Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

Quote :

Many market buyers of the derivative securities were mindful and somewhat suspicious of the price of their securities due to the absence of a more transparent pricing mechanism.

Mark 'em up and sell 'em on?

How come they accepted them? The obvious question was how would defaults be handled? But then I suppose this mish mash was insured and the credit ratings were high.

One hell of a big clean up is required. People get jailed for not paying their TV licence. We need to put a rake of these lads behind bars.



Paulson did huge damage in my opinion, in that he squandered any opportunity of transparent, rational and decisive action. The big plus is that we all got to see these boys in action.

Perhaps we should keep an eye out for anyone getting jailed over this?? So far, the score looks like zero, but I wonder.....

expat girl wrote:

Perhaps we should keep an eye out for anyone getting jailed over this?? So far, the score looks like zero, but I wonder.....

The F.B.I. is investigating...

Think it's time our TD's took a salary drop of in the region of 10%. I love this bullshit that they come out with "I could earn more in the private sector, you should be happy that I'm in the public sector". What a load of nonsense. The lowliest Teachta Dála earns €100k per year, excluding expenses. The Brightwater Salary Survey for 2008 demonstrates that to earn that kind of money in the professional sector you would have to be a qualified solicitor in a Dublin firm with 6-10 years experience. Half the TDs couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. Ninety five percent of the people working in the private sector on the salary of even the lowliest TD could do a better job than them.

Move onto the Ministers who earn well in excess of €200k a year. I hate to blow the illusion these guys want to put up for you. Most commercial partners in the large law and accountancy firms do not earn that money from their job on an annual basis. They may make well in excess of that from the investments they have made with their earnings but the Government Minister gets this too.

Time that the electorate bashed these idiots down to the level they deserve.

johnfás wrote:

Think it's time our TD's took a salary drop of in the region of 10%.

I was wondering if their pay should be structured in a more modern and responsive manner in order to cater for the risk they are willing to take and reflect the health of the overall economy. We could bundle the lot together in a high grade salary holding and then slice it up. Returns could be indexed and pegged to a tracker of our overall economic performance. Those that are risk averse could settle for the portion that gives the least return and those that are optimists could go for the sub prime governmental portion. They could even sell their portions of the overall package to each other and earn commissions or derive profit or hedge against economic downturns by entering into contracts to buy and sell to each at pre agreed prices at a some later date.

Much simpler.

Squire wrote:

johnfás wrote:

Think it's time our TD's took a salary drop of in the region of 10%.

I was wondering if their pay should be structured in a more modern and responsive manner in order to cater for the risk they are willing to take and reflect the health of the overall economy. We could bundle the lot together in a high grade salary holding and then slice it up. Returns could be indexed and pegged to a tracker of our overall economic performance. Those that are risk averse could settle for the portion that gives the least return and those that are optimists could go for the sub prime governmental portion. They could even sell their portions of the overall package to each other and earn commissions or derive profit or hedge against economic downturns by entering into contracts to buy and sell to each at pre agreed prices at a some later date.

Much simpler.

I agree johnfás only the cute hoors would be taking bribes left right and center if their salaries were lower, or so the story goes. Did you see what 17 Fás dudes spent in Kilkenny at the weekend? €12000 !! They all drove from Dublin in 17 cars (at least the Greens car-share or train it) with a charge of 78 cents per kilometer out of the public purse. Their food cost 500 euros each for the weekend and the rooms from €190 - €260.

There should be a cap on public spending relative to GDP or GNP with a cap at a certain level if the economy is going well. They should also have to fund part of junkets themselves.

They get away with it, we bend over, it'll never change.

It is just pure madness. Like honestly, these lads kid you. Any junior in a private sector firm could do better than the average TD. Any person in a senior position would be able to do a better job than the ministers. Despite what the TDs would have you believe, despite all this, they earn more than the private sector, even when you ignore their pensions.

Mary Coughlan - Social Worker - Minister for Enterprise*
Noel Dempsey - School Teacher - Minister for Transport*
Brendan Smith - Degree in Politics - Minister for Agriculture*
Martin Cullen - Wine Rep - Minister for the Arts*
Eamon Ryan - Belfield Bike Shop - Minister for Communications
Eamon O'Cuiv - Manager of Gaeltacht Cooperative - Minister of Gaeltacht
Willie O'Dea - Barrister & Accountant - Minister for Defence*
Batt O'Keefe - Lecturer - Minister for Education*
John Gormley - Head of Academy of European Languages - Minister for Environment
Brian Lenihan - Barrister - Minister for Finance
Michael Martin - Secondary School Teacher - Minister for Foreign Affairs*
Mary Harney - Career Politician (+ HDip) - Minister for Health*
Dermont Ahern - Solicitor - Minister for Justice
Mary Hanafin - Teacher - Minister for Social & Family Affairs*

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What are the Ministers highlighted in Red doing in those positions? What have they done outside of politics which qualifies them to lead those departments? How are their qualifications and outside Dáil experience relevant to the job they are doing?

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The Ministers with an asterix * have never served in a management position outside of their Dáil careers. Who do we have that is better than this and has managed something? If not, it is a poor show that we have such a shower in the Dáil.

I don't have a bother with what their "real life" jobs were. The problem is they are no good at their present jobs. There have been plenty of great politicians who weren't working within their own comfort zone. It requires hard work, focus, communication skills and a grasp of policy making. Oh, and public spiritedness.

Can I take it that you think wine rep- and Min. for Arts is a good match ?

johnfás wrote:

Mary Coughlan - Social Worker - Minister for Enterprise*
Noel Dempsey - School Teacher - Minister for Transport*
Brendan Smith - Degree in Politics - Minister for Agriculture*
Martin Cullen - Wine Rep - Minister for the Arts*
Eamon Ryan - Belfield Bike Shop - Minister for Communications
Eamon O'Cuiv - Manager of Gaeltacht Cooperative - Minister of Gaeltacht
Willie O'Dea - Barrister & Accountant - Minister for Defence*
Batt O'Keefe - Lecturer - Minister for Education*
John Gormley - Head of Academy of European Languages - Minister for Environment
Brian Lenihan - Barrister - Minister for Finance
Michael Martin - Secondary School Teacher - Minister for Foreign Affairs*
Mary Harney - Career Politician (+ HDip) - Minister for Health*
Dermont Ahern - Solicitor - Minister for Justice
Mary Hanafin - Teacher - Minister for Social & Family Affairs*

---

What are the Ministers highlighted in Red doing in those positions? What have they done outside of politics which qualifies them to lead those departments? How are their qualifications and outside Dáil experience relevant to the job they are doing?

---

The Ministers with an asterix * have never served in a management position outside of their Dáil careers. Who do we have that is better than this and has managed something? If not, it is a poor show that we have such a shower in the Dáil.

I like the emphasis on Harney having NEVER worked in the private sector in her life, yet is incredibly keen for others to enjoy the (dubious) benefits of privatisation.

I also find it somewhat ironic that a 60-a-day man is the Minister for Sport.

It really is a sorry bunch.

I paid my tv licence bill so I'm entitled to get something back from RTE godammem. Employment down, unemployment up. - by 50% on the same time last year. The CSO says it's at 244,500 on the live register now.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1001/jobs.html

Quote :

New figures show that the number of people signing on the Live Register increased at a record rate of almost 50% in the year to September.

The Central Statistics Office said the seasonally adjusted figure for September was 244,500, an increase of 9,400 from August.

The unadjusted figure fell back by just over 7,000 to 240,217, but the September figure usually drops as students return to college. The unadjusted figure is up 49.5% since the same period last year, beating the previous month's record rise of 42%.
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The unemployment rate moved up from 6.1% in August to 6.3%. The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted figure was made up of 5,800 men and 3,500 women.

Reacting to the figures, Tánaiste Mary Coughlan said the downturn in the economy inevitably leads to an increase in the number of unemployed.

The Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment said FÁS would have to be refocused to allow people who fall into unemployment to immediately sign up to training services with the agency.

She stressed that the job pipeline looked good with new announcements to be made in the coming weeks.

Ms Coughlan said the measures being taken this week by the Government will copper fasten the countries position and create a sustainable economy.

Ms Coughlan said foreign direct investment would continue to remain strong and will see greater growth between now and the end of next year.

She described the Government support for banks as a bold move which would send out a string message to the world that the Government in control and supporting the banking system, which she said was the basis of the Irish economy.

Minister Coughlan said new opportunities across the world were continually being examined and the latest move by the Government was a clear signal that Ireland is still very much open for business.

She said employment policy would continue to be structured to reflect the needs of the Irish economy.

Don't they know what unemployment can do to a man ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtYzk0HnL_k&feature=related

Finfacts on the unemployment news

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The Irish Live Register total increased from 235,100 in August to 244,500 in September, an increase of 9,400. In the year to September 2008, there was an unadjusted increase of 79,565 (+49.5%). This compares with an unadjusted increase of 73,178 (+42.0%) in the year to August 2008. The standardised unemployment rate in September was 6.3%, according to the CSO. The Live Register is the highest since December 1997.


Other features include:

The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of an increase of 5,800 males and an increase of 3,500 females.

The standardised unemployment rate in September was 6.3%. This compares with 5.1% in the second quarter of 2008, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.

In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 12,700 males and 15,521 females.

The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for March to May 2008, is 115,100 persons unemployed.

The Irish Examiner reported last month that the scale of unemployment is far worse than official figures show because another 38,000 people are stuck in a backlog waiting for their dole claims to be processed, the newspaper has learned.

Social welfare offices across the country may have to take on extra staff to cope with the dramatic increase in dole applicants in recent months, the Irish National Organisation for the Unemployed (INOU) said.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits is measured by the Live Register, compiled by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) from figures supplied by social welfare offices nationwide.

There were 247,384 people on the register in August, according to the most recent CSO figures.

But 37,923 people spent much of August waiting for their dole applications to be processed, according to data from the Department of Social and Family Affairs.

If their claims are genuine, and had they been processed more quickly, the register would stand at more than 285,000.

http://www.finfacts.com/irishfinancenews/article_1014866.shtml

P.ie discussion on this

right, recession is here. without blaming people (FF and tonys i'm looking at ye!) for squandering the best years of the republic, what can we do?

1. trim the fat from the public sector
2. maintain spending on capital projects (even at the risk of reducing the public sector paybill).
3. raid that fecking national pension fund, its basically a rainy day fund, and we're in noah territory at the moment.
4. abolish stamp duty and raise a property tax on investment homes and second and third homes (incl homes abroad). either that or reintroduce rates.
5. feck the maastrict protocols and kyoto agreement (at the moment, all bets should be off until we stabilise our economy/see off and potential bank failures).
6.draw a line under current projects and set up a commission for "value for money" projects. any govt deals and ppp deals have to be vetted to ensure taxpayers interest are being served. i.e no giving away of mineral rights, no writing open ended contracts to get infrastructure built, no really soft deals with the private sector like the west link. although i'm idealogically apposed to him but i reckon someone like jim higgins would keep the people's interests at heart and would be less likely to be bought/toe the party line.
7. i'd start an investigation into shabby bank practices, if neary refuses to robustly investigate then i'd fire him and send in the c&ag, cab and the gardai. i'd start with enforcing the obligations of directors to safeguard the assets of a company.

zakalwe wrote:

right, recession is here. without blaming people (FF and tonys i'm looking at ye!) for squandering the best years of the republic, what can we do?

1. trim the fat from the public sector
2. maintain spending on capital projects (even at the risk of reducing the public sector paybill).
3. raid that fecking national pension fund, its basically a rainy day fund, and we're in noah territory at the moment.
4. abolish stamp duty and raise a property tax on investment homes and second and third homes (incl homes abroad). either that or reintroduce rates.
5. feck the maastrict protocols and kyoto agreement (at the moment, all bets should be off until we stabilise our economy/see off and potential bank failures).
6.draw a line under current projects and set up a commission for "value for money" projects. any govt deals and ppp deals have to be vetted to ensure taxpayers interest are being served. i.e no giving away of mineral rights, no writing open ended contracts to get infrastructure built, no really soft deals with the private sector like the west link. although i'm idealogically apposed to him but i reckon someone like jim higgins would keep the people's interests at heart and would be less likely to be bought/toe the party line.
7. i'd start an investigation into shabby bank practices, if neary refuses to robustly investigate then i'd fire him and send in the c&ag, cab and the gardai. i'd start with enforcing the obligations of directors to safeguard the assets of a company.

You can stop looking at me for a start.

1. How many times have we heard that?
2. We can’t maintain spending on them all
3. No real problem with that, so long as it’s productive and not for everyday use.
4. Leave the property market alone for the moment, let it find its own level.
5. No.
6. Don’t mind commissions, a waste of time & money. 1 person with a small staff & the power to make decisions + outside advice as they need it.
If you mean Joe Higgins, I can’t even begin to answer that suggestion.
7. By all means find out how & why and regulate against for the future. Leave the guards & CAB out of it, overreaction never serves anyone, ask the people of Salem.

[quote="zakalwe"]right, recession is here. without blaming people (FF and tonys i'm looking at ye!) for squandering the best years of the republic, what can we do?

Quote :

1. trim the fat from the public sector

The last people who should be allowed to do any cutting would be management. Ask the staff how to cut out waste and they will tell you.

Quote :

2. maintain spending on capital projects (even at the risk of reducing the public sector paybill).

Cut Metro North, a ridiculous vanity project winding a little noddy train through the leafy Drumcondra suburbs. Suspend any new motorway projects and shift investment into a massive renewables programme, Denmark style.

Quote :

3. raid that fecking national pension fund, its basically a rainy day fund, and we're in noah territory at the moment.

Increase the higher band of tax.

Quote :

4. abolish stamp duty and raise a property tax on investment homes and second and third homes (incl homes abroad). either that or reintroduce rates.

This would have been a good thing to do up to two years ago, but now it would just push more houses onto a flooded market. Yes to reintroducing rates.

5. feck the maastrict protocols and kyoto agreement (at the moment, all bets should be off until we stabilise our economy/see off and potential bank failures).

Ireland could be energy self sufficient. The reasons for doing it are as much economic and environmental.

Quote :

6.draw a line under current projects and set up a commission for "value for money" projects. any govt deals and ppp deals have to be vetted to ensure taxpayers interest are being served. i.e no giving away of mineral rights, no writing open ended contracts to get infrastructure built, no really soft deals with the private sector like the west link. although i'm idealogically apposed to him but i reckon someone like jim higgins would keep the people's interests at heart and would be less likely to be bought/toe the party line.

Agree with value for money and an end to "soft deals" i.e. gifts from the taxpayer to the tax avoider.

Quote :

7. i'd start an investigation into shabby bank practices, if neary refuses to robustly investigate then i'd fire him and send in the c&ag, cab and the gardai. i'd start with enforcing the obligations of directors to safeguard the assets of a company.

Neary should have gone a month ago. Good point about Company Law.

There is a lot of "softening up" talk about means testing for child allowance and college fees. That would be very expensive to administer and would hit children and young people. A far simpler and more cost effective measure would be a simple increase in income tax on higher incomes.

Looking at the fate of Iceland, and the madness of the Irish Bank Guarantee, national bankruptcy is a bigger fear than a difficult budget. The "terms and conditions" of the scheme still don't seem to be published.

New figures from the Department of Finance show that the Government is expected to take in €1.1bn less in taxes next year than it did this year due to the continuing economic recession.

Quote :

After allowing for cuts in non-pay expenditure in all Government departments, the general Government deficit will be as high as 7% of GDP, before any changes to social welfare payments and tax rates are announced in next Tuesday's budget.

One of the largest fiscal deficits in the industrialised world --George Lee

Quote :

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan will have up to €10bn less in taxes in 2009 than he was expecting only 12 months ago.

Unless Minister Lenihan raises taxes or cuts spending further in the budget, he will have to borrow €15bn to run the country next year.

RTE

Uh-oh, it's looking like it's back to the eighties ...

Quote :

'Public services budget just €42bn' - Breaking News

The Government will have to run the country’s public services with just €42bn in 2009, projected figures showed today.

Public spending is set to increase by just 2.5% to €42bn in 2009 and the Government will have to borrow heavily to compensate for dwindling tax revenue.

The growing dole queues mean the Department of Social and Family Affairs has been given an extra €600m in 2009.

The Department of Education and Science gets an additional €225m while the Health Service Executive also received a funding increase of €180m to €12bn.

Department of Finance officials reiterated that total revenue for 2008 will be €42.4bn, about €6.5bn less than forecast earlier this year.

Commenting on the Estimates, the Labour Party said the figures outlined a remarkable deterioration in the country’s economic situation in just 12 months.

Hmm - indeed: at least our banks haven't collapsed yet, thank God

Not today Auditor #9.

I recommend this discussion of the Irish economy on rgemonitor
http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/559#121980#121980

One contributor says that it took Germany a ten year wages freeze to get out of a similar predicament of non competitivity.

cactus flower wrote:

Not today Auditor #9.

I recommend this discussion of the Irish economy on rgemonitor
http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/559#121980#121980

One contributor says that it took Germany a ten year wages freeze to get out of a similar predicament of non competitivity.

Someone else says we've been in a 'catch-up' process which is normal and that our GDP is a positive factor. How long will it take for us to return to ... normal though and have we been wriggling out of too many European obligations and directives that would have been better for us had we adhered to them? Water quality is one and surely we should have been looking to Europe in terms of house price regulation all along too - I really think builders got away with lots of freebies during that boom and they needed to be taxed without adding the cost to the buyer. A tax on profit maybe or a profit-ceiling, higher building standards imposed... Someone said there that the house building industry was 14% of our production and that for every 10,000 houses not built, 1% growth disappeared from Ireland.

From today's SBP there's some news about the budget - an income levy being the headline budget news. This will be a 1% tax increase -
This new levy is expected to be a 1 per cent charge on income above a certain earnings threshold, with the possibility of a higher charge for top earners. so it will work as though income tax were increased but .. It would have a similar impact as an increase in income tax rates, but have the political advantage of being presented as a temporary measure to be removed when the exchequer finances improve. So much for the mad generous auction politics of the GE campaigns and the carrot and stick income tax cuts. Is an adjustable rate of tax a good measure though? I've a feeling it should be adjusted UP in the good times though, not the other way around.

from SBP article

Eamon Ryan is on the Week in Politics now and he's "not saying anything about what's in the Budget - wait until Tuesday"... Isn't Santa Claus dead? Why are we treated like this with the "wait for the surprises" shite? Would it mess with the bookies odds? This is no way to continue dealing with an electorate - the wait and see thing. Will people ever be treated like adults?

Auditor #9 wrote:

Eamon Ryan is on the Week in Politics now and he's "not saying anything about what's in the Budget - wait until Tuesday"... Isn't Santa Claus dead? Why are we treated like this with the "wait for the surprises" shite? Would it mess with the bookies odds? This is no way to continue dealing with an electorate - the wait and see thing. Will people ever be treated like adults?

Budgets are always a State secret before they are announced since a leakage of statements about what is in the budget could have an unnecessarily disruptive impact on the economic affairs of the nation.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Eamon Ryan is on the Week in Politics now and he's "not saying anything about what's in the Budget - wait until Tuesday"... Isn't Santa Claus dead? Why are we treated like this with the "wait for the surprises" shite? Would it mess with the bookies odds? This is no way to continue dealing with an electorate - the wait and see thing. Will people ever be treated like adults?

Budgets are always a State secret before they are announced since a leakage of statements about what is in the budget could have an unnecessarily disruptive impact on the economic affairs of the nation.

You remember the sad fate of Phil Hogan, who faxed the budget to the Press the evening of Budget Day?

cactus flower wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Eamon Ryan is on the Week in Politics now and he's "not saying anything about what's in the Budget - wait until Tuesday"... Isn't Santa Claus dead? Why are we treated like this with the "wait for the surprises" shite? Would it mess with the bookies odds? This is no way to continue dealing with an electorate - the wait and see thing. Will people ever be treated like adults?

Budgets are always a State secret before they are announced since a leakage of statements about what is in the budget could have an unnecessarily disruptive impact on the economic affairs of the nation.

You remember the sad fate of Phil Hogan, who faxed the budget to the Press the evening of Budget Day?

Why is it a State Secret ! Would there be such a hullaballoo if we knew in advance? In fact, why don't we have a fair idea beforehand anyway?

You know, money should be boring but it's not - it's always a feckin cliffhanger. This country, this set up in more like a huge casino

Auditor #9 wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Not today Auditor #9.

I recommend this discussion of the Irish economy on rgemonitor
http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/559#121980#121980

One contributor says that it took Germany a ten year wages freeze to get out of a similar predicament of non competitivity.

Someone else says we've been in a 'catch-up' process which is normal and that our GDP is a positive factor. How long will it take for us to return to ... normal though and have we been wriggling out of too many European obligations and directives that would have been better for us had we adhered to them? Water quality is one and surely we should have been looking to Europe in terms of house price regulation all along too - I really think builders got away with lots of freebies during that boom and they needed to be taxed without adding the cost to the buyer. A tax on profit maybe or a profit-ceiling, higher building standards imposed... Someone said there that the house building industry was 14% of our production and that for every 10,000 houses not built, 1% growth disappeared from Ireland.

From today's SBP there's some news about the budget - an income levy being the headline budget news. This will be a 1% tax increase -
This new levy is expected to be a 1 per cent charge on income above a certain earnings threshold, with the possibility of a higher charge for top earners. so it will work as though income tax were increased but .. It would have a similar impact as an increase in income tax rates, but have the political advantage of being presented as a temporary measure to be removed when the exchequer finances improve. So much for the mad generous auction politics of the GE campaigns and the carrot and stick income tax cuts. Is an adjustable rate of tax a good measure though? I've a feeling it should be adjusted UP in the good times though, not the other way around.

from SBP article

We are getting a crash course in the consequences of profligacy, in a profligate system.