Your Ten Predictions for 2009 - a Challenge from Youngdan

This thread is at youngdan's suggestion.

Quote :

Actually I am looking forward to A-T's predictions for 2009. He got the call wrong on the markets because he was too optimistic. That is not the same as not having a good knowledge and a good interest in the economic front.

He refuses to talk on a subject he knows and likes but sticks his snout in on things he knows nothing about.

Time for 10 predictions from everybody and it will be a good thread I figure.

How many of us would have, or did, get ten predictions for 2008 right, I wonder? I'm going to give time to some thought before posting my predictions for 2009.

The fun thread of the year, I will make mine tonight. Of my 10 I expect at least 12 to come true

I have noticed that very few are willing to ever admit to being wrong about anything. Of the 50 regular posters here it would not surprise me if few took the challenge. Most have no self confidence.

1. Obama will be a spectacular failure. He will be seen even before day one as a mental lightweight. He is just not up to the job and everyone will be laughing at his stuttering.

2. The Irish economy will totally collapse and this will lead to other predictions.

3. The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.

4. Reality will set in and everyone will accept that the welfare state is over. Anyone who mentions free health care will be looked upon as a dingbat. You will see all forms of dole reduced to subsistance. You will see huge layoffs in the civil service and the army begin to be reduced.

5. The government will lose their majority very soon, in weeks,

6. Cowen will get tossed

7 The dollar and the Euro will both get whacked. Interest rates will rise sharply and a currency crisis will ensue

8. Both gold and oil will rise sharply from here. Oil at 35 dollarsa few days ago was likely the low even as the economy falls into a deoression

9. Riots similiar to Greece will spread to Spain Italy France Britain Holland Belgium and maybe Ireland

10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt

BONUS: If there are smart FF TDs I expect this. They will break from FF and demand that FG join them in a national government. It will be to save their own skins but a smart move nonetheless. FG are snookered if given power and would only last a short time. FG as a party should avoid an election but Kenny only cares about himself. If there is an election smart FG TD's would do well to jump ship and as a new combined party grab 5 years in power and blame everything on FF/FG

1. Obama will fail but will hang around for a good while cajoling people to remain calm.

2. There will a mini-budget by the end of February.

3. This will inevitably lead to the government collapsing.

4. There will be massive protests in Britain which will lead to rioting.

5. There will be more and more shocking revelations about CEOs of state agencies.

6. Australia will bring in measures to slow down the immigration of misguided Irish heading over there for work that does not exist.

7. Suicide is going to go through the roof.

8. As will general violence.

9. The public servants will cripple the country with work stoppages.

10. Lisbon 2 will fail and Ireland will be punished severely.

I think things will worsen economically and politically but not to the extent of the doomsday youngdan foresees above.

1. House prices will continue to fall and unemployment to rise to 9%-10% at year end and something similar in America.

2. Oil and other commodities will be depressed for another while before they start to rise again. Maybe 6-9 months. Oil will go to around €70 then.

3. This Government will stay next year but even more cutbacks will be needed, especially salaries. The return of butter vouchers.

4. California will need a bailout in the Spring there will be EU Commission talk of special fines for Ireland's 20 billion budget deficit.

5. Lisbon II will go through

6. Prominent rioting in other countries besides Greece and Iceland. Banks and regulators will be targeted.

7. The US Dollar will drop in value. The USDX will be snaking around 50-60. American property and goods will be firesaled wholesale to rich overseas investors. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_dx

8. Major strikes here by unions when paycuts are more and more strongly suggested.

9. The ISEQ will be depressed just above 2000 all year but will recover up above 2500 by end of year.

10. Gold won't go to the 2000 dollars but will stay just above 1000 - ~1200 max.

youngdan wrote:

10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt

That's not much of a prediction! Eurosceptic on P.ie makes those calls around once every two days. And many of the other No to Lisbon supporters would like to make those calls but haven't either the courage or the honesty to do so...

1. The two brothers shall drink blood and wander blind the earth for forty days. When Orion leaves one brother shall be slain and his body shall be burnt in the temple...

Seriously though.

1. Different scandals within the Gardaí shall combine with a major new one to lead tens of thousands onto the streets calling for sackings, jailings and a complete restructuring of the force.

2. Events in Mayo will come to a head and the various parties will be forced to the table for authentic talks.

3. Limerick will be the beginning of what is a meltdown in both employment and retail trade that will quickly spread to the rest of the country.

4. There will be riots on the streets of Dublin and they may well spread to other counties.

5. There will be a major banking scandal linked intimately with the legal profession. Again there will be much calling for heads to roll.

6. The small spat that is the current FÁS scandal will soon be forgotten as the real FÁS scandal comes to light and outrages the majority, many heads shall roll including some fat heads in the Dáil.

7. The farmers are going to go bugshit when a reduction in or stoppages of various subsidies and grants is announced.

8. The minister for education will be publically crucified when the government tries to impose and collect water charges from schools. Should the government be stupid enough to announce the general introduction of water charges for everyone (in 2010) before this event, there will be many thieves crucified on either side of the minister for education.

9. There will be an attempt to privatise the ESB.

10. The GPO will be the scene of another great battle when the announcement is made that it is to be part of a new commercial development along with Moore St.

youngdan wrote:

I have noticed that very few are willing to ever admit to being wrong about anything. Of the 50 regular posters here it would not surprise me if few took the challenge. Most have no self confidence.

1. Obama will be a spectacular failure. He will be seen even before day one as a mental lightweight. He is just not up to the job and everyone will be laughing at his stuttering.

2. The Irish economy will totally collapse and this will lead to other predictions.

3. The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.

4. Reality will set in and everyone will accept that the welfare state is over. Anyone who mentions free health care will be looked upon as a dingbat. You will see all forms of dole reduced to subsistance. You will see huge layoffs in the civil service and the army begin to be reduced.

5. The government will lose their majority very soon, in weeks,

6. Cowen will get tossed

7 The dollar and the Euro will both get whacked. Interest rates will rise sharply and a currency crisis will ensue

8. Both gold and oil will rise sharply from here. Oil at 35 dollars a few days ago was likely the low even as the economy falls into a deoression

9. Riots similiar to Greece will spread to Spain Italy France Britain Holland Belgium and maybe Ireland

10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt

BONUS: If there are smart FF TDs I expect this. They will break from FF and demand that FG join them in a national government. It will be to save their own skins but a smart move nonetheless. FG are snookered if given power and would only last a short time. FG as a party should avoid an election but Kenny only cares about himself. If there is an election smart FG TD's would do well to jump ship and as a new combined party grab 5 years in power and blame everything on FF/FG

You could give Nostradamus a good run for his money youngdan, but credit to you for going first, and also for your good call on the ISEQ this year. I see Paulson's fund made 450 million by last August betting on the end of subprime - if you had been betting on the fall of the ISEQ you would be a made man.

My first prediction is that you will want to revise your predictions by February, as a good few of them are already underway already, and there will be no fun for the next year without a bit of uncertainty. There were a few easy ones - Obama's inflicting pain on the voters: he flagged that himself in his inauguration speech - the collapse of Irish economy is ongoing - public spending cuts: they have started and Government has warned there is much more to come - the dollar is already being whacked, gold and oil are rising.

I see you are predicting a loss of Government majority, and an end to Cowen as Taoiseach, but no call on the result of an election? Riots go without saying, but may be old hat after a few months as people get more organised and riots are seen to be futile.

Its good to see a prediction with a number in it - a drop of over 20 billion in tax revenues may be close enough to the mark.

But no predictions on the banks or on trading, why is that ?

I'm holding my fire with my own ten: my predictions will be there for the year, so I will give myself a full day to think about them.

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

youngdan wrote:

I have noticed that very few are willing to ever admit to being wrong about anything. Of the 50 regular posters here it would not surprise me if few took the challenge. Most have no self confidence.

1. Obama will be a spectacular failure. He will be seen even before day one as a mental lightweight. He is just not up to the job and everyone will be laughing at his stuttering.

2. The Irish economy will totally collapse and this will lead to other predictions.

3. The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.

4. Reality will set in and everyone will accept that the welfare state is over. Anyone who mentions free health care will be looked upon as a dingbat. You will see all forms of dole reduced to subsistance. You will see huge layoffs in the civil service and the army begin to be reduced.

5. The government will lose their majority very soon, in weeks,

6. Cowen will get tossed

7 The dollar and the Euro will both get whacked. Interest rates will rise sharply and a currency crisis will ensue

8. Both gold and oil will rise sharply from here. Oil at 35 dollarsa few days ago was likely the low even as the economy falls into a deoression

9. Riots similiar to Greece will spread to Spain Italy France Britain Holland Belgium and maybe Ireland

10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt

BONUS: If there are smart FF TDs I expect this. They will break from FF and demand that FG join them in a national government. It will be to save their own skins but a smart move nonetheless. FG are snookered if given power and would only last a short time. FG as a party should avoid an election but Kenny only cares about himself. If there is an election smart FG TD's would do well to jump ship and as a new combined party grab 5 years in power and blame everything on FF/FG

who cares ya libertarian freak!

but I'll save your list and throw it back in your face this time next year - how do you like your eggs done BTW?

My top Ten predictions for 2009.

1. We will moan and groan for the entire year.

2. There will be no change in government in 2009.

3. There will be tax increases in 2009.

4. We will qualify for the World Cup by beating georgia, Bulgaria AND Italy.

5. The incinerator in Ringsend will go ahead.

6. Metro North will not go ahead.

7. Governement in Belfast will run smooth as a baby's bum.

8. I WILL have cracked Spanish by December 2009.

9. I will NOT get sunburnt living in Spain.

10. Lisbon Two will get voted in.

Apart from 10, I reckon they are safe bets.

Johnny Keogh wrote:

My top Ten predictions for 2009.

1. We will moan and groan for the entire year.

2. There will be no change in government in 2009.

3. There will be tax increases in 2009.

4. We will qualify for the World Cup by beating georgia, Bulgaria AND Italy.

5. The incinerator in Ringsend will go ahead.

6. Metro North will not go ahead.

7. Governement in Belfast will run smooth as a baby's bum.

8. I WILL have cracked Spanish by December 2009.

9. I will NOT get sunburnt living in Spain.

10. Lisbon Two will get voted in.

Apart from 10, I reckon they are safe bets.

Nice list Johnny, except numbers one and six cancel each other out for me. The day it is cancelled I won't be moaning.

1. The government will have to have another budget by May.

2. The government will fall by early October and Ireland will go to the polls in November. A Fine Gael-Labour government will be appointed in December 2009. The two remaining Green TDs will support the government and one may be in cabinet. Enda Kenny will become taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore will become tanaiste. Fianna Fáil will achieve the lowest percentage total at the election in history, with one-third of cabinet ministers losing their seats.

3. Barack Obama's performance in the first year will earn plaudits and achieve the highest popularity ratings in history.

4. A British general election will be called in June and a hung parliament will result.

5. Lisbon will occur in October and will be passed.

6. Pope Benedict will have a serious health upset later in the year, possibly another stroke.

7. If still in power Gordon Brown will announce in the last third of the year that it is imperative that the United Kingdom join the Euro, which will have established itself as the dominant international currency.

8. The new European Commission, delayed in appointment in November, will assume office in December.

9. Lisbon will come into force by the end of November 2009/beginning December, with the new commission formed under Lisbon.

10. President Barroso will be re-appointed commission president.

Is that not a friendly greeting from Edo. I like my eggs scrambled thank you very much.

Why don't you do some campaigning for Lisban 3 to make yourself usefull now that you have plenty of free time.

Everyone else are making predictions, what are you lacking, balls or brains or both

Edo wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I have noticed that very few are willing to ever admit to being wrong about anything. Of the 50 regular posters here it would not surprise me if few took the challenge. Most have no self confidence.

1. Obama will be a spectacular failure. He will be seen even before day one as a mental lightweight. He is just not up to the job and everyone will be laughing at his stuttering.

2. The Irish economy will totally collapse and this will lead to other predictions.

3. The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.

4. Reality will set in and everyone will accept that the welfare state is over. Anyone who mentions free health care will be looked upon as a dingbat. You will see all forms of dole reduced to subsistance. You will see huge layoffs in the civil service and the army begin to be reduced.

5. The government will lose their majority very soon, in weeks,

6. Cowen will get tossed

7 The dollar and the Euro will both get whacked. Interest rates will rise sharply and a currency crisis will ensue

8. Both gold and oil will rise sharply from here. Oil at 35 dollarsa few days ago was likely the low even as the economy falls into a deoression

9. Riots similiar to Greece will spread to Spain Italy France Britain Holland Belgium and maybe Ireland

10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt

BONUS: If there are smart FF TDs I expect this. They will break from FF and demand that FG join them in a national government. It will be to save their own skins but a smart move nonetheless. FG are snookered if given power and would only last a short time. FG as a party should avoid an election but Kenny only cares about himself. If there is an election smart FG TD's would do well to jump ship and as a new combined party grab 5 years in power and blame everything on FF/FG

who cares ya libertarian freak!

but I'll save your list and throw it back in your face this time next year - how do you like your eggs done BTW?

Didn't he predict once that some obscure libertarian non-entity called Paul or something would win the 2008 US presidential election?

Gents...

ibis wrote:

Gents...

"Its thataway" *points*

And you predicted that Rudy and Elephant Whole would win the nominations. Paul lasted a lot longer than Rudy anyway.

But credit where do, now you have provided us with 10 well thought out predictions and they are on record. We will see if your batting averages have improved.

Papal Knight wrote:

ibis wrote:

Gents...

"Its thataway" *points*

As long as everyone knows where it is, and goes there when they need to.

1. Fianna Fáil and the Greens will suffer in the Euros and locals, but not as much as FG and Lab would have hoped.

2. On the foot of the Euro/locals, Kenny mounts a challenge to Cowen in the Dáil, but is defeated, leading to Kenny being replaced by Bruton. (This might happen after the budget)

3. Another early budget, major shuffles in the civil service, dole reduced and other hars cutbacks. Budget scrutinized by Bruton. Warcries yet again, but not as bad as after this year's budget because people have come to accept that we are not in the CT anymore. Recovery from the budget is slow for FF, but they manage to limp their way to the end of 2009.

4. Libertas disappoint in the Euros at home and abroad. Simons utterly fails to break a very hard-fought Dublin (I won't fathom a guess at whether Ganley gets in).

5. No newcomers in the Dublin Euro-constituency. Mary Lou holds on to her seat as does Gay. Eoin Ryan (FF) or Poinsias de Rossa (Lab) to get ther boot, probably de Rossa.

6. Lisbon will be held later on in the year than the Euros due to uncertainty of ensuring a Yes vote at the time of the Euros. Therefore, the pro-Lisbon parties will be trying to keep Lisbon out of debate as much aspossible in the run-up to the Euros, while the anti-Lisbon parties will effectively be trying to turn it into a Lisbon debate.

7. Controversy and criticism will attach to international anti-piracy efforts as international forces close in on the pirates but are unable to effectively deal with them due to international law.

8. The Mahon Tribunal publishes its final report about corruption in the planning process. Nobody feels particularly fulfilled, and question why exactly we spent so much money on it in the first place.

9. In the US, Libertarians and Republicans try to paint Obama's first few months in office as a disaster, but they're not. America's economic woes continue but Obama remains popular and keeps the people calm and confident.

10. Lisbon II is held and things get very ugly. I couldn't predict whether it passes or not.

Papal Knight wrote:

1. The government will have to have another budget by May.

2. The government will fall by early October and Ireland will go to the polls in November. A Fine Gael-Labour government will be appointed in December 2009. The two remaining Green TDs will support the government and one may be in cabinet. Enda Kenny will become taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore will become tanaiste. Fianna Fáil will achieve the lowest percentage total at the election in history, with one-third of cabinet ministers losing their seats.

3. Barack Obama's performance in the first year will earn plaudits and achieve the highest popularity ratings in history.

4. A British general election will be called in June and a hung parliament will result.

5. Lisbon will occur in October and will be passed.

6. Pope Benedict will have a serious health upset later in the year, possibly another stroke.

7. If still in power Gordon Brown will announce in the last third of the year that it is imperative that the United Kingdom join the Euro, which will have established itself as the dominant international currency.

8. The new European Commission, delayed in appointment in November, will assume office in December.

9. Lisbon will come into force by the end of November 2009/beginning December, with the new commission formed under Lisbon.

10. President Barroso will be re-appointed commission president.

Some additional predictions:

1. FF will have a disastrous local elections, but having had such a disastrous 2004 locals there are few more seats they can lose. They will dress up the fact that they did not lose heavily as a win and hope the media fall for the dodgy claim and not realise that they were already so low that loses were always unlikely.

2. Criticism within FF of Cowen, Lenihan and Coughlan will mount during the year.

3. In the first half of the year a British tabloid will break a major story about the behaviour of Brian Cowen, leading to demands that he step down inside as well as outside Fianna Fáil. This may lead to a motion of confidence being put down in him and at least one minister resigning and supporting the rebellion. The story being broken will lead to an avalanche of other media coverage on the same issue concerning other senior ministers. (Note: the story will not be sexual.)

4. Brian Cowen will either at the end of 2009 or in 2010 be forced out of the leadership or decide to quit.

5. Bertie Ahern will be severely criticised in the Mahon Tribunal Report for non-co-operation with the tribunal and wasting tribunal time. Some, if not all, of his costs will be refused and he will face a bill of millions. He will go to the courts seeking to overturn the judgement and lose the case. The damage done by the report, and his indebteness as a result should be also be judged liable to pick up the tab running to many millions for the time wasted by non-co-operation, will put paid to talk of he becoming president.

6. A TD is likely to resign or die in 2009.

7. Fine Gael will win the Dublin South by-election which is likely to be held in June in tandem with the Euros and locals.

8. Gay Mitchell will top the poll in Dublin in the Euros. The last two seats will involve a scramble between Eoin Ryan (FF), de Rossa (Lab) and Mary Lou McDonald (SF). The final seat will be a battle between Ryan and McDonald with Ryan winning in the end.

9. Kathy Sinnott will lose her seat in South while the Libertas candidates in Ireland will all flop badly.

10. The U2 Tower, Arnotts redevelopment plans and an Irish bank will all be victims of the severe recession while another bank will be saved from collapse by a forced merger. An Phoblacht is also in danger of collapse.

11. Plans for an elected senate to replace the House of Lords will be announced in 2009 but will not be implemented. The remaining elected hereditaries will lose their seats.

12. A senior Irish chuchman will die in 2009.

13. Ryan Tubridy will be approached by a British TV station with a view to hosting a chat show in the UK and will be undecided as to whether to accept.

14. Conan O'Brien will replace Jay Leno on the Tonight Show.

15. Key parts of the capital programme will be abandoned, including Metro North.

I know under even ideal conditions you are full of baloney but now you are at 25 predictions and counting.

WTF, do you get 100 in the hope that you might be close with one of them.

1. Current government to hold.

2. Drastic and illadvised budget in the first half of the year.

3. From the above, VAT increase of last bedget will be recinded to previous level (possibly lowered).

4. Civil service pay cuts will be talked about/announced but then called off.

5. The true extent on the Recession to become clear.

6. Vast increase in emigration by Irish people.

7. Increase in social disquiet in mainland Europe, particularly France and Spain.

8. significant improvements in Iraq.

9. Libertas to take at least 25 seats with at least 1 in Ireland.

10. Bye, bye, Lisbon.

11. Youngdan to be told off for being mean to NDS.

Me cyrstal ball is broken but I'll just make some guesses for whatever they're worth. (hint, zero).

1. Lisbon - for the slow learners, Lisbon for all intents and purposes has already passed in a vast number of member states and the mechanisms for introducing its new structures are already in advanced stages. Ireland will be presented with a very stark choice - join the club or sit on the sidelines. Make no mistake about the long term aims of the Brussels Euroelite, the military-industrial juggernaut is coming to a town near you. We can expect trillions of Euros to be spent over the next decade as the European superstructure is constructed, and Irish politicos want their pound of cash. While everyone bangs on about the military aspect almost no one mentions that the "civilian" structures of each member state are to be harmonised for the common good of defense or whatever. The recent govt announcement regarding tax-payer contributions to R&D and tie-ups with leading multinationals might just give one a hint about the extent to which the new military-industrial complex will impact on every citizen's lives. I expect the real money to start hitting the streets in 2010. This money will be controlled and dolled out by Brussels. The balance of power (money) will shift from individual countries to Brussels in a meaningful manner.

2. D'economy - shite for 2009. Quell suprise! Somewhere in 2010 we'll begin to see an economic turn around as Brussels dosh trickles into dear auld Eurireland.

3. Home prices - stabalise towards the end of 2009 and remain one, if not, the highest prices per capita in Europe.

4. Irish Banking - stagnant throughout 2009. Will not lead the economy but slowly respond to renewed speculation on property and the influx of Euromilitary spending.

5. D'Oirish Govt - take a beating in the locals. So what. If Cowan can't hang tough, they'll sacrifice him and find another joxer. If the economy begins to turn around in 2010 and beyond, we can fully expect another 5 years of FF, and probably beyond. In the abscence of an alternative economic policy, one party rule is effectively a foregone conclusion in most European states. Anyway in most instances its only a choice between tweedily dee and tweedily dum. Whatever pol party can bow lowest and kiss as many multinationals arses as possible will be seen to be the best managers of the economy.

6. Govt for the people and by the people will become largely irrelevant in 2009 and beyond. Govt for the people and by the people requires that the electorate is informed, sceptical and organised. Most of the electorates across the globe aren't any of the above.

7. For the first time in a couple of generations, a subsection of the British population will resume the subsistence "lifestyle" as cheap credit disappears and the dole and other entitlements are slashed. While many will temporarily escape as the economy turns around in 2010-2011, many will be left behind. Given the lack of new economic models or industries, we can expect the see every economic downturn add to the subsistence population.

Ireland, while not immune from this phenomenon, is a full economic cycle behind their neighbors and will not experience the same level of despair this time but will add to the subsistence population during each subsequent eco downturn. The Euromilitary money will be funneled into the top echelon of each economy - ie the very best educated. I really can't see how FF will be able to funnel tax payers Euros into ordinary landowners pockets in the future, although I'm sure they'll give it the auld fraternity try.

8. Hmmm. Current middle east "crisis" to quieten down again and resume again and to quieten down again and . . .

9. Obama - no surprises, no big changes. Given the chronic state of the US economy his hands are largely tied. When the upturn in the world economy resumes in a meaningul way, it will be lead by the far east and europe. I just wonder how much silly,excess consumable shite the europeans will really want to buy from the far east, although I'm sure our governments will encourage rampant consumption (and debt) in order to fulfill our patriotic duty to keep the economy growing. And as the mountain of useless consumables are produced and paid for through debt, the govts will keep banging on about environmental issues.

10. If I live, I'll be a year older. (This is the only one I willing to bet on.)