Where do you see the ISEQ trading 1 year from now? i.e. Oct 2009
1000-2000
50%
[ 7 ]
2000-3000
29%
[ 4 ]
3000-4000
7%
[ 1 ]
4000-5000
14%
[ 2 ]
Total Votes : 14
Poll closed
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 5:40 pm
tonys wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
expat girl wrote:
The drop in energy prices is a long term disaster, the prices have dropped SO low that investment in alternatives is slowing dramatically....80bucks a barrel makes most alternatives viable...we're well below that now.
It won't be long but people won't be making decisions on trying out alternatives, they'll just stick with the oil because we'll believe there's so much in the ground it'll never run out.
It mightn't but I doubt it. One day in five years time we could wake up in a world of fans and flying brown stuff.
As the price of oil goes up so too does the reserves of economically recoverable product.
You're saying that more is hedged at higher prices ? So there's always a battery-supply of world fuel is it ? Don't we need to start using the stuff that's left to install the renewable infrastructure future generations will need ? Spending the oil any other way might be folly of a species-endangering nature unless you've faith in nuclear and other althernatives.
Some crowd somewhere will have to make the decision: are we going to pump up an alternative energy bubble now or not ? The sooner we make that decision the sooner the mechanics of it can be worked out so businesses can be set free on making the nuts and bolts. $75 barrels of oil might help.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:19 pm
Auditor #9 wrote:
tonys wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
expat girl wrote:
The drop in energy prices is a long term disaster, the prices have dropped SO low that investment in alternatives is slowing dramatically....80bucks a barrel makes most alternatives viable...we're well below that now.
It won't be long but people won't be making decisions on trying out alternatives, they'll just stick with the oil because we'll believe there's so much in the ground it'll never run out.
It mightn't but I doubt it. One day in five years time we could wake up in a world of fans and flying brown stuff.
As the price of oil goes up so too does the reserves of economically recoverable product.
You're saying that more is hedged at higher prices ? So there's always a battery-supply of world fuel is it ? Don't we need to start using the stuff that's left to install the renewable infrastructure future generations will need ? Spending the oil any other way might be folly of a species-endangering nature unless you've faith in nuclear and other althernatives.
Some crowd somewhere will have to make the decision: are we going to pump up an alternative energy bubble now or not ? The sooner we make that decision the sooner the mechanics of it can be worked out so businesses can be set free on making the nuts and bolts. $75 barrels of oil might help.
No, I'm saying or repeating what some "expert" was saying when oil was $150.00 a barrel. We have 5/10/20 years supply left @ $40.00 a barrel, but @ $200.00 a barrel we have 100 + years supply left. All to do with the economics of recovery, apparently.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:47 pm
tonys wrote:
No, I'm saying or repeating what some "expert" was saying when oil was $150.00 a barrel. We have 5/10/20 years supply left @ $40.00 a barrel, but @ $200.00 a barrel we have 100 + years supply left. All to do with the economics of recovery, apparently.
Ah ... only 41 seconds of Shell commercial below
At some point long before the $200 barrel we could see the flip over to a big interest in renewables though. The number that seems to be bandied around is around 70 dollars. The world population is growing by 1.7 million people per week too .. more demand
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 7:52 pm
tonys wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
tonys wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
expat girl wrote:
The drop in energy prices is a long term disaster, the prices have dropped SO low that investment in alternatives is slowing dramatically....80bucks a barrel makes most alternatives viable...we're well below that now.
It won't be long but people won't be making decisions on trying out alternatives, they'll just stick with the oil because we'll believe there's so much in the ground it'll never run out.
It mightn't but I doubt it. One day in five years time we could wake up in a world of fans and flying brown stuff.
As the price of oil goes up so too does the reserves of economically recoverable product.
You're saying that more is hedged at higher prices ? So there's always a battery-supply of world fuel is it ? Don't we need to start using the stuff that's left to install the renewable infrastructure future generations will need ? Spending the oil any other way might be folly of a species-endangering nature unless you've faith in nuclear and other althernatives.
Some crowd somewhere will have to make the decision: are we going to pump up an alternative energy bubble now or not ? The sooner we make that decision the sooner the mechanics of it can be worked out so businesses can be set free on making the nuts and bolts. $75 barrels of oil might help.
No, I'm saying or repeating what some "expert" was saying when oil was $150.00 a barrel. We have 5/10/20 years supply left @ $40.00 a barrel, but @ $200.00 a barrel we have 100 + years supply left. All to do with the economics of recovery, apparently.
So 5 times the price, 5 times the time left. Which would indicate that people would be using only a fifth of what they would be using. That would spell economic collapse over a long period.
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 8:03 pm
Respvblica wrote:
tonys wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
tonys wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
expat girl wrote:
The drop in energy prices is a long term disaster, the prices have dropped SO low that investment in alternatives is slowing dramatically....80bucks a barrel makes most alternatives viable...we're well below that now.
It won't be long but people won't be making decisions on trying out alternatives, they'll just stick with the oil because we'll believe there's so much in the ground it'll never run out.
It mightn't but I doubt it. One day in five years time we could wake up in a world of fans and flying brown stuff.
As the price of oil goes up so too does the reserves of economically recoverable product.
You're saying that more is hedged at higher prices ? So there's always a battery-supply of world fuel is it ? Don't we need to start using the stuff that's left to install the renewable infrastructure future generations will need ? Spending the oil any other way might be folly of a species-endangering nature unless you've faith in nuclear and other althernatives.
Some crowd somewhere will have to make the decision: are we going to pump up an alternative energy bubble now or not ? The sooner we make that decision the sooner the mechanics of it can be worked out so businesses can be set free on making the nuts and bolts. $75 barrels of oil might help.
No, I'm saying or repeating what some "expert" was saying when oil was $150.00 a barrel. We have 5/10/20 years supply left @ $40.00 a barrel, but @ $200.00 a barrel we have 100 + years supply left. All to do with the economics of recovery, apparently.
So 5 times the price, 5 times the time left. Which would indicate that people would be using only a fifth of what they would be using. That would spell economic collapse over a long period.
No, he was talking at present rates of consumption. He also said possibly as much as 200 years supply. I can't remember his name, but he was the star turn on the subject with Pat Kenny one morning and he seemed to know what he was talking about.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 8:04 pm
A lot of the population growth over the last fifty years has been oil fuelled. The best plan imo for "end of oil" would include an orderly population retreat by birth control. It would be a start if we could get ourselves back in balance with the wild fish population. The chances of that are miniscule as even the Greens tell us we should get ready for resource wars/oops sorry "energy security".
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:23 pm
We need to get rid of artificial insemination. Go back to the old days of bringing the cow to the bull. In my youth I well remember the smiles of contentment that glowed from the faces of these most beautifull of Gods creatures during the fullfillment of the act of procreaction. God did not intend a bulls mickie to be made of stainless steel much less to have a vet's arm up a cows canal when a calf was conceived.
These happy memories came flooding back to me yesterday when purchasing gasoline and milk. If we are to believe scientists(the lads who tell us we are going to die from global warming while my teeth chatter with the cold) then it took millions of years for the gallon of gas to form because a rake of dinosaurs died. The dinosaurs were all muslim because they all decided to die in the same spot I guess one on top of the other. The dinosaurs in Alaska must have had fur coats on them because these cold blooded reptiles were not very good on the ice. Anyway to make a long story short I paid 1.77 US dollars for a gallon of dinosaur juice.
Next I went to get some cow juice. Here am I thinking that even a Twiggy Bovine with a natural and contented sex life should surely be able to deliver a gallon of juice each day. I was not even thinking Dolly Parton output here. To my dismay the cost was 3.98 US dollars for the gallon of cow juice. And we are to love the farmers in Ennis and hate the Arabs. They are in the wrong business.
As always I am optimistic. I see my new car is hitting the streets. A bit of a drop from a 5.7 litre engine but I have to change with the times, bit of a tight squeese.
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:15 pm
Like the look of your new wheels, plenty of room for the rabbit but think a dog would need to travel on the roof.
Bet the politicians now slap a tax on water.
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:22 pm
No doubt the water will be taxed Squire - like CO2 - but should it ?
Ex Fourth Master: Growth
Number of posts : 4226 Registration date : 2008-03-11
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:48 pm
youngdan wrote:
We need to get rid of artificial insemination. Go back to the old days of bringing the cow to the bull. In my youth I well remember the smiles of contentment that glowed from the faces of these most beautifull of Gods creatures during the fullfillment of the act of procreaction. God did not intend a bulls mickie to be made of stainless steel much less to have a vet's arm up a cows canal when a calf was conceived.
These happy memories came flooding back to me yesterday when purchasing gasoline and milk. If we are to believe scientists(the lads who tell us we are going to die from global warming while my teeth chatter with the cold) then it took millions of years for the gallon of gas to form because a rake of dinosaurs died. The dinosaurs were all muslim because they all decided to die in the same spot I guess one on top of the other. The dinosaurs in Alaska must have had fur coats on them because these cold blooded reptiles were not very good on the ice. Anyway to make a long story short I paid 1.77 US dollars for a gallon of dinosaur juice.
Next I went to get some cow juice. Here am I thinking that even a Twiggy Bovine with a natural and contented sex life should surely be able to deliver a gallon of juice each day. I was not even thinking Dolly Parton output here. To my dismay the cost was 3.98 US dollars for the gallon of cow juice. And we are to love the farmers in Ennis and hate the Arabs. They are in the wrong business.
As always I am optimistic. I see my new car is hitting the streets. A bit of a drop from a 5.7 litre engine but I have to change with the times, bit of a tight squeese.
Brilliant Youngdan. I love that paragraph. Dinosaur juice...
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Wed Dec 03, 2008 8:00 pm
Another bad day for ISEQ Financials down to 1270 again. Anglo 70 cents BOI 1.09, Irish Life and Perm 1.43, Allied Irish 2.19.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Wed Dec 03, 2008 8:19 pm
Squire wrote:
Another bad day for ISEQ Financials down to 1270 again. Anglo 70 cents BOI 1.09, Irish Life and Perm 1.43, Allied Irish 2.19.
Anglo at 70 ? At some point those shares will stop being traded won't they ? Ard Taoiseach I think said the ISEQ was rebalanced recently so at this point the penny jars are just being cleaned out. Did Anglo drop because David Drumm, Anglo CEO said the profits were only 600 million or something - down 30 % on last year ?
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Wed Dec 03, 2008 8:26 pm
Still making more money than Citigroup or UBS
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Wed Dec 03, 2008 8:37 pm
johnfás wrote:
Still making more money than Citigroup or UBS
Those crowds are in the red are they ? Anglo also put 500 million aside for bad loans ... bloomberg below. They are trying to get their capital/debt ratios right - up to 8%. Luckily Drumm said he took a cut in salary - that should boost their store of winter nuts significantly. He earned around 3 million last year.
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Plc, Ireland’s third-biggest lender by assets, said full-year profit dropped 33 percent as it put aside 500 million euros ($633 million) in provisions for loan losses.
Net income in the year through Sept. 30 fell to 670 million euros, or 88 cents a share, from 998 million euros, or 133 cents, a year earlier, the Dublin-based lender said in a statement today. The shares fell as profit missed the 1.16 billion-euro median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Anglo Irish is putting aside the 500 million euros, or 0.71 percent of total loans, to reflect the slump in Ireland’s property market, the company said. The country’s government is pushing banks to seek private funding to shore up capital depleted by the global credit crunch and the end of a decade- long real-estate boom.
“It’s quite a whopping provision to take, but it’s recognizing the world we are in,” Chief Executive Officer David Drumm said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The only question, and we haven’t answered it for ourselves, is whether we would accept additional capital externally.”
Anglo Irish slumped 27 cents, or 29 percent, to 67 cents, extending its decline this year to 94 percent. That compares with a 63 percent decline in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index.
Investor Approach
A group of asset managers last week approached Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan about investing in the country’s six biggest banks. The fund managers, who haven’t been identified, made the approach through the Irish Association of Investment Managers and hired Deutsche Bank AG as an adviser.
Any capital injection would have to be “be very cognizant of the impact” on existing investors, Drumm said.
“To get capital up to what is now the good international level is going to require a good couple of billion of euros,” said Alex Potter, a London-based analyst at Collins Stewart with a “hold” rating on Anglo Irish. “On market cap of 700 million euros it means new equity is going to be the vast majority.”
The Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of a company’s ability to withstand loan losses, rose to 6.7 percent from 5.6 percent, the lender said. The bank is looking at “all options” to increase the ratio to about 8 percent, Finance Director Willie McAteer said in a phone interview.
The bank will remain profitable even with the increased loan-loss provisions, McAteer said in a presentation to analysts.
Anglo Irish scrapped its dividend payout, a move already taken by rival lenders Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc, in a bid to conserve capital.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:04 am
How much worse can this actually get, now?? any idea when we will hit the bottom....even in an L shaped recession, the "bottom" does flatten out...we've been in the downturn a year longer than the UK
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:07 am
expat girl wrote:
How much worse can this actually get, now?? any idea when we will hit the bottom....even in an L shaped recession, the "bottom" does flatten out...we've been in the downturn a year longer than the UK
Oh, everything has collapsed into a chasm of catastrophe. I anticipate the economy contracting by 2.5% on average over this and the next year followed by about no growth in 2010. It is therefore likely that the bottom will be reached next year and we will see lots of dead cat bounces before a meaningful recovery ensues in 2010/11.
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:20 pm
Today you can buy Anglo Irish bank for less than 1 years profits. Talk about a sure thing!
That's right, €509 big ones will buy you 100% ownership of this great Irish institution, and yet strangely, there appear to be no takers. I wonder why not? I wonder why the senior managers in Anglo are not going private? At that price it's a sure fire thing.
For less than the price of the Builders Bailout the government could snap up BOI while they're at it! What a cash cow these two banks would be for the taxpayer over the next few difficult years! Or is there something they're not telling us?
American International Group looks like a steal too - aren't they big in insurance?
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:14 pm
It looks like a sure thing alright but haven't they put away 500 million for bad loan provision ? What if that's what they have to do for the next two years ? Or is that 500 million put aside BEFORE their profits of 800 million do you know ?
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:51 pm
My undestanding is that they had €784m profit for the year despite bad loans of €224m. Next year they are predicting €500m of bad loans and I suppose if the profits keep falling that might cancel out any profits for next year. But still, as i type, you can buy the entire bank for €464m (down from several billions a few short months ago) and if it's own management believe it is a viable concern that has got to be a bargain.
Maybe they don't believe that?
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 3:07 pm
coc wrote:
My undestanding is that they had €784m profit for the year despite bad loans of €224m. Next year they are predicting €500m of bad loans and I suppose if the profits keep falling that might cancel out any profits for next year. But still, as i type, you can buy the entire bank for €464m (down from several billions a few short months ago) and if it's own management believe it is a viable concern that has got to be a bargain.
Maybe they don't believe that?
Or maybe they think that if anyone tried to “buy” the bank the share price would jump significantly and therefore regard its present paper valuation as neither here nor there.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 3:12 pm
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 3:25 pm
Does anyone have a deep enough pocket to consider buying up an Irish bank''s liabilities?
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 4:25 pm
Anglo now worth the princely sum of €391. While the 'paper valuation' of this august institution might not be here, it is most definitely there.
How low can it go? I suspect it can go to a number that rhymes with hero.
Is that a rotund lady I hear clearing her throat?
Guest Guest
Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 4:32 pm
coc wrote:
Anglo now worth the princely sum of €391. While the 'paper valuation' of this august institution might not be here, it is most definitely there.
How low can it go? I suspect it can go to a number that rhymes with hero.
Is that a rotund lady I hear clearing her throat?
Thanks for linking to the market cap page - offers a newer perspective on it. Do you really see it going to zero ? At some point they'll suspend trading or it will. Do you see something horrible happening to them today ?
Is this why they don't want to be merged - one or more of them is suffering from some financial version of the RAGE virus ?
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000 Thu Dec 04, 2008 4:39 pm
Any serious Anglo shareholder has already been wiped out, so it's hard to quantify 'horrible', but if it goes any lower I'll be expecting my email spam filter to be picking up 'hot stoxxx tipz' for Anglo soon enough.
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Subject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part II - Trading below 2000