What the Mainlanders are saying

Just lost a post on several interesting German articles.

This one is most interesting.

Written by Die Welt's Brussels correspondent Hannelore Crolly (and entirely unsubstantiated), it suggests that the conciliatory noises of the last few days will be absent from tomorrow's summit. Instead, BC will be faced with an ultimatum.

Three months (or until October) to find out what's wrong and present suggestions to the EU for amendments for the new constitution. In parallel, the other states will continue to ratify. By early new year, Ireland will be isolated.

Then the protocol clarifications will be drafted - though legally meaningless -and put to the electorate again in spring. At which time we'll say yes.

And I think this particular nugget is worthy of direct translation.

Quote :

In Berlin und Paris wird sogar darüber nachgedacht, den irischen Premierminister Cowen zu drängen, mit dem neuen Referendum auch über die Mitgliedschaft Irlands abzustimmen. „Dann müssen die Iren
zustimmen“, heißt es. Aber das sind noch Gedankenspiele.

"In Berlin and Paris it is being considered whether to force Cowen to have a vote on Ireland's membership of the EU at the same time as the new referendum. Then the Irish will have to say yes, is the belief. But these are just ideas. "

Kate P wrote:

And I think this particular nugget is worthy of direct translation.

Quote :

In Berlin und Paris wird sogar darüber nachgedacht, den irischen Premierminister Cowen zu drängen, mit dem neuen Referendum auch über die Mitgliedschaft Irlands abzustimmen. „Dann müssen die Iren
zustimmen“, heißt es. Aber das sind noch Gedankenspiele.

"In Berlin and Paris it is being considered whether to force Cowen to have a vote on Ireland's membership of the EU at the same time as the new referendum. Then the Irish will have to say yes, is the belief. But these are just ideas. "

But that is out and out bullying! Wtf are those bloody Germans and French playing at? Do they think that if they risked a referendum their voters would have voted Yes? Are they so secure that they think that they could have ratified this Treaty away from the comfort of whips, party lines and parliamentary majorities? I'm pretty sure the peoples of both France and Germany would have rejected this Treaty by far larger margins than ourselves in Ireland and yet their membership of the EU isn't being called into question. That quote utterly disgusts me. Those French and German governments have some nerve. They were too chicken to call referenda and specifically crafted the Treaty so that it wouldn't have to subjected to the will of the European people. Is this a community of European nations we are in or a Franco-German Empire?

They'll have to add protocols into the Treaty rather than amend it if that's how we'll be allowed to proceed... otherwise the other countries will be accepting a treaty they haven't 100% ratified themselves - sort of a weird situation maybe.

I watched plenty of the debate in the House of Lords and Baroness Ashton of Upholland (!) - the Ceann Comhairle or AG - was very mindful that the treaty itself says it cannot be ratified without all 27. She wasn't alone - there was plenty of dissenting opinion among the Loads present there this evening. They concluded at 277 to pass and 184 against and were unanimous in the opinion that
the debate was a lot more exciting than some old referendum. har har.

Kate P wrote:

Just lost a post on several interesting German articles.

This one is most interesting.

Written by Die Welt's Brussels correspondent Hannelore Crolly (and entirely unsubstantiated), it suggests that the conciliatory noises of the last few days will be absent from tomorrow's summit. Instead, BC will be faced with an ultimatum.

Three months (or until October) to find out what's wrong and present suggestions to the EU for amendments for the new constitution. In parallel, the other states will continue to ratify. By early new year, Ireland will be isolated.

Then the protocol clarifications will be drafted - though legally meaningless -and put to the electorate again in spring. At which time we'll say yes.

And I think this particular nugget is worthy of direct translation.

Quote :

In Berlin und Paris wird sogar darüber nachgedacht, den irischen Premierminister Cowen zu drängen, mit dem neuen Referendum auch über die Mitgliedschaft Irlands abzustimmen. „Dann müssen die Iren
zustimmen“, heißt es. Aber das sind noch Gedankenspiele.

"In Berlin and Paris it is being considered whether to force Cowen to have a vote on Ireland's membership of the EU at the same time as the new referendum. Then the Irish will have to say yes, is the belief. But these are just ideas. "

Well now.

That deserves a wider audience than MN imho.

Auditor #9 wrote:

They concluded at 277 to pass and 184 against and were unanimous in the opinion that
the debate was a lot more exciting than some old referendum. har har.

Well, they're Brits, so what do they know? Referenda are mighty fun in this country, win lose or draw, they're great gabfests where all manner of strange and startling organisations come out of the wood-work and start campaigning.

Plus it's great to see the political establishment slug it out with fringe parties like SF and rookies like Libertas and mad yokes in other organisations.

Referenda, boring!? You might as well say that life itself is boring!

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Is this a community of European nations we are in or a Franco-German Empire?

In a growing Franco-German empire I fear. The two of them embracing each other like dangerous snakes.

The Union is becoming unpleasant, in those terms at least.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

They concluded at 277 to pass and 184 against and were unanimous in the opinion that
the debate was a lot more exciting than some old referendum. har har.

Well, they're Brits, so what do they know? Referenda are mighty fun in this country, win lose or draw, they're great gabfests where all manner of strange and startling organisations come out of the wood-work and start campaigning.

Plus it's great to see the political establishment slug it out with fringe parties like SF and rookies like Libertas and mad yokes in other organisations.

Referenda, boring!? You might as well say that life itself is boring!

Sorry, to be accurate it was 277 against an amendment to postpone ratification for 4 months. 184 voted in favour of doing so.

Is it really a receipe for instability ? That House of Lords debate wasn't overwhelmingly Yes...

arnaudherve wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Is this a community of European nations we are in or a Franco-German Empire?

In a growing Franco-German empire I fear. The two of them embracing each other as dangerous snakes.

Well then we should oppose it and ensure that it dissolves and a truly democratic Europe, representative of all people's interests emerges. We fought for almost eight centuries against another oppressive empire, I'll not lightly see us led blindly into another!

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Kate P wrote:

And I think this particular nugget is worthy of direct translation.

Quote :

In Berlin und Paris wird sogar darüber nachgedacht, den irischen Premierminister Cowen zu drängen, mit dem neuen Referendum auch über die Mitgliedschaft Irlands abzustimmen. „Dann müssen die Iren
zustimmen“, heißt es. Aber das sind noch Gedankenspiele.

"In Berlin and Paris it is being considered whether to force Cowen to have a vote on Ireland's membership of the EU at the same time as the new referendum. Then the Irish will have to say yes, is the belief. But these are just ideas. "

But that is out and out bullying! Wtf are those bloody Germans and French playing at? Do they think that if they risked a referendum their voters would have voted Yes? Are they so secure that they think that they could have ratified this Treaty away from the comfort of whips, party lines and parliamentary majorities? I'm pretty sure the peoples of both France and Germany would have rejected this Treaty by far larger margins than ourselves in Ireland and yet their membership of the EU isn't being called into question. That quote utterly disgusts me. Those French and German governments have some nerve. They were too chicken to call referenda and specifically crafted the Treaty so that it wouldn't have to subjected to the will of the European people. Is this a community of European nations we are in or a Franco-German Empire?

We are in a community whose point is to stop the Germans and the French fighting each other, not to provide the Irish with nice things. Neither the French nor the Germans have any formal referendum mechanisms for treaties (indeed, only us and the Danish have such mechanisms), so the Treaty wasn't "designed" to avoid referendums, because no such design is necessary.

They're not bullying us. Look at it from their point of view - we, the Irish people, are attempting to use our unusual constitutional mechanism to either force the rest of Europe to abandon their plans, or else to give us some nice toys to keep us quiet.

That's two bites at the cherry. First our government negotiates, then we vote no, then we get some more concessions. If the EU gives us them, then it makes no sense to vote Yes to EU treaties - we should always vote No first time. It's moral hazard territory.

This comes back to the realpolitik angle (which, to answer cf's question, wasn't mentioned by the RefComm because their remit is to stick to the facts). We're not necessary - we're a passenger, not one of the drivers - and we're laying down the law to the rest of the EU. They don't like it, even if it is in the rules, and they may choose to change the rules on us. If that sucks, well, that's life.

As to the question of whether anyone on the Yes side mentioned this, I can't answer for the official campaign, but I certainly did raise it before the vote, and was told I was scaremongering and trying to bully people into voting Yes.

Hmm. How did I see this put? The EU has certain problems, to which it believes what is in the Treaty of Lisbon (and was largely in the Constitution) are the answer.

Ireland voting No does not change those problems, or offer any solutions.

That means that the pressure to solve those problems will not go away. Which means that, essentially, it is only a matter of time before we either say Yes to the agreed solutions or are removed from a position where our agreement is necessary.

Much is made of the idea that the EU cannot afford to look like a big bully. Can it afford to look like anyone can hold it over a barrel?

ibis wrote:

We're not necessary - we're a passenger, not one of the drivers - and we're laying down the law to the rest of the EU. They don't like it, even if it is in the rules, and they may choose to change the rules on us.

I think this is anachronistic. At the time of your accession, you were indeed a passenger. But since then (more than 30 years ago), you've been a full administrative board member.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Kate P wrote:

And I think this particular nugget is worthy of direct translation.

Quote :

In Berlin und Paris wird sogar darüber nachgedacht, den irischen Premierminister Cowen zu drängen, mit dem neuen Referendum auch über die Mitgliedschaft Irlands abzustimmen. „Dann müssen die Iren
zustimmen“, heißt es. Aber das sind noch Gedankenspiele.

"In Berlin and Paris it is being considered whether to force Cowen to have a vote on Ireland's membership of the EU at the same time as the new referendum. Then the Irish will have to say yes, is the belief. But these are just ideas. "

But that is out and out bullying! Wtf are those bloody Germans and French playing at? Do they think that if they risked a referendum their voters would have voted Yes? Are they so secure that they think that they could have ratified this Treaty away from the comfort of whips, party lines and parliamentary majorities? I'm pretty sure the peoples of both France and Germany would have rejected this Treaty by far larger margins than ourselves in Ireland and yet their membership of the EU isn't being called into question. That quote utterly disgusts me. Those French and German governments have some nerve. They were too chicken to call referenda and specifically crafted the Treaty so that it wouldn't have to subjected to the will of the European people. Is this a community of European nations we are in or a Franco-German Empire?

There is a schoolyard lesson here.
Those who have something to fear, come out guns blazing.
Those who are insecure will compensate with aggressiveness.

Ard-T, I think your post uncovered the universally standardised aegis of the political class.
Same as the aegis of 8 year olds.

ibis wrote:

Which means that, essentially, it is only a matter of time before we either say Yes to the agreed solutions or are removed from a position where our agreement is necessary.

How? How can the EU sanction a member state for a procedure which is legal according to the EU?

You also forget the fact that all Nordic nations are reluctant, in one way or another.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

There is a schoolyard lesson here.
Those who have something to fear, come out guns blazing.
Those who are insecure will compensate with aggressiveness.

Ard-T, I think your post uncovered the universally standardised aegis of the political class.
Same as the aegis of 8 year olds.

So you think the French and Germans are just trying to obscure the fact that Lisbon has no popular mandate with their people either by applying this pressure on us?

arnaudherve wrote:

ibis wrote:

Which means that, essentially, it is only a matter of time before we either say Yes to the agreed solutions or are removed from a position where our agreement is necessary.

How? How can the EU sanction a member state for a procedure which is legal according to the EU?

You also forget the fact that all Nordic nations are reluctant, in one way or another.

I don't, Arnaud. I'm well aware the EU has an internal opposition, which is what makes all this merely possible rather than definite. As to how the EU can do something that isn't legal - traditionally, you make it legal, and then do it.

If I were currently EU dictator (not possible, of course, since Lisbon was needed to create that position), I would do it by saying that the Irish government negotiated and signed the Lisbon Treaty 'in bad faith' (by virtue of clearly not representing the Irish people), and should be struck off as a signatory. That leaves Ireland in legal limbo, member of an EU that no longer exists, because, as has been pointed out repeatedly, the Treaty of Lisbon "re-establishes" the EU as a partnership between the contracting nations.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

There is a schoolyard lesson here.
Those who have something to fear, come out guns blazing.
Those who are insecure will compensate with aggressiveness.

Ard-T, I think your post uncovered the universally standardised aegis of the political class.
Same as the aegis of 8 year olds.

So you think the French and Germans are just trying to obscure the fact that Lisbon has no popular mandate with their people either by applying this pressure on us?

I think this is a quite extraordinary piece of wishful thinking!

ibis wrote:

arnaudherve wrote:

ibis wrote:

Which means that, essentially, it is only a matter of time before we either say Yes to the agreed solutions or are removed from a position where our agreement is necessary.

How? How can the EU sanction a member state for a procedure which is legal according to the EU?

You also forget the fact that all Nordic nations are reluctant, in one way or another.

I don't, Arnaud. I'm well aware the EU has an internal opposition, which is what makes all this merely possible rather than definite. As to how the EU can do something that isn't legal - traditionally, you make it legal, and then do it.

So what was the point of the Irish referendum if the only correct answer is Yes? Why do bother with referenda if we only have one choice?

ibis wrote:

If I were currently EU dictator (not possible, of course, since Lisbon was needed to create that position), I would do it by saying that the Irish government negotiated and signed the Lisbon Treaty 'in bad faith' (by virtue of clearly not representing the Irish people), and should be struck off as a signatory. That leaves Ireland in legal limbo, member of an EU that no longer exists, because, as has been pointed out repeatedly, the Treaty of Lisbon "re-establishes" the EU as a partnership between the contracting nations.

I might be mistaken but, given that your constitution compelled your government to a referendum where it could be defeated, I don't see the possibility of applying that 'bad faith' strategy.

As far as I understand it, if the treaty is not signed, the current law applies. People might scowl at you, but legal procedures don't take schoolyard feelings into account.

Probably, you will end up with opt-outs, which makes you a normal Nordic country, just like those who refused the euro.

Well, now to bed anyway...

ibis wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

There is a schoolyard lesson here.
Those who have something to fear, come out guns blazing.
Those who are insecure will compensate with aggressiveness.

Ard-T, I think your post uncovered the universally standardised aegis of the political class.
Same as the aegis of 8 year olds.

So you think the French and Germans are just trying to obscure the fact that Lisbon has no popular mandate with their people either by applying this pressure on us?

I think this is a quite extraordinary piece of wishful thinking!

Do you ibis? Maybe wishful, hardly extraordinary.

Do you not think that the Irish NO has caused a heightened state of alert among Sarki, Merky and Barosso ?

On a human psychology level, do they not now strike you as people who have had fires lit under their arses ?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

ibis wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

There is a schoolyard lesson here.
Those who have something to fear, come out guns blazing.
Those who are insecure will compensate with aggressiveness.

Ard-T, I think your post uncovered the universally standardised aegis of the political class.
Same as the aegis of 8 year olds.

So you think the French and Germans are just trying to obscure the fact that Lisbon has no popular mandate with their people either by applying this pressure on us?

I think this is a quite extraordinary piece of wishful thinking!

Do you ibis? Maybe wishful, hardly extraordinary.

Do you not think that the Irish NO has caused a heightened state of alert among Sarki, Merky and Barosso ?

On a human psychology level, do they not now strike you as people who have had fires lit under their arses ?

No, not really. They're certainly looking at a crisis, but I don't think they're 'covering' for anything. They undoubtedly wish to ensure that other governments don't think they can reopen negotiations, but I don't think they're afraid their voters will rise up against them - as we've seen here, you can get the voters to vote No, but you can't make them rise up against FF.

Quote :

Probably, you will end up with opt-outs, which makes you a normal Nordic country, just like those who refused the euro.

This strikes me as the most likely course - some guarantees, an opt-out or two, and we can pretend we're relieved our worries have been cleared up and vote Yes entirely of our own volition, because we've realised that maybe, just maybe, if push came to shove, we would be the ones on the receiving end of the shove.

ibis wrote:

..
No, not really. They're certainly looking at a crisis, but I don't think they're 'covering' for anything.
..

Ah. I missed that word in AT's post. You homed in on 'covering', I was speaking more generally.

Would you accept that there is a NEW sense of urgency to get it over the line before the plebs become a problem by painting signs and blocking roads and burning flags and toppling governments and .... oh I'm wandering.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

ibis wrote:

..
No, not really. They're certainly looking at a crisis, but I don't think they're 'covering' for anything.
..

Ah. I missed that word in AT's post. You homed in on 'covering', I was speaking more generally.

Would you accept that there is a NEW sense of urgency to get it over the line before the plebs become a problem by painting signs and blocking roads and burning flags and toppling governments and .... oh I'm wandering.

I honestly don't think so. I know we're getting clapped on the back by eurosceptics across Europe, but all that proves is there are millions of eurosceptics - 10% of the EU population would make 50,000,000 eurosceptics - enough to congratulate each No voter in Ireland 60 times over. That wouldn't worry any individual government, though - it's the same level of support as SF enjoyed, and that failed to turn the world upside-down.

I'm sure there are somewhat more than 10% eurosceptics, but I suspect they're still in a minority.

Wouldn't you call them Lisbosceptics more accurately? 277/184 in House of Lords tonight in favour of not postponing the bill, our vote of confidence in Lisbon and the previous 'No' referendums from France and the Netherlands... amounts to a large amount of scepticism or ignorance.

Tim Garton Ash is also disgusted at the German reaction last weekend - says we are now on Plan D and probably need to go to Plan E -

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/19/eu.ireland

Who was that headbanger looking for Charlie McCreevy's head on a plate ?