Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

tags: At Greatest Risk of Default in EU / 4% + Contraction forecast this year - CB / Economic Recovery Talks Collapse - 3rd February - Banks to delay home repossessions for upto a year Capital Flight has begun - €10bn gone in 7 days The Prospect of Default


I thought I'd set this thread up as an overall umbrella thread for the discussion of the vital statistics of the Irish economy as they are released. I'm thinking mostly CSO reports and on economic research papers by IMD, The World Bank, EIU and so on.

This thread can be split into "Irish Inflation Watch", "Irish Employment Watch", "Irish GDP/GNP/GNI Watch" etc. as the discussion grows in length.

Remember, keep on topic.

In today's news, industrial production is up 0.9% on an annual basis.

And inflation is at 3.7%, 5%, if mortgages are included.

Any other releases?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

I thought I'd set this thread up as an overall umbrella thread for the discussion of the vital statistics of the Irish economy as they are released. I'm thinking mostly CSO reports and on economic research papers by IMD, The World Bank, EIU and so on.

This thread can be split into "Irish Inflation Watch", "Irish Employment Watch", "Irish GDP/GNP/GNI Watch" etc. as the discussion grows in length.

Remember, keep on topic.

In today's news, industrial production is up 0.9% on an annual basis.

And inflation is at 3.7%, 5%, if mortgages are included.

Any other releases?

The price of a loaf of bread up 20%

Linked that there for you, cactus, I also want links to points on this thread

Building-sector PMI at 4-month high

Shopping centre foot-fall down 2.1%

Building sector companies register 11.1% fall in employment levels

Irish visits abroad up 13% in Q4 2007

Irish M&A market flat

And you're up to date with Ard-Taoiseach!

The economy is fawlty. Your spelling is faulty

youngdan wrote:

The economy is fawlty. Your spelling is faulty

Have you any links to how the Irish economy is performing, youngdan?

Here's the Spring IIB/Chartered Accountant business sentiment survey.

All I know Ard is what I am reading on the RTE website. The rosy outlook of government economists and ccountants remind me of the bear stearns chairman saying things were great and the company no longer existed within the week.

Business start-ups down 20%

ISME confidence falls

Any other indicators published?

. Something on the news about end to mortgage relief or property tax. I am screwed . Have to check this out...

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

. Something on the news about end to mortgage relief or property tax. I am screwed . Have to check this out...

The OECD thinks the govt is too generous wrt mortgage interest relief and is advising the DoF to phase out/ease these fiscal bonuses for home-owners. Relax, the DoF will simply smile to the Parisian economic mandarins and then forget the lion's share of their recommendations.

I'm actually quite sanguine about these international reports. They recognise our problems, and we have many, but there's a great sense that we can ride them out. If another economy was facing the challenges that Ireland does, they'd be in a far worse state.

Ok. Feel better now. I wish RTE wouldn't be so dramatic with headlines.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Ok. Feel better now. I wish RTE wouldn't be so dramatic with headlines.

Once you understand that most of the RTÉ Economics staff have the numerical and statistical literacy of a two-year old, everything else makes sense. I advise you to ignore the rubbish spouted over the air-waves and get straight to the horse's mouth(usually, the CSO). Read the figures for yourself and the situation will become clear. The amount of nonsense I've endured while listening to business/ecnomics bulletins is equal to another full thread.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

. Something on the news about end to mortgage relief or property tax. I am screwed . Have to check this out...

Anyone who has followed the British housing market will remember that the Thatcherite property boom went to bust when mortgage interest relief was cut, at a point in time when the market had already flattened out. A generation went into negative equity and many engineers and architects never worked again: it took the market 5-6 years to recover and they drifted into other jobs.

There is virtually nothing being built in Ireland at the moment in the private market. One might think that Government would see this as an opportunity (with low tenders as builders compete for the work) to rectify the shortage of social housing and housing for single people and the elderly. Instead they have left the local authorities without land or finance for housing. At the same time we have a baby boom and strong household formation. The empty houses people are talking about are mainly tax-incentivised housing in a bog in Leitrim.

I stand over my previous posts that there will be a serious housing shortage in a few years time.

Irish overseas travel up 11% in February while there's been significant growth in people coming to Ireland from Other Areas(38%).

The 400 jobs in Westmeath have been saved! Yes! The customers are putting in new orders and the company will be staying put.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Irish overseas travel up 11% in February while there's been significant growth in people coming to Ireland from Other Areas(38%).

More f***ing asylum seekers - and you reckon this is good Ard!!

kn wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Irish overseas travel up 11% in February while there's been significant growth in people coming to Ireland from Other Areas(38%).

More f***ing asylum seekers - and you reckon this is good Ard!!

Asylum seekers? I don't think you can prove that, kn.

Big External Trade data released today. The release can be read here!

Exports down 4%.

Imports down 6%.

Overall, quite encouraging. National Income(Y)=Consumption+Investment+Government Spending+(Exports-Imports). This means the (Exports-Imports) component is rising strongly at the moment. Exports have recovered from their December blip and with industrial orders and industrial production doing well, we should see further rises in exports.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Value of retail sales up 3.2% in February

Hang on.. that's the value figure, not the volume figure. So higher turnover on lower volume sales ?

Does that not point to high inflation and pressure on jobs ?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Value of retail sales up 3.2% in February

The volume fell but the value rose?

First fall in Retail Sales since January 2004

The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 0.1% in February 2008 compared to February 2007 which is the first year-on-year fall in Retail Sales since January 2004. There was a monthly decrease of 1.9%. If Motor Trades are excluded there was an annual increase of 2.3% and the monthly change was –0.3%.

The value of retail sales increased by 3.2% in February 2008 compared to February 2007 and decreased by 1.3% in the month. However, if Motor Trades are excluded, the annual increase was 5.9% and the monthly change was +0.4%.

People are buying less but better stuff or different class of stuff?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Value of retail sales up 3.2% in February

Hang on.. that's the value figure, not the volume figure. So higher turnover on lower volume sales ?

Does that not point to high inflation and pressure on jobs ?

It must do. The price of goods sold must have risen by about 3.3% so as to arrive at that figure. Bear in mind that motor sales are very volatile with the VRT changes affecting sales. I'm not taking motor sales figures seriously until July. One of the first things about Macroeconomics is never make too much out of one month's figures. Let's wait and see.

Ard. It you were around on Black Tuesday, you would be the one jumping up onto the skyscrapers. If imports are down it means the Irish people have less money to spend on imports. Bearing in mind that oil prices would have increased imports it is even more striking. Exports being down speaks for itself. The real estate market here crashed about a year ahead of there so these headlines are in ye're future. House sales were lowest since 1970 and the price drop from last month(not year) was over 6%.

The silence of both government and people on the sinking economic sands under our feet is resounding. When will almighty ruckshuns break out? Bread riots in Crumlin?