Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

They said 20 billion might be their bad debt, they also said that they would not need to be recapitalised to anything near that

johnfás wrote:

They said 20 billion might be their bad debt, they also said that they would not need to be recapitalised to anything near that

Well we're down 8 or 9 billen in the budget this year and the same or was it 13 billun next year - that looks like over 20 billan to me. Or maybe I've my political budgetting all wrong.

The 20 billion referred to the total potential bad debt of the banks. However, the banks would not need to be recapitalised to the order of their total bad debt. For a start it is unlikely that all banks would be recapitalised and secondly they would have to absorb some of the losses themselves over a period.

That said, it would be extremely expensive. Probably a bit under 10 billion.

Auditor #9 wrote:

gamblers-going-under-a-different-name.

Well put.
Except maybe it should be noted that they have been shown to be particularly ungifted gamblers.

Auditor #9 wrote:

The creation of work and the reskilling of young lads recently let off would also be invaluable - there's going to be suicides as a result of poverty and unemployment but let's hope for riots instead - that way someone might get the message.

This hasn't been spoken about much, maybe because it sounds sexist?
All of the recently unemployed I know are male. Meanwhile, their wives and girlfriends are paying the mortgage, and having to put off parenthood. I've heard stories of female nurses begging for overtime because their partner is unemployed. Since the dawn of time, men have been providers from outside the home. Those who go out to hunt, go out to bring back food and money.
Now the women are.
This is going to cause depression and a feeling of uselessness amongst young men.

Something is puzzling me.... the Guardian was listing the public debt of various of the G20 on the weekend... UK 1.2 trn (probably double that including PFI, which the figures did not), Canada 900 bn, US 8.4 trn. These figures were normalised to sterling or dollars in all cases (can't remember which)
Now the populations of those countries are 60mill, 33-35 mill and about 320 mill respectively. Now that means, 20000, 27272, and 26250 in debt per capita. Now let us add in ireland...60 billion max in public debt this year and 4.5 million people. That is 13333 per person, convert to sterling at 1.25 and you still only get 16666 per capita. Still a lot, but not in comparison with the above. Bank recaps to be done with the pension fund, so won't massively increase public debt???

So answer me this; if the UK and US are muttering on about STIMULUS packages, why are we on about cuts??? They have far HIGHER per capita debt.

To be honest, facing into peak oil, I think ourselves and the Canucks may have it right... cut now and save Govt money as the future WILL be worse... and if you are going to spend, spend on alternative energy, insulation and electrified transport schemes.

Very, very confused..... are the UK and US about to do the economic equivalent of shooting themselves in the head?? And why then are they muttering on about ourselves having trouble borrowing?? It appears the Tories at least are getting cold feet about stimulus packages, and I have to say for once I agree with them....auggghh.

*** expat girl post above

Yes good point eoin, it does sound sexist but from my personal experience it seems to be younglads who are suffering or getting let go but there's no question that it's both males and females. I suppose the shockwave is hitting the men first because it's the predominantly and traditionally male-oriented industries that are getting hit first but it won't be long before that's endemic - hopefully not though, I suppose.

Men are less inclined to take part-time work as I'm guessing women are too and I blame this on a culture we have among ourselves that is the tip of a large iceberg of snobbery and prejudice and other self-deteating emotions, feelings and behaviour that we will hopefully see change over the next while.

I'd like to see a transition to a more equitable and at the same time more flexible, job-sharing and less hierarchy-driven employment culture. I've met people around Europe who are in their mid to late thirties and they do not imprison themselves with the quest for a permanent job for the rest of their lives. They work to live - they do anything, take some time off and travel, get education, get some more work, more education or travel as the fit takes them.

Sure, if you want to settle down get a mortgage, pursue a career in examining tissue oncology, buy a Nissan Micra and look for a partner to make a nest in then that's available to you too of course.

The levels of depression and lack of direction among young males is deserving of a thread in its own right.

Anyone watching the news ... totally depressing ...

Job losses?

johnfás wrote:

Job losses?

She said "It is believed that 100,000 have already left the country"; IBEC on there saying it's going down big style, Irish Times laying off people; my clutch is probably dead too.

From the Pin I just read that the Dow went below 8000 - they're calling tomorrow Black Thursday already. Johnfás I think I might join you in the prayers soon. People will have to start pulling together properly on this now.

Back to monoculture, mikado biscuits and red lemonade is it?

johnfás wrote:

Back to monoculture, mikado biscuits and red lemonade is it?

OK, I'm making a new month's resolution - no reading the Pin, no listening to Alex Jones on the end of the world channel - simpler times ahead perhaps ?

Have you seen any PFOs yet johnfás ?

johnfás wrote:

Back to monoculture, mikado biscuits and red lemonade is it?

I like red lemonade. Really, it wasn't so bad.

Used to have red lemonade alot at my Granny's house, I liked it too. I don't remember the 80's, I was 5 when they ended... I am the despised generation that has never known it terribly bad...

I was 8 to 18 during the 80s and in school of course which is why it is so disgusting a memory for a lot of people of my age group.

Big long dole queues I recall. My father was made unemployed in the 80s and he never really got a decent job after that. He was a bit too old when the upturn came again - he did work though afterwards.

johnfás wrote:

Used to have red lemonade alot at my Granny's house, I liked it too. I don't remember the 80's, I was 5 when they ended... I am the despised generation that has never known it terribly bad...

Despise despise. Heck, I was 5 at the end of the Sixties. I had my first red lemonade in Connemara, at a sibin that has long ago disappeared. It was one dirty room with a bench all round. I sat outside with an auld fella who was a shepherd (actually wearing a sheepskin, and speaking some strange language), looking up at the mountains.

Auditor #9 wrote:

My father was made unemployed in the 80s and he never really got a decent job after that. He was a bit too old when the upturn came again - he did work though afterwards.

That is one of the sad aspects of recessions, skills lost, lives made less useful.

DOW down 5% percent, New Zealand opening down a few percent. Does it really matter any more what happens to the ISEQ? What is sad about this is that even those in secure employment catch fright. We over react in bubbles and do the same in dips. We make the problem worse than it is. The recession feeds on fear. We must be a good year and a half into this already. Hopefully we will soon get a clearer picture of the shape of things to come and once again start to plan ahead with some clarity.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Have you seen any PFOs yet johnfás ?

What are PFOs?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Have you seen any PFOs yet johnfás ?

What are PFOs?

You never got a PFO ? Maybe it's a thing of the eighties or moreso the early nineties when people actually applied for jobs.

PFO - job rejection letter - Please Fock Off

Auditor #9 wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Have you seen any PFOs yet johnfás ?

What are PFOs?

You never got a PFO ? Maybe it's a thing of the eighties or moreso the early nineties when people actually applied for jobs.

PFO - job rejection letter - Please Fock Off

I see Auditor. I thought that you were talking about PFIs or something.

I agree Squire, it is all wrong when people's talents and abilities aren't being used. Its worst for production line workers, because when their product goes, their skill is no use for anything else, and they are competing for jobs with hundreds or thousands of people just like themselves. That is why something should be done about car workers. Three million unemployed car workers is a hopeless predicament that would destroy whole cities. They have to put some kind of urgent plan in place to make new products and train people to make them, whether energy efficient cars or tidal turbines.

Volks Wagen. Not just a car. An economic injection.

Cactus

If the government had any sense they would be thinking along the lines of major public works. They need the type of scheme that is labour intensive. Forest planting in Wicklow, lots of small hydro schemes etc. They need to get on with it or they are going to end up with a lot of unemployed people extra cost and no benifit. Also they need to look at imports and slap hefty tax on products that can be produced at home. I am sure they can think of ways of doing this that can't immediately be challenged if they put their devious minds to it. If you are going to go down may as well go down fighting.

Squire wrote:

Cactus

If the government had any sense they would be thinking along the lines of major public works. They need the type of scheme that is labour intensive. Forest planting in Wicklow, lots of small hydro schemes etc. They need to get on with it or they are going to end up with a lot of unemployed people extra cost and no benifit. Also they need to look at imports and slap hefty tax on products that can be produced at home. I am sure they can think of ways of doing this that can't immediately be challenged if they put their devious minds to it. If you are going to go down may as well go down fighting.

That's the spirit - there could be 400,000 on the dole this time next year if the economy keeps shedding jobs at 11,000 per month. Labour intensive and agricultural jobs would be ideal - they could try to cultivate algae and press the oil out of it - what have we to lose ? We could incentivise seaweed production of oil - what's there to stop us besides the strange low price of oil now ?

I like the forests idea - it's simple, useful, goes some way to restoring forest cover as a natural benefit but it also has obvious industrial and other uses.

http://www.independent.ie/business/technology/first-wooden-computer-in-biodegradable-breakthrough-1546904.html - Irish company


What's stopping us from implenting this kind of thing ? Free market orthodoxy shite ? McWilliams and McGaughy were on about the exact same thing on Prime Time.

Not looking good -

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/mhidqlcweycw/

I'm not sure if the Finance Bill details have been linked here yet -

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1015316.shtml