The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Can I get an early concession on the horse muck that we will need to clean up after rush hour?

Squire wrote:

Can I get an early concession on the horse muck that we will need to clean up after rush hour?

expatgirl advocates the horse for agriculture - but do horses produce methane?

Has expatgirl tried ploughing with horses? The view is much better astride than behind. There is a fair amount of work in keeping a team of horses.

The ISEQ barely moved today with the index only 0.14 points lower. The oil price fall to below 120 dollars should give a powerful lift to Ryanair and Aer Lingus shares when trading resumes in earnest tomorrow.

Would that be because despite the ISEQ being open for business most investors and brokers have taken the day off, Ard?

johnfás wrote:

Would that be because despite the ISEQ being open for business most investors and brokers have taken the day off, Ard?

Yep. The boys and girls at Davys, Goodbodys, NCB, Dolmen, Merrion and all the other Dublin brokerages would be in varying stages of hangovers across the country today. Perhaps they're building up Dutch courage to deal with the horror show which is the Irish equity market.

cactus flower wrote:

Just reading the Herald Tribune. Signs of the Times that the village shop, that ten years ago stocked only the Indo, the Peoples' Friend and a Man U fanzine now stocks not only the HT but also two Spanish dailies.

Two things caught my eye: one is an article saying that the rising cost of shipping due to oil price rises is pushing relocation of factories closer to consumers in what is being called the "neighbourhood effect". This has lead to a return of factories to Mexico from China and new plants being opened in the US by firms like IKEA, to serve the US market. This will tend to a concentration of production close to the larger and more affluent markets with much shorter supply chains. This is not good for Ireland, with its small population and distance from mass markets.

The other is an editorial on the failure of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organisation talks. It says the "clash between the United States and China and Inda about farm protections underscored how these new economic giants are changing the balance of power". Behind the talks it saw the US backsliding from free trade with massive farm subsidies in this year's farm bill and making preferential trade deals on the quiet. Doha, they say, didn't didn't do much for anyone and in particular not for the developing countries - they were offered reduced tarriffs on 97% of their products, but the existing tarriffs that matter are on the other 3%.

A trend to global retrenchment and reliance on national markets seems to be there, but would this not also mean contraction of the world economy, as protectionism always has in the past? Or are the potential mass markets within China, India and Latin America big enough to keep them going? In any event, US economic global dominance is surely ebbing away?

This is fairly frightening stuff - Ireland produces little and we depend on services for a lot of our wealth but eventually that will shift out too if it isn't already at a horrifying pace too. We are very dependent on external sources of energy and our agriculture isn't diversified enough. Now we're introducing cutbacks in education again ... What is Ireland going to be like in five or ten years? There could be cailíní dancing at the crossroads yet boys.

Squire. Why are you putting the ladies behind or astride horses. Some time ago in a discussion of Stalin I suggested that the ladies should be pulling the ploughs. May not eliminate the methane problem but surely would reduce it somewhat. Don't you agree with this modest proposal to raise the market, reduce unemployment, fight global warming, become energy independent and last but not least show kindness to equines. I see no downside.

Will be interesting to see how the art market holds up in the autumn sales of important Irish art.

Youngdan.

The ladies of Ireland are very fond of power walking early in the morning if you packaged it as a measure to burn off calories and firm up the thigh muscles it may just work. Certainly it would save all the work associated with keeping horses. Mucking out, feeding and grooming are time consuming exercises which have to be factored in when considering horses. However most women are perfectly capable of preforming these functions themselves. Definitely a better option.

How will the ISEQ do this morning. Weather not the best but oil bubble deflating, should start on the up, but doubt if it will last.



johnfás
There should be strong demand for art generally. Rational wisdom would suggest that when times are hard that spending on Art would be less but with economic woes some people tend to jump into precious metals and art and antiques as vehicles that may hold value. Art at the high end will tend to do well. Must confess that it is not something I would sink money into in the hope that it holds value. I would sooner buy a field.

The outlook is less than rosy. I said some time ago that this market was caught in a deflationary spiral. A view held by few. The shell-lacking the metals have taken recently reinforces my view. Heavy selling in platinum and silver. A good lesson is going to be taught to the Paddies now. They deserve it for swallowing the EU baloney hook, line and sinker. The country was easily bought. Printing press cash from the ECB has set them up and now they will get a good shaft.

Squire wrote:

Youngdan.

The ladies of Ireland are very fond of power walking early in the morning if you packaged it as a measure to burn off calories and firm up the thigh muscles it may just work. Certainly it would save all the work associated with keeping horses. Mucking out, feeding and grooming are time consuming exercises which have to be factored in when considering horses. However most women are perfectly capable of preforming these functions themselves. Definitely a better option.

How will the ISEQ do this morning. Weather not the best but oil buble deflating, should start on the up, but doubt if it will last.



johnfás
There should be strong demand for art generally. Rational wisdom would suggest that when times are hard that spending on Art would be less but with economic woes some people tend to jump into precious metals and art and antiques as vehicles that may hold value. Art at the high end will tend to do well. Must confess that it is not something I would sink money into in the hope that it holds value. I would sooner buy a field.

But who would be in the kitchen making your breakfast for you Squire if we were out with Dobbyn and Dolly?

Audi is right to mention energy dependency and education. I see Endessa, the Spanish energy company that owns half of Chile, is going to build a number of gas power stations here at an investment of 900 million. That is not the way we should be going. We should be doing what Spain and Denmark are doing and becoming world leaders in wind and tidal energy and then sell the technology on. We should be energy exporters. This is an opportunity for us to end our energy dependency.

Ireland as one of the most open economies in the world got the first lift from the boom and is getting trashed by the recession. Our advantage is small size, flexibility and ability to find a niche. The EU has taken away much of the flexibility, but not all. This government with its head in the sands is our biggest handicap to finding new solutions.

cactus flower wrote:

becoming world leaders in wind and tidal energy and then sell the technology on. We should be energy exporters. This is an opportunity for us to end our energy dependency.

This government with its head in the sands is our biggest handicap to finding new solutions.

Doubtless I will end up eating the horse food. A bowl of oats with no added sugar. Yum

Agree about the energy sector, I have been saying that since I was at school. Could never understand the dependency on the oil industry and reluctance to encourage investment in the renewable sector.

I wonder if our tourism sector is undergoing serious and dangerous neglect too? We seem to have got to a stage with tourism then stopped and then actively mitigated against it with neglecting our prices.

Ireland could be a bigger destination for tourists with our English language pulling a lot more than it does not to mention the whole idea of Exercise tourism which is terribly unexploited. We might do worse than to promote more cycle lanes, mountainbiking tracks and so on.

On the continent there is an effort to create a cycle route from Brittany to Bulgaria f

Auditor #9 wrote:

I wonder if our tourism sector is undergoing serious and dangerous neglect too? We seem to have got to a stage with tourism then stopped and then actively mitigated against it with neglecting our prices.

Ireland could be a bigger destination for tourists with our English language pulling a lot more than it does not to mention the whole idea of Exercise tourism which is terribly unexploited. We might do worse than to promote more cycle lanes, mountainbiking tracks and so on.

There's a lot more tourism infrastructure here now - hotels and restaurants. There is not much to do outside Dublin, particularly for children. There is a policy now to develop walking routes but this has been dragging on with endless talks between farmers and other interests. There is great potential for walking here but its not easy to get new walking routes set up - you only need one barrier along the route and its banjaxed. One or two really good long distance walking routes would be worth investing a lot in.

ISEQ making somewhat of a recovery so far today. Up 352 points. Still plenty behind even what it was at 5 days ago mind you.

Where's the Ard Taoiseach? Lets crack open a bottle of Bolly.

cactus flower wrote:

Where's the Ard Taoiseach? Lets crack open a bottle of Bolly.

Great to see the ISEQ surging today. I hope it continues into tomorrow and the rest of the week. Ryanair, AIB, Bank of Ireland and others are surging. Tullow is down heavily on the massive fall-off in the oil price, which is almost in bear market territory. Imagine that!

The Irish Stock Exchange must be creaming it at the moment. The volatility and the volume created should be causing a vast rise in the amount of money their making from these trades.

The volatility is unnerving. I suppose a bit of profit taking will soon set in. I just don't think that at the minute there is the will to drive a rally and the budget deficit is cause for consideration.

That said if it keeps bouncing around and not going anywhere for a month or two we should start to see some stability setting in.

Squire wrote:

The volatility is unnerving. I suppose a bit of profit taking will soon set in. I just don't think that at the minute there is the will to drive a rally and the budget deficit is cause for consideration.

You'd think that all the bad news possible is priced in now so the index should be ready set and go for a good rally off the back of the better earnings reports. Back in the day, earnings were the main determinant of price moves and they're rather good this quarter. You'd imagine that that would be driving the index far higher and far faster than it has so far. The number of banks with better-than-expected earnings are amazing and encouraging. A real firm rally should emerge from this, augmented by the fall-off in the price of crude.

Quote :

That said if it keeps bouncing around and not going anywhere for a month or two we should start to see some stability setting in.

Exactly. What we need is a good few months where the index shows a clear and unambiguous bottom. That bottom has not been in evidence for more than two years, the index has fallen too far and too fast for that sort of thing to emerge. A good few months of us treading water would be a signal that this is the bottom and we can expect a big rally into the new year to see us right.

So do you think the Petroleum Pin is sticking in now, Ard-Taoiseach or is the oil price going to surge again soon?

The oil has been falling lately (118 today, Brent was 116) ..... does it have anything to do with the massive contraction in spending by the Americans I wonder? The price of their gas was starting to finally get to them and it is reported that many of them - even youngdan - thought about downsizing to a 3 litre engine.

There was a serious upsurge in news about Chevy Volt and Tesla electric vehicles among others and that, alongside the news of massive wind parks going up in Texas and Arizona and all over possibly gave some fright to speculators.

I'm convinced the Arabs are making biodiesel from algae out in the middle of the deserts of Saudi Arabia and flogging this directly to the world. How they are hiding it from the American spy satellites is beyond me as National Geographic frequently have pictures of giant circular harvesting plants in the desert.

Does the price of oil have such a manifest impact on the Iseq though? It seems to have as one went down the other went up and vice versa. Or is it more to do with the season as Squire says or the fact that we are siamese-twinned with America as (Edo?) says .. Or something else ? But don't think of answering that now - I'm off to the leaba.

Codladh Sámh!

Auditor #9 wrote:

So do you think the Petroleum Pin is sticking in now, Ard-Taoiseach or is the oil price going to surge again soon?

Oil is in a medium-term bubble, and it seems that the Petroleum Pin is indeed sticking in now to correct. I wouldn't be surprised to see it rally again before an even bigger fall. Imo, the oil price should, on average, be rising by about 10-15% a year. Through all these dips, dives, rises and rallies, it should match that general trend.

Quote :

The oil has been falling lately (118 today, Brent was 116) ..... does it have anything to do with the massive contraction in spending by the Americans I wonder? The price of their gas was starting to finally get to them and it is reported that many of them - even youngdan - thought about downsizing to a 3 litre engine.

I'd say so. The oil price hit the pain barrier of the West at around 140 dollars. It was that that really hurt consumers and caused the, "Thusfar, and no further" sentiment to suddenly rise. People just had to react at some point to prices at the pump rolling ever higher.

Quote :

There was a serious upsurge in news about Chevy Volt and Tesla electric vehicles among others and that, alongside the news of massive wind parks going up in Texas and Arizona and all over possibly gave some fright to speculators.

I'm convinced the Arabs are making biodiesel from algae out in the middle of the deserts of Saudi Arabia and flogging this directly to the world. How they are hiding it from the American spy satellites is beyond me as National Geographic frequently have pictures of giant circular harvesting plants in the desert.

Does the price of oil have such a manifest impact on the Iseq though? It seems to have as one went down the other went up and vice versa. Or is it more to do with the season as Squire says or the fact that we are siamese-twinned with America as (Edo?) says .. Or something else ? But don't think of answering that now - I'm off to the leaba.

Well, I'll go ahead and think, my mind's on fire! The price of oil affects the profitability of the likes of CRH, Ryanair, INM, C&C, Aer Lingus, Grafton, Kingspan and so on. It affects their profitability since it adds to their cost of production by raising input costs. That means that earnings are pressurised. That means that valuations have to be re-appraised and adjusted lower to reflect the fact that they aren't going to earn €245 million in the third quarter, more like €205 million. That depresses valuations traders maintain on equities they track and consequently leads to a fall in their real valuations on the exchanges. The effect is entirely the opposite for oil companies.

Quote :

Codladh Sámh!

Go rabih míle!

Oil prices will probably strengthen again as we head towards winter.

What is driving the market here is total lack of confidence. It has been done over good and proper. If you had decided to invest say last Friday and yesterday say a sharp rise the sane thing to do is to take profit and get out for what goes up fast can go down just as fast. A bit of stability in housing would be a major boost to the financial sector.

The problem is the uncertainty and the endless bad news coming out of the USA. You would think by now we would have heard all there was to hear, but it seems not. You have to ask just how bad is the USA economy and what will its impact be on the rest of the world should it utterly stall. Earnings are normally an important factor but not if you your capital may liquidate in front of you eyes.

Very hard to get confidence restored if what we are continuing to see is endless bailouts, Greenspan predicting hell fire, and a culture of spin and cover up. Some of the pronouncements I have heard are so devoid of reality as to be utterly incredible. I can understand people not wanting to make statements that panic the horses, but some of it goes well beyond that. Instead of all the reassurance, as though nothing had happened, we need statesmen with a bit of standing to get on their hind legs and say look this is how it is and this is what we are doing. The market needs 'statesmen' not sycophants and bare faced liars. They are not even good at the spin. The Bush administration is a complete disaster, has as much back bone as jellyfish and a similar tendency to cause pain. Waiting for his departure is like a countdown to Christmas.

On the housing market, isn't the best thing for the market at the moment to let development rest until the housing stock that is there gets fairly well moved on? I was wondering how people who have bought 800/900k houses in Dublin - for a fairly ordinary home too - can sleep at night thinking that their mortgage will be far in excess of the amount their house could be valued at when their mortgage is ultimately paid off. A 900k mortgage will end up as around 2 million so the buyers would expect their house to at least have that value by the end of the 30 years.

Can you really see houses appreciating by that much ?? The physical structure is not worth much more than 250/350k and the location might add another 2-300k but wouldn't that be so unstable if the economic climate were to stay dark for another 5 years?? That would certainly depress the bejaysus out of me - having to pay 2 million for something that might end up being worth 1 million. That's slavery. And what if the economic darkness were to get ever so slightly less dark and prices were to stabilise at a sane value which reflects the true cost of your home ? You might end up with a 2 million loan for something that will be worth 500 million at the end of your life.

Ah the joys of being a mortgage holder.