Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

There you have month 1 and 11 to go. 3.7 billion in taxes. My prediction of 30 billion is on the cards. A figure of 30 is so bad that it probably is not even seen as a possibility by the hacheroos.

The hacks are in total and utter denial and they spent even more this year than last. They too are in a world of their own

Aragon wrote:

Gilmore pretty much savaged Cowen who looked as if he was hearing these ideas for the first time and wondering he hadn't thought of them himself. Both Kenny and Gilmore are right that the absence of detail in the announcement is infuriating.

The pension levy is going to raze peopl'e incomes. Cowen now giving details.

Person on 45K will be paying an extra 4250 pa - that's the midpoint of 6.8% on the sliding scale

3.8% lowest rate on salaries of 15K and over - up to 9% for people on 300K.

Astonishingly, people in the private sector are exempt from these levies, if I understand what I've heard correctly.

They are not Levies, they are a small contribution to their very lavish public service pension

The exchequer is down by nearly 1bn on this time last year - I'm going to assume it'll be down by around 12 bn at the end of the year again ? Is all that factored into those figures? Cowen said that 4bn was factored into the figures.

youngdan wrote:

There you have month 1 and 11 to go. 3.7 billion in taxes. My prediction of 30 billion is on the cards. A figure of 30 is so bad that it probably is not even seen as a possibility by the hacheroos.

The hacks are in total and utter denial and they spent even more this year than last. They too are in a world of their own

Time to stump up Dan, I'll have 100 Euro with you that in comes in closer to 37 billion than 30 billion.

Auditor #9 wrote:

The exchequer is down by nearly 1bn on this time last year - I'm going to assume it'll be down by around 12 bn at the end of the year again ? Is all that factored into those figures? Cowen said that 4bn was factored into the figures.

They're down short of 20%, but when you take in account that we're right in it now whereas the downturn only just got started last January, we should see the difference come down to about 10% as the year goes on.

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

Gilmore pretty much savaged Cowen who looked as if he was hearing these ideas for the first time and wondering he hadn't thought of them himself. Both Kenny and Gilmore are right that the absence of detail in the announcement is infuriating.

The pension levy is going to raze peopl'e incomes. Cowen now giving details.

Person on 45K will be paying an extra 4250 pa - that's the midpoint of 6.8% on the sliding scale

3.8% lowest rate on salaries of 15K and over - up to 9% for people on 300K.

Astonishingly, people in the private sector are exempt from these levies, if I understand what I've heard correctly.

They are not Levies, they are a small contribution to their very lavish public service pension

Tonys, that is an insult to the thousands of hard pressed families that will be devastated by these bills.

MOD Aragon, I've removed the rest of this post for consideration. Kate P

The disingenuousness of the unions is staggering. I can't quite come to terms with it. What hideous disrespect to show those who pay their subs - to show every man, woman and child in this country.

The 1.4bn cut will go ahead; the unions won't - apparently - fight it, judging by the tone of what I've been hearing all day. They wouldn't agree it and what they've done is just as bad as any palmgreaser.

Gilmore and Kenny (Gilmore less so) were dire. They had nothing to say. Richard Bruton couldn't tell Mary Wilson just now one single other cut they would have made. I am sickened.

That sounds like a wonderfull bet. You are at 3.7 billion with 11 months to go but I am betting on the figures getting worse. Let us clarify what we are talking about. We are talking tax revenue of whatever sourse. If rates are introduced they too are included. Whatever tax they can dream up is included. What is not included is what are called other capital income. So if they sell off aer lingus, cia, esb or the M50 that is not included.

The figure is the midway of 30 and 37 billion or 33.5 billion in tax revenue. I am on for 100 euros.

youngdan wrote:

That sounds like a wonderfull bet. You are at 3.7 billion with 11 months to go but I am betting on the figures getting worse. Let us clarify what we are talking about. We are talking tax revenue of whatever sourse. If rates are introduced they too are included. Whatever tax they can dream up is included. What is not included is what are called other capital income. So if they sell off aer lingus, cia, esb or the M50 that is not included.

The figure is the midway of 30 and 37 billion or 33.5 billion in tax revenue. I am on for 100 euros.

bet on so.

Aragon wrote:

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

Gilmore pretty much savaged Cowen who looked as if he was hearing these ideas for the first time and wondering he hadn't thought of them himself. Both Kenny and Gilmore are right that the absence of detail in the announcement is infuriating.

The pension levy is going to raze peopl'e incomes. Cowen now giving details.

Person on 45K will be paying an extra 4250 pa - that's the midpoint of 6.8% on the sliding scale

3.8% lowest rate on salaries of 15K and over - up to 9% for people on 300K.

Astonishingly, people in the private sector are exempt from these levies, if I understand what I've heard correctly.

They are not Levies, they are a small contribution to their very lavish public service pension

Tonys, that is an insult to the thousands of hard pressed families that will be devastated by these bills.

Regardless of how they feel about it, it's true anyway and if they're devastated by this, imagine how the average private sector worker feels when they start 20% below the average public sector employee, generally don't have a pension at all and their job & future is on the line right now.

Kate P wrote:

The disingenuousness of the unions is staggering. I can't quite come to terms with it. What hideous disrespect to show those who pay their subs - to show every man, woman and child in this country.

The 1.4bn cut will go ahead; the unions won't - apparently - fight it, judging by the tone of what I've been hearing all day. They wouldn't agree it and what they've done is just as bad as any palmgreaser.

Gilmore and Kenny (Gilmore less so) were dire. They had nothing to say. Richard Bruton couldn't tell Mary Wilson just now one single other cut they would have made. I am sickened.

I dont know what this post means Kate - what is it about the unions you are annoyed by?

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

Gilmore pretty much savaged Cowen who looked as if he was hearing these ideas for the first time and wondering he hadn't thought of them himself. Both Kenny and Gilmore are right that the absence of detail in the announcement is infuriating.

The pension levy is going to raze peopl'e incomes. Cowen now giving details.

Person on 45K will be paying an extra 4250 pa - that's the midpoint of 6.8% on the sliding scale

3.8% lowest rate on salaries of 15K and over - up to 9% for people on 300K.

Astonishingly, people in the private sector are exempt from these levies, if I understand what I've heard correctly.

They are not Levies, they are a small contribution to their very lavish public service pension

Tonys, that is an insult to the thousands of hard pressed families that will be devastated by these bills.

Regardless of how they feel about it, it's true anyway and if they're devastated by this, imagine how the average private sector worker feels when they start 20% below the average public sector employee, generally don't have a pension at all and their job & future is on the line right now.

Private sector workers are not having to pay this levy. So they can shut up for starters. You are pedalling gross mininformation and distortion when you claim pulbic service pensions are some sort of luxury. Public sector workers PAY for them, they're not free by any means. The discrepancy between private employer pay practices and the hard won employment securities of the public sector leads inescapably to acknowleding the need for better and more effective unionisation of the private sector - something the ghouls at IBEC have been waging vicious war on for as long as that ghastly organisation has existed.

What defenders of this rape of working people refuse to get their heads around is that the vast bulk of the wealth generated in this country is concentrated in a very small number of hands. It's disgusting to witness the viciousness of people here who think nothing of arguing for the enforced impoverishment of innocent people without a murmur in the direciton of those can and should pay for this mess. Enraging.

Aragon wrote:

Kate P wrote:

The disingenuousness of the unions is staggering. I can't quite come to terms with it. What hideous disrespect to show those who pay their subs - to show every man, woman and child in this country.

The 1.4bn cut will go ahead; the unions won't - apparently - fight it, judging by the tone of what I've been hearing all day. They wouldn't agree it and what they've done is just as bad as any palmgreaser.

Gilmore and Kenny (Gilmore less so) were dire. They had nothing to say. Richard Bruton couldn't tell Mary Wilson just now one single other cut they would have made. I am sickened.

I dont know what this post means Kate - what is it about the unions you are annoyed by?

The unions had nothing to offer at the table - they've made that clear from the beginning. They held up progress for weeks with no intention of giving anything. They can go back to those whom they are supposed to represent and say that they haven't given in. Yet, there hasn't been one peep of annoyance from them that the government is going ahead with something they patently didn't want. Because they know the levies are inevitable and have known it all along but have disingenuously tried to pretend to their members that there would be no movement.

What has happened is that they've sacrificed the integrity of unionisation in the same way that councillors walk out of the room so as not to vote on issues that won't please their constituents, but knowing that their absence won't be counted in the vote. If I'm reading this correctly - and I'm open to correction if I'm not, the public sector unions have basically prostituted partnership and union integrity. Does that make sense? I'm quite tired, having been up since very early. Will start again in the morning if I'm not making some kind of sense.

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

tonys wrote:

Aragon wrote:

Gilmore pretty much savaged Cowen who looked as if he was hearing these ideas for the first time and wondering he hadn't thought of them himself. Both Kenny and Gilmore are right that the absence of detail in the announcement is infuriating.

The pension levy is going to raze peopl'e incomes. Cowen now giving details.

Person on 45K will be paying an extra 4250 pa - that's the midpoint of 6.8% on the sliding scale

3.8% lowest rate on salaries of 15K and over - up to 9% for people on 300K.

Astonishingly, people in the private sector are exempt from these levies, if I understand what I've heard correctly.

They are not Levies, they are a small contribution to their very lavish public service pension

Tonys, that is an insult to the thousands of hard pressed families that will be devastated by these bills.

Regardless of how they feel about it, it's true anyway and if they're devastated by this, imagine how the average private sector worker feels when they start 20% below the average public sector employee, generally don't have a pension at all and their job & future is on the line right now.

Private sector workers are not having to pay this levy. So they can shut up for starters. You are pedalling gross mininformation and distortion when you claim pulbic service pensions are some sort of luxury. Public sector workers PAY for them, they're not free by any means.
That’s not true, they pay nothing like the cost of their pension, we, the private sector workers pay for the pension of public sector workers.The discrepancy between private employer pay practices and the hard won employment securities of the public sector leads inescapably to acknowleding the need for better and more effective unionisation of the private sector -
A not unexpected solution from yourself, we have 20% of workers in this state looking forward to pensions that neither they nor their employers can fund and your solution is to give the same pension to the remaining 80% of workers. It would be funny if you weren’t serious. something the ghouls at IBEC have been waging vicious war on for as long as that ghastly organisation has existed.

What defenders of this rape of working people refuse to get their heads around is that the vast bulk of the wealth generated in this country is concentrated in a very small number of hands. It's disgusting to witness the viciousness of people here who think nothing of arguing for the enforced impoverishment of innocent people without a murmur in the direciton of those can and should pay for this mess. Enraging.

Why should it be 'funny' to ensure that all workers are paid a decent pension at the end of their working lives? Becuase it would eat into the repulsive amounts of profits made by people like Tony O' Reilly? That bastard alone, a single human being, made 2billion euro of profit from the sale of oil and gas exploration licences that properly belonged to the Irish people. An ironic sum of money in the present circumstances. Licences which cost him a derisory 10K euro. This is the sickness that you and your ilk represent. You'll be back here next with your usual blandishments and excuses for this obnoxious greed, delighted to see so many people thrown into misery. You disgust me.

If you are so concerned about the rights of public sector workers, argue for decent unionisatin to protect them from the unfairness many employers inflict on them. You hate them just as much as you hate public sector workers, of course. You just use them to make yourself sound egalitarian. Private sector workers DO NOT subsidise public sector workers pensions by the way.

Some lower paid people who are untaxed and who contribute to their public sector pensions don't get any top up and they are still going to have to pay the levy. The public service is a hierarchy, and since the beginning of the 2000s, the division between lower grades and management has been exacerbated. The top of the scale is on crazy money and a high proportion are poorly qualified and have never had management training. A cull would be a good idea.

There is one way to sort things out fairly and that is income tax, paid on all earnings including pensions. with a new tax band for the rich. Some wealthy people were paying no tax at all over the last few years: some of these are in the top 5% that own nearly half the wealth.

Is Cowen betting on the majority of the population being happy to scapegoat public sector workers?

Its almost as bad as the Brits striking against the Italians.


Edit - who do you think does subsidise public sector pensions Aragon? My understanding is that all public service costs comes from general taxation. Most of that is paid by the private sector.

What they should do if they want to save money in a better manner:

*close off tax reliefs to property to widen that tax base.
*privatise or part-sell shares in Bord Gáis, ESB and the DAA.
*cut ministerial pay and pensions by 20%.
*cut Supreme and High Court justices' pay and pensions by 20%.
*re-negotiate the tenders on capital projects across the country. This would yield hundreds of millions in cash.
*replace stamp duty with a property tax. Stamp duty is economically inefficient while a property tax raises money while not being a drag on the tradeability of the market.
*cut consultancy and marketing down to as low as possible.
*cut public-sector pay by about 5%.
*scrap the "decentralisation" project.
*sell off the evoting machines.
*suspend the horse and hound funding for 2 years.
*Implement a carbon tax with a view to reducing PAYE, CT and so on to ensure it is revenue neutral.
*do an energy audit on all government properties to extract heating and electricity savings.
*sell off any excess property to generate cash.
*do not index the tax bands for the next 3 years.


There's a few billion in savings there.

Its not only public sector workers who get pension perks.

THe pension situation in Ireland is grossly inequitable. People on high incomes who could afford to buy pensions have taken advantage of enormous tax benefits to pile vast amounts into pensions while some people who have worked hard all their lives get a tiny state pension.

Pension contributions are a benefit in kind and of course they could be taxed as part of overall earnings.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

What they should do if they want to save money in a better manner:

*close off tax reliefs to property to widen that tax base.
*privatise or part-sell shares in Bord Gáis, ESB and the DAA.
*cut ministerial pay and pensions by 20%.
*cut Supreme and High Court justices' pay and pensions by 20%.
*re-negotiate the tenders on capital projects across the country. This would yield hundreds of millions in cash.
*replace stamp duty with a property tax. Stamp duty is economically inefficient while a property tax raises money while not being a drag on the tradeability of the market.
*cut consultancy and marketing down to as low as possible.
*cut public-sector pay by about 5%.
*scrap the "decentralisation" project.
*sell off the evoting machines.
*suspend the horse and hound funding for 2 years.
*Implement a carbon tax with a view to reducing PAYE, CT and so on to ensure it is revenue neutral.
*do an energy audit on all government properties to extract heating and electricity savings.
*sell off any excess property to generate cash.
*do not index the tax bands for the next 3 years.


There's a few billion in savings there.

I think the ESB selling-off could be shooting ourselves in both legs - how do you know it wouldn't end up like the Eircom extravaganza?

This is the point I'd like to focus on for the sake of Machine Nation and for the love of the children who will be born into this country after we're gone - why the hell are we not pushing the bejesus out of ANY route that'll give us cheaper electricity?????????????

If you're going to build a house then you should build good foundations - we're currently building our house of cards ON A BOG. Bogs are treacherous and you can fall in and die and be turned into a mummy. Why aren't we building a good foundation of resources in this country replete with resources of a natural nature????????

I've a dirty sneaking suspicion of the ESB and I've a firm belief it needs to be attacked by all parties Left Right Up Down; they are monopolising energy production in this country where energy underlies all other industries. The price should be attacked as aggresively as the road building programme attacked the road deficit. We can live without roads though.

I've a serious interest in the Green Party but I fear that they will allow a monopoly to continue which should be aggressively broken in two halves. The country needs to take Eirgrid and make the powerstations private. The price needs to be monitored by the CER and Government must put continuous downward pressure on the price.

Otherwise a nation is losing out to a small coterie of overpaid, electric machine-men.

Auditor #9 wrote:

I think the ESB selling-off could be shooting ourselves in both legs - how do you know it wouldn't end up like the Eircom extravaganza?

eircom was an over-valued company being sold into a market bubble, a lot of what happened there has to do with the witless management's shock after the collapse of the share price. They sold off their most valuable and profitable subsidiary, ie, Eircell and then surrendered themselves(with the tacit support of the CWU) to private equity firms. Furthermore, the Government failed to ensure that they lived up to commitments relating to broadband provision and infrastructure investment. If you're going to blame anyone about the eircom situation, you should blame the management, unions and Government.

ESB is trading in what is one of the most nationalised and protected electricity markets in Europe. The industry is excessively dominated by one provider which could do with the rigours of the private sector to improve performance. It's also a very quick way of accessing cash by the government. A sale of 25% of ESB would net several hundred million euro which would go a long way towards meeting the gaping budget deficits we are experiencing.

The only other ways we can bridge these deficits is devastating the potential growth of GDP and precipitating a ruinous brain-drain by raising taxes or brutalising the public service by cutting its funding by up to half. Privatisation/part-selling of semi-states is preferable.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

I think the ESB selling-off could be shooting ourselves in both legs - how do you know it wouldn't end up like the Eircom extravaganza?

eircom was an over-valued company being sold into a market bubble, a lot of what happened there has to do with the witless management's shock after the collapse of the share price. They sold off their most valuable and profitable subsidiary, ie, Eircell and then surrendered themselves(with the tacit support of the CWU) to private equity firms. Furthermore, the Government failed to ensure that they lived up to commitments relating to broadband provision and infrastructure investment. If you're going to blame anyone about the eircom situation, you should blame the management, unions and Government.

Is there anyone else we can blame ?

Quote :

ESB is trading in what is one of the most nationalised and protected electricity markets in Europe. The industry is excessively dominated by one provider which could do with the rigours of the private sector to improve performance. It's also a very quick way of accessing cash by the government. A sale of 25% of ESB would net several hundred million euro which would go a long way towards meeting the gaping budget deficits we are experiencing.

OK. I think we have to stop thinking about getting quick money out of certain things..... We could end up in a worse situation where our services don't get upgraded as they should. Wouldn't you agree we're about to buy Eircom back or should ?? It might be a better cash cow than the banks and with only €4bn in debt too. Selling these things, if we must, should mean us putting serious provision in there and pass Laws to protect ourselves if necessary. To hell with Europe if they don't like it.

The likes of ComReg and the CER and others - the EPA perhaps - needed to be melted down and poured into a new mould - the Utilities Regulation Body. They would look at prices almost solely and if the ESB or Eircom wasn't pushing prices downwards towards European Averages then they'd have to be fined I'm afraid. There would be provisions in Laws to take the utility back too without the debt and for the same price in case the prices didn't come down within a certain timeframe. We'd see who'd rip us off then,

Quote :

The only other ways we can bridge these deficits is devastating the potential growth of GDP and precipitating a ruinous brain-drain by raising taxes or brutalising the public service by cutting its funding by up to half. Privatisation/part-selling of semi-states is preferable.

We need to cut basic costs e.g. that of electricity and we need to make it secure. Don't you think a lot could flow from a basic drop in the price of such an indispensable and widely used commodity?

Auditor #9 wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

What they should do if they want to save money in a better manner:

*close off tax reliefs to property to widen that tax base.
*privatise or part-sell shares in Bord Gáis, ESB and the DAA.
*cut ministerial pay and pensions by 20%.
*cut Supreme and High Court justices' pay and pensions by 20%.
*re-negotiate the tenders on capital projects across the country. This would yield hundreds of millions in cash.
*replace stamp duty with a property tax. Stamp duty is economically inefficient while a property tax raises money while not being a drag on the tradeability of the market.
*cut consultancy and marketing down to as low as possible.
*cut public-sector pay by about 5%.
*scrap the "decentralisation" project.
*sell off the evoting machines.
*suspend the horse and hound funding for 2 years.
*Implement a carbon tax with a view to reducing PAYE, CT and so on to ensure it is revenue neutral.
*do an energy audit on all government properties to extract heating and electricity savings.
*sell off any excess property to generate cash.
*do not index the tax bands for the next 3 years.


There's a few billion in savings there.

I think the ESB selling-off could be shooting ourselves in both legs - how do you know it wouldn't end up like the Eircom extravaganza?

This is the point I'd like to focus on for the sake of Machine Nation and for the love of the children who will be born into this country after we're gone - why the hell are we not pushing the bejesus out of ANY route that'll give us cheaper electricity?????????????

If you're going to build a house then you should build good foundations - we're currently building our house of cards ON A BOG. Bogs are treacherous and you can fall in and die and be turned into a mummy. Why aren't we building a good foundation of resources in this country replete with resources of a natural nature????????

I've a dirty sneaking suspicion of the ESB and I've a firm belief it needs to be attacked by all parties Left Right Up Down; they are monopolising energy production in this country where energy underlies all other industries. The price should be attacked as aggresively as the road building programme attacked the road deficit. We can live without roads though.

I've a serious interest in the Green Party but I fear that they will allow a monopoly to continue which should be aggressively broken in two halves. The country needs to take Eirgrid and make the powerstations private. The price needs to be monitored by the CER and Government must put continuous downward pressure on the price.

Otherwise a nation is losing out to a small coterie of overpaid, electric machine-men.

Agree that we need to invest in energy, but privatising? Enron? Half the reason our ESB costs are so high is that prices were pushed up to make it attractive and feasible for privatisation. We need to take a grip on these things and develop them in a planned integrated way. And cof course cut the ESB crazy wages.

cactus

I think that parts of the ESB should be privatised as was the plan by Dempsey and now Ryan. The parts getting sold off would be the power stations, however the Grid in between should remain in State hands.... this should allow a situation where there isn't a monopoly now but rather where you could rent a slot off Eirgrid, set up your windfarm and pump into the grid, advertising your enterprise and selling it competitively.

It sounds good in theory I suppose and may well work for a place as small as Ireland. There's no other way their wages will go down - if you tell them to take less you are effectively saying to them that their product is too expensive. They get 77k per annum - what would be a general cut that they could survive on -10% - 15% - 20% ??? Those lads can afford a 15% pay cut so your electricity should effectively fall by at least that much, 15%.

Or it could surely be price-regulated by comparing to European averages and fines implemented if price is not within a certain band of EU-wide prices...

On the other hand, giving out decent pluggable Smart meters where I could get free of the griping fingers of the ESB would be the solution but WHERE THE HELL ARE THE SMART METERS EAMON.