Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

youngdan wrote:

Your pessimism is approaching realism

You're very interested in my outlook, youngdan. Thanks for your concern.

You can be looked upon as a contrary indicator. Things will be dire before you admit it.

The retail sales index was released today. You can read the full report here.

Retail sales continued their downward path with the volume index down 2.1%. The total value of sales is up 1.4%.

You seem to report more bad news each day Ard. All gloom and doom from you. Just imagine the further drop in tax revenue these numbers portend. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust and Ireland is in for a nasty surprise. Oil is touching 127 today so 1.50 a litre is on the way there. The good news is that the Chinese will be selling their bicycles.

youngdan wrote:

You seem to report more bad news each day Ard. All gloom and doom from you.

Well, I take an inclusive view on the statistics contained within this thread. I shall continue with my optimistic view on things, but that will not preclude me from posting on statistics like these.

Quote :

Just imagine the further drop in tax revenue these numbers portend. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust and Ireland is in for a nasty surprise. Oil is touching 127 today so 1.50 a litre is on the way there. The good news is that the Chinese will be selling their bicycles.

Well, if you look at the ESRI, Deutsche Bank and OECD forecasts, we're actually doing, and continue to do well. Strong growth on average will continue far into the future.

The way things are going on the world stage I would hazard a guess that Monday could be "far into the future"

youngdan wrote:

You seem to report more bad news each day Ard. All gloom and doom from you. Just imagine the further drop in tax revenue these numbers portend. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust and Ireland is in for a nasty surprise. Oil is touching 127 today so 1.50 a litre is on the way there. The good news is that the Chinese will be selling their bicycles.

Ireland isn't in for a nastier surprise than anyone else, the bottom line is that we have a huge ag surplus, a large quota of this is livestock, and our cows (and sheep) mostly eat grass, supplemented with hay or silage in the "winter". We will at least be able to feed ourselves and this ability will not be terminally affected by the lack of oil based fertiliser; there is NO shortage of slurry. This is actually one of the few big differences between the Peak oil and climate change camps... cows are bad for climate change but not bad at all with regard to oil shortages, they produce fertilizer and don't require ploughing/harvesting/spraying etc

If I were Chinese, the LAST thing I'd be doing is flogging the bike; the earthquake coverage included plenty of mention of the petrol shortages. They may not ever reach our totally car dependent status, moreover, their government is filled with scientists and engineers, unlike in the West, where we tend to elect barristers and accountants. My feeling is the Chinese may have been planning for this one a long time (look at all the oil field rights and ag land they're planning to buy) and the chances are they'll survive just fine... seen the plans for Dongtan??? They've also got coal reserves, although are no longer self sufficient

freedomlover makes a good point regarding retail sales on P.ie, here's the post:

If new car sales are excluded, the volume of retail sales was up 1.2% year-on-year in March and up 2.1% year-on-year in Q1. These are much higher increases than most Eurozone countries are seeing (in France and Germany the volume of retail sales was down year-on-year). Normally, of course, new car sales should not be excluded. But, this year new car sales are distorted by the fact that 70% of new cars are going to see large price reductions on 1st July. Therefore, I'd expect new cars sales to show large falls year-on-year in April, May and June, which is bound to affect the overall retail sales volume figures in those months. In July new car sales should increase year-on-year. So, this year we won't know the true picture regarding retail sales until a couple of months after 1st July, when the distorting effect of the price changes has worked its way through.

Freedomlover has got to be paid for the spinning he does. It is at the stage now that it is money wasted.

No one on this site is accused of taking money youngdan. Not unless I get a cut.

Freedomlover is the last optimist back on Pie. There was another lad but he gave up about 6 months ago.

youngdan wrote:

Freedomlover is the last optimist back on Pie. There was another lad but he gave up about 6 months ago.

Are you talking about Éirenua? He just faded into the ether, didn't he?

That was him, He committed Hari-Kari about the same time Saratoga and I differed on where Bear Sterns was headed from 104 dollars a share. Saratoga posts occasionally but never since on financial threads

Very positive report in the SBP last Sunday on front page about borrowing and capital projects. Worth a read. I'll reprint it in full as it's basically from the public body the national economic and social council.
http://www.nesc.ie/

It recommends borrowing and getting our house in order for the next wave of economic growth which in my opinion will either come or it will be back to the stone age the way oil is going. We're poised for a surge of growth in areas like energy research and technology and even more information technology as the rest of the 'G15' come online and the current offending ones adjust accordingly
http://forums.csis.org/gsi/?cat=52
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/exec/steve/2008/04-21ICTBestPractices.mspx

We need to prepare for it by doing many many things infrastructurally from building affordable housing, transport and roads, to providing pertinent education.

State must push up borrowing to fund key projects(link)

Quote :

The government should borrow right up to EU limits, to maintain key investment in infrastructure as the exchequer finances tighten, according to a major report being completed by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC).

In a remarkably upbeat assessment, the think-tank said that the economy can enter a new era of growth, provided the government undertakes key reforms successfully.

While many analysts have warned that Ireland faces major competitiveness challenges, the NESC believes the next phase of the technology revolution can create enormous opportunities, particularly for fast-growing service exporters.
ts report calls for major reforms, including increased investment in education, a continuation of investment in infrastructure and education, and a reform of public services, to increase accountability and effectiveness. It suggests tax reforms, including the replacement of stamp duty with ‘‘a more sustainable and equitable form of property tax’’.

The NESC report is being drawn up for the social partners - the employers, trade unions, government nominees, and social and community representatives - as part of an evaluation of economic policy undertaken to coincide with the current partnership talks. It will carry particular weight with new Taoiseach Brian Cowen, as he strives to complete a partnership deal.

The report follows an upbeat economic assessment from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI),which last week said the economy could grow by close to 4 per cent a year once the current international downturn passes.

The NESC report underlines significant opportunities which it believes will be created by the next phase of technological development.

It said Ireland benefited hugely from the development of technologies through the attraction of major international firms in electronics and other sectors. The NESC now believes that, as the deployment of this technology transforms international business, there are huge opportunities for small, efficient economies.

‘‘Far from Ireland’s economic success coming to an end, an even more profound period of economic progress may lie ahead,” it said.

The NESC points to the massive growth in exports from the services sector driven, in particular, by software, technology and business and financial services, and said services must now be central to policy development, replacing the traditional focus on manufacturing export s. ‘

Major new opportunities will be opened up in these sectors, as the spread of broadband technology leads to massive growth in international trade in the service sectors. Maintaining investment is vital, if Ireland is to take advantage of these opportunities, it said.

Borrowing could exceed 2 per cent of GDP this year, but the NESC said that the government should be prepared to borrow right up to the limit, set by EU rules at 3 per cent of GDP, with some possibility of this being exceeded for short periods during a downturn.

The NESC placed particular emphasis on the need to ensure that increased investment and spending yield a strong return to the economy, and said that policy makers and public servants must be prepared to ‘‘deliver’’ on modernisation.

The report is due to be submitted to the government shortly.

Some statistical goodies from the CSO:

Exports unchanged compared to last year

Live Register Claimants

Household Travel

Wholesale Price Index

Some more news on the economics front:

New car sales down 18%

Mortgage lending growth slows to 1992 levels

Dublin Office Rents 12th Highest in the World

Stop with the gloom Ard, you are beginning to sound like I did on P.ie last Summer

youngdan wrote:

Stop with the gloom Ard, you are beginning to sound like I did on P.ie last Summer

Righteo, I'll post more positive stuff tomorrow!

It is getting to the stage where the only day there is no bad news is on Sat or Sun sure enough. Would I be right in this observation. I have seen a lot of talk about keeping up with the Jones etc and people ashamed to admit that they are in difficulty. Is it possible that the government is suffering from the same thing because this 10 billion shortfall announced yesterday on the Indo is alarming. Is this not 10 grand in new taxes for a family of 4. More if you include the fact that many pay no taxes. Are people not doing the simple sum in their heads. The government inaction is going to make it greater when they can no longer ignore it.

LINK

Merrill Lynch leaning on the UK and Irish banks? Or are they really in trouble?

Cactus. Financial articles are such that you have to read between the lines to find it's real meaning. The banks need to raise money by selling new shares to the public. This will not be happy news to the present shareholders because the value of their shares will fall. The warning that is implyed is the effects of the credit crunch are now making it's way down the food chain. If the banks do not raise the money now they may not be able to soon because the new buyers will not have the cash to buy anything soon.
There is a poster on P.ie who seems to have an indepth knowledge of Irish banks and he paints a grim picture. I don't follow them but can only imagine that as the property bubble they will be in trouble. That has been the result when property bubbles burst elsewhere and only Japan in the 80s and Florida in the mid 20s can rival the Irish bubble.

Some more news economic:

Manufacturing sector recovers in April

cactus flower wrote:

LINK

Merrill Lynch leaning on the UK and Irish banks? Or are they really in trouble?

They are: (from today's Breakingnews.ie)

ISEQ sent reeling following B&B profits scare Print
Email+
Share03/06/2008 - 11:25:30
The ISEQ index was sent reeling this morning following yesterday's profit warning from British lender Bradford & Bingley.

Banks across Europe dropped 1% yesterday while Irish traders were closed for the holiday, but on opening Irish shares swiftly plunged by almost 3% and have since been struggling to regain some ground.

By midday the ISEQ stood at 5,960.72 having clawed back a fraction of losses, but banking big guns, who suffered a sever blow, continue to haemorrhage value.

Anglo Irish Bank has tumbled 66c, nearly 8% to €7.74, IL&P slipped 59c to €10.66 while Bank of Ireland fell 59c to €10.66.

AIB also in a downward spiral fell 41c to €12.49.

Well done as I was looking for a link on this. BOI was €18 a share not so long ago - is now a good time to buy bank shares? If I was a share-buying gook ...

On Bloomberg over the weekend they were saying that the American distrust of bank stocks is all down to the bad loans only whereas no one is really looking at the cash flows going around inside in banks at all... (which all looks quite healthy apparently)

The credit crunch means that there is really less there to lend, as a lot of what the banks assumed to have value did not have it.