A Change in the Air?

I posted the below over on P.ie - but I get a feeling its going to go over the heads of the kiddies over there - So I'll post it here too - where it might get a more receptive audience and better debate.

I was replying to a question from FT " Who would vote for Libertas and Why?"



think that question is totally up to Libertas - what do they want to achieve:?- outside of helping kill off the Lisbon Treaty?

Going on the Lisbon campaign - I cant put my finger on anything substantive in relation to ideology or policies - given the scattergun approach to hitting as many emotional buttons as possible in as many different,diverse groups as possible - which in a woolly kind of a way - they succeeded in doing so - giving a veneer of respectability and outward moderateness to the No Camp ,allowing many people to vote No with a pretty clear conscience that they were not voting for Sinn Fein, the SWP and the rest of the far left/right religious brigade.

Now what?

Well there is a massive window of opportunity open to them right now - but it will close very fast if they don't take this opportunity now - FF and FG are flat out on the canvass at the moment - In fact it could be argued that we have a lame duck Dail - not really representative of the electorates view on things and the situation currently - Ironically Lisbon and European affairs in general contribute very little to this alienation - this referendum rout was purely due to domestic affairs - The electorate gave an almightly up yours to Dail Eireann in general and a seething frustration with our elected officials to manage to do anything right , to take tough decisions, to listen and learn - and most importantly to show real leadership and a vision as to where they see the country in 5-10-15-20 years. Thats the nub of the issue. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael's grassroots are fading away - FG's was always a bit of fairweather team - might turnout if they could be arsed and it isfull of too many chiefs and not enough indians - but the depreciationof FF's legendary machine is quite startling - the good times can spoil you and Mr Cowen, IMHO, has a hell of a job on his hands to try reinvigorate that.

In Short - I don't think the Main parties have noticed - but the game has changed - the Civil war politics is fading away - but what when and who is going to replace it is not so clear.

The people who decided the referendum result are the same people who decided last years election result and the elections before that - that 20-25 and growing rapidly % of the Irish electorate who are
the workerbees of the Celtic Tiger, living in suburbia and the new towns and estates that have sprung up around all our major cities and towns -vast majority private sector,non union or self employed well
educated technically speaking and have aspirations to become firmly middle class - aspirations that have been and currently are being severely tested . They want the good public services - most particularly in Education, Health and transport and they don't care what ideological delivery service is used as long as there might a vague hope that these services will deliver more than just votes and subs for the public service unions -They are cynical and totally frustrated with the poor record of the states delivery of services - They understand that the Celtic tiger was built on capitalist foundations and while they might throw a crust or two every now and again towards Joe Higgins and the like - they know that state socialism-Irish style is a dead man walking and was probably responsible for putting off the arrival of the celtic tiger by about a decade when labour kept the noose around Fitzgeralds neck and his government in a constant state of paralysis.

In Short they are owned by nobody - they have ,by and large , kept with Fianna Fail , who kept
house prices on the up, taxes reasonably low and promised them the earth over the last 10 years - Fine gael ,my own party, god bless them , didn't know where to start in addressing these folks concerns , tho Leo V , O'Reilly and Hayes have finally seen the light , but they are a minority in a party that still thinks its 1958 , not 2008.Labour...........ah well............ and greens do not even come on their radar screen. But these are the people who will decide the political destiny of this country for the forseeable future - not the farmers , not the D4s , not the lawyers, not the public service . and they are damn mad at this moment in time.

Who will take this opportunity - and it is a serious opportunity - but it will require running in the locals next year - lots of door to door canvassing and getting across some very simple messages and measurable and achievable objectives - the people of this country have had enough bull now and would be open to such a route - Europe and the EU is not an overriding question or issue for them at all - if they had any faith left in the ability of the Oireachtas to currently produce anything more than a punch and judy show for insomniacs they would vote thru Lisbon no bother - its the price of babyfood in Eurospar thats the issue, its the cost of childcare that is the issue, its condition and availability of education for those same children thats the issue, and most importantly its the jobs that to pay for all of this that is the issue - not Lisbon, euroelites, conscription or all of that malarky - if the EU could guarantee the solutions to all of the above - The Irish people would vote in a French speaking dictatorship tomorrow morning with Germany in charge of the comedy.

Over to you Libertas - your choice - its an opportunity - will you take it - or do you want to take it?

Can't remember where but didn't I read that Ganley would run in Europe and basically contest the structure of the Union itself ? What a manifesto ! He's probably going to get tons of support across Europe from the Right who voted in France and The Netherlands, and possibly from the Centre too. He'll also get massive support in the UK with the same ticket.

There's scope for it - he is reported as saying he wants a Federal Europe and at the same time, as wanting a Europe built by and from the citizen up. Wouldn't he get a rake of support from the educated, politically interested, commuter belters you refer to above and the ones around Europe and the UK too ? Doesn't our Democratic set up have the facility within it of changing itself through party politics ? Sinn Fein could capitalise on this too given the apparent ignoring of the Laeken Declaration.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Can't remember where but didn't I read that Ganley would run in Europe and basically contest the structure of the Union itself ? What a manifesto ! He's probably going to get tons of support across Europe from the Right who voted in France and The Netherlands, and possibly from the Centre too. He'll also get massive support in the UK with the same ticket.

There's scope for it - he is reported as saying he wants a Federal Europe and at the same time, as wanting a Europe built by and from the citizen up. Wouldn't he get a rake of support from the educated, politically interested, commuter belters you refer to above and the ones around Europe and the UK too ? Doesn't our Democratic set up have the facility within it of changing itself through party politics ? Sinn Fein could capitalise on this too given the apparent ignoring of the Laeken Declaration.

seeing as it was the left who were the main parties and drivers behind the defeat of the constitution in France and the Netherlands - I think not - maybe the National front - but if I had pan-European ambitions - its not the kind of company I would like to be keeping - what does he want? - the destruction of the EU or a Fully Federal EU state? - they are going to have to come clean on that at some stage.

Personally I think all of the above is wildy optimistic and based on a complete misreading of the referendum result here in Ireland - People voted for the UKip - because that is what they want - UK independence - not a cog in some millionaires machine - a millionaire who appears to have wildy schizophrenic views on the EU itself - Im afraid me thinks napoleonic complex and another Jimmy Goldsmith who because he became the first Brit ever elected in France - thought he had the answer to all the EU's problems.

I was just making the point that if Libertas really wanted to become a permanent fixture - they could do better looking at home rather than this very optimistic view of this Pan European thingy.

The fun starts now!  

Edo wrote:

I had pan-European ambitions - its not the kind of company I would like to be keeping - what does he want? - the destruction of the EU or a Fully Federal EU state? - they are going to have to come clean on that at some stage.

There's no real hint that they will run as a pan-European party though, is there ? No doubt there's a market for it though - I've seen a petition site recently called the Five Demands on the debate europe site and one of those demands is for a structure which allows pan-European parties...

maybe cookie could shed some light on it for you Edo or you could go and read the Libertas site - I haven't got enough holy water to attempt that

There is nothing secret about what and why Libertas was set up initally. It was as a think tank to promote democracy, accountability and transparency in the EU. The focus changed a little when the Reform/Lisbon treaty came on the scene but the underlying idea of the persuit of Democracy, Accountability and Transparency remains and I believe it will be at the heart of whatever comes next for Libertas. From what I know of Declan his ideas about Europe are similar to my own in the he sees the way forward as a federal(ish) Europe, but one guided by the will and the vote of the people. There would be no suggestion from Declan, at least, that such an aim should be forced on anybody, that it would only be brought about my selling the benefits of such an option and letting the people make the changes. 

cookiemonster wrote:

There is nothing secret about what and why Libertas was set up initally. It was as a think tank to promote democracy, accountability and transparency in the EU. The focus changed a little when the Reform/Lisbon treaty came on the scene but the underlying idea of the persuit of Democracy, Accountability and Transparency remains and I believe it will be at the heart of whatever comes next for Libertas. From what I know of Declan his ideas about Europe are similar to my own in the he sees the way forward as a federal(ish) Europe, but one guided by the will and the vote of the people. There would be no suggestion from Declan, at least, that such an aim should be forced on anybody, that it would only be brought about my selling the benefits of such an option and letting the people make the changes.

Hardly accurate. Ganley was already suggesting Libertas, and promoting opposition the EU Constitution, before the Constitution was even up for signature. It didn't begin life as a think tank at all, but as a group to oppose the proposed EU reforms. All of that is clear from the first mention of Libertas back in 2003 to the US FPRI.

Great post Edo, made even more interesting by the opening and closing semi-invitation to Libertas to go after Council and European votes, and who knows, maybe even oireachtas votes.

However, I shan't be voting for them in any event.

With regard to civil war politics, I'm glad it's fading away. It's completely moronic. One thing that always irritated me about debate on P.ie was the inevitable references to blueshirts, DeValera, the Treaty and all that 70 year old historical, and now completely irrelevant claptrap.
If I want to discuss my economy or my public services, I want to discuss them in the here'n'now. And into the future. If I wanted a history lesson...etc.
As you say, there is a growing percentage (and now significant) of people who are experiencing the same disassociation with tribal politics in Ireland, and I agree they are becoming ever more influential in the swingometer of the day.
A problem you may not have mentioned is that as well as not caring about party politics, they are not caring about voting. Which I think is a huge problem, because the Government of the day will not be properly repsesentative..obviously.

Getting back to LeoV and Dr. James, these are the gems in the 30th Dáil imho. Just as some people start playing air guitar when ACDC come on the radio, I start playing air boxing when LeoV or Dr.Jim come on the Tele. There was an article in Saturday's Times (I think) about Leo being an upstart and all the talk in LH among the established members having to take him down a peg or two. To those LH members I say don't try to beat him , join him.
Stop doling out the same old shite over and over, protecting your own skin, and making pathethic comparisons to make stuff look rosy. Stop treating citizens like morons. (Some are but most are not)

At least agree on some algorithms for comparing stuff e.g. inflation, so if there is a debate on the radio, the public can hear a debate instead of nihilistic drudge.

Now I forget the rest of your post so I might add some tomorrow.

Zod bless the Irish Labour Party.

Re politics in general, looking at my own family, I can certainly say that, finally with these 30/20-something generations, the old FF/FG divide has faded away. Won't say where the votes have gone, but I doubt either of the main parties get them.

Have to say re the referendum, Libertas nowhere in sight, it was SF wot won it in my area and that doesn't necessarily make me feel good.

Atticus wrote:

Re politics in general, looking at my own family, I can certainly say that, finally with these 30/20-something generations, the old FF/FG divide has faded away. Won't say where the votes have gone, but I doubt either of the main parties get them.

Have to say re the referendum, Libertas nowhere in sight, it was SF wot won it in my area and that doesn't necessarily make me feel good.

Good stuff Atticus. Where did their votes go ?

This thread is a timely step onwards from the "new political parties" thread that discussed Libertas, the PATS party and the conditions on the ground that were opening up the probability of new political parties emerging.

https://machinenation.forumakers.com/the-open-europe-forum-f30/new-political-parties-do-you-get-what-it-says-on-the-tin-t442.htm

Quote :

McEvaddy as we remember has been close to Harney and the PDs and this was not accidental. Libertas may be primed in part to step into the void left by the disintegrating PDs, more street, rougher and tougher than the PDs, and not afraid of piggybacking on disaffected people with a simple, and cynical programme giving a fairly flimsy covering over their Atlanticist/Neo Con affiliations and agenda.

A further question is whether FF with its very broad church will hold together through the tough economic times ahead: its traditional working class vote has had some relief from poverty under the boom, in spite of the widening gap between the property owning rich and those dependent on wages.

Now, with a lot of anger about failure to deliver services, soaring unemployment and rising prices, FF will have to choose whether to continue to look after the rich (with little cover from the PDs), or to shift to a more egalitarian economic stance. There are going to be a lot of angry and frightened people about. As the money will not be there to keep everyone happy, a seismic shift may be on the way.

Both McEvaddy and Ganley are of the right, but Libertas is attempting to be populist - something the far right is well able to play at.

I thought Expatgirl made a good point I think before the UKIP nonsense, that she thought Ganley and McEvaddey were closer politically to the UK eurosceptics line. Maybe all the time we were looking at Ganleys US military connections (of which he has many) we should have been looking closer to home for his real friends.

A good read of Naomi Klein' s the Shock Doctrine might be educational for us in terms of how the right capitalises on economic disasters. Throwing our democratic parties into the dustbin of history might also entail throwing a lot else with them.

CAUEC had a meeting at the weekend. Does anyone know what people came up with there, and do the left groups see an opportunity in this situation?

I don't think there is any substance to Libertas and I don't think there is any future for them either.

Edo's point about FF activism declining is the important point. If activism does decline then FF would suffer and the political landscame would change dramatically.

I don't think the lack of volunteers for the Lisbon campaign shows anything much considering a successful GE campaign was mounted only a year ago. However, if FF HQ persist in trying to increase their control over the selection of candidates for the Local Elections then they will devalue membership of the party and a genuine decline in activism could result.

I suspect that the lack of volunteers for the Lisbon campaign was primarily down to fatigue and knowledge that the LE's are coming up again next year.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

..
I suspect that the lack of volunteers for the Lisbon campaign was primarily down to fatigue and knowledge that the LE's are coming up again next year.

Plus an element of it being too difficult to sell maybe ?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

..
I suspect that the lack of volunteers for the Lisbon campaign was primarily down to fatigue and knowledge that the LE's are coming up again next year.

Plus an element of it being too difficult to sell maybe ?

I don't think so.

Most canvassers don't feel the need to pretend they know all about what they are canvassing for. They will give the spiel, confirm they are canvassing for a candidate/party and will say they are looking for support. If they don't understand something they will get a more knowledgable canvasser to come over and step in or they may take your details. Also, the initial feeling was the Treaty would be passed so it was not perceived as a hard sell.

The main canvassing organisers took time out of their holidays for the GE the year before (probably foregoing a trip to the sun in a terrible summer) and they weren't willing to do it again this year.