Progress and Trouble in Pakistan

Baitullah Mehsud has an aversion to publicity and photographs

Top Pakistan militant calls truce
Efforts to sort out Pakistan's tribal problems have yielded fruit with the declaration of a truce by military leader Baitullah Mehsud, in return for a withdrawal of troops and the release of the founder of another group of militants. Importantly, the tribes will expell foreign fighters from their territory, which will give the Afghan Taliban a harder time.

The Americans and many on the ground are sceptical, as such deals in the past have been counter-productive. But it should be given the benefit of the doubt, specially since the previous hard-man tactics were simply not working.

I love responding to my own opening threads, it has all the fun of taking to oneself but without the assosiated fears of dementia.

A bomb went off in Pakistan, killing five people. Al Jazeera is downplaying its signifigance, blaming splinter groups. This would mean that the fledgling peace initiative is safe.
Deadly bomb blast in Pakistan

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I believe there was an attack on the Prime Ministers motorcade yesterday, just emphases the state of the country.

Squire wrote:

I believe there was an attack on the Prime Ministers motorcade yesterday, just emphases the state of the country.

The US incursions and killings in Pakistan seem to be becoming a habit.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26522492/

cactus flower wrote:

Squire wrote:

I believe there was an attack on the Prime Ministers motorcade yesterday, just emphases the state of the country.

The US incursions and killings in Pakistan seem to be becoming a habit.

[url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26522492/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26522492/[/quote[/url]] Are you saying the Americans went for the PM?!

Seriously though, ground asaults are quite a step-up.

Very serious development. If they keep on in this fashion it could ignite Pakistan. In many ways these border regions are a problem for parts of the Pakistan government. Is the US acting with a nod from sectors of the government or unilaterally?

Partial results announced by officials after separate votes in the federal and provincial assemblies indicate that Asif Ali Zardari won an overwhelming majority of the votes and will succeed as President.

Now question is who is that likely to annoy most, Islamic extremists or the USA? I am not so sure that he is anywhere near as supportive of US policy in the region as his predecessor. I would say his ability to get life insurance has just become zero.

Squire wrote:

Very serious development. If they keep on in this fashion it could ignite Pakistan. In many ways these border regions are a problem for parts of the Pakistan government. Is the US acting with a nod from sectors of the government or unilaterally?

The Pakistani government have been very clear that they resent such intrusions, which do little but create more unwanted instability. They may be short-term gains for Afghanistan but in the long-term they bring Islamists closer to power in Pakistan. It's out of desperation they act, I think.

Squire wrote:

Partial results announced by officials after separate votes in the federal and provincial assemblies indicate that Asif Ali Zardari won an overwhelming majority of the votes and will succeed as President.

Now question is who is that likely to annoy most, Islamic extremists or the USA? I am not so sure that he is anywhere near as supportive of US policy in the region as his predecessor. I would say his ability to get life insurance has just become zero.

He is a member of the pro-Western party, while the coalition partners are seen as pro-Islamic or pro-Saudi at least. I doubt much power will rest with him, so his election is not important. His party share many similarites with Musharraf (an aversion to the judiciary and a pro-Western outlook), and it is this that will guide his presidency.

I wonder if there is any substance in his nickname Mr 10%?

More of the same in a country that is slipping into anarchy and a new President who has all sorts of memory lapses and convenient physiological disorders. Just the man to have a finger on the nuclear button. The party he leads has what 14%-15% of the vote?

Squire wrote:

I wonder if there is any substance in his nickname Mr 10%?

More of the same in a country that is slipping into anarchy and a new President who has all sorts of memory lapses and convenient physiological disorders. Just the man to have a finger on the nuclear button. The party he leads has what 14%-15% of the vote?

I'm sure it's more than that, wiki has it at 30% (link). Together with their shaky coalition partners, the governmment has about 50% of the vote.

He's from a pretty dodgy pedigree. What's with the 10% name?

905 wrote:

Squire wrote:

I wonder if there is any substance in his nickname Mr 10%?

More of the same in a country that is slipping into anarchy and a new President who has all sorts of memory lapses and convenient physiological disorders. Just the man to have a finger on the nuclear button. The party he leads has what 14%-15% of the vote?

I'm sure it's more than that, wiki has it at 30% (link). Together with their shaky coalition partners, the governmment has about 50% of the vote.

He's from a pretty dodgy pedigree. What's with the 10% name?

Plenty of our politicians could be had for 5% or less.

Boy does he have a past, corruption, attempted murder! Watch for political infighting. Political parties there seem to be family fiefdoms.

I was pondering the future role of the military and will he start to reduce some powers of the President?

Some in the Pakistani army claim to have fired on American helicopters attempting to cross the borders. It's not clear yet exactly what happened.

905 wrote:

Some in the Pakistani army claim to have fired on American helicopters attempting to cross the borders. It's not clear yet exactly what happened.

I've been reading over the last few days that Bush has authorised attacks on Pakistan's territory, without any agreement with the Pakistan government.

The US has been carrying out air attacks over the last few weeks and is now proposing to send troops over the border against what they call a "common insurgency". Civilians are being killed and there seems to be, unsurpringly, a lot of anger in Pakistan.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7611287.stm

It's a pretty brash move by the Americans, even given their record. Hopefully it'll be the last bit of unilateralism by that government. Turkey had been up to something similar in Iraq earlier this year, much to the annoyance of the US.

905 wrote:

It's a pretty brash move by the Americans, even given their record. Hopefully it'll be the last bit of unilateralism by that government. Turkey had been up to something similar in Iraq earlier this year, much to the annoyance of the US.

Well they went again, and Pakistani troops have fired on US helicopters. According to Associated Press the Pakistani Government have warned the US that they will fire on any US troops who cross the border.

http://www.examiner.ie/irishexaminer/pages/story.

Does the US think they can pull off a cross border "surge" and deliver a defeat of the Taliban before the election?

Posts about the Marriot Hotel bombing were lost.

The Pakistani Government are now saying that the heads of Government had planned to be eating there (breaking Ramadan fast) and had changed plans at the last moment.

No one has claimed the bombing.

On face value that looks like an inside job.

The situation in Pakistan seems to be going down hill fast.

CNN reporting that the head of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, is either dead or almost dead!!?!(of liver failure). Mehsud was the brains behind the Bhutto killing, according to CNN.

From mid November the Taliban has been hitting NATO/US supply lines to Afghanistan via Pakistan.

Today 65 1 - 100 trucks were burnt out outside Peshawar by a 250 strong force who surrounded a depot.
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/07-Dec-2008/Taliban-torch-Nato-supply-trucks

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1212156



It seems that the increase US attacks inside Pakistan are resulting in more widespread resistance. What a surprise.

Hold on now, that's a bit of a leap. One could easily argue that more strikes are clearly necessary, or that these attacks are a response to the effectiveness of earlier 'strikes'.

Is there anythig to suggest that this is really an increase in attacks? Americans have been telling us for ages that their assailants have been coming from over that border.

If there is an increase in attacks, one could ascribe it to many factors. They've been telling us that the Taliban have been growing ayway, regardless of what happens in Pakistan.

905 wrote:

Hold on now, that's a bit of a leap. One could easily argue that more strikes are clearly necessary, or that these attacks are a response to the effectiveness of earlier 'strikes'.

Is there anythig to suggest that this is really an increase in attacks? Americans have been telling us for ages that their assailants have been coming from over that border.

If there is an increase in attacks, one could ascribe it to many factors. They've been telling us that the Taliban have been growing ayway, regardless of what happens in Pakistan.

Quote :

They were shouting Allah-o-Akbar (God is Great) and Down With America. They broke into the terminals after snatching guns from us,” said Mohammad Rafiullah, security guard of a terminal.

Last month, the government closed the main supply route to Western forces in Afghanistan for a week after militants hijacked more than a dozen trucks on the road through Khyber Pass.

There have been worrying signs this year that Islamist militancy has spread to the area from more distant tribal regions where the Taliban and al-Qaida have taken root.

It sounds as if it might have been quite spontaneous, but the reporting is not very detailed. The supply chain issue (Khyber Pass) has been a difficulty for foreign armies in Afghanistan for as far back as there have been attempts at occupation.

Another big supply-line hit in Peshawar: Over 100 trucks carrying hummers etc. yesterday, and another couple of dozen today. Obama has headlined his determination to win a war in Afghanistan. This whole thing is very volatile.

Quote :

08/12/2008 - 13:26:24
Suspected militants have attacked another terminal in northwest Pakistan for trucks ferrying supplies to Nato and US forces in Afghanistan.

The attack early today in Peshawar was the second in as many days in the city on a transit area for Afghanistan-bound trucks.

Terminal labourer Altaf Hussain says there was a loud explosion and several militants stormed the facility.

A reporter at the scene saw several dozen torched military vehicles that were to be trucked to Afghanistan.

Up to 75% of the supplies for Nato and US troops in landlocked Afghanistan first pass through Pakistan