Your Ten Predictions for 2009 - a Challenge from Youngdan

Have a happy New Year 905. Like Ibis you are a great poster to have a bit of back and forth with. Even with all the confusing events of the Congo War I eventually had to admit to myself that my view of the Katanga situation was not as clear cut as I thought.

The majority of those pesky Balubas were in fact on the side you said they were and the group that killed the Irish group were in the minority.

On to 09

Oh fuck off with your BaLuba, I'm sick to the back teeth with them and that whole sorry saga. Eh, didn't I have to admit that the whole thing was probably premeditated or something? God, let's never mention them again.

Plenty more happening in the east of the Congo. I think the Irish were all for sending in European troops. There's no chance of our fellows going in so it's no skin off their noses.

Right on, they are on their own. Time to worry about Ireland

Well no, it's terrible what's happening there. But we can't be (hiccup!) everywhere. The boys and girls are out in Chad now, protecting Sudanese refugees if the press is to be believed. They are helping the French in some colonial skullduggery if the critics are to be believed. If cactus-flower were here she'd fill you in on the devious exploits of the French.

Ireland's grand, you shouldn't trust in the Tabloids. I don't know what kind of impression you have of Ireland but the crime rate's down believe it or not. Funny thing about organised crime, I think it's supposed to be good for the crime statistics. Much cleaner you see. Anyway, what would the army do here? Protect the bank vans, that's all I ever see them do.

The army are costly at a billion a year. Organised crime does not the crime rate for 2 reasons. The punishment for crossing the Man are most definately a deterrent and reporting to cops is also less appealing. I see road deaths are down which is a blesing anyway.

If one wanted to start an argument you could say that this was a direct result of 100000 drivers having gone home who were used to driving on the wrong side of the road.

Chat like that is frowned upon and now my new years resolution to be more politically correct is kicking in

fuck new years rwesolutions. I was toying with one but I completely forget what it was. Never bothered with them anyway.

We had a problem with crossing the man a while ago. A lot of witnesses were suddenly chickening out. I think the legislators got on it.

Come on over to the Dark Side youngdan. You know it's very common to criticise the PC-brigade and give out about the thought police. Bless them, they think they are being anti-establishment. Being pc is where all the cool kids are.

Drink drivers are still out there. I planned to have a rant at one there a while ago about an offending drive home (after I bought her a Baileys), but she brought her lucious daughter in to class the next day, so I had to keep shtum. Dirty trick.

youngdan wrote:

my new years resolution to be more politically correct is kicking in

Say it ain't so...

It is like the famous Christmas Truce of 1914. If they had only shot the officers instead.

youngdan wrote:

It is like the famous Christmas Truce of 1914. If they had only shot the officers instead.

What about the ref man? That mustard gas was fuckin offside

cookiemonster wrote:

youngdan wrote:

my new years resolution to be more politically correct is kicking in

Say it ain't so...

Say it ain't so Joe.. question put to Shoeless Joe Jackson, the Chicago Blacksox great hitter after they fixed the 1919 World Series. The Papal Knights of the day refused to believe the wingnuts who said the game was not on the level. They had no Fox News in those days and sure enough Chicago was almost as crocked as it is today.

No ref, no umpire, in fact no rules, after all who was even keeping score.

'Almost' being the operative word...

Have they linked it back to Obama yet? Jerry Springer was on Have I got News For You a while ago, made some very funny defensive comments about Illinois corruption.

youngdan wrote:

No ref, no umpire, in fact no rules, after all who was even keeping score.

The French? It's not like they were fighting. Cue drumroll!

I agree with 905 that predicting specific events is not a serious activity, but it would be inexcusable not to try to anticipate and plan for (or forestall) the things that we can see coming.

Youngdan says that we all predict based on what we know about the present situation, but there are limits to that. If prediction was that easy, there would be no betting on horse races. World events are a lot more complex. Precise predictions I think are a shot in the dark, but understanding underlying causes and trends, along with knowledge about present conditions gives us our best chance of anticipating events.

I thought a bit about the last year, and what I had "predicted" and what caught me totally on the hop. Some things I saw coming - a year ago on P.ie I said that health would become a government-wrecking issue, and the idea was laughed at. I also pointed to the vast US budget deficit as a time bomb that was going to go off, at an unspecified time and in an unspecified way. It was possible to see ahead for more than a year that the Irish property boom was ending and that Ireland would be faced with a serious problem of over-reliance on property, overpaid public servants and loss of Foreign Direct Investment employment. Unemployment and a large budget deficit were the predictable outcome.

What I failed to anticipate was the main event that characterised the year - the massive and catastrophic failure of the international banking system, and in particular the suddenness and scale of the financial system's collapse. The rapidity and global extent of the collapse was not unforeseeable once the unravelling had started, but was still a profound shock. There was plenty of other unexpected events. I hadn't heard of Barrack Obama a year ago.

I was deeply impressed with 905s calls about the location of flash points, in particular South Ossetia.

Youngdan was good on the budget deficit and the ISEQ.

Auditor #9 plugged away pointing us at wind power and renewables generally - in 2008 they emerged as mainstream technology and mainstream investment.

EVM 0197 reminded us that political waste and corruption were not going to go away as issues.

Other posters made good calls and just as valuably gave careful and well informed assessment of the things that had already happened.

I enjoyed reading other posters predictions so far, and there is plenty there that rings true

My own predictions are

1. Increased tensions along in the "transit states" (oil and gas pipe lines) and in the oil producing states as the main economic powers contest control of them. Profound economic and political crises in the eastern European states. Increased tensions between the US and Europe.

2. Africa emerging as an area of development and innovation (notwithstanding number 1. above)

3. Stagflation and a continued shuddering from one new low economic benchmark to the next. A trend to protectionism. Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

4. A likelihood that the IMF will arrive in Ireland, but the IMF experiencing financial shortfall itself

5. Unemployment in Ireland over 15% - virtual wipe-out of FF in the local and European elections. Splits in/from Fianna Fail.

6. Emergence of new parties internationally, and move of marginal parties to the mainstream. Gains by the far right and regrouping on the left. Mass resistance to destruction of public services and false flag incidents to attempt to discredit it. Big increase in political discussion, study and theorising.

7. Honeymoon period for Obama followed by mass unrest - tasers on the street. Obama will prove to head up a US foreign policy every bit as toxic as Bush's. The US will make multiple moves to destabilise China - the Islamic card will be played in border areas and Pakistan will come under continued pressure.

8. New/growing areas of investment including biotechnology and renewables

9. A landmark environmental moment that will shift public cyncism about climate change.

10. Increased regulation and restriction of the Internet by legislation and interference.

11. A lot of completely unpredictable events.

I'd add to your list Cactus (excellent prognosis/prediction btw) the possibility that the severe consequences of peak oil will begin to make themselves felt - although that could be one for anytime within the next 10 years or so. Still, some are saying it is here already.

cactus flower wrote:

I was deeply impressed with 905s calls about the location of flash points, in particular South Ossetia.

For the last time, I (following the lead of others) predicted conflict beaking out in Abkhazia. There was a lot more activity there about a year ago. We got it wrong.

Quote :

11. A lot of completely unpredictable events.

I'll buy that one!

905 wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

I was deeply impressed with 905s calls about the location of flash points, in particular South Ossetia.

For the last time, I (following the lead of others) predicted conflict beaking out in Abkhazia. There was a lot more activity there about a year ago. We got it wrong.

It was close enough 905. I didn't know S.O existed until you started that thread.

Close enough indeed. The difference is like saying there would be a riot in Galway and it happening in Connemara. The difference between Renmore and Rahoon

Aragon wrote:

I'd add to your list Cactus (excellent prognosis/prediction btw) the possibility that the severe consequences of peak oil will begin to make themselves felt - although that could be one for anytime within the next 10 years or so. Still, some are saying it is here already.

Some oil exploration expert on the radio told me that we are only near peak oil at $40.00 a barrel, at $200 a barrel we are anything up to 100 years away from peak. He seemed to know what he was talking about. Could there be any truth in that at all?

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

I'd add to your list Cactus (excellent prognosis/prediction btw) the possibility that the severe consequences of peak oil will begin to make themselves felt - although that could be one for anytime within the next 10 years or so. Still, some are saying it is here already.

Some oil exploration expert on the radio told me that we are only near peak oil at $40.00 a barrel, at $200 a barrel we are anything up to 100 years away from peak. He seemed to know what he was talking about. Could there be any truth in that at all?

Yes and no. Peak oil is the point of maximum oil extraction rate, after which the rate of production must fall - a reflection of the relative balance of discovery and exhaustion. Discovery rates have been falling since the 1960's, exhaustion rates have been rising. In the absence of dramatically different technology or understanding of petroleum deposits, discovery rates will continue to fall.

However, if you factor in the world economy's reaction to $200 a barrel oil, in terms of the reduction in usage and wastage, plus the additional reserves that become economic at that cost, then it's clear that we have more usable oil at $200 than $40. That doesn't change the fact that we'll continue to run out of new discoveries, so technically we're still in peak oil, but it will delay/mitigate the impact, so the current rate of production could be sustained, as the guy says, for 100 years instead of starting to fall in the next couple of years.

Right, I'll add a few predictions to this list...

1.We will see a further steep drop in the rate of inflation this year to the extent it could reach 0% by mid-year.

2.The economy will contract by about 3.5% over the course of the year.

3.National debt will rise to 50% of GDP.

4.The price of oil will be subdued for this year.

5.Fine Gael will become the largest party at local level in this year's local elections.

6.The government will not fall but continue to stumble on.

7.Ireland will not get the wooden spoon in the Six Nations.

8.Ireland will not win Eurovision

9.The medium-term trend of global cooling will end.

10.The CDU will go on to form the next German government.

Some interesting ones there A-T. Did you read that report on the borrowing. A big rise percentagewise last year but what happens if the GDP fall sharply to further conpound the increased debt part.

youngdan wrote:

Some interesting ones there A-T. Did you read that report on the borrowing. A big rise percentagewise last year but what happens if the GDP fall sharply to further conpound the increased debt part.

It's a double-edged sword youngdan. The fall in GDP hits tax revenues on all fronts meaning that the financing gap is widened meaning the government has to borrow more to close it raising the absolute level of debt. Furthermore the fall in GDP means that the rising debt is being divided by a falling economy leading to very sharp rises in the proportional size of national debt.

We've seen it go up 8% in 2008 so a 16% increase over 2009 is not an unreasonable forecast to make. I am however hoping I am profoundly wrong and it will undershoot this figure by a significant margin. The sad fact of the matter is that this is not likely.

I would agree with all that and expect it to be far beyond 50%. The GDP part of the equation is difficult to change so the debt side must be tackled instead.

This fact better be faced quickly because delay will be catastrophic. It is relatively low at the moment but these are not normal times.

Have a look at the table showing the highest percentages. Italy, Greece and Belgium at the top. It is not a coincidence that there are riots in one and talk of secession in the other two.

A huge story building for 2009 and beyond when the borrowing option is closed to these basket cases.