Latest Poll: [ Red C/SBP ] FG / FF - down all others up - GP/SF/Lab/Ind Govt ? :-)

Squire wrote:

I would have thought that from a strategic point of view that FG and Labour types would be hoping that the Greens did well. The objective should be to decimate FF.

It is clear enough that FG are under performing in a period that has should favour the opposition. The Greens may be necessary in forming an alternative government at some future date and I think they themselves would prefer the alternative.

The Green Party made it explicitly clear that while they were not committing to either Fianna Fáil and the PDs or Fine Gael and Labour, the preference was to join Fine Gael and Labour in coalition. That was not possible with the arithmetic thrown up by the 30th Dáil so the Greens made the perfectly rational choice to then join with Fianna Fáil in government to see at least some of their policies implemented rather than waiting another 5-10 years in the hope that the Dáil's make-up would be just right as by that time it would be too late to begin to implement the Green agenda.

As it happens, the Greens are performing solidly in the opinion polls and have done so ever since entering government while Fianna Fáil are bearing the brunt of the government's less than popular choices. It's very interesting to see that sort of situation develop considering that it was consensus opinion in June 2007 that the Greens would serve only as a mud-guard in the new tricycle coalition of Fianna Fáil, the Greens and the PDs. It seems Fianna Fáil has assumed that duty.

Quote :

It will be a few years yet to an election and plenty of time to dump the current leader and present a 'fresh new face'.

I doubt that. This year's budget will be the toughest to be framed in the history of this State. I wouldn't expect the Greens to vote against it, but I could easily see the Independents and a choice few Fianna Fáil backbenchers to vote against it leading to a collapse in the coalition. With massive cut-backs, Fianna Fáil will have little in the way of constituency-specific goodies to mollify Independents like Lowry and Healy Rae while certain Fianna Fáil TDanna from particularly vulnerable seats may see this as an opportunity to redeem themselves in the eyes of their constituents by standing against unjust cuts.

With thanks to HBAP over yonder: link

FF 22 (-5)
FG 32 (-2)
Lab 24 (+10)!
Gr 4 (--)
SF 9 (+1)
Other 9

MRBI Poll in tomorrow's Irish Times

unaligned wrote:

With thanks to HBAP over yonder: link

FF 22 (-5)
FG 32 (-2)
Lab 24 (+10)!
Gr 4 (--)
SF 9 (+1)

MRBI Poll in tomorrow's Irish Times

Calculated, presumably, before the walkout. Which surely would increase their lot even further?

Is this the first time that Labour have been ahead of Fianna Fail?

unaligned wrote:

Is this the first time that Labour have been ahead of Fianna Fail?

Yes.

Hmm - interesting poll

But lets not go nuts here.

FG have plateaued - not surprising - I cant see them ever getting above 35% - just not possible - We're probably too right wing for many FF voters taste and we still are the auld enemy - tho it is food for thought in regard to Enda position - in the current climate - Richard Bruton would get a far higher personal vote and would probably add a few more% points - hopefully Enda's stepping aside after a decent Euros/Locals is still on the cards - still its consistent and if a GE was called tomorrow - we could have Donald duck as leader and still be in government after it.

Labour - Im impressed - they are the receipents of the public service freak out - the public service naturally have gone to Labour as FG would still be on for the hard medicine. Whether in the real thing Labour would be able to capitalise on this is a good question - unlike FG - their grassroots organisation ,outside a few Dublin constituencies leaves a heck of a lot to be desired - ie over the hill, fossilised with a few young guns - but precious few folks to do the real leg work.

Fianna Fail - well , as I have said elsewhere - are a busted Flush - the markets want them gone, the floating voter wants them gone and now a great deal of their own grassroots want them out too - this Government have been founding completely wanting - and once you lose the trust - its very hard get it back again - sorry. Also the party organisation under Ahern has fallen to bits - you;ll see lots of ambitious young turks at the Ard=fheis and the like - but precious few in the cumanns and even fewer out doing the legwork - now the political climate has changed - its going to be a long road back.

Still and all - I fear it will only harden their resolve to hang together to the bitter end - they'all be building up the pension credits.

Will be interesting to see how consistent this with further polls.

FG down 2. That means Papal Kmight will be arround to explain to everybody that because tomorrow is Friday 13th it really means that FG are going to get 55% of the votes.

Edo wrote:

Hmm - interesting poll

But lets not go nuts here.

Ah, don't be a spoil sport.
Labour passing out Fianna Fáil! That is quite something.
I've no doubt it is down to the Public Service Pension Levy, but what I find interesting is the trend that..
As we've mentioned here before on MN, the old civil war divides are breaking down.

Before now we all assumed that FF could eat babies live on TV, and still get 36% of the vote.