This thread from January was locked over there.
http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=30131

My prediction was 12th March. Wrong.

My new prediction is March 25th, around tea time. (Next Wednesday)
I don't think he can stretch it to the Congress speech April 30th.

I'm struck with the contrast between Eddie O'Sullivan and Bertie (apologies if some cleverer person has made this association already).

During the news at one there were a number of FF councillors saying how they felt about the situation and I think it was Tommy Murphy who had spoken earlier on LMFM (may have been someone else) who said that he had done well but now it was time to go. While the first half of that premise is debatable, the second probably isn't.

It amazes me that there is far less tolerance of the ineffectuality of sports' coaches than there is of a national leader. If Bertie was Stan or Eddie he'd be gone long ago and the airwaves would have been laden down with the plain people of Ireland giving their tuppence worth in that clichéd way that they sometimes do when they get indignant about national pride and the importance of the job at hand, etc, etc.

The public really don't care about Bertie - though when he goes there'll probably be great lamenting for him. He'll get a This is your Life retrospective on Joe Duffy and the mammies of Ireland will ring in saying what a great man he was and his martyrdom is secured.

I think that Bertie will stay until the bitter end. His groupies have been threatening for so long that it's not possible to criticise the lord and master until the Tribunal has done its work that he is unlikely to jump any time soon. It would be a knife in the heart of what remains of FF credibility.

Bertie's strength has been his tenaciousness. He's like a jackrussel terrier with his teeth in your trousers and he will not let go. I don't think it matters what the tribunal unearths, his ability to ride through the storm day by day, will see him through. To step down early is to give in and I really think that the consequences (personally and politically) of admitting defeat are too much for Bertie to contemplate. He just won't do it.

So EVM, if Bertie isn't in place at the end of April I will bake you a big gooey chocolate cake for Kid 1, Kid 2 and Kid 3 to munch on.

I think April 1st but how will we know its true

To mark Brian Ó Nualláin's 42nd anniversary

Kate P wrote:

...
Bertie's strength has been his tenaciousness. He's like a jackrussel terrier with his teeth in your trousers and he will not let go. I don't think it matters what the tribunal unearths, his ability to ride through the storm day by day, will see him through. To step down early is to give in and I really think that the consequences (personally and politically) of admitting defeat are too much for Bertie to contemplate. He just won't do it.

Yes, but at some point, those who have to carry on in FF will consider he is too much liability to carry. It then ceases to be Ahern's choice. I would imagine there will be lot's of discussion within FF this weekend on whether that point has been reached.

Quote :

So EVM, if Bertie isn't in place at the end of April I will bake you a big gooey chocolate cake for Kid 1, Kid 2 and Kid 3 to munch on.

Nothing for me ?? Those kids get too much already.

Quote :

Yes, but at some point, those who have to carry on in FF will consider he is too much liability to carry. It then ceases to be Ahern's choice. I would imagine there will be lot's of discussion within FF this weekend on whether that point has been reached.

I agree that there will probably be much discussion - but I don't think things will change. The hard work has been done in digging the trenches; now all the backbenchers and councillors have to do is maintain their position publicly. They can grumble behind closed doors but it will have little effect. The consequences of Bertie stepping down are far more negative than positive. It's an admission of defeat.

What will have to happen for him to be a liability to carry? If you were to ask a hundred people today who Gráinne Caruth is, I'd be surprised if 10 of them could tell you or explain her role.

I imagine that until something emerges from the Tribunal that will shake the public in some tangible way or provide some really incontrovertible evidence of wrongdoing, then Bertiegate fatigue will continue to apathise (can I use that as a verb?) the public and nothing will change.

If Bertie steps down now, mid Tribunal, it's an admission of weakness. The opposition are on repeat and the public aren't listening. I don't see it happening any time soon.

I would be genuinely surprised if hes let go til the end of April. Sure hes been in the bunker since tuesday and his supporters are few and far between in their endorsements. On the media anyhow. The bigger they come the harder they fall. April 10th. Anniersary of Comhaontú Aoine an Chéasta

Ten weeks -ish to Lisbon.

No one will touch him on that because everyone wants Lisbon to go through apart from SF so it's unlikely to be a political issue, really. Enda was very clear in Galway at the debate there that the opposition wouldn't be making a Bertie issue out of Lisbon - because they couldn't.

What's the benefit in going before Lisbon?

It's right now (which I think is unlikely) because of stability coming up to Lisbon - or after Lisbon.

What think ye?

When the end comes. It can be very sudden. Just ask Ian Mór. I wouldnt be too sure if future political happenings have any influence once the buile batter/schmoozle begins.

I pretty much agree with Kate here. Definitely very unlikely before Lisbon, short of someone actually releasing a photo of him touching a choirboy's bottom or the like.

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

When the end comes. It can be very sudden. Just ask Ian Mór. I wouldnt be too sure if future political happenings have any influence once the buile batter/schmoozle begins.

Big Ian is 82! That's not sudden!

I don't think power will be handed over. I think it will be seized. And I agree with Seathrún, once the seizure begins, it will be over in jig time.

ibis wrote:

I pretty much agree with Kate here. Definitely very unlikely before Lisbon, short of someone actually releasing a photo of him touching a choirboy's bottom or the like.

What's your best guess for the referendum date ibis ?

Id say the greens will want him to hang on til Summer so that ff can get rid of him before start of new school year. Bright new head boy and all that.

If he goes before that, the greens will be answerable to the accusation of not being quicker to condemn Bertie than members of his own party.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

ibis wrote:

I pretty much agree with Kate here. Definitely very unlikely before Lisbon, short of someone actually releasing a photo of him touching a choirboy's bottom or the like.

What's your best guess for the referendum date ibis ?

12th June.

...on a high note, probably...

Ahern won't go now and won't be pushed. He will go but will limp on for a while and then go on his "own terms" in a vain belief that he's saving face.

He should go, infact the should have gone or been pushed a long time back, but he won't.

cookiemonster wrote:

Ahern won't go now and won't be pushed. He will go but will limp on for a while and then go on his "own terms" in a vain belief that he's saving face.

He should go, infact the should have gone or been pushed a long time back, but he won't.

... which is why I find it futile of complainants to suggest that somehow the coalition partners can have anything other than Hobson's choice when it comes to dealing with the thorny issue of de Bert. Sure we could go in a huff - but that won't move him.

Kate P wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

Ahern won't go now and won't be pushed. He will go but will limp on for a while and then go on his "own terms" in a vain belief that he's saving face.

He should go, infact the should have gone or been pushed a long time back, but he won't.

... which is why I find it futile of complainants to suggest that somehow the coalition partners can have anything other than Hobson's choice when it comes to dealing with the thorny issue of de Bert. Sure we could go in a huff - but that won't move him.

Aye, I'm all for slagging the greens on various issues (down Kate) and the PDs are an easy target but on this one I just roll my eyes. Everybody could walk from government and every councillor and opposition leader could rail agains him and it would only make him dig his heals in more.

I've been saying it for years, Bertie will go when he's good and ready and nothing will move him until he decides that time himself. Perhaps Cowan could, but it's not likely now and that too bodes ill for the future of FF.

Ah lads, ye're dashing my hopes.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Ah lads, ye're dashing my hopes.

Sorry EVM, it's just not going to happen.

Nothing is coming up at the Tribunal that Bertie doesn't know about. And there's probably quite a bit that hasn't come up that he does know about.

If you look at the way he set up the coalition, you have to hand it to the man that he is more skilled at group manipulation than financial shenanigans. Everyone around him has their hands tied.

If there was a likelihood of something very damning leaking out, he'd be gone by now. He'll deliver Lisbon, say his work is done and move on, with all the sh$t you can throw him dripping from his yellow teflon suit.

When is his little trip to DC planned?

I've been meaning to go there for a while now. I would love to go at the same time and bring a placard and stand on the steps if the Capitol. I'd be sure to get some media coverage!

Speech day is April 30th.

What are you going to write on the placard.
(John 10:16 won't get much coverage)

SO Bertie's legal team did not show up on Thursday and there was not attempt to question Ms Carruth. They must be facing difficulties given the contradictions between Berties evidence and the paperwork. The whole thing is unwinding. The tribunal is obliged to consider if she has mislead the tribunal and if she has perjured herself, both serious offences. The same goes for Aherne.

Do you remember how Bertie looked like a rabbit in headlights coming up to the election? He knew this was coming down the track. Could Bertie continue to run the country from the clink?