Machine Nation Exit Poll - Lisbon Referendum

p.ie
140 Yes
120 No

boards I
746 No
631 Yes

boards II
72 Yes
92 No

Will there be an after-work change in these classes of polls I wonder?

Auditor #9 wrote:

You know you could have introduced her to our wonderful study area here on the portal which is not biased at all oh no.. That Referendum Book was too difficult for people, God love us all if they had to read the full yoke

To paraphrase, truth has a pro-lisbon bias.

Some serious action on betfair in the last few hours. A few big bets on the No side and somebody laid €5 at 50/1 for the Yes side - it has totally ballsed up their graph. They obviously went in and laid all available money. Funnily enough, the previous odds have reasserted themselves.

p.ie
150 yes - 49%
139 no - 45%

boards I
637 - Yes - 36.5%
759 - No - 43.5%

boards II
94 - Yes - 46%
110 - No - 54%

Auditor #9 wrote:

p.ie
150 yes - 49%
139 no - 45%

boards I
637 - Yes - 36.5%
759 - No - 43.5%

boards II
94 - Yes - 46%
110 - No - 54%

The Yes side is pulling ahead here in Machine Nation. Turnout nationally is supposed to be less than great. That leans towards a No vote winning. Low turnout usually means that the No side wins, since the No side are more motivated to vote.

They made a balls of their poll on p.ie

MarkyMark wrote:

Tony_1975 wrote:

MarkyMark wrote:

Tony_1975 wrote:

MarkyMark wrote:

I voted NO

although I clicked yes on this poll because it originally said "have you voted yet"

rather than "how did you vote"

No It didn't.

Yes it did. And I'm not the only one. read back over the pages.

Eh! I wrote it.

well done. you can write

http://www.politics.ie/posting.php?mode=quote&f=172&p=1213177

Ah ! maybe that's why the YES vote went very high earlier on.

What did your dogs decide in the end EVM?!

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0D0E112E-E136-4261-B251-2E341681AA6A.htm

A good balanced report on the polling day from Al Jazeera

Atticus wrote:

What did your dogs decide in the end EVM?!

They decided to eat the RefComm booklet.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Atticus wrote:

What did your dogs decide in the end EVM?!

They decided to eat the RefComm booklet.

Did they arrive at their decision via unanimity or QMV?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Atticus wrote:

What did your dogs decide in the end EVM?!

They decided to eat the RefComm booklet.

Did they arrive at their decision via unanimity or QMV?

Hang on I'll ask them...

I'd say the chihuahua had an opt-out.

Are your dogs interested in poles, Evm?

After a brief paws, this is how the tail stands:

p.ie
Yes - 163
No - 161
Only a few whiskers in it

Boards I
Yes - 655 - 37%
No - 770 - 43%

Boards II
Yes - 114 - 46%
No - 132 - 54%

RTE is reporting a turnout of around 40%. Does this mean a No is looking likely?

God that's shameful - 40% ... why does that effect a No vote in particular? Why isn't there a lower limit on what counts as a valid referendum..

There was someone on the radio earlier today (edit - It was Harry McGee speaking on Matt Cooper's Last Word) saying that around 20% of the population would be die-hard No voters and will vote rain wind or shine, meaning that a turnout under 40% would mean a No, while 40-50% could go either way.

Although there has been commentary during the week saying that a low turnout would be an advantage to the Yes side because the don't know's who would be inclined to vote no would be a lot more apathetic than the Yes voters.
Really this kind of speculation is about as much use as an opinion poll.
We won't really know the result until tomorrow. (Someone said around 2pm? Seems early but I suppose if the turnout is that low the counting won't take too long).

Can I make a broader point? How many people actually visit P.ie etc? Less than 400 actually willing to click a mouse button seems remarkably low. I've wondered now for a while whether stats are artificially high on sites and blogs... I'd have thought given the passion and so forth we'd have seen at least double that number on P.ie. Machine Nation is a bit of a different kettle of fish... so I wouldn't worry about the figure there.

Returning to the actual division, whether won or lost I'm also intrigued by how well the Yes side has held up, against considering the vociferousness and passion of the No side, specifically on P.ie. From participants I'd almost have expected a 70/30 split so the more even division is striking.

Naturally none of this may be reflected in the actual result tomorrow or it may, either way that too will be telling about the nature of the discourse on the internet as against beyond it...

riadach wrote:

I'd say the chihuahua had an opt-out.

I'll set them after you for that, they're Shih tzus.



They ate the Forum on Europe Guide too.

The big Yes vote on p.ie was a turn up I think though the problem with these polls is that they can be influenced. A poll on Boards has 2000 entrants and the No is winning there .43% 36% which I wonder should be slightly more accurate.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055310420

Luckily your dogs aren't crossed with Bulldogs evm else they'd be called bullshits !

Here's a question entirely off the point Auditor, don't you think that if one were constructing a Death Star one would start from the inside out, building up layers like the skins of an onion, not starting one side and then building it across to the other as in the image for your avatar?

I think the P.ie poll was heavily screwed up at the start. There is no way it could have been 80% Yes after first few hours..

WorldbyStorm wrote:

Here's a question entirely off the point Auditor, don't you think that if one were constructing a Death Star one would start from the inside out, building up layers like the skins of an onion, not starting one side and then building it across to the other as in the image for your avatar?

Isn't that the Death Star afterwards?

I thoought it was a death star disintegrating..

WorldbyStorm wrote:

Here's a question entirely off the point Auditor, don't you think that if one were constructing a Death Star one would start from the inside out, building up layers like the skins of an onion, not starting one side and then building it across to the other as in the image for your avatar?

An onion in space? That would be too uncool for George Lucas. Maybe the image is of the death star that got crashed into by a couple of those A1 jets or Star Destroyers !

You bring questions to my mind about Gravity now again ..