Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

anmajornarthainig wrote:

Jackie Healy-Rae is a slímhín. The only good thing about him is that he`s not his idiot son.

Someone said to me today that they can see Irish politics breaking down again quickly to complete gombeen/parish pump politics, with no policy and no strategy, just a blow by blow local bid for tax spend in return for votes. Do you think that is happening, or will people demand a big solution?

cactus flower wrote:

anmajornarthainig wrote:

Jackie Healy-Rae is a slímhín. The only good thing about him is that he`s not his idiot son.

Someone said to me today that they can see Irish politics breaking down again quickly to complete gombeen/parish pump politics, with no policy and no strategy, just a blow by blow local bid for tax spend in return for votes. Do you think that is happening, or will people demand a big solution?

A lot of people in Clare thought an independent FFer James Breen would get elected in the GE last year because of Ennis General Hospital and if Clare FM is anything to go by a lot of people were disappointed he didn't win but he will no doubt get elected to the council next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he ran again in the next GE either - he'd be elected in a shot in this climate.

These single-issue people are interesting because, even though there is no overall strategy behind their candidacy which leaves such single-issue candidates open to very valid criticisms, it does or may at least, encourages the bigger party to develop some sort of overall strategy because of the power the single-issue guys often seem to have from the view of other single-issue people elsewhere.

In a reaction against FF, people can tend to vote for the Independent people too, especially in Clare where it's FF or if you're a snob FG. Labour and others if you're feeling very exotic. The Independent FFer is the next best thing to the Real FF though.

cactus flower wrote:

anmajornarthainig wrote:

Jackie Healy-Rae is a slímhín. The only good thing about him is that he`s not his idiot son.

Someone said to me today that they can see Irish politics breaking down again quickly to complete gombeen/parish pump politics, with no policy and no strategy, just a blow by blow local bid for tax spend in return for votes. Do you think that is happening, or will people demand a big solution?

I just don`t know. Probably a mixture of both. Sinn Féin increasing slightly in the poorer urban areas and a couple of areas where they`re strong enough already, independents along the western seaboard and Fine Gael and Labour increasingly slightly elsewhere. Fine Gael, Labour and SF would want to start talking now. Feelers should be going out to the Greens. If they come up with an alternative governement, categorically refusing to go into government with Fianna Fáil they`d have some hope of stopping the rise of independents. They could also announce the shadow government beforehand. I`d say SF would be happy enough with Community Development and Fishing portfolios.

Don't the Independents break more or less equally down main party lines?
They are either left or right Independents surely?

Can Joan Burton, Higgins and Varadker really be in the same government in a time when difficult, divisive choices have to be made?

I was talking more in terms of new independents who`d spring up in response to local conditions. Regarding the issue of Fine Gael and Labour they`ll get along just fine. Varadkar will be more experienced then and should be less abrasive. Politics makes strange bedfellows. Even the most ardent right wingers in FG will realise that there is more chance of Eoin O`Duffy wandering into Leinster House dressed as Baby Spice and singing "Donald where`s your troosers?" than FG getting into power without Labour. FG would want to show some real leadersip on the issue of politicians pay and expenses rather than just withering on about capping state employees pay.

anmajornarthainig wrote:

I was talking more in terms of new independents who`d spring up in response to local conditions. Regarding the issue of Fine Gael and Labour they`ll get along just fine. Varadkar will be more experienced then and should be less abrasive. Politics makes strange bedfellows. Even the most ardent right wingers in FG will realise that there is more chance of Eoin O`Duffy wandering into Leinster House dressed as Baby Spice and singing "Donald where`s your troosers?" than FG getting into power without Labour. FG would want to show some real leadersip on the issue of politicians pay and expenses rather than just withering on about capping state employees pay.

That is one thing I can agree with you on without question. No Government will have credibility unless they take on the pain of serious cuts in pay, pension and position (back to where they were say in 2001). When the next election comes I'll be looking for a written answer from each candidate on what remuneration they would accept to do the job.

Fine Gael may not realise it but there are votes in the issue. Imagine the money you would save if each politician took a pay cut of a third (this would still leave them well paid...leave the expenses as they currently stand), abolish the Seanad, half the number of Junior Ministers, merge a pile of the County Councils.

Latest MRBI poll - FF at 27%, Cowen 26% satisfaction rating. FF is down 15% since June. It's on Prime Time right now.

That election was the one to lose ...

FF 27%
FG 34%
Lab 14%
GR 4%
SF 8%
Ind 13%

Fine Gael - 34 (up 11)
Fianna Fail - 27 (down 15)
Labour - 14 (down 1)
Sinn Féin - 8 (unchanged)
Green - 4 (down 1)

Independents & Others - 13 (up 7)

You were quicker on the buzzer unaligned!!

However, I think it is important to state that it is Independs and 'Others' up 7. Depending on the wording of the questions that other can be very distinguishing from merely independents. If I said to you, would you rather vote for fine gael, fianna fail, labour, sinn fein, the greens or someone else. You might well answer someone else demonstrating a general degree of dissatisifaction with the overall process. I do not believe that would necessarily lead to one voting for an independent candidate.

The huge jump for Independents is interesting. I assume it indicates a general dissatisfaction with the main political parties. Lots of fertile ground there!

I agree johnfás and you put it more eloquently!

Thanks unaligned and johnfás - I've obviously got a one-track mind ! What really seems to matter for politics here is whether FF are up or down not whether the others are up or down.

The Greens are at 4% ... and weren't SF and Lab up 2% and 1% in the last Red C poll ? The Red C poll turned out to be conservative about FF ..

What we really need is someone of an ethnic minority, with a father from overseas and a Mother from Kerry, a Grandmother from the Blaskets and ancestry in Offaly to come onto the scene and bring us Change we can believe in.

Labour are holding steady enough at about 15%. I think that is probably the height of it for them unless they come out with an alternative vision. It's obviously a great poll for FG and if they push harder they will probably continue to climb. I understand that they are to spend a lot of money on a promotional campaign and a new website, fairerbudget.ie (why didn't they call it fairbudget.ie??) The fact that nearly 75% of voters are dissatisfied with Cowen is very bad news indeed for FF and will seriously unsettle already nervous backbenchers. The greens are in big trouble and I think that whatever happens, they will struggle to return a single deputy next time out.

They are certainly in alot of trouble. It is unprecendented in the history of the State that Fianna Fáil be lagging so far behind Fine Gael in opinion polls, even lagging behind at all. Obviously these are only polls but they are significant.

I think it marks a departure in Irish politics. There is certainly still a huge link to historical voting trends but the fact remains that Fianna Fáil were in power during an unprecedented boom in Irish history and now their policies have been found wanting. What happens in the next election will be very interesting, it could mark a significant shift in our politics. However, you do still have to bear in mind the party machine that Fianna Fáil has in place. We don't want to lose the run of ourselves.

Yeah I agree, they have a lot of time to get it together. The thing is that this time, it is more or less out of their hands. They can't hold a few quid back for general release nine months before a general elections. They also have a personnel problem. Many of the younger deputies won't have any experience in how to handle the hatred that will come their way in the next few years. Many of the older, battle-hardened operators will likely not seek re-election. Also, FF took a major hit in the last local elections. They will suffer even more profoundly this time out which will result in a seriously diminished national organisation. The outlook is not good.

That's it unaligned - can they buy the next election ? They've really been guilty of that during Bertie's reign by all accounts. I wonder is there a list of the stuff that they've bought the electorate off with ? How do we keep falling for it ?

And in this budget they gave some percentage rise in social welfare - was that necessary or will I be killed for saying that ? On the news earlier was talk of deflation - that will surely help people on low incomes or people generally.

It's really annoying how they buy elections though - another slightly related thing was the SSIAs which came out just before an election. What a thing that was ! Not only did it coincide with that election (or just the year before ?) but "powderfinger" over on p.ie reckoned that in total the saved SSIA fund was at one time worth 14 billion - is that true ? Anyway, banks could borrow on the back of this series of deposits to the tune of ten times that .. scary stuff by powderfinger. What kind of policies are those ???

Auditor #9 wrote:

Latest MRBI poll - FF at 27%, Cowen 26% satisfaction rating. FF is down 15% since June. It's on Prime Time right now.

That election was the one to lose ...

yip ..for once in their history FG have it fortune on their side.

Respvblica wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Latest MRBI poll - FF at 27%, Cowen 26% satisfaction rating. FF is down 15% since June. It's on Prime Time right now.

That election was the one to lose ...

yip ..for once in their history FG have it fortune on their side.

As a FG supporter do you trust it though Respvblica ? It seems to me the electorate have something against FG seething under the skin and that this is a response to a whole plethora of things now spewed out by FF themselves - pulling vaccines, medical cards and god knows what else. I've a feeling that FF know/believe that they are bullet-proof in the long-term though - they are very powerful organisation which somehow hynotises the votes out of people.

I'd like to see FG in power for a while but I'd prefer to see that people were waking up to the way the country seems to be getting run. Next I hope they'll start asking for the right things and no, that's not handouts - information would be a start.

Amazing they had the fuck-witidness to bin the cancer vaccine for 12 year olds. My eldest daughter is 12. And I've two more daughters of youger age. I'm hopping over this. It's 10 Million FFS.

Reading through the Estimates, some departments spend close to this on photocopy paper. Or whatever.

Time for an election lads. These fuckers have NO mandate.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Amazing they had the fuck-witidness to bin the cancer vaccine for 12 year olds. My eldest daughter is 12. And I've two more daughters of youger age. I'm hopping over this. It's 10 Million FFS.

Reading through the Estimates, some departments spend close to this on photocopy paper. Or whatever.

Time for an election lads. These fuckers have NO mandate.

Did you listen to morning ireland this morning - there's an interview with the guy who made the breakthrough originally on cervical cancer - Harald zur Hausen on the human papilloma virus' link to cervical cancer
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1113/morningireland_av.html?2448679,null,209 (does this work?)

He reckons that screening isn't sufficient and that it is calculable that people will die if the vaccine isn't administered. Did someone mention around 50 (per year?)

Lastly I read somewhere - maybe on the p.ie thread - that the biggest part of the cost of the vaccine is the doctor going into schools to administer it. Highly-paid doctors and other bastards run this country I'm afraid - it's irrelevant who sits on the left-hand side of the Chamber of the Dáil.

Given that it costs so little this move looks like FF committing poltical suicide. No wonder - the whole house is around their ears anyway - who'd want to be trying to rebuild it ?

There's the full file from morning ireland
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1113/morningireland_av.html?2448657,null,209

Exactly. Despite their showing in the polls the last thing Fine Gael would want at this particular moment is a General Election.