Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

cookiemonster wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

It's increasingly likely. A number of people within the Labour party were disquieted with the tack the party was taking the last time round and Labour voters were among the most emphatic No voters. A second vote could lead to the strain in the Labour camp becoming more acute and a No position adopted. They voted against the bank guarantee, they held up, "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters at their conference and Eamon Gilmore was emphatic in saying Lisbon was dead after the vote. It's possible that they will publicly go against the Treaty, but it is not likely that this will do them any favours. After campaigning for the Treaty last time, they could be seen as flip-floppers for going against it this time.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

It's increasingly likely. A number of people within the Labour party were disquieted with the tack the party was taking the last time round and Labour voters were among the most emphatic No voters. A second vote could lead to the strain in the Labour camp becoming more acute and a No position adopted. They voted against the bank guarantee, they held up, "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters at their conference and Eamon Gilmore was emphatic in saying Lisbon was dead after the vote. It's possible that they will publicly go against the Treaty, but it is not likely that this will do them any favours. After campaigning for the Treaty last time, they could be seen as flip-floppers for going against it this time.

Well all you're saying is true. The RedC Poll had more Labour people not vote than vote yes (30% to 25%) with 43% voting no. And from their "campaign" it was very obvious that their heart wasn't in it.

It's possible that while they didn't support the treaty they were unwilling to say so owing to the fact that they will have to form a government with FG and are likely to do so and be in power in the next 2 years and a no stance would have been damaging to them and FG in Europe.

But I'll be honest and say I don't think they will change their stance, and I think if it comes to it we're going to see another half-arsed campaign for Lisbon 2 from Labour.

OK, here goes

1) Govt. to threaten pay cuts for public servants. After much howling and beating of chests, public service accepts package of voluntary redundancies, hiring freezes and no pay rises until inflation rises once again (early 2010). An Bord Snip hacks a few quangos to pieces. No one really notices, apart from the journos.

2) Emergency Budget in May, followed by more calls for patriotic action. More protests. University fees re-introduced, early childcare levy abolished, PRSI ceiling goes. Tax revenues may begin to respond positively to levies introduced Jan 09.

3) House prices to seriously capitulate. This isn't strictly a 2009 only prediction, but house prices to stabilise at about 2.5x average joint income (this may take 5 years)

4) First half of year a deflationary bloodbath everywhere. ECB finally forced to floor the interest rates in Feb or March. When the German car manufacturers come back from mothballing their factories at the end of Feb, and discover that they still have excess inventory, the brown stuff will hit the fan and the Euro will be competing with Sterling for space on the floor. This will mildly improve our retail sector.

5) Following major redundances of an unprecedented nature in the UK, massive increases in UK govt. debt, followed by increasing issues with repaying that debt.... Gordon Brown approaches Eurozone with a view to joining. Eurozone less than thrilled owing to parlous state of British government accounts....true extent of PFI/war debt revealed, brown stuff hits fan, BoE tries quantitative monetary easing (printing money), confidence in Sterling really hits floor, interest on UK debt hits roof, IMF called in after UK banks need recapitalising... AGAIN. End result; Lizzie Windsor now joining other euro royals on the one euro coin, UK.

6) Agriculture and pharma sectors in Ireland do surprisingly well. Net loss of jobs however as retail, construction and banking suffer.

7) Middle Eastern bloody stalemate continues ad nauseam for next 40 years, not to reach peaceful settlement until oil has run out, America has gone bust and stopped bankrolling Israelis. Current issues stabilise fall in oil price for next month. Jan-Mar MAY see rises as disastrously cold winter sinks inventory contents world wide

Hot summer, bad hurricane season, disruptions to oil supply, gradual rise in oil prices over the autumn, diminution of deflation, but for wrong reasons. Living standards really tank for those on fixed incomes. Pensions armageddon

9) current EEKonomic "situation" results in overwhelming Lisbon yes vote, despite misguided attempts by Labour to oppose it. EU gratefully steps in to fund structural improvements to public transport and energy supply. Economy starts to lift slightly by end of year (back to 0% "growth" by end of year)

10) Barack Obama.... all goes well domestically, vast increase in science funding, alternative energy funding etc. Quantitative monetary easing works well for most 2009, fuelling resurgent inflation by end of year (along with rising oil). Makes valiant attempt to close down tax havens, but also takes a swipe at our FDI. General international crisis ensues as every other nation on Earth with a few US companies runs whingeing to White House. Barack forced to abandon protectionist stance and declare himself Saviour of all. Interest on US debt and dollar stabilise however as everyone realises that if the US economy is bad, everywhere else is worse. Despite the fact that this crisis was largely "made in America"

11 (sorry). Maggie Thatcher passes away, resulting in frenzied debate about legacies and future of capitalism. Cameron suffers in polls as Irish Lisbon Yes vote means he can't do much more to scupper European project, especially since Gordo just joined the euro in a hurry. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth from UK establishment.

cookiemonster wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

It's increasingly likely. A number of people within the Labour party were disquieted with the tack the party was taking the last time round and Labour voters were among the most emphatic No voters. A second vote could lead to the strain in the Labour camp becoming more acute and a No position adopted. They voted against the bank guarantee, they held up, "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters at their conference and Eamon Gilmore was emphatic in saying Lisbon was dead after the vote. It's possible that they will publicly go against the Treaty, but it is not likely that this will do them any favours. After campaigning for the Treaty last time, they could be seen as flip-floppers for going against it this time.

Well all you're saying is true. The RedC Poll had more Labour people not vote than vote yes (30% to 25%) with 43% voting no. And from their "campaign" it was very obvious that their heart wasn't in it.

It's possible that while they didn't support the treaty they were unwilling to say so owing to the fact that they will have to form a government with FG and are likely to do so and be in power in the next 2 years and a no stance would have been damaging to them and FG in Europe.

But I'll be honest and say I don't think they will change their stance, and I think if it comes to it we're going to see another half-arsed campaign for Lisbon 2 from Labour.

A sword of Damocles hanging over this one methinks. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

The posters and videos for the 'no' vote will be interesting, regardless as to the stance Labour decides upon.

I think and predict, that it'll come down to self preservation. Labour won't be in a position to lick FG and European holes if they're decimated by their formerly grassroots following.

Having Gilmore throw himself onto his sword, or indeed launching him onto it, won't be enough if Labour do not turn from the 'Dark Side.'

Personally, I'm not too bothered. I've long believed Labour to be ready for the back of the shovel anyway and am taking a somewhat perverse pleasure in watching their death spasms. Despite my fondness and respect for folks like Michael D.

Hermes wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

It's increasingly likely. A number of people within the Labour party were disquieted with the tack the party was taking the last time round and Labour voters were among the most emphatic No voters. A second vote could lead to the strain in the Labour camp becoming more acute and a No position adopted. They voted against the bank guarantee, they held up, "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters at their conference and Eamon Gilmore was emphatic in saying Lisbon was dead after the vote. It's possible that they will publicly go against the Treaty, but it is not likely that this will do them any favours. After campaigning for the Treaty last time, they could be seen as flip-floppers for going against it this time.

Well all you're saying is true. The RedC Poll had more Labour people not vote than vote yes (30% to 25%) with 43% voting no. And from their "campaign" it was very obvious that their heart wasn't in it.

It's possible that while they didn't support the treaty they were unwilling to say so owing to the fact that they will have to form a government with FG and are likely to do so and be in power in the next 2 years and a no stance would have been damaging to them and FG in Europe.

But I'll be honest and say I don't think they will change their stance, and I think if it comes to it we're going to see another half-arsed campaign for Lisbon 2 from Labour.

A sword of Damocles hanging over this one methinks. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

The posters and videos for the 'no' vote will be interesting, regardless as to the stance Labour decides upon.

I think and predict, that it'll come down to self preservation. Labour won't be in a position to lick FG and European holes if they're decimated by their formerly grassroots following.

The high number who abstained from voting shows either they were undecided or it wasn't a big issue for a lot of them. I believe it to be the latter of the two. An awful lot of labour people I spoke to were voting for the charter rather than the treaty.

Quote :

Having Gilmore throwing himself onto his sword, or indeed launching him onto it, won't be enough if Labour do not turn from the 'Dark Side.'

Personally, I'm not too bothered. I've long believed Labour to be ready for the back of the shovel anyway and am taking a somewhat perverse pleasure in watching their death spasms. Despite my fondness and respect for folks like Michael D.

I don't think Gilmore is going anywhere. They can't have another leader change so soon and who would take his place? They're running out of old people at the top and not paying enough attention to the youth in the party, which is a shame. The likes of Michael D. are few and far between and I don't see him being replaced by anybody any time soon, which too is a shame.

cookiemonster wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

Aye, government troubles and the prospect of actually getting into power will hinder the growth of populism in the Labour Party.

just out of interest, moderators, does anyone get a "Cassandra's Crystal Ball" award at the end of 2009 for having got the most right??

expat girl wrote:

just out of interest, moderators, does anyone get a "Cassandra's Crystal Ball" award at the end of 2009 for having got the most right??

Almost certainly! Also, perhaps an evening out with youngdan for the worst.

I expect to win Ibis so the worst will share in the festivities.

Where are your predictions. Grab some of Papal's next 25 if you can not
come up with any. Why should anyone have confidence in your opinions if you don't have any yourself.

I know Edo does not have the brainpower but you are a few grades above him

ibis wrote:

expat girl wrote:

just out of interest, moderators, does anyone get a "Cassandra's Crystal Ball" award at the end of 2009 for having got the most right??

Almost certainly! Also, perhaps an evening out with youngdan for the worst.

Can I have the second prize of I win? I'd say an evening with Youngdan would be great craic!

youngdan wrote:

I expect to win Ibis so the worst will share in the festivities.

Where are your predictions. Grab some of Papal's next 25 if you can not
come up with any. Why should anyone have confidence in your opinions if you don't have any yourself.

I know Edo does not have the brainpower but you are a few grades above him

Hes right there - Im definitely the intellectual dunce of MN by a country mile - takes me 3 hours to turn on the PC every morning

I figured out how to leave it on overnight. Works real good for me because I have a carbon footprint like a dinosaur.

How are those predictions coming Ibis

Edo wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I expect to win Ibis so the worst will share in the festivities.

Where are your predictions. Grab some of Papal's next 25 if you can not
come up with any. Why should anyone have confidence in your opinions if you don't have any yourself.

I know Edo does not have the brainpower but you are a few grades above him

Hes right there - Im definitely the intellectual dunce of MN by a country mile - takes me 3 hours to turn on the PC every morning

You need a second hamster for that generator.

cookiemonster wrote:

Edo wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I expect to win Ibis so the worst will share in the festivities.

Where are your predictions. Grab some of Papal's next 25 if you can not
come up with any. Why should anyone have confidence in your opinions if you don't have any yourself.

I know Edo does not have the brainpower but you are a few grades above him

Hes right there - Im definitely the intellectual dunce of MN by a country mile - takes me 3 hours to turn on the PC every morning

You need a second hamster for that generator.

Or more coke for the hamster. I swear, it makes their little legs a blur.

As to predictions...well, my mother does fortune-telling. Personally I don't do either prognostication or gambling. We'll see how the world goes as it goes.

1. Government not to fall.

2. A TD to die. The govt will put the bye-election off til 2010 because FG are sure to win.

3. Lisbon to narrowly pass.

4. Patricia McKenna will form The People's Movement into a party. They will oppose Lisbon and call for Ireland to leave the euro.
(My wife predicts PK will compete in yet another "celebrity" show! I concur)

5. Riots in London.

6. Libertas to do embarrassingly bad in the Euros. Greens won't pick up any seats here either.

7. Greens will pick up seats in the locals. The locals particularly good for FG again and terrible for FF again.

8. Some apartments in Dublin will be sold "2 for the price of 1". By 2010 they will be giving them away for free.

9. Greens across Europe unhappy as people like myself with perfectly good old cars forced (through new NCT style rules) to buy new(er) cars. All as a sop to the car industry.
Also an EU "scrappage scheme" like we had in Ireland.. but that's not a great prediction since it has already been reported in the papers as being discussed by the EU.

10. Obama to try to manage expectations. Does a solid job as people realise one man can't fix the world.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

Hermes wrote:

I'm going to break tradition and make an eleventh prediction.

11. The Labour Party will do an about face and promote a 'no' vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

I think you might be on to something there.

If they do it will be a disaster for them. I can't see FG being too happy about it either.

It's increasingly likely. A number of people within the Labour party were disquieted with the tack the party was taking the last time round and Labour voters were among the most emphatic No voters. A second vote could lead to the strain in the Labour camp becoming more acute and a No position adopted. They voted against the bank guarantee, they held up, "Gilmore for Taoiseach" posters at their conference and Eamon Gilmore was emphatic in saying Lisbon was dead after the vote. It's possible that they will publicly go against the Treaty, but it is not likely that this will do them any favours. After campaigning for the Treaty last time, they could be seen as flip-floppers for going against it this time.

Gilmore made a serious fuck up in how he handled the defeat of Lisbon I. The basic rule is 'don't give a hostage to fortune.' Gilmore made a mega one - he initially ruled out a second referendum and said he would not support one, only to realise that a second one was inevitable. Since then he has been inching away from his original comments, going from 'there should not be one' to 'there should not be one unless . . .' to 'x should be done before the second one' etc. He got himself at sixes and sevens, and now whatever he does he is going to find his comments in June used against him. It was politically stupid. Kenny and Cowen were clever enough to let the dust settle and let the bleeding obvious (that there had to be one) dawn on people, issuing holding statements and allowing the public to realise the situation.

It isn't the first time that Gilmore jumped first and then had an "oh shit! What have I done?" problem afterwards. He opposed the bank guarantee on a minor technicality - because the government would not accept a Labour amendment (one badly worded). Luckily for him the government is so incompetent at this stage that having made an initially right decision (one Irish bank was within hours of collapse without it and could have pulled down two major sectors of the Irish economy so they had to issue it or else the entire economy right now would be in ruins with most of the banks having collapsed and 70%+ of Irish businesses pulled under with the bank collapses) bungled the next step. Gilmore redefined his opposition to make it sound as though he had been wise to oppose the deal when in fact at the time he supported the scheme but had reacted in a huff to the rejection of a Labour technical amendment to it by voting against the whole scheme he had said he supported. If the government had not made such a cock-up, Gilmore's cock-up over his amendment would have made him and his party look amateurish.

It is one of the ironies of recent politics: Gilmore speaks well at Leaders Questions but his party are all over the place in terms of policy and winging it most of the time, making mistake after mistake. Kenny in contrast speaks less well but has been far more surefooted in handling all that has happened. That is why under Kenny Fine Gael support has increased by over 50% whereas Labour has spent the last decade going up and down around the same numbers, and why Kenny now has the youngest parliamentary party of any party while Labour has the oldest, with a host of seats destined to be lost next time when a lot of the older generation retire. In many ways Labour are like the SDLP, full of old men who have personal seats that when they retire are lost. And like the SDLP those old men are reaching an age where they can no longer remain on and have to retire. Labour's problem with the retirees is that come the next election even with an increase in percentage vote five or six seats may be lost due to retirements. Gilmore faces one hell of a problem come the next election.

Anyway, back to Lisbon - Labour will be campaigning for a yes vote. The leadership is totally behind it. Gilmore's soundbite reaction simply made their ability to get to that point. The problem highlights the problem with Gilmore - he ruthlessly hunts headlines, without realising until it is too late that today's headline may give him a headache tomorrow. Winning headlines may make him popular, but cost him dearly when he finds, as he did on Lisbon, that he got himself stuck on a hook he didn't have to get on in the first place.

eoinmn wrote:

1. Government not to fall.

I disagree for the following reasons:

- the government already has had close shaves (they came within 1 vote of losing in the Dáil even before they lost some TDs recently) and have bungled even Seanad votes, where they lost one and saw another debate collapse. That suggests that the government's management in both houses is chronically incompetent and means an accidental defeat is always on the cards.

- they are relying on a dwindling number of independents, one of whom is in his 80s and the other of whom risks being crucified by his voters if he votes for cutbacks that hit them. The Greens are beginning to stir after a year of slumber and start saying they are unhappy with policy. Many of the Green initiatives will be among the first to be cut in 2009 making the Greens' position precarious. FF TDs also are seriously alienated from Cowen who they believe is out of touch and hopeless. It isn't as if they are all united around a popular leader. Cowen's popularity is in freefall and will fall a lot more.

- the government is likely to have to pass a second budget, conceivably even two if the economy continues as it is. Every such vote will become more and more difficult.

- the cuts currently implemented are minor compared to what is coming down the line.

- the cabinet is bitterly divided between Cowenites and anti-Cowenites, with many at this stage detesting him, seeing him as incompetent, out of touch etc.

So you have cuts coming that are worse than you could possibly imagine, two independents who cannot be relied on - one due to age, another to save his electoral bacon, an increasingly unueasy junior partner, an increasingly unhappy Fianna Fáil, an inept taoiseach and a government at sixes and sevens about managing votes in the Dáil and Seanad. The most likely scenario, in my view, is a cock-up collapse: someone misses a vote, someone is sick, and oops the government falls. Rarely has a government faced a bigger crisis and rarely have we had a more inept incompetent government. If they cannot even manage Seanad votes (the easy bit) it says a lot. So I would be suprised given their incompetence and the problems they face if they don't either fall to pieces or accidentally lose a vote.

1. Government falls

2. Left doesn’t know what to so with itself.

3. Government re-elected

4. Left organises a chat about the situation

5. Riots in Dublin start

6. Riots in Mayo Stop. Left repeat Hitler’s mistake, second front a disaster.

7. Rioters demand 35 hour week & 6 weeks holiday or riots stop, Government caves in on condition rioters go back to doing nothing. Agreement reached.

8. Harney asked again about being nearer Boston or Berlin, she admits reading youngdan, decides Berlin is the better option.

9. All currencies rise & fall together, currency speculators get badly burnt, many hands get warm at fire.

10. It’s Christmas time again.

Ibis, you spend months predicting global warming but now your crystal balls are broken.

And of course Papal reverts to his norm. The Lisbon no voters are stupid but they will realise the bleeding obvious by next time. I have not seen many describe either Cowen or Kenny as clever but you describe BOTH as clever in one sentence.

You are surely one of a kind

youngdan wrote:

Ibis, you spend months predicting global warming but now your crystal balls are broken.

I'm not "predicting" it, youngdan. I'm merely drawing your attention to its scientifically verified existence. You should perhaps stop predicting the future so much and pay attention to what's actually happening already.

So far my predictions have been more accurate than your scientific verified existance, but we shall see as time goes by.

Here is a prediction for tonight. If you don't have anti-freeze in your car in Ireland your engine block will be bursted with the frost in the morning.

When the mechanic sees it he will burst his arse laughing and tell you it is because of global warming.

So check that jalopy.

youngdan wrote:

Ibis, you spend months predicting global warming but now your crystal balls are broken.

And of course Papal reverts to his norm. The Lisbon no voters are stupid but they will realise the bleeding obvious by next time. I have not seen many describe either Cowen or Kenny as clever but you describe BOTH as clever in one sentence.

You are surely one of a kind

Do you dispute the existence of global warming as an observable phenomenon, or merely dispute its cause? The former is undeniable, the latter open to debate, though I'm now personally convinced that the rate of change, rather than change itself, points to a probable human industrial significant influence, regardless of whether natural cycles are contributing too...

toxic avenger wrote:

youngdan wrote:

Ibis, you spend months predicting global warming but now your crystal balls are broken.

And of course Papal reverts to his norm. The Lisbon no voters are stupid but they will realise the bleeding obvious by next time. I have not seen many describe either Cowen or Kenny as clever but you describe BOTH as clever in one sentence.

You are surely one of a kind

Do you dispute the existence of global warming as an observable phenomenon, or merely dispute its cause? The former is undeniable, the latter open to debate, though I'm now personally convinced that the rate of change, rather than change itself, points to a probable human industrial significant influence, regardless of whether natural cycles are contributing too...

Youngdan is opposed to taxation, and fears a carbon tax will be imposed. All other thoughts flow from this. Objective reality does not get a look in beyond the fiscal aspect.