The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Squire. I think things are a lot worse than 1979. Back then the average person was in great shape because they had nothing. Now they have nothing in one pocket and in the other they have credit cards, mortage and car loan. The debt today is much greater in relative terms than then and you also have the derivative monster that nobody can grasp what might ensue if cross defaults kick in.
The quick in and out is easier said than done.

youngdan wrote:

Thanks Auditor.
Why would it be assumed that the banks would be bought by another bank. If a bank has big debts on it's books who would want them. Individual stocks can go against the trend but it is hard to pick them.
...
Should a bank fail then there is a big problem. The shareholders lose everything but I question whether the government could raise the money to cover the depositors up to the level promised.

The debts of the bank would want to be secured by collateral else they're truly shagged, no doubt and I read recently on the property pin that the Irish Banks or at least BOI has its debt secured 70% by mortgages so there isn't a rock bottom the price will go to but down to the value of what the bank owns in collateral.

Again this applies to your last point - if it came to it, the property backing up the bank would be the collateral behind a government pay-out for depositors; the government would get the mortgage repayments from the customers or it would get the houses themselves and so wouldn't have to build more social housing or better, would sell that property and make a killing on the next bubble.

This possibly presumes a lot about what quantity of the debt that BOI possesses is secured by property - it could be a lot less than 70%

The early 70s reads like a mess, high inflation, labour unrest, political instability, currency problems. Yes people owned a lot less because the goods were so much more expensive in real term.

I must admit the levels of personal debt do worry me. As for derivatives aaagh.

That thread in the other place did turn very nasty. There has been an under current of anti foreigner sentiment running for quite some time.

The thread over yonder has been described as the best thread on the site. It is a combination of mirth and dead serious discussion. Posts are relatively few but of high quality. Yesterday however was not a good day for the thread.
I feel immigration is encouraged worldwide to reduce national identities and possibly to promote civil unrest. There is a heap of trouble ahead. This has been deliberate. What Ireland needs is a leader and all it has are politicians who are bought by the money men.
The problem with collateral is that when the crunch comes it frequently happens to be worth a lot less than thought. Roll on tomorrow till we see what the fed does if anything.

I spent my childhood flitting from country to country, from one relation to the next. People the world over generally want enough to live on and peace to go about their business. But then that does not suit the vilest of humanity. These swine, being riven with insecurity, seek to lead and prove their worth. Proving they are of value and powerful is more important than the greater good of all so they preach hate and division, they set race against race and religion against religion. Better to be king of a small hill than one of the many. Fools listen to them, for it is better to blame someone else than accept responsibility for you own woes.

Truly great leaders can unite, remember Hannibal. His multi racial band of mercenaries ran Rome a merry dance for 16 years and came close to decimating Rome. The USA is itself a melting pot. London is another. We tend to look at current divisions but forget the many races that have in the past been accommodated.

If some of the Xenophobes were by chance to find themselves abandoned in darkest Algeria they would be surprised how well they would be treated. Often it is in the wealthier countries that you receive the worst treatment.

Anyone who travels overland from Senegal to Morocco in the hope of getting into Europe to work in my mind is a person worth employing.

What will the ISEQ do today I wonder. Dread to think.

This was a big issue last summer here. We were led to believe that Kennedy and McCain et al care about a lad from say Honduras. A load of poppycock. These lads hate the smell of their own limo drivers even. The illegals are just pawns in the game, as the song says. The great self delusion people have is that Cowen, Brown or Bush gives 2 figs about the Irish, British or Americans. Why do they believe this, because they can not accept reality. The Irish market will most likely spring back a bit in the morning.

Dangerous and interesting times ahead. Great posts from youngdan and the Squire. It is a great comfort that Ireland's No vote was shown in the IT and eurobarometer polls not to be an anti-immigrant vote. My guess is that you would find more of that amongst Yes voters who have more to lose and are panicky. It will be a huge strength if we can hold on to our reason and decency when we're losing a lot of other stuff.

So, heard of any Irish people emigrating to Poland yet?

Perhaps there is hope for us all, the ISEQ is up over 150 points today. Yay!

It seems to have sustained the rally of the morning. The ISEQ is up 137 points today. It'd be nice if this experience was repeated each of the next two days.

Up down up down. These investors have great stamina.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Up down up down. These investors have great stamina.

Yes, it's from all the energy drinks which are on tap across all the major brokerages as traders exchange morning, noon and night.

It's down another 110 points today. Grrr!!!

The ISEQ is treading water with it up over 35 points today. The banks have been savaged this past few months. Bank of Ireland has a market capitalisation of less than €6 billion. That beggars belief. That is smaller than it was years ago. Unbelievable, it is just unbelievable.

I have to say that it is some relief that Tullow, Dragon and Élan have supported the ISEQ. I'd imagine that if we did not have their support, the ISEQ would be somewhere in the neighbourhood of 4000, which would be very bad indeed.

Sigh. I think Youngdan is right. The head of Gazprom was all over the FT today (oil heading for $250 a barrel), all the central banks want to raise interest rates.... property will be lucky if it maintains 50% of its value across the Anglosphere... and since this is where the biggest Temples of Mammon are located, expect some big banking casualties... bye, bye collateral, jobs etc

I should point out that before/during the Russian Revolution, the St Petersburg stock exchange sank slowly to zero

maybe youngdan is a bull

on the plus side, the sheikhs seem to want to spend their oily profits on Western banks, and if alternatives can be slowly phased in to stabilize energy costs, we can calm the beast down

The best thing governments can do is to equip people to work in the transport, renewables and agriculture sectors, prop up science and technology, and beg the oil companies to come prospect in their offshore waters.

we'll need all the divine help we can get, too

expat girl wrote:

Sigh. I think Youngdan is right. The head of Gazprom was all over the FT today (oil heading for $250 a barrel), all the central banks want to raise interest rates.... property will be lucky if it maintains 50% of its value across the Anglosphere... and since this is where the biggest Temples of Mammon are located, expect some big banking casualties... bye, bye collateral, jobs etc

I should point out that before/during the Russian Revolution, the St Petersburg stock exchange sank slowly to zero

maybe youngdan is a bull

on the plus side, the sheikhs seem to want to spend their oily profits on Western banks, and if alternatives can be slowly phased in to stabilize energy costs, we can calm the beast down

The best thing governments can do is to equip people to work in the transport, renewables and agriculture sectors, prop up science and technology, and beg the oil companies to come prospect in their offshore waters.

we'll need all the divine help we can get, too

Well expatgirl, as Minister for the Environment in the Machine Nation, I would be very glad if you would accept a Ministry of State of your choice, or a Consultancy role.

If the next Cowen budget is not focused on energy, we may have to offer ourselves up to the people as an alternative regime.

The sheiks are just doing what they are told. They know that money is dead money but in the meantime they are doing very well indeed. The want the Americans to knock out their last serious enemy which will at the same time increase their revenues. A few billion to Citigroup is a small price to pay

A collapse of the West would not suit the sheiks. If the economies of the west crash so will their ability to interfere in the region. How long would you give the Custodian of the two Mosques without western support?

The serious threat for the Saudi Royal family lies in their own country.

There is a lot we could do to reduce our oil consumption right now, it needs a concerted effort and leadership. It would cause a few flutters and a short term fall in confidence but appealing to the nations is always a good strategic move. Give your aluminium sauce pans to build spitfires sort of nonsense, none was ever used but people like positive action and involvement. However car sharing and turning heating off would have an immediate effect on consumption. Right now how many percent drop in consumption would it take to burst this bubble? Do that and we buy time.

Everyone including the Chinese are locked into a devils contract. Big winner if all goes belly up would probably be Russia.

Worth remembering that unlike the 30's we rely more on transport of the basics like food. Flowers from Brazil, veg from Kenya. The CAP could look far sighted if things got really bad.

This is one of the graphs that is going in the right direction at the moment. That it isn't predictable should be the challenge to us. It all gets down to basics and basic elements in the end doesn't it ? It's the immediate things that are important. (Apparently the Web 2.0 world is starting to thrive in the recession according to RTE news at six; could be that it's a medium which lends itself well to creativity, a thing often unrecognised unrewarded and unprioritised in a time when money is flying left right and centre. We could see the best from the Net yet during this crash)

Squire wrote:

The CAP could look far sighted if things got really bad.

Heh ! Simpler times ahead Squire ? Wouldn't be a bad thing at all. (there goes the Star Trek vision of the world anytime soon - or does it ?)

The sheaks have only one serious enemy which is Iran. They want the Israelis to attack. The fear their own people but while they have the boogie man jew they are sitting pretty.

All talk of going back to the 1980s is nonsense. We are heading into a permanent shift on oil consumption - whether because of supply or climate change no sane people will want to remain at the level of oil dependency at which we are operating now.
Our world population is much higher, and it has grown on the back of oil extraction and a paper boom that is dissipating around us faster than we can take in. I agree with the Squire that there are solutions through conservation and with Auditor #9 that information technology gives us an edge on previous crises. Also that the CAP contains both bathwater and baby. Expatgirl keeps telling us that we need draught horses and that they don't grow overnight. If we can produce food and house ourselves in good well insulated houses we are a lot of the way there. Some kind of plan seems to be called for.

cactus flower wrote:

Well expatgirl, as Minister for the Environment in the Machine Nation, I would be very glad if you would accept a Ministry of State of your choice, or a Consultancy role.

If the next Cowen budget is not focused on energy, we may have to offer ourselves up to the people as an alternative regime.

Well I'm Taoiseach and I've already decided expat girl is the MoS at the Department of Agriculture. She can co-operate with your policies from that position.

It wasn't a good day for the ISEQ with 86 points lost by the Overall index today. AIB, BOI, IL&P and Anglo all remain under pressure at their knock-down valuations.

Looks like sub 5K territory soon.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Looks like sub 5K territory soon.

Indeed. It just keeps on falling. It has gone beyond a joke now. Bank of Ireland has a ludicrous 11% dividend yield. That is way too high.

Closed at 4890 today and holiday months ahead.