Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

Johnny Keogh wrote:

Edo wrote:

Our main problem is that our basic cost of living has gone insanely high on the back of the easy credit associated with the domestic boom - how we resolve that will be very interesting.

I agree with you there. Trying to reconcile only one foreign holiday a year after years of two or three holidays a year, is really hard to do.

I have begun to cut back this year. No foreign holiday with the kids. An Oige youth hostels and a rent a cottage down the country this time.

50 Ways To Holiday At Home - SBP Link
In Limerick an Coillte have built some mountain biking areas in a forest - great for the young ones that. Also surfing in Lahinch among other stuff. Far enough away from Dublin for it to be nearly foreign

#2 on that list - the Asgard II is a great experience by all accounts. My girlfriend is a sailor and she went on it a few summers ago.

What kind of trading causes this sort of graph?



Most peculiar

johnfás wrote:

What kind of trading causes this sort of graph?



Most peculiar

What the heck is that, Johnfás?

It's the graph of the Irish Stock Exchange from today. Available at www.ise.ie. What a weird graph though, how did it drop that much, level and then bounce back? Must be some sort of mistake

Right lads and lasses, there's been a goof few economic releases today. Féach ar iad seo:

Inflation down to 3.3%

Overall construction down 14.9%

Within this, the residential output fell 31.4% while civil engineering rose 14%.

That is very interesting Ard Taoiseach: here is part of the CSO report you link to -

The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the HICP, decreased from 3.7% in March to 3.3% in April.

The most notable changes in the year were increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+9.7%), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+8.1%),
Health (+6.2%) and Education (+5.8%). There were decreases in Clothing &
Footwear (-2.8%) and Furnishings, Household Equipment&Routine Household
Maintenance (-1.0%).

The annual rate of inflation for Services was 4.8% in April, while Goods increased
by 3.8% in the year.

The difficulty will be for people on low budgets, who will not be getting advantage from cheaper clothes and flights, but will have to pay more for their food and fuel.

cactus flower wrote:

That is very interesting Ard Taoiseach: here is part of the CSO report you link to -

The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the HICP, decreased from 3.7% in March to 3.3% in April.

The most notable changes in the year were increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+9.7%), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+8.1%),
Health (+6.2%) and Education (+5.8%). There were decreases in Clothing &
Footwear (-2.8%) and Furnishings, Household Equipment&Routine Household
Maintenance (-1.0%).

The annual rate of inflation for Services was 4.8% in April, while Goods increased
by 3.8% in the year.

The difficulty will be for people on low budgets, who will not be getting advantage from cheaper clothes and flights, but will have to pay more for their food and fuel.

Indeed, the squeeze will affect poorer families most. They also depend most on social welfare from pensions to child benefits. They're fixed from the start of the year, so they have only the prospect of an increase in these in the Budget in December as a relief in this regard.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Inflation down to 3.3%

This rate is actually bang on the EU average. This is increasingly occurring. Our inflationary rate is harmonising with EU norms and is far from being the highest. We can move this forward through pay restraint and budgetary discipline to see Ireland's inflation rate consistently below the EU average.

The upper end of the Art Market is still surging ahead. A Paul Henry sold at Christie's in London yesterday for £168,500 stg (+ VAT). The lower end of the market is beginning to bottom out slightly.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Inflation down to 3.3%

This rate is actually bang on the EU average. This is increasingly occurring. Our inflationary rate is harmonising with EU norms and is far from being the highest. We can move this forward through pay restraint and budgetary discipline to see Ireland's inflation rate consistently below the EU average.

ummm.... I hate to be sceptical, but how do we manage that when most of what we import has to come further, using more oil, the price of which is going up....

I was going to say we might use more home produced stuff, but then I had to stop and think: what [i]do we produce? Financial derivatives and telephone advice?
You can't eat that. Cattle ? mm. Has anyone produced a car you can run on peat?

expat girl wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Inflation down to 3.3%

This rate is actually bang on the EU average. This is increasingly occurring. Our inflationary rate is harmonising with EU norms and is far from being the highest. We can move this forward through pay restraint and budgetary discipline to see Ireland's inflation rate consistently below the EU average.

ummm.... I hate to be sceptical, but how do we manage that when most of what we import has to come further, using more oil, the price of which is going up....

I'd imagine alot of the cause for a drop in inflation is (i) shops have been cutting prices due to falling sales... note Brown Thomas having a mid season 25% off sale this weekend and (ii) for shops like Tesco they probably source alot from the UK which means the cost of those products here has reduced a good 10-13% over the past few months.

I'm no economist but that would seem to be a simple explanation. Neither appears sustainable in the long term.

Quote :

[quote="expat girl"][quote="Ard-Taoiseach"][quote="Ard-Taoiseach"]
ummm.... I hate to be sceptical, but how do we manage that when most of what we import has to come further, using more oil, the price of which is going up....

Well, the devil is in the detail; CSO annual figures show
the main changes in the year were increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+9.7%), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+8.1%),
Health (+6.2%) and Education (+5.8%). There were decreases in Clothing &
Footwear (-2.8%) and Furnishings, Household Equipment&Routine Household
Maintenance (-1.0%).

The annual rate of inflation for Services was 4.8% in April, while Goods increased by 3.8% in the year.

Inflation figures take in non-essentials as well as essentials. The prices of the non-essentials will have held steadier as retail spending has dropped and prices are dropped or stabilised to try and move stock on.

The prices of essentials, which is what we are all feeling most, have rocketed, but more so in the last three months - the annual average doesn't reflect the current situation.

As the figures are price based, I don't think the average inflation rate is affected by the volume of sales.

The strength of the euro can't have done any harm.

House prices are I assume included and they have dropped substantially. They is not an item that affects the majority of the population who have not bought a house this year.

Industrial production continues to impress, with a substantial 7% rise in the year to March 2008. If you look to the CSO release, which is linked to here, the graph is firmly upwards in terms of production and turnover.

The manufacturing sector remains strong and contributes to our on-going re-balancing.

* Kildare factory burning - fear for up 300 jobs.

* Receiver appointed to company employing 150 in Cork.

* 250 jobs to go at Guinness.

* I believe there will be an announcement about the winding up of another company in the Irish Times tomorrow. With plenty of unsecured creditors.

Not a great day.

johnfás wrote:

* I believe there will be an announcement about the winding up of another company in the Irish Times tomorrow. With plenty of unsecured creditors.

FURNITURE RETAILER Habitat has closed its shops in Dublin and
Galway due to a "severe" deterioration in sales. The company, which
has a big exposure to the decline of the new homes market, is the
first major retail casualty of the economic downturn.

More than 60 full-time and part-time staff lost their jobs last
night when the company that runs the business, Conai Designs
(Ireland), applied for a voluntary liquidation. Well-known for
minimalist and colourful designs, the chain occupied a prominent
store in Dublin linking Dame Street and Suffolk Street, and had an
outlet in central Galway.

The business closed at 5pm yesterday after a rescue plan
collapsed. "Due to a severe downturn in sales in our Galway and
Dublin stores, it has become impossible to trade through the
subsequent financial difficulties, particularly in light of the
current economic environment," the company said.

Staff were called to a meeting last evening, at which they were
told the stores will not re-open today.

The Irish Times

IKEA may have also had something to do with it.
Habitat have had a long history of previous closures.
They sell some good stuff, but essentially you can only charge so much for flat pack.

I would think that the furniture retail trade is feeling a big squeeze from IKEA, fewer newer houses and tight purses combined.

Habitat's decision to sell furniture out of expensive city centre locations with no on-site collection facility was also essentially outdated and out of kilter with their 'modern' image.

I am sorry about people losing their jobs. I wonder who will occupy that big shop?

Some pulse-taking of the Irish economy:

Building sector index falls from 36.6 to 34.4

Small Business in Ireland 2008(warning: large file!)

It would not surprise me if less than 1000 houses were built next year by the private sector.

cactus flower wrote:

johnfás wrote:

What kind of trading causes this sort of graph?



Most peculiar

What the heck is that, Johnfás?

It took them 2 hours to change the pen ?

Some of the economic news making the head-lines today:

Job vacancies decline from 10 to 7%

Households' finances worsened in 2007

LINK

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Some of the economic news making the head-lines today:

Job vacancies decline from 10 to 7%

Households' finances worsened in 2007

Two words...... energy and prices

Fix the rising cost of energy and the economy will be back on track... we still have all our old advantages. Someone with a brain in the Govt needs to figure out that energy costs are going to be the alpha and omega of economic growth (or, rather, lack of it) and start accelerating the switchover from fossil fuel dependancy. Hopefully Eamon Ryan is on track, I hope he will have Lenihan's support

Was talking to a financial type yesterday.... this person used to be a sunny optimist, but that's been gone a year. They reckon even our 5% measure is an underestimate of Europe wide inflation, when all things are considered, and that we'll really be in the deep brown when the ESB, Bord Gais and all the British utilities hike their prices in the autumn... although no doubt the Brits will use their creative accounting skills to keep their official figures under 3%....lemme guess, they'll put housing costs back IN and take energy costs OUT

Some data which has just been published by the CSO:

Building sector employment down 11.7%

Livestock Survey

Your pessimism is approaching realism