The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Are you trying to confuse. What is the difference between a bottom and a definate bottom. Was it here That I was talking about deflation. We are seeing some signs of this nasty development. The dollar is strong despite all the bad news. This would be a complete disastor and would be painful for silver buyers as well

I also think we are coming of the bottom. Everyone is a bit hesitant as confidence got a knock. I took a position a few weeks ago when it got into my line in the sand 4200-4500 zone but it was half hearted and bailed out again on the 3 day rally.

Most of what the doom munger are suggesting we already know about. Tales of Armageddon and the new dark age are becoming a bit tiresome. Who will save the world?

youngdan wrote:

Are you trying to confuse. What is the difference between a bottom and a definate bottom. Was it here That I was talking about deflation. We are seeing some signs of this nasty development. The dollar is strong despite all the bad news. This would be a complete disastor and would be painful for silver buyers as well

But Dan right now I can see a bit of a slide or it going no where much. Unless fear sets in this is not going anywhere exciting. Perhaps State side the world looks gloomier? You know my views on the value of western currencies.

Was talking to a colleague earlier who was trying to raise a loan of £160,000 against a property worth 1.25m (and it is worth roughly that amount rental income over 100,000) It is a bit involved and involves buying another property which is a bargain. He is having difficulties and he is as sound as the Rock of Gibraltar with very few liabilities that I am aware off and plenty of property assets (old money). I have now heard a number of such tales. If that is typical of the state of play with credit it would be better that these insolvent entities stopped pretending to be Banks, went under and cleared the field. There is a big difference between lending prudently and throttling money supply completely. No wonder people are not selling houses.

People have no idea how bleak the situation is. They think they won the Cold War but now we have nuclear bombers landing in Cuba. We are given a choice between a nutcase and fruitcake to tackle the KGB Colonel judo champian. Things are getting worse by the second. Why are there American advisers in Georgia.
Meanwhile we are having a bit of rain here and all the local stations have broken in with talk of tornados and doom. We are being advised to go into our basements. The point I am making is the lugs here are prone to really panic when panic does set in.

The trading seen over the past week is a textbook example of a bear market rally. The lads that bought will be sweating bullets tomorrow.

That is similiar to reports from various threads on P.ie. The banks are strapped for cash. It is just a matter of waiting as each monthly economic report is worse than the last.

Thankfully I have some good news. http://www.wacotrib.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/communities/breakingnews/entries/2008/07/24/schwarzenegger_threatens_calif.html

The old raise tax or cut spending arguement seems to be interfering with sane decisions. Imagine a business in difficulties what do you do put up your prices or cut back. On most occasions cut back wins. Not a lot different for State finances.

All the deficit spending really does need to end. If you don't have the money then you don't spend.


EDIT

The nutcase and fruitcake have no chance against the KGB Colonel judo champ, the pair of them would be sold into slavery before they knew what was going on. Sharp operators in mother Russia these days. I truely cannot believe the unblinkered adoration that the fruitcake is receiving. What are they adding to the water supply, LSD?

It is shocking back here. Most have swallowed the rep/dem dog and pony show hook line and sinker. I imagine it is the same with FF/FG where I have never met anyone that can point out any difference between them.
We have 2 Ron Paul candidates who are running as democrats to see if they can pull a stroke.

The craic in Ireland will be brilliant after the first mega bankruptsy hits. The government should really be removed immediately. The tax of 49 billion is about 10000 per head. They need to be tried for treason post haste. The good news is that the fools who favour the Welfare State are going to get a good screwing. The Irish need a new party as soon as possible

Still heading south this morning at 4827.

A failure of the WTO to agree would have its effect - but an agreement would sink our agriculture. Devil and deep blue sea.

cactus flower wrote:

A failure of the WTO to agree would have its effect - but an agreement would sink our agriculture. Devil and deep blue sea.

What would Ireland look like with a sunken agriculture industry? You have been reading Stiglitz and he stresses the need for adjustment given time; we produce meat easily but our nearby markets also do - England and France (?). Our farmers would have new world markets to sell to and develop in if the deal goes through and if it does and our exports of beef sink ...

No loss for me. Someone said recently - kate P - that we produce 34% of our beef needs; there must be some economic rule of thumb that this is uneconomic in the long run. Shouldn't a healthier ratio be more like 3 or 4 times our needs and use the freed-up land for other purposes? I'm thinking of forestry but other foods too - excellent organic vegetables for example. Also I don't think enough land is used for tourism and recreation and could be.

And on the food industry and restaurant business - there's a supermarket in Ennis with a restaurant inside it. The restaurant is always full and there is plenty of space outside the window of the restaurant for five or six more tables without bothering the shoppers walking through. I'm guessing we have laws that make putting five or six tables outside there a royal pain in the hole.

Our food culture is very limited here and we could do worse than to promote more eating out.

Back down to 4617 today.

Squire wrote:

Back down to 4617 today.

One of the Sundays said the Irish banks had between 17 and 25 billion tied up in US subprime funds. Or was that just a nightmare that I had?

I really can't understand the stupidity of Banks. Nudge Nudge mate, got some dodgy loans want to buy? Good commission in there for you Squire! 5 billion, 10 billion no let us round it off to 25.

Does no one check what is going on and what EXACTLY they are buying? Given the nonsense they put the average business through to get an overdraft this is utterly unbelievable. All they have to do to make a good profit is look after the needs of their average customer, but no too easy. This time subprime, last time dot.com, before that what was it loans to South America, I think I have missed a few out but the mentality is the same.

If someone invested 25cents of my money in bad debt I would want to know all about it.

Banks have been up to some seriously dodgy antics lately. I have several stories, which I couldn't repeat for reasons of confidentiality, of muck ups by departments in banks which have cost them an awful lot of money. Just issues of not dotting the i's and crossing the t's.

Quote :

commission

seems to be a lot to do with it.

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

Back down to 4617 today.

One of the Sundays said the Irish banks had between 17 and 25 billion tied up in US subprime funds. Or was that just a nightmare that I had?

Any link CF?

cactus flower wrote:

Quote :

commission

seems to be a lot to do with it.

Absolutely, its the name of the game. I've a relation works in the City in London as an investment guru. His basic salary is a fairly low 40k sterling a year (lowish for his job). However, on top of that he gets 1% of the value of every penny he manages to attract in investments. That's a huge incentive to get money in. He brought in £18 million in business last year, do the maths.

cactus flower wrote:

Quote :

commission

seems to be a lot to do with it.

Indeed!

But you would think there would be some check in the system to stop people throwing money round like confetti. It does not fill one with confidence. Everyone with any sense knew that there was a property bubble. Do they select employees who fail IQ tests? Perhaps so many going to University is a bad thing as they end up in jobs that they cannot comprehend.

I think there must be a fair amount of fraud and it needs to be pursued. (won't happen on any scale)

I will be popping back to London to meet a few colleagues. There is money to be made out of this mess.

Yes, the market theorists are surmising that we didn't take account of the "moral hazard" in commission based systems. "Moral hazard" my ass. Sheer stupidity and incompetence all the way up to the top executives getting the biggest bonuses of them all based on their own short term measures of success. This should be admitted and the blame should be alloted even if individuals are not ultimately sued for breach of fiduciary duty and damages. We also need to look at the management structures that allowed such incompetence to find its way to the top.

Squire wrote:

I will be popping back to London to meet a few colleagues. There is money to be made out of this mess.

See finfacts article about Goldman Sachs making money from CDOs on the way up and on the way down. They had been "war-gaming", as in they were familiar with the risks.
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1011979.shtml

I know the game they are playing and how they package junk. I consider it fraud. What amazes me is how anyone could be so stupid to buy into it.

We are heading into happy hunting season where there will be lots of opportunities at purchasing real bargains. Banks are not developers and they just do not see the potential of a site in quite the same way. What they see is an asset or liability that they want to move on. Happy days are here again.

Moral Hazard is a technical term and it is the exact reason that the whole mess developed.

youngdan wrote:

Moral Hazard is a technical term and it is the exact reason that the whole mess developed.

Means being able to behave like a spoilt brat because daddy is going to bail you out no matter what. Spare the rod spoil the child. They really should be allowed to sink and some of it goes well beyond moral hazard.

Anyway I am starting to sent blood.

Closed the day at 4585.

Not a lot of happiness in the index today. The drop seems entirely due to Elan and would be well up otherwise. This is very bad and we will be in the 3 thousand millium soon