalate it five years ago) and have produced this half baked and mean ineffectual hotch potch. As George Lee pointed out, Government has budgeted to spend 1.5 billion in shares in this catastrophic market to put into the Pension Fund, that has lost billions already this year. There has been no reassessment of the NDP and the ridiculous Metro North project is being pushed on.

I have the impression we are dealing with lazy and confused people who went on their four months holiday and then came back and scrambled some old thing together with the civil servants. There is no sign of any strategy or any social responsibility. The Greens are as bad I think. They have had a year to think about this budget and they come up with the car parking fee, and admit that no-one thought about how it could be implemented.
Are they getting any competent economic advice, any of them? It appears all to be sucked out of their thumbs.

There must be people in Fianna Fail/Fianna Fail supporters who are horrified and could do a lot better than this.

At least Tonys staying with the ship and he is right. FF should bring in a budget 100 times as harsh. Cut every welfare program by 50%. Fire the entire army from top to bottom. Fire half the civil service and set up a new health system staffed by Indians. Phase out and fire every health care worker as soon as possible.

That would be a start.

All but maybe 20 might resign but good riddance. ff would get at least one TD in each constituency but sure that is all they will get anyway the way way things are going. Get rid of the rats that are fleeing the ship as things get tough.

youngdan wrote:

At least Tonys staying with the ship and he is right. FF should bring in a budget 100 times as harsh. Cut every welfare program by 50%. Fire the entire army from top to bottom. Fire half the civil service and set up a new health system staffed by Indians. Phase out and fire every health care worker as soon as possible.

That would be a start.

All but maybe 20 might resign but good riddance. ff would get at least one TD in each constituency but sure that is all they will get anyway the way way things are going. Get rid of the rats that are fleeing the ship as things get tough.

This is all a really good idea youngdan. Lets just roll over and cut our own throats, so long as the billionaire class are fine.

You don't get it. There is no money. The country is broke and most of these so called billionaires are broke as well. 6 months ago everyone was chirping about a global marketplace and how Ireland was the highest income on Earth. Why global warming is not even a concern anymore.

Don't look to the rich to pay as they have no money. The Irish will be begging to vote for Lisbon just like I predicted. They can be bought with money printed up out of thin air. Thank goodness Michael Collins or Robert Emmet is not alive to see this countryfull of jellyfish.

Joe Behan - Fuck him - slimy cowardly shite and a total tool and I hope the people see thru this populist slight of hand - if they dont - well dont blame the rest of us for the Wickla jokes regarding sheep, men, and the wherebouts of their brain cells.

Absolutely pathetic - buts thats Fianna Fail backbenchers for ya - as much backbone as your average amphibian - and thats a serious disservice to frogs!

youngdan wrote:

You don't get it. There is no money. The country is broke and most of these so called billionaires are broke as well. 6 months ago everyone was chirping about a global marketplace and how Ireland was the highest income on Earth. Why global warming is not even a concern anymore.

Don't look to the rich to pay as they have no money. The Irish will be begging to vote for Lisbon just like I predicted. They can be bought with money printed up out of thin air. Thank goodness Michael Collins or Robert Emmet is not alive to see this countryfull of jellyfish.

Stop striking poses youngdan. I know the position of the Irish economy and the rest of the world economy well enough. "There is no money" does not begin to describe it. There is a tsunami of debt and shrinking production. There is an enormous crisis of the world economy that has been predictable since 1971 and much further back and the homegrown Irish version that has been visibly rolling down the tracks in Ireland for the last 5 years.

This thing has been taped back together so many times, even if they were able to hold it together again it would be for a very short while. This time the political and economic hegemony in the US is cracking up and the role of the dollar as a backer of currencies will be gone soon. What do you think this new Bretton Woods is going to be for?

We should expect every kind of desperate and anti-democratic measure to try to hold things together and to convince people they are powerless to protect themselves and their families. The ultra-rich must pay, but the issue is not financial, its an issue of power and control. The billionare rich, like the political parties that represent them and all the apparatus that supports them, have enormous power over us and how this thing is being managed.

It must be becoming evident at this stage that an economic system designed to pass vast amounts of capital into a tiny number of hands is disastrous and morally untenable. In the US they are throwing thousands of people out of their homes after mis-selling them mortgages. In the UK, as Aragon has pointed out, the "nationalised" Northern Rock is doing the same. We are moving into mass unemployment globally, very, very, quickly. If people want to keep a roof over their heads, eat and work, they are not going to be helped by any of the existing political parties. I would put more faith in the GAA, and even they took the shilling in the last year.

Global warming will not go away because we have troubles. Don't you see the wildfires, hurricanes and floods on the news? The recession is going to cut emissions faster than any amount of european directives, but climate change will still have to be dealt with. Climate change is much bigger for our species even than the crack up of an economic system that has lasted for hundreds of years.

The fix up you are proposing to keep the thing going with, with zero public services and a gold backed currency, would be so devastatingly deflationary and destructive that it could only be imposed by force and by addling people's brains with nonsensical conspiracy theories. The US army is being brought home from Iraq and trained to use tazers, so whatever they are planning is not nice and is not for the purpose of looking after the well-being of the ordinary citizen. That would emerge very quickly if your sacked health workers and teachers tried demonstrating.

So the choices in my view are to go your road of trying to go back to ways of managing society that failed two hundred years ago, or look ahead to the enormous technical, scientific and human resources we have, and try to use them to give our population a decent life. That will mean very big change in how our economy and society is organised and a few people are going to have to give up a lot of power.

A gold backed currency never failed. It is the present system that has failed. The most important thing to do is forget about this global warming. Right where you are sitting was covered in ice a few thousand years ago so has the world got colder since.


I told you 6 months ago the economy was going to be crushed and the

middle class eliminated and you didn't believe me.

If you think Cowen cares about anyone but himself and his masters in Europe, well watch and learn.

youngdan wrote:

A gold backed currency never failed. It is the present system that has failed. The most important thing to do is forget about this global warming. Right where you are sitting was covered in ice a few thousand years ago so has the world got colder since.


I told you 6 months ago the economy was going to be crushed and the middle class eliminated and you didn't believe me.

If you think Cowen cares about anyone but himself and his masters in Europe, well watch and learn.

Nonsense youngdan. Six months ago the economy was already in the siucra and I told you to start planting vegetables. The economy was not crushed, it imploded. I've brought George along to tell you how it is, but you have to turn on the subtitles to get the message. Press the little button on the bottom right of George's screen.

Part One



Part Two

Don't worry about the US. Dwell on the Irish situation

I was just coming along to stir the siúcra big time but suddenly I'm not in the humour and anyway I tend to disagree with all approaches being mooted.

First of all, let me give a BIG thumbs up to the Pin . Our so-called native mainstream media have been simply atrocious and wholely biased in their reporting on the economy - almost to the point of criminal negligence. (Meyers's article yesterday is just another example and Aaragon has a good site reference to other mendacious media coverage.) One may not agree with everything written on the Pin, as is only right from a thinking adult, but they have been a source of news and views that balance out the thinly veiled propoganda of the mainstream media.

SF has always been a proponent of small business but their message is lost in other rhetorical policies. My point. Even supposed left wing radicals realise that a vibrant economy is the important to a well functioning society. However, where is it written that because someone has the ability to make money that they are special? They are no more special than parents who rear a well educated and morally grounded family. The reward for an entrepenuer for their efforts are a higher standard of living and that's it. There has to be a balance. Shoving wage earners into the min wage/debt spiral with no entitlements and ability to plan for a reasonable future will not work. There's been talk about what people are entitled to or should expect as a natural right. Argue all you want. If enough people are made hungry and homeless all the new laws to control people won't work. It hasn't worked in the past and it won't work in the future.

Stop with all the conspiracy crap already! Yeah, there are cohorts of wealthy and powerful people who are manipulating every system on earth in order to advance and maintain their status. You need a conspiracy theory to deduce this? The question is are ordinary people going to wake up or are they so cow-towed by the supposed complexities of finance and economics that they won't organise until there is enough people in dire poverty to make substantive change a requirement for survival. Given what's occuring (privatisation of wealth and socialisation of costs) I'm betting on the latter. It's my sincere belieft that at the very top, they don't have a clue about the long term affects of their policies.

And to the point of this thread. Although in my own warped way I think the point of my rant above is germaine to the thread.

Some FF politico quit the party. It may be more important this time because he quit on conscience grounds unlike previous members who quit because of power or scandal. If he returns to the fold rather quickly, it was just a stunt imo.

However, the basis of the row is what is important. The medical card shadow boxing can't be examined in isolation. There is another important bit of legislation pending as well that will make it legal for "retirement" home owners to seize 80% of incapacitated old folks income and 10 or 15% of their assets. Harney had legisalation before the election that would have allowed them to seize something like 80% of assets! When I question this on another site, a PD supporter said this law would be good because it would stop greedy children from getting their hands on their parents money and assets.

Meanwhile, back at the farm, one of the biggest budget items not being discussed by the mainstream media is the €1.65 billion the government can find to become a de facto banker and lend to people who can't afford to go to banks to buy brand, spanking new homes. The govt assures us this will not impact home prices (keep them higher) and won't help the developers.

And the big thing some people have to worry about is a possible rise of the left. Forget about the left. It's the ordinary wage earner that people have to fret about. One day they're going to wake up and smell the coffee. One day promises aren't going to be good enough.

FF has been the de facto government of the state for 50 years. Does anyone think one defection will make a difference or that anything will change in the next four years? I don't.

Over on the Pin there's a thread written by somebody called Ladhe.

He a Hedge-fund manager who's winding up his fund and has written a goodbye letter. Quite revealing! Five star stuff.

rockyracoon wrote:

Over on the Pin there's a thread written by somebody called Ladhe.

He a Hedge-fund manager who's winding up his fund and has written a goodbye letter. Quite revealing! Five star stuff.

I'm heading over to have a look.

My main worry would be if the Left don't rise. Agree with everything else.

rockyracoon wrote:

Over on the Pin there's a thread written by somebody called Ladhe.

He a Hedge-fund manager who's winding up his fund and has written a goodbye letter. Quite revealing! Five star stuff.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=14658

Link above.

Compared with the "Aristocracy" of Wall Street that he gripes about he was a relatively small player. He thinks he has robbed the hereditary rich and powerful, but the people hurting are people losing their jobs and homes. At the end of the day, he played the system that was there and has retired to smoke marijuana.

"He also suggested that billionaire George Soros sponsor a forum in which ``great minds'' would come together to create a new system of government, as the current system ``is clearly broken.''

Shall we invite them over here

Classic, rockyracoon. Your man was a Hemp-Fund manager all along.

The government will stumble on but it is going to be a very difficult 12-18 months for the unhappy troika of Coughlan, Lenihan and Cowen. If the backbenchers think this budget was difficult, one can only imagine their reaction to the one (or possibly two) next year. We are undoubtedly in a period of political realignment in this country. Not because an alternative government is about to get swept into power, but because the decade of consensus politics (1997-2007) is over. I don't see any way that FF will be able to get the next few budgets through the Dail so we might as well get used to 'revolts' and upheavals.

Politically, there are a few interesting things to note from the last few months. Firstly, and I know the trolls on p.ie are busy beating this drum, I am firmly of the belief that the Greens will be absolutely decimated come the next election. I could easily forsee a situation where Ryan is the only one who will hold his seat. There is an opportunity for a reorganised and revitalised Labour Party (for which there is conflicting evidence) to take advantage of this and to recapture that vote.

I also think that the last twelve months has been a career ending experience for Mary Coughlan. She is our very own Sarah Palin. She appears to be shockingly out of her depth and she is certainly the weakest link in the ruling troika. Dermot Ahern is not a politician that I have a huge amount of time for but he would be an infinitely more desirable candidate for enterprise and employment.

I don't believe that the government can possibly see out a five year term. The independents will shortly start to drop like flies and those greens of a sandal wearing persuasion will not hold their nerve. I would be surprised if the government sticks it out for another 18 months.

Surely Mary "unfortunately our old people are living linger" Hanafin is gone too?

I have no doubt that a Fine Gael government would be as disastrous in that - if the past is anything to go by, they would try and dig out of this by digging deeper. They didn't put up an alternative to FF in 2007 so why should we think they can do it now?

Why did Labour do badly in the last Poll? They ought to be bouncing?

youngdan wrote:

Don't worry about the US. Dwell on the Irish situation

Your the first person I've heard say that for a very long time.

Rough stuff on the Greens there, unaligned - I don't know how solid each of their seats are but the latest polls suggested they had buoyant support; I'd go along with you on the currents I'm getting at present though.

I'd predict Sinn Fein could get somewhere in a sudden election but the swing might more likely go to Labour whose politicians are looking a lot more stately in the Dáil lately. And I thought it interesting how Brian Cowen was speaking to Ruairi Quinn about details of the tax increases the other day - these lads talk to each other in private I'd swear I saw similar kinds of looks between Willie O'Dea and Eamon Ryan before the last GE.

I'd imagine a FG government might get in if this govt falls but it'll be to their ruin for the reasons that cactus says. Another Dáil detail from the other day was that while SF were speaking the house was empty; this is very bad form I thought and shows the power-hungriness of the other opposition parties. Fair enough they wanted to scrutinise the budget but I simply thought it was a bit of an insult to the House.

Kate P wrote:

Quote :

No I didn’t like the budget, I wasn’t supposed to, it wasn‘t designed for liking, it was designed to right the ship. My opinion for what it’s worth is that the budget wasn’t tough enough, the targets were too wide spread and it lacked the necessary focus on future direction.

Are you suggesting that it lacks the focus to right the ship? And where would you have narrowed in on specific targets?

I would think they needed to do something along the lines of the following;

Make it clear that the cash cow of the property market off which we have all lived for the last ten years is gone and not coming back any time soon, the free ride is over and it was now time to start basing the size & extent of our public services on personal and profit tax earnings.

In addition to reducing the HSE staff by 10,000 they should have announced a 5,000 reduction in the public service numbers for each of the next six years, retirements would take care of this, raise the 20% personal tax rate to 21%, the 41% rate to 43% and introduce a new 50% rate to apply to all earnings over 80,000. They should also have said that these changes were based on an assumed rate of economic activity and if this rate were not achieved in the next six months the personal tax rates would raise again. They were right to bring in a temporary income levy, but should have excluded those earning the minimum wage and made it 1.5% over 50,000 & 2% over 80,000. The Medical card issue was very badly handled, but should be attacked from the doctors deal end.

They should have increased corporate taxes, not by much but by 1% maybe, in the interests of visibly spreading the load if nothing else. They should also have reversed the VRT reductions on cars, not totally but to a large extent, nice idea but we can’t afford it right now.

For future budgets I would have said we are looking at taxing child allowance for high earners and again made it clear the free ride is over and we have to be prepared to pay for the services we use or stop looking for the services.

BTW I see nothing wrong with the loans for FTB’ers, it may help to clear 2,000 units, get some small builders out with their skin and repay something to the banks, if these lads go bust we are going to end up picking up the tab anyway, this way there may be no cost to the taxpayer, property pin protesters could go kiss my arse on this one.

tonys wrote:

Kate P wrote:

Quote :

No I didn’t like the budget, I wasn’t supposed to, it wasn‘t designed for liking, it was designed to right the ship. My opinion for what it’s worth is that the budget wasn’t tough enough, the targets were too wide spread and it lacked the necessary focus on future direction.

Are you suggesting that it lacks the focus to right the ship? And where would you have narrowed in on specific targets?

I would think they needed to do something along the lines of the following;

Make it clear that the cash cow of the property market off which we have all lived for the last ten years is gone and not coming back any time soon, the free ride is over and it was now time to start basing the size & extent of our public services on personal and profit tax earnings.

In addition to reducing the HSE staff by 10,000 they should have announced a 5,000 reduction in the public service numbers for each of the next six years, retirements would take care of this, raise the 20% personal tax rate to 21%, the 41% rate to 43% and introduce a new 50% rate to apply to all earnings over 80,000. They should also have said that these changes were based on an assumed rate of economic activity and if this rate were not achieved in the next six months the personal tax rates would raise again. They were right to bring in a temporary income levy, but should have excluded those earning the minimum wage and made it 1.5% over 50,000 & 2% over 80,000. The Medical card issue was very badly handled, but should be attacked from the doctors deal end.

They should have increased corporate taxes, not by much but by 1% maybe, in the interests of visibly spreading the load if nothing else. They should also have reversed the VRT reductions on cars, not totally but to a large extent, nice idea but we can’t afford it right now.

For future budgets I would have said we are looking at taxing child allowance for high earners and again made it clear the free ride is over and we have to be prepared to pay for the services we use or stop looking for the services.

BTW I see nothing wrong with the loans for FTB’ers, it may help to clear 2,000 units, get some small builders out with their skin and repay something to the banks, if these lads go bust we are going to end up picking up the tab anyway, this way there may be no cost to the taxpayer, property pin protesters could go kiss my arse on this one.

This is a very interesting post Tonys, not that I am agreeing with your budget or politics, but because it shows up the extent to which the Government's choices were avoidable, even within their own presumed political parameters. Your proposals are more rational and more fair than the Governments, and I'm assuming that it didn't take you longer than 15 minutes to come up with them (even allowing for the benefit of hind sight).

What an inditement of the Government and of the Independents and Greens who voted with them.

Just on two other points - reliance on a property bubble for a tax base for ongoing current expenditure that funds public services was always irrational. The fact that this tax base is gone is no reason in itself for cutting public services. On increase of corporate taxes we are between a rock and a hard place. We are now in competition with EU states with lower costs, equivalent infrastructure and lower or zero Corporation Tax. FDI is already leaving and we are horrifyingly overdependent on it. A cut might be more to the point and might result in a slower decline in FDI tax take.

Government still seems to be in denial and hoping this whole thing will go away and let them leave their public service voters in situ. The reality will be another budget within 6 months, probably with much deeper cuts being looked for. What might have been done is a budget with a long term strategy for restructuring and for developing our economy based on our strengths, while at the same time every effort is made to stop vulnerable people falling into poverty.

What we got is a budget that put a 10 euro levy on flights, with an exemption for private jets, planes and helicopers. Doesn't that say it all?

***cactus posted before this

I'd agree with you on most of that stuff tonys - particularly the public service contraction. Taxing people at 50% over 80k might result in drying up business so what they've done with the levy was right and that could be increased next year to 3% over 100k - the main point being that it is dependent on prosperity and should be lobbied against if things pick up.

Good point about raising the Corpo Tax - again a little glimmer of SF policies around the time of the GE before they got the willies at their own policies.

The crucial thing is for the country to know what the hell is going to be done with any savings and is there a plan at all? THIS IS IMPORTANT. Personally I favour investment in Green projects and Education as well as infrastructure so that there is a system here that is healthy when there is a restoration again in a few years, maybe a decade. The budget gave some breaks for science and tech research but again the question is will this be focused?

When the whole thing has collapsed, which I'm sure it will have soon, we will have to address the issue of channelling the wealth and resources which we possess and sorting out who owes how much to where, who and why. Education has been a big one and don't let that stop but do it right - use the ratemyteacher feedback scheme; teachers not performing, out. Broaden the vocational skills base too by coupling the VECs with Fás.

Energy again is the next big one - getting foreign imports off our backs would be great for the balance of payments and very attractive to industry wanting to set up here. We should go for nothing less than 100% self sufficiency within 20 years. If we don't make it, trying will generate huge activity. We have unparalleled wave, wind and (potential) wood resources and combined with solar power this country could breeze it in terms of energy independence. We have to strive for it though, we have to.

So your quangos should be busted apart and new ones established with very clear aims - install a smart meter in every house by end 2010; re-shape Coillte in terms of self-sufficiency primarily with as much emphasis as is needed for export markets which would have as a by-product some national park area to eventually aid a presently crippled tourist industry.

Government needs to take the infrastructural bull by the horns and let as much of it be privately-owned as is possible or acceptable. We should aim to sort out our water system which is a shambles.

Providing a fund of 1.6 billion for FTBs is a total shame. The country owns the banks let them create mortgages with exotic interest rates (3% or less) and let people avail of those mortgages in a regulated fashion. Initially this would apply to second-hand homes and renovations but could be broadened out to rental apartments and new builds where they are needed most - in the cities. This would generate quite a bit of industry if some regulations and GREEN standards were to be applied - for example, outlaw new builds which don't plumb their homes with the capacity to use roof run-off in toilets, external taps and showers for example. Apply this to commercial properties also. Rain we have plenty of and we should be using it - providing a 1.6 billion fund for FTBs is flushing it down the drain - you'll only end up with a nation of paupers in 5 years time. MABS could be very busy in the near future - pity they don't float on the stock market, I'd be in there buying shares like a shot.

Edo wrote:

Joe Behan - Fuck him - slimy cowardly shite and a total tool and I hope the people see thru this populist slight of hand - if they dont - well dont blame the rest of us for the Wickla jokes regarding sheep, men, and the wherebouts of their brain cells.

Absolutely pathetic - buts thats Fianna Fail backbenchers for ya - as much backbone as your average amphibian - and thats a serious disservice to frogs!

Strong words, Edo.

It seems clear that he jumped without discussing the matter with the Taoiseach, certainly according to the Taoiseach on today's News at One. Is anyone surprised that Finian McGrath was next? Mary O'Rourke - who couldn't praise her nephew enough in advance of the budget is now rolling back on her support. As are a host of TDs who clearly supported it last Tuesday. Knee jerking is the FF sport of choice, it would seem.

Kate P wrote:

Edo wrote:

Joe Behan - Fuck him - slimy cowardly shite and a total tool and I hope the people see thru this populist slight of hand - if they dont - well dont blame the rest of us for the Wickla jokes regarding sheep, men, and the wherebouts of their brain cells.

Absolutely pathetic - buts thats Fianna Fail backbenchers for ya - as much backbone as your average amphibian - and thats a serious disservice to frogs!

Strong words, Edo.

It seems clear that he jumped without discussing the matter with the Taoiseach, certainly according to the Taoiseach on today's News at One. Is anyone surprised that Finian McGrath was next? Mary O'Rourke - who couldn't praise her nephew enough in advance of the budget is now rolling back on her support. As are a host of TDs who clearly supported it last Tuesday. Knee jerking is the FF sport of choice, it would seem.

I'm surprised at that. I'm sure I heard Joe Behan say he had discussed it with Brian Cowen (Friday, RTE radio). I share Edo's lack of patience for the shadowmen of FF who slip in and out of the Party with impunity to keep the local vote. Having heard Behan, this seems different, and only time will tell.
How can Finian McGrath look his constituents in the face, having supported that budget?

Kate P: any thoughts on the farm side of it?

Auditor #9 wrote:

***cactus posted before this

Providing a fund of 1.6 billion for FTBs is a total shame.

It’s only 500 million for FTB’ers, in loans given at normal rates under normal bank rules if the banks had the cash, there really is nothing wrong with this plan. The 1.6 Billion is for social & affordable in a different scheme

500 million = 2,500 houses ? Nothing really. If it worked and gave people mortgages who wouldn't be eligible for a bank mortgage it would be wrong. Looks like a gimmic and the whole thinking of it is wrong and sub prime.

Its the last time young people should be buying. A lot of people are going to be losing their jobs.