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 Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?

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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:05 am

cactus flower wrote:


(btw - any comments on the takeover of the Ansbacher by Anglo Irish ?)

What comment are you looking for? Ansbacher dealt in dodgy offshore accounts in the early 90s, they got caught, as did Irish Nationwide. They were duly chastised. If your question is somehow trying to link Anglo Irish Bank to the previous dealings of Ansbacher prior to their takeover I would have to strongly disagree with you unless you have any other information you want to bring to the table. Otherwise, perhaps you could give your comment on Anglo taking over Ansbacher.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:07 am

ibis wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
ibis wrote:
I don't disagree entirely with what you're saying - my point is more along the lines of the last bit of your post - that in the absence of a global slump, the banks would be looking at a major problem, but one that would probably be sustainable.

We won't fight over it. We have a government (and banking system) up to the ears in graft and with their eyes off the ball, but essentially, I think the bigger picture is a systemic failure of capitalism. India, for all that they did everything right on the banking front, are being dragged in to a potentially devastating manufactured dispute with their neighbour. There is no one who won't be affected one way or another by the economic mayhem that is on the loose.

Well, I'd say, rather, one of the regular systemic failures of capitalism. It's been blowing up at irregular but reasonably frequent intervals since credit instruments were invented.

cactus flower wrote:
(btw - any comments on the takeover of the Ansbacher by Anglo Irish ?)

None whatsoever, I'm afraid. Do you think it's historically significant?

Agree about the regularity of the failures: they have given us a couple of World Wars and much social upheaval so far along the line.

On the Ansbacher - Anglo Irish relationship - Maybe more socially than historically. It is a new one on me.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 3:17 am

cactus flower wrote:
ibis wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
ibis wrote:
I don't disagree entirely with what you're saying - my point is more along the lines of the last bit of your post - that in the absence of a global slump, the banks would be looking at a major problem, but one that would probably be sustainable.

We won't fight over it. We have a government (and banking system) up to the ears in graft and with their eyes off the ball, but essentially, I think the bigger picture is a systemic failure of capitalism. India, for all that they did everything right on the banking front, are being dragged in to a potentially devastating manufactured dispute with their neighbour. There is no one who won't be affected one way or another by the economic mayhem that is on the loose.

Well, I'd say, rather, one of the regular systemic failures of capitalism. It's been blowing up at irregular but reasonably frequent intervals since credit instruments were invented.

cactus flower wrote:
(btw - any comments on the takeover of the Ansbacher by Anglo Irish ?)

None whatsoever, I'm afraid. Do you think it's historically significant?

Agree about the regularity of the failures: they have given us a couple of World Wars and much social upheaval so far along the line.

I wouldn't lay those at the door of capitalism.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 3:20 am

ibis wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
ibis wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
ibis wrote:
I don't disagree entirely with what you're saying - my point is more along the lines of the last bit of your post - that in the absence of a global slump, the banks would be looking at a major problem, but one that would probably be sustainable.

We won't fight over it. We have a government (and banking system) up to the ears in graft and with their eyes off the ball, but essentially, I think the bigger picture is a systemic failure of capitalism. India, for all that they did everything right on the banking front, are being dragged in to a potentially devastating manufactured dispute with their neighbour. There is no one who won't be affected one way or another by the economic mayhem that is on the loose.

Well, I'd say, rather, one of the regular systemic failures of capitalism. It's been blowing up at irregular but reasonably frequent intervals since credit instruments were invented.

cactus flower wrote:
(btw - any comments on the takeover of the Ansbacher by Anglo Irish ?)

None whatsoever, I'm afraid. Do you think it's historically significant?

Agree about the regularity of the failures: they have given us a couple of World Wars and much social upheaval so far along the line.

I wouldn't lay those at the door of capitalism.

That might need a separate thread.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 4:25 am

cactus flower wrote:
What has the US got to do with recapitalisation of the Irish banks?
I don’t know, you’d want to ask Mr Casey, he brought the US into it as paragons of customer protection, a pity their financial institutions didn’t take their customers into consideration when selling them & everyone else down the river and a pity he didn’t point that out.
cactus flower wrote:
It is an entirely home-made problem. India, in the same situation with an overheated property market, pulled back the banks and stopped all lending for raw land until the oversupply sorted itself out and also restricted the level of mortgages. There are plenty of other countries who aren't having to recapitalise. Here, fuel was thrown on the fire with tax incentives for development. The Banks sold their own property in 2006 and knew well that the property market had plateaued, but threw out lending by the truckload for commercial and residential land and buildings at volumes that led to doubling of land prices in a year. They were not regulated and anyone who said to Government there was a problem was a loo-lah..
Irelands banking system doesn’t have a sub prime problem, it has a manageable developer borrowing problem. Most developers are big boys with plenty of assets to cover their borrowings, but it will take time to realise these assets at anything like their paper value. The complete & sudden collapse of our property market was not caused by anything the Irish banks were involved in, it was cause by the international credit crunch, led by the sub prime crises in the US market.

As far as our domestic situation is concerned, we are in the lucky position to have the 20 billion pension fund as back up, if we need it, something most other countries don’t have. It is the equivalent of the Germans or French having a 400 billion fund or the UK having a 250 billion fund, none of them have anything like that to fall back on.

Let me put it this way, as I see it, we are, over time, in a position to deal with the relatively small domestically inspired part of our overall problem, but by far, the major part of our problem was & is being caused by international (American) financial factors and there is damn all we can do about that except batten down the hatches and wait the storm out as best we can.

cactus flower wrote:
Your line seems to be that for some unexplained reason, Government and our national political culture should be viewed as immune to criticism. You haven't given any reason why that should be the case, but it would certainly benefit the incumbent party if it was accepted. An unaccountable government and an unregulated financial system - now that is a recipe for success.
I don’t think our Government or our national political culture should be viewed as immune to criticism, neither do I think that any bricks thrown at them, such as Mr. Casey’s, should be swallowed whole, just because it agrees with anyone’s general view. Casey uses American laws to try to show how far behind we are in protecting bank customers, yet he has f..k all to say on how deregulation of the same American financial system has caused the major problem in the first place. So, criticism by all means, but a bit of honesty and if at all possible, a bit of balance, at the same time.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 5:23 am

We know the 'argument from authority' and now we have - the argument from anti-authority Wink

The Unwelcome Guest on Michael Casey ...
Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 Tug10
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 1:53 pm

Tonys said
Quote :
I don’t know, you’d want to ask Mr Casey, he brought the US into it as paragons of customer protection, a pity their financial institutions didn’t take their customers into consideration when selling them & everyone else down the river and a pity he didn’t point that out

Where did he say that, Tonys?
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:14 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Tonys said
Quote :
I don’t know, you’d want to ask Mr Casey, he brought the US into it as paragons of customer protection, a pity their financial institutions didn’t take their customers into consideration when selling them & everyone else down the river and a pity he didn’t point that out

Where did he say that, Tonys?
"This brings us full circle to the question of legislators, ie politicians who are also part of the establishment - the second estate. The laws are not designed to punish one's own kind. They are designed primarily to protect the establishment. It is virtually impossible to prove fraud in this country. That is not an accident. In the US there is a crime called "civil racketeering", which is used to punish many white-collar fraudsters. There is no such crime on our statute books.

No individual in Ireland could afford to take a bank to court, and class actions, which are common in the US, are not permitted here. The consumer doesn't count for very much in this country"

RED, Hail to the good old USA

GREEN, Boo to bad old Ireland

WHITE, where he points out that it was the good old USA that made an arse of the worlds financial systems in the first place.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:22 pm

Property values should fall by another 50%. It was a bubble and it's bursting was not only predictable it was unavoidable. The lowering of interest rates with the introduction of the euro enabled prices to be bid so high. The fall in residential will be nothing compared to the crash in commercial which should be hitting the headlines at any time now. The bursting occurred just before the election when uncertainty over stamp duty froze the market. It occured before the credit markets got into difficulties but after the real estate top here which was Oct 2006.

I would like to see exactly how much money this fund holds. I would not plan on it having 20 billion though and that is for sure. I know exactly how much
will be in it shortly, a big fat duckegg.

The refusal to face reality is something else
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:30 pm

youngdan wrote:
Property values should fall by another 50%. It was a bubble and it's bursting was not only predictable it was unavoidable. The lowering of interest rates with the introduction of the euro enabled prices to be bid so high. The fall in residential will be nothing compared to the crash in commercial which should be hitting the headlines at any time now. The bursting occurred just before the election when uncertainty over stamp duty froze the market. It occured before the credit markets got into difficulties but after the real estate top here which was Oct 2006.

I would like to see exactly how much money this fund holds. I would not plan on it having 20 billion though and that is for sure. I know exactly how much
will be in it shortly, a big fat duckegg.

The refusal to face reality is something else
Still, I live in hope. You, on the other hand, seem happy somewhere else and must make your own arrangements.
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Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:39 pm

youngdan wrote:
Property values should fall by another 50%. It was a bubble and it's bursting was not only predictable it was unavoidable. The lowering of interest rates with the introduction of the euro enabled prices to be bid so high. The fall in residential will be nothing compared to the crash in commercial which should be hitting the headlines at any time now. The bursting occurred just before the election when uncertainty over stamp duty froze the market. It occured before the credit markets got into difficulties but after the real estate top here which was Oct 2006.

I would like to see exactly how much money this fund holds. I would not plan on it having 20 billion though and that is for sure. I know exactly how much
will be in it shortly, a big fat duckegg.

The refusal to face reality is something else
So the unwinding began here long before the American Credit crisis unleashed itself then. House prices had been wobbling around the time of the GE alright if not a few months after. Perhaps it can be vividly shown that our own credit mess with the banks is not directly related to the American meltdown at all. I still believe it was overspending big style. On the Anglo thread for example there is news of 6 Anglo loans of €800 million each being now covered by the bank guarantee and this recap. A lot more than the current 1.5 billion in taxpayers money will be needed to stuff up 6 €800 million euro loans.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 2:58 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
A lot more than the current 1.5 billion in taxpayers money will be needed to stuff up 6 €800 million euro loans.

Apologies, that's assuming that two or more of those loans are bad.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 3:26 pm

tonys wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Tonys said
Quote :
I don’t know, you’d want to ask Mr Casey, he brought the US into it as paragons of customer protection, a pity their financial institutions didn’t take their customers into consideration when selling them & everyone else down the river and a pity he didn’t point that out

Where did he say that, Tonys?
"This brings us full circle to the question of legislators, ie politicians who are also part of the establishment - the second estate. The laws are not designed to punish one's own kind. They are designed primarily to protect the establishment. It is virtually impossible to prove fraud in this country. That is not an accident. In the US there is a crime called "civil racketeering", which is used to punish many white-collar fraudsters. There is no such crime on our statute books.

No individual in Ireland could afford to take a bank to court, and class actions, which are common in the US, are not permitted here. The consumer doesn't count for very much in this country"

RED, Hail to the good old USA

GREEN, Boo to bad old Ireland

WHITE, where he points out that it was the good old USA that made an arse of the worlds financial systems in the first place.

Is there anything factually incorrect in what he said there Tonys ?

And can you explain

Quote :
Irelands banking system doesn’t have a sub prime problem, it has a manageable developer borrowing problem. Most developers are big boys with plenty of assets to cover their borrowings, but it will take time to realise these assets at anything like their paper value. The complete & sudden collapse of our property market was not caused by anything the Irish banks were involved in, it was cause by the international credit crunch, led by the sub prime crises in the US market

Would you like to explain the mechanism through which that took place, that takes account of the fact that prices flattened in 2006, declined thereafter and that by last summer there were abandoned and empty estates across the length and breadth of the country?
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 4:04 pm

cactus flower wrote:
tonys wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Tonys said
Quote :
I don’t know, you’d want to ask Mr Casey, he brought the US into it as paragons of customer protection, a pity their financial institutions didn’t take their customers into consideration when selling them & everyone else down the river and a pity he didn’t point that out

Where did he say that, Tonys?
"This brings us full circle to the question of legislators, ie politicians who are also part of the establishment - the second estate. The laws are not designed to punish one's own kind. They are designed primarily to protect the establishment. It is virtually impossible to prove fraud in this country. That is not an accident. In the US there is a crime called "civil racketeering", which is used to punish many white-collar fraudsters. There is no such crime on our statute books.

No individual in Ireland could afford to take a bank to court, and class actions, which are common in the US, are not permitted here. The consumer doesn't count for very much in this country"

RED, Hail to the good old USA

GREEN, Boo to bad old Ireland

WHITE, where he points out that it was the good old USA that made an arse of the worlds financial systems in the first place.

Is there anything factually incorrect in what he said there Tonys ?
People who are pushing one side of an argument usually are factually correct, while being biased as hell at the same time. It’s in what they leave out that the lack of honesty and/or balance shows. If you’re happy with a factually correct but partial and misleading story, who am I to interfere in your day.
You are either open to the flaws in the article or you’re not and it would appear you’re not, so, no point in floggin’ a dead horse here.
cactus flower wrote:
And can you explain

Quote :
Irelands banking system doesn’t have a sub prime problem, it has a manageable developer borrowing problem. Most developers are big boys with plenty of assets to cover their borrowings, but it will take time to realise these assets at anything like their paper value. The complete & sudden collapse of our property market was not caused by anything the Irish banks were involved in, it was cause by the international credit crunch, led by the sub prime crises in the US market

Would you like to explain the mechanism through which that took place, that takes account of the fact that prices flattened in 2006, declined thereafter and that by last summer there were abandoned and empty estates across the length and breadth of the country?
From Sept/October ‘06 there was a slowdown in house sales, but no reduction in house prices, some put this down to a call for a reduction in stamp duty, I think it was going to happen anyway. Prices nonetheless remained steady throughout the first half of ‘07, despite FG promising a reduction in stamp duty (along with reducing income tax & the devil and all, go on Richard, ya good thing, all is forgotten) with Lab & the PD’s doing the same and eventually, in an election context, forcing Cowen, against his will, to do the same.

In the meantime interest rates had started to go up regularly and were having an effect on an already slowing house market, but still no real problem, everything including budgets under control up to the end of ‘07. It was not until early ‘08 that house prices started to decrease to any significant degree, by which time the sub prime crises in the states was having an effect on banks everywhere and was the factor, throughout ’08, that turned a problem into a crisis.
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Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 7:12 pm

tonys wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
tonys wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Tonys said
Quote :
I don’t know, you’d want to ask Mr Casey, he brought the US into it as paragons of customer protection, a pity their financial institutions didn’t take their customers into consideration when selling them & everyone else down the river and a pity he didn’t point that out

Where did he say that, Tonys?
"This brings us full circle to the question of legislators, ie politicians who are also part of the establishment - the second estate. The laws are not designed to punish one's own kind. They are designed primarily to protect the establishment. It is virtually impossible to prove fraud in this country. That is not an accident. In the US there is a crime called "civil racketeering", which is used to punish many white-collar fraudsters. There is no such crime on our statute books.

No individual in Ireland could afford to take a bank to court, and class actions, which are common in the US, are not permitted here. The consumer doesn't count for very much in this country"

RED, Hail to the good old USA

GREEN, Boo to bad old Ireland

WHITE, where he points out that it was the good old USA that made an arse of the worlds financial systems in the first place.

Is there anything factually incorrect in what he said there Tonys ?
People who are pushing one side of an argument usually are factually correct, while being biased as hell at the same time. It’s in what they leave out that the lack of honesty and/or balance shows. If you’re happy with a factually correct but partial and misleading story, who am I to interfere in your day.
You are either open to the flaws in the article or you’re not and it would appear you’re not, so, no point in floggin’ a dead horse here.
cactus flower wrote:
And can you explain

Quote :
Irelands banking system doesn’t have a sub prime problem, it has a manageable developer borrowing problem. Most developers are big boys with plenty of assets to cover their borrowings, but it will take time to realise these assets at anything like their paper value. The complete & sudden collapse of our property market was not caused by anything the Irish banks were involved in, it was cause by the international credit crunch, led by the sub prime crises in the US market

Would you like to explain the mechanism through which that took place, that takes account of the fact that prices flattened in 2006, declined thereafter and that by last summer there were abandoned and empty estates across the length and breadth of the country?
From Sept/October ‘06 there was a slowdown in house sales, but no reduction in house prices, some put this down to a call for a reduction in stamp duty, I think it was going to happen anyway. Prices nonetheless remained steady throughout the first half of ‘07, despite FG promising a reduction in stamp duty (along with reducing income tax & the devil and all, go on Richard, ya good thing, all is forgotten) with Lab & the PD’s doing the same and eventually, in an election context, forcing Cowen, against his will, to do the same.

In the meantime interest rates had started to go up regularly and were having an effect on an already slowing house market, but still no real problem, everything including budgets under control up to the end of ‘07. It was not until early ‘08 that house prices started to decrease to any significant degree, by which time the sub prime crises in the states was having an effect on banks everywhere and was the factor, throughout ’08, that turned a problem into a crisis.

Some more facts:
Quote :
House prices in Ireland fell by 7% nationally in 2007, according to Permanent TSB/ESRI monthly figures, or 11.5% in inflation-adjusted terms.

Over the 12-month period to end-May 2008, prices have fallen by 9.5%, or 13.6% in inflation-adjusted terms.

This report points to serious over-building in 2007.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Ireland/Price-History

Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 CO-IEP-F00

But no doubt the Global Property Guide has an anti-Irish agenda.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 8:15 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Some more facts:
Quote :
House prices in Ireland fell by 7% nationally in 2007, according to Permanent TSB/ESRI monthly figures, or 11.5% in inflation-adjusted terms.

Over the 12-month period to end-May 2008, prices have fallen by 9.5%, or 13.6% in inflation-adjusted terms.

This report points to serious over-building in 2007.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Ireland/Price-History

Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 CO-IEP-F00

But no doubt the Global Property Guide has an anti-Irish agenda.
TSB/ESRI
“Measuring the rate of growth in the 12 months (year on year) to October 2008, average national prices were down by 10.2%. This compares to a decline of 4.7% recorded in the 12 months to October 2007.”
In other words more than twice the decrease in prices in ‘08 compared to ‘07.

Much more significantly sales volume is down considerably from ‘07 to ‘08

Revenue figures;
Stamp duty down 66% year on year November ‘07 to ‘08.

Assuming like for like sales and taking into account the 10% decrease in house prices for the same period, these figures mean there was a 50% decrease in the volume of property sold between ’07 & ’08.

Stamp duty from Jan to Oct ’07 was down about 5% on the same period for ‘06 or down about the same as house prices. So, no volume decrease in house sales in 2007, but a 50% volume decrease in 2008. I’d say that was a significant difference between ’07 & ’08, wouldn’t you?

The complete collapse in the Irish property market is not so much in prices, it’s in sales volume and this reduction in volume happened in 2008 (not in 2007), at exactly the same time as the credit crunch started to bite, coincidence?
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 9:07 pm

tonys wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Some more facts:
Quote :
House prices in Ireland fell by 7% nationally in 2007, according to Permanent TSB/ESRI monthly figures, or 11.5% in inflation-adjusted terms.

Over the 12-month period to end-May 2008, prices have fallen by 9.5%, or 13.6% in inflation-adjusted terms.

This report points to serious over-building in 2007.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Ireland/Price-History

Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 CO-IEP-F00

But no doubt the Global Property Guide has an anti-Irish agenda.
TSB/ESRI
“Measuring the rate of growth in the 12 months (year on year) to October 2008, average national prices were down by 10.2%. This compares to a decline of 4.7% recorded in the 12 months to October 2007.”
In other words more than twice the decrease in prices in ‘08 compared to ‘07.

Much more significantly sales volume is down considerably from ‘07 to ‘08

Revenue figures;
Stamp duty down 66% year on year November ‘07 to ‘08.

Assuming like for like sales and taking into account the 10% decrease in house prices for the same period, these figures mean there was a 50% decrease in the volume of property sold between ’07 & ’08.

Stamp duty from Jan to Oct ’07 was down about 5% on the same period for ‘06 or down about the same as house prices. So, no volume decrease in house sales in 2007, but a 50% volume decrease in 2008. I’d say that was a significant difference between ’07 & ’08, wouldn’t you?

The complete collapse in the Irish property market is not so much in prices, it’s in sales volume and this reduction in volume happened in 2008 (not in 2007), at exactly the same time as the credit crunch started to bite, coincidence?

Its not easy to rewrite history, tonys, but I give you marks for effort.

Please note -

Quote :

The housing market crash began in February 2007 when property prices began to fall.

Quote :
During 2007, the stock of houses for sale rose 62%, and transaction volumes fell drastically, according to the most recent Daft report.

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1011050.shtml

Quote :
Housing starts dropped 58% in August (2007), based on housing registrations released today and last Monday.
Based on the Davy research model, the annualised rate of housing starts was running at 44,500 on average in June-August, seasonally adjusted. That compares with a rate of 94,500 in the same period of 2006.

Transactions which reduced radically in 2007 obviously again fell again throughout 2008 as prices were by then in freefall, and it made little sense to enter the market.

The only argument is how many billions are the Irish banks adrift in terms of residential and commercial property lending, both in Ireland and abroad. We do not have access to the figures, but a quick Google search of Anglo Irish Bank shows that the bank is deeply involved with the US and UK property markets, as well as here.

Of course we are being affected by the world economic crisis, but the idea that the Irish property crash and bank crisis was caused primarily by US sub prime lending is simply not sustainable.

Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 Davysept052007


Last edited by cactus flower on Sun Dec 28, 2008 9:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 9:10 pm

tonys wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Property values should fall by another 50%. It was a bubble and it's bursting was not only predictable it was unavoidable. The lowering of interest rates with the introduction of the euro enabled prices to be bid so high. The fall in residential will be nothing compared to the crash in commercial which should be hitting the headlines at any time now. The bursting occurred just before the election when uncertainty over stamp duty froze the market. It occured before the credit markets got into difficulties but after the real estate top here which was Oct 2006.

I would like to see exactly how much money this fund holds. I would not plan on it having 20 billion though and that is for sure. I know exactly how much
will be in it shortly, a big fat duckegg.

The refusal to face reality is something else
Still, I live in hope. You, on the other hand, seem happy somewhere else and must make your own arrangements.

Hope is not going to cut it. A planner must be ahead of the curve and still has a tough task. Everyone must make their own arrangments.

The argument that the Irish property bubble only burst because of the credit squeeze in the US not hold water because it burst long before the credit squeeze appeared.

A good parallel for those who wish to understand property booms is the Florida real estate bubble that collapsed in 1926. The pin prick which burst that bubble was a hurricane.

There is always an event that brings those caught up in a bubble to their senses. In the Irish situation it was the realisation that the buyer was paying many thousands in stamp duty and the house would have to appreciate by an unsustainable rate to cover that tax.


All of a sudden it was over. Sure sellers held on but the writing was on the wall. Sales will always drop and it is only later that nervous sellers will begin to drop their prices

The commercial side will have a rapid fall
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 10:49 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Of course we are being affected by the world economic crisis, but the idea that the Irish property crash and bank crisis was caused primarily by US sub prime lending is simply not sustainable.
Germany, no property bubble, a good property year in 2007.

2008 result; Property transactions drop 46% in Q1; greater declines likely in Q2. Thursday, June 12, 2008. Source: German Real Estate Review ...


Do you think the Irish bubble scared them into inactivity or could it be as a result of the credit crisis or are the similarities between the 2008 fall in property transactions in Germany, sans bubble, and Ireland, burst bubble, just another coincidence?
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptySun Dec 28, 2008 11:39 pm

There is no comparison between the Irish and German property situations.
Spain or Iceland would be closer.
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptyMon Dec 29, 2008 2:02 am

What we are in now is a deflation. Even markets which did not experience a bubble are seeing drops in prices. The credit squeeze came well after the property bubble burst. In fact the argument could be made that the bursting of the property bubble caused the credit squeeze.

This is not to be confused with the credit bubble which has yet to burst. I expect this to happen within days and interest rates will rise.

This will signal the end of deflation and a hyperinflation will begin
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptyMon Dec 29, 2008 2:13 am

youngdan wrote:
What we are in now is a deflation. Even markets which did not experience a bubble are seeing drops in prices. The credit squeeze came well after the property bubble burst. In fact the argument could be made that the bursting of the property bubble caused the credit squeeze.

This is not to be confused with the credit bubble which has yet to burst. I expect this to happen within days and interest rates will rise.

This will signal the end of deflation and a hyperinflation will begin

Real interest rates are already high as banks are trying to cover their deficits. Surely it is an excess of credit, not a reduction, that is likely to fuel inflation?
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The hyperinflation will result from the currency collapsing. The pound is leading the way and the other two will follow. In which order remains to be seen
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptyMon Dec 29, 2008 2:38 am

youngdan wrote:
The hyperinflation will result from the currency collapsing. The pound is leading the way and the other two will follow. In which order remains to be seen

That makes sense - collapse in relation to what ? The yen ? The yuan ? Rupee ?

Protectionism and war would be the next steps ?
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PostSubject: Re: Nationalisation Watch / Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks?   Nationalisation Watch /  Govt. rethinking 3.5 billion bailout for the banks? - Page 19 EmptyMon Dec 29, 2008 3:45 am

cactus flower wrote:
There is no comparison between the Irish and German property situations.
Yet the early 2008 property result is almost exactly the same in both countries, a remarkable coincidence.
We here in Ireland feel the economic effects of that property downturn more than the Germans because we are more property tax dependent than they are and this had led to a much sharper decrease in confidence here but the volume numbers are the same for both countries as are the reasons for the downturn the same, increasing cost of credit, much tighter availability of credit and loss of confidence on the general economic front. For Ireland we can add another reason, already falling property prices, but as the end result is almost the same for both countries, we can see that this was by no means the major influence in our property market in 2008.
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