youngdan wrote:

I would agree with all that and expect it to be far beyond 50%.

National debt stood at €51 billion at the end of last year, 32.5% of GDP. GDP is therefore €157 billion.

I expect the economy to contract by 3.5% this year so that leaves us with GDP at the end of 2009 of €151 billion. This means that a 12% budget deficit would add 18 billion to national debt so it would stand at €69 billion which would be 47% of GDP or roughly 50%.

And I expect it to be far worse, if they can even get the borrowing done which in my mind is doubtfull

Shit. I'm dying to have a go, but predictions are futile.

Of course they are futile in a sense but is not 99% of conversation futile. Who knows you might have a future as a fortune teller. They clean up for telling whoppers that people want to believe. Like politicians but easier to get started

Here's a few for what they're worth (sfa probably)

- Early budget in March, more mergers, abolotions, 10% pay cut for public sector above P.O level, reintroduction of third level fees based on student loan model.
- FF to lose about 15% of their seats at the local elections. FG and Lab will do well but the big surprise will be the very strong performance on SF. In a sign of things to come, Greens will bomb due to lack of transfers.
- In the Euros Gay Mitchell will top the poll with MLM polling well, she will take DeRossa seat. Eoin Ryan will just about hang on.
- In North West Doherty will take Harkin's seat. East will probably stay the same (labour will likely do very badly here). In South Sinnott will be saved by the eurosceptic vote. Otherwise she'd be gone.
- Lisbon Treaty will pass (somewhere between 51 and 53%) with major concessions to the fishing industry from the outset, farmers will also rally the troops this time out. Working class Dublin will still vote no in large numbers.
- McCreevy to resign as Commissioner - Dempsey to replace.
- Gogargy and Mary White will jump ship - possibly causing an election.
- Four bi-elections in 2004
- I will finally give up smoking
- Whatever happens, we'll all be here next year.

I would love to offer input on the economic situations (which is obviously the issue that will govern all else) but as Enda might say, I am neither qualified nor able.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Shit. I'm dying to have a go, but predictions are futile.

Go on EVM - give it your best shot.

Joe Brand was asked to make a New Year's resolution and a prediction. Her resolution was to take more exercise, and her prediction was that she wouldn't.

Quote :

905 said In Israel, Livni will narrowly win the forthcoming elections, but only with a massive show of force against the Gaza strip. That terrible conflict will continue for some time yet, no matter who wins the election. There won't be a major land invasion however, not after Lebannon.

905 was good enough to draw attention to the fact that one of his 10 predictions has bitten the dust already. Anyone else in trouble yet?

Sadly, my prediction of a TD dying came true.


There could be another yet.

coc wrote:

1) Anglo Irish Bank will be wound up as an independent entity
3) FG will overtake FF in local election seats

Agreed.

coc wrote:

2) Civil Service will accept 10% pay cuts on average

They will a take a cut, but less than 10%.

coc wrote:

4) Lisbon II will be defeated
5) Mary Lou will hold her Euro seat
6) Kathy Sinnott will hold her Euro seat
7) Greens will walk
8 ) FG Lab SF government

Disagree.

coc wrote:

10) House prices will drop to 30% below peak (end '06) prices

Ah.... that's happened already.
I could show you houses in East Galway that have fallen from 280,000 to 180,000. Or 365,000 to 240,000.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Shit. I'm dying to have a go, but predictions are futile.

Jo Brand: My 2009 resolutions and predictions;
My resolution is to excercise more.
My prediction; I won't.

1. Organic Farming will decline and ill informed journalists people calling for an all organic island will not notice. I am in favour of organic food myself as it is not as cancerous but it will decline.

2. The elites in society will lose their patience with anyone who they see as being a block to economic recovery. The Government will be forced to turn on the Regulator and the remaining Bank Chiefs and a few high fliers will be sent to the wall to appease the masses. Criminal investigations will not be launched. Harney may be sacrificed too. Tom Kitt might make a surprise ascent to the Cabinet as Cowen tries to shore up some votes in the party. O'Dea to Health, Cullen to Defence and Kitt to Arts, Sport and Tourism. Cowen to offer Mary Hannafin the Commissioner's job.

3. We will continue to lag behind the rest of the world in terms of financial sector reform. This is because of a lack of expertise and the heavy political price of forcing huge lay-offs in BoI/AIB. We will pay a heavy price for this in the long term. The only hope is increased powers to the ECB and a meeting of fearful minds in the partnership model. There will be huge stealth cuts but not enough. Projects will be delayed unofficially with expenditure being shifted to the year after.

4. Women to become spottier, pastier and a little plumper. Men to start smelling less fresh and reduce their posing and preening. Haircuts to become subject to greater temporal spacing. Randiness indices to plummet as men can only talk about matters economic and so fail to turn women on. Musicians, writers and journalists to start getting more action.

5. Obama to take a hard line in foreign affairs with other major powers but international relations to improve greatly as he puts bright minds to work to avoid a recreation of the 1940s.

6. Fine Gael to run out of ideas. Labour to do well in the locals and in Europe. FF to be pulped in the Locals and European Parliament elections. FF to cave into every Green demand in cabinet. Greens to stick with Government because the dire global warming, energy and food situations.

7. Small town credit junkies to be put through financial, emotional and family hell. Bank officials to retaliate against public spitting on them by getting bloody with spendthrift loan defaulters. Church attendance to increase.

8. A new political party may be spawned form an internal split in FF. Unlikely but possible. The end of the political road is in sight for most FF backbenchers. They might call for an end to the ridiculous system whereby TDs who were formerly civil servants or teachers can get full pensions for jobs they haven't worked in for years.

9. I don't know what will happen with Lisbon. I think it will be passed but it is possible it won't be passed. If it isn't then I expect the rest of the EU will find a way to press ahead without us. The huge economic pressure on Europe will make this politically acceptable.

10. People to forget who Declan Ganley is. Machine Nation posters to form the nucleus of a post-democratic technocratic elite who will eventually take control of the continent. Tayto to be 12p again come summer time. TV3 to diversify into pornography combined with beer advertising. Newstalk to get George Hook, Sean Moncrieff, Eoin McDevitt and Ken Early to host all shows except Talking History. All the phone companies to outsource network maintenance to one of them, all the papers to be printed at the Indo printing press, Denis O'Brien and the O'Reillys to start hanging out together. Speculative litigation to clog the courts. Legal reform to be carried out in relation to bankruptcy and landlord and tenant law with a bevy of new draftsmen being recruited form the unemployed masses of solicitors. Proposals to make alternative dispute resolution and particularly mediation mandatory in virtually all cases will increase. Martina Navratilova to regret going on I'm a Celebrity.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

10. People to forget who Declan Ganley is. Machine Nation posters to form the nucleus of a post-democratic technocratic elite who will eventually take control of the continent. Tayto to be 12p again come summer time. TV3 to diversify into pornography combined with beer advertising. Newstalk to get George Hook, Sean Moncrieff, Eoin McDevitt and Ken Early to host all shows except Talking History. All the phone companies to outsource network maintenance to one of them, all the papers to be printed at the Indo printing press, Denis O'Brien and the O'Reillys to start hanging out together. Speculative litigation to clog the courts. Legal reform to be carried out in relation to bankruptcy and landlord and tenant law with a bevy of new draftsmen being recruited form the unemployed masses of solicitors. Proposals to make alternative dispute resolution and particularly mediation mandatory in virtually all cases will increase. Martina Navratilova to regret going on I'm a Celebrity.

I’m with you here, every word feasible.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

4. Women to become spottier, pastier and a little plumper. Men to start smelling less fresh and reduce their posing and preening. Haircuts to become subject to greater temporal spacing. Randiness indices to plummet as men can only talk about matters economic and so fail to turn women on. Musicians, writers and journalists to start getting more action..

But this, this is just laughable.

eoinmn wrote:

coc wrote:

10) House prices will drop to 30% below peak (end '06) prices

Ah.... that's happened already.
I could show you houses in East Galway that have fallen from 280,000 to 180,000. Or 365,000 to 240,000.

Yay me! 5 days in and one prediction over the line already (well for Dublin anyway).
At this rate of progress I should have all 10 by the end of February.

So, keeping score, that's eoinmn and coc, +1 each, 905 = -1 ?

cactus flower wrote:

So, keeping score, that's eoinmn and coc, +1 each, 905 = -1 ?

I have been right about one also.

Papal Knight wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

So, keeping score, that's eoinmn and coc, +1 each, 905 = -1 ?

I have been right about one also.

Which one ?

cactus flower wrote:

Papal Knight wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

So, keeping score, that's eoinmn and coc, +1 each, 905 = -1 ?

I have been right about one also.

Which one ?

answered privately.

1. A snap General Election will be called - mid September I think. Reasons being and absolute battering in Local Elections and protests from within.

2. The summer will be the driest + warmest since 1994 or something, and 'Heatwave' will become buzzword for the summer.

3. Machine Nation will WIN the Golden Spider next year. Membership will exceed 1000.

4. Anglo Irish will cease to trade as a regular bank. It will stop taking deposits, it's only real deposit being inter bank loans guaranteed by the Government. Its assets/loans will be consolidated into other banks on a gradual basis so as not to frighten the public. (I don't care if that sounds nuts)

5. The ISEQ will fall to 1200 and finish the year back up slightly at 1800.

6. My paye rate will be increased to 44%.

7. I'll manage to get the 1959 Philips radio working that I've been pissing around with for 5 years.

8. The British throne will change hands

9. I'll bring my car for an NCT which is already a year overdue.

J. I'll still have those pesky BOI shares I bought last month at 1.18, even though Youngdan told me not too.

10. Pascal O' Donohue (FG) will win the Gregory by election.

I know that looks like one extra, but I use base 11 counting.

Edit : enumeration modified to clear up confusion.

I thought another one of my predictions had come true when I saw this headline.
"Buy one, get one free: developer's house offer"
http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2009/jan/11/buy-one-get-one-free-developers-house-offer/

The headline is misleading though. If you buy a house you are entered in a draw for a free house.

I'm claiming a result - although there's more to come on this one:

Quote :

Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

The Euro dropped yesterday as a result of Brian Cowen's statement in Japan that the IMF was liable to find its way to Ireland.

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The euro stabilised from early losses on Wednesday after Ireland denied reports that its prime minister had said he may ask the International Monetary Fund for help if the economic downturn worsens.

But Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, speaking in an interview with Irish broadcaster RTE, endorsed the view of the country's unions that public finances are unsustainable [ID:nDUB000777]. The Irish Embassy in Tokyo, where Cowen is visiting, denied earlier reports that he said he may call in the IMF if the economic situation deteriorates [ID:nTKU003243].

The euro rose to around $1.3240 after the comments, pulling back from around $1.3200 hit earlier in the day.
Against sterling, the euro rose to a session high of 91.25 pence, having fallen to 90.15 pence in early trade.
Analysts said euro gains were limited due to lingering worries about the Irish economy.
"Even with the denial, I think the markets are likely to conclude that there's no smoke without fire," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency sresearch at BTM UFJ in London.
"It's a well known fact that of any country within the euro zone that Ireland has the most fragile banking sector because of the degree of leverage in the property market."

(Reporting by Veronica Brown and Naomi Tajitsu)

Forgot interest rates but from the Indo this morning and in with the ballbreaking state that money-supply is in I'd generally believe that money will cost nothing soon and will remain so for a year or more. indo

It's only the end of the second week in January and although there's already a stretch in the mornings and evenings, it's still not too late to make a prediction or two !

cactus flower wrote:

I'm claiming a result - although there's more to come on this one:

Quote :

Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

The Euro dropped yesterday as a result of Brian Cowen's statement in Japan that the IMF was liable to find its way to Ireland.

We'll give you that.

I would also say now that Coc was correct about Anglo Irish being wound up as an independent entity.

2/10 now and still 350 days to go!

I think we can give evm one for anglo too.

Its worrying how fast our predictions are coming true.
At this rate, we'll have to do this exercise again in August.

eoinmn wrote:

Its worrying how fast our predictions are coming true.
At this rate, we'll have to do this exercise again in August.

I predict it will be even sooner.