Who do people think should be the next leader of each of the political parties? Save for Labour I think there could be a big shakeup of the leaders of the various Parliamentary Parties over the coming years.

Cowen is the obvious person to be first out the door. I would suggest that Micheál Martin would be the best leader of Fianna Fáil from the current crop of TDs. In fact I really think he would have been a better leader than Cowen from the start. People talk alot about Lenihan but I think Martin is where it is at. Another interesting potential is Hanafin, I can only presume that she was overlooked for Tánaiste on the basis that she provided a threat to Cowen's leadership. This is not the case with Coughlan who has been out of her depth since the start.

Fine Gael, I am going to be controversial and overlook the obvious candidates for leader. I suggest that the next leader should either be Simon Coveney or Olwyn Enright. Coveney whilst not necessarily a huge hitter does possess the requisite skill and ability to be a party leader. He is solid and intelligent, he demonstrated an ability to lead through his human rights involvement as an MEP. Enright, here is an interesting one, she good looking, she is young, she is intelligent, she is capable and she is a woman. What better candidate could Fine Gael put forward to represent change and a new beginning for Ireland? She may not be the most obvious candidate, but I think she is a good one.

Green Party, I think Eamon Ryan will be the next leader, without doubt.

Sinn Féin, they need to completely remodel themselves if they are to stand a chance at making real electoral gains. I suppose Pearse Doherty is their young knight in shining armour. Personally I think Mary Lou is going to lose her MEP seat and she is not going to gain election to the Dáil even at the next election. Sinn Féin desperately need to find their position in Irish politics, this was all too obvious during their last General Election campaign when Gerry Adams showed himself to be hideously out of touch. They will need to move beyond their motley crew, Ferris, Morgan and the like, if they stand a chance. That said, could they and Fine Gael form a Government after the next General Election? It is not beyond the realms of possibility.

I'll have to disagree with most of that johnfás.

On the FF front, there are 2 credible successors to Cowen: Ahern or Martin. There are 2 further outside chances. Dempsey or Lenihan. Hanafin hasn't a hope, being neither popular within the party nor capable. (Witness her comments on private pensions collapsing which in one fell swoop drove a horse and four though ten years or more of government PRSA/pensions propaganda.

On FG, by being controversial, I think you are by definition wrong. You are also overlooking the fact that the vacancy is not going to arise over the next 2 or 3 years at the earliest. FG seem to have learned from their mistakes of the past, and until Enda suffers a setback, there will be no stomach for a heave. I see no setback likely for FG this side of the next General election.

I would agree with you on the Greens if I thought either Gormley or Ryan had a snowballs chance in hell of holding their seats at the next election. I suspect the only Green in the next Dáil will be clever Trevor, so he may find himself leader again.

SF have a huge problem, I'd agree. Their strength is in the North, so that is where any new leader is likely to emerge from, but as you pointed out, that now seems a huge liability down South. Mary Lou Mc D. might play well down here, but does she have any sort of profile in the heartlands? Pearse D. might be a reasonable compromise candidate, but is he a big enough fish to carry a party nationally? Not until he gets himself elected to something more credible than the Seanad, in my opinion. The PDs showed us all how being led from outside the Dáil works. (By that logic Mary Lou won't do either). Personally, I'd rate Arthur Morgan highly, but would your average voter recognise him in a line-up? ahem.

You left out Gilmore, presumably because you regard him as secure. I agree.

Agree more with coc here. Ahern or Lenihan in FF (although Lenihan is in a job where he is uncomfortable, preferring, as he would, to be in Ahern's) hanafin useless and Coughlan promoted vastly beyond her extremely limited ability. The rest are cowboys, jokers or both.

Enda has done nothing wrong from a party political point of view and has a few decent people on his front bench. All he has to do is to keep his boat on course and steady. Bruton easily the most able of his people and consequently the man he has to fear most but no obvious moves to topple Enda are detectable.

Labour? Strange one this. The government go from one calamity to another, yet Labour cannot make any opinion poll inroads anywhere. Gilmore has to address this.

Greens. I agree, coc. Clever Trevor to be the last man standing

SF. North/South thing a major problem for them. That alone robs them of votes but in the economic apocalypse to come in 2009, a party of protest could scoop up a lot of disaffected people from beyond the traditional vote base. Could be an opportunity for them if managed with a bit of electoral intelligence.

The elections next year will be interesting but I wont be reading too much into the results for a guide to the next GE.

I'm not saying who will be the next leader, I am saying who I think should be the next party leader. As in who would be the best pick for the various parties. My reference to Hanafin was not that she will be the next party leader, merely that Cowen obviously fears her. That or he just didn't like that she doesn't hang around the Dáil bar enough.

Richard Bruton is a fantastic person and he would be excellent as Minister for Finance or even Taoiseach. My point is that if (which is the whole premise of this thread if you read the opening sentence of the opening thread) Enda were to leave as leader I think that Enright would be an excellent replacement for the reasons outlined above. She would have a broad appeal particularly attractive to sections of society which do not vote for Fine Gael. She could potentially reframe the whole debate in Irish politics.

johnfás wrote:

... My reference to Hanafin was not that she will be the next party leader, merely that Cowen obviously fears her. That or he just didn't like that she doesn't hang around the Dáil bar enough.

I'm not sure fear is the right word here. Despise may be more appropriate. The body language at the Áras last summer suggested the feeling was mutual. The ascent of Andrews suggests a leisurely shafting of Hanafin is in progress.

coc wrote:

johnfás wrote:

... My reference to Hanafin was not that she will be the next party leader, merely that Cowen obviously fears her. That or he just didn't like that she doesn't hang around the Dáil bar enough.

I'm not sure fear is the right word here. Despise may be more appropriate. The body language at the Áras last summer suggested the feeling was mutual. The ascent of Andrews suggests a leisurely shafting of Hanafin is in progress.

I agree Hanafin would be terrible. She has no sense of the potential impact of what she says and has riled so many groups in her time in both education and social affairs, reckon there'd be uproar within months if she was made party leader. A liability.

Agree Michael Martin is the best of the FF bunch though he has been pretty knocked about by his own side - Ahern especially disliked him I think - feared his ability.

How about Micahel Creed for FG? He's a very good politician with real potential to do a good job for FG. But Bruton is miles ahead of Kenny meanwhile. Dont understand FG's support for Kenny.

Joan Burton would be good for Labour.

Mary Lou needs a bit more road behind her to lead SF?

Aragon wrote:

Mary Lou needs a bit more road behind her to lead SF?

Mary Lou has stood for Dáil election twice, both times unsuccessfully. She is going to have to convince me that she has a better mandate than she has before I could consider her as leadership quality.

Interesting thread. There are my thoughts:

Fianna Fail

Probably the first time in the history of the party that there is no obvious successor. Lenihan will be probably have been fatally wounded (in terms of leadership ambition) after his tenure in Finance. If the government manage to get Lisbon Round 2 through, then Martin will probably be the next leader. He'll need some support from Dublin and I imagine Mary Hanafin will be the one to provide it. Dermot Ahern is the dark horse but he is apparently not very popular with the grassroots.

Fine Gael

Again, no obvious successor. If there is a leadership vacancy in the current Dail then it will probably go to Brian Hayes. He's been very effective in Education and he has plenty of internal support. Coveney is excellent on policy but is not a great communicator. He's very aloof and doesn't have the cutting edge. As for Enright, not a hope. She's OK overall but was very ineffective in education. I'd put her firmly in the lightweight category. It's a shame that Fine Gael's most effective performers, Francis Fitzgerald and Eugene Regan, are both languishing in the Seanad. Both have what it takes in my opinion.

Green Party

I agree that Eamon Ryan will probably be the next leader. I'm not sure how important that will be as I have very little confidence that they'll return more than 1/2 seats next time out.

Sinn Fein

Pearse Doherty is an excellent candidate and will likely take a seat next time out. He's sharp, intelligent and largely devoid of SF baggage. I reckon he's the obvious choice.

On this issue, of who should be the leader of the various political parties, I am going to make the following picks;

Fianna Fáil

Charlie McCreevy would be an excellent leader for Fianna Fáil. Unfairly shafted in 2004, he had a drive, vision and ambition as Minister for Finance which has not been replicated since. He has held his own in the European Commission and he shown commitment to the general principles of economic and political liberalism which are essential to the long-term health and wealth of the nation.

Of the current parliamentary party, Mícheál Martin would be the best choice of them all. Dermot Ahern is a natural minister and his current brief suits him, Brian Lenihan is increasingly lost as the economic calamity overshadows his tenure, Mary Hanifin is nearly but fully imaginable as leader and others like Noel Dempsey still haven't come to their time. Mícheál Martin is the only government Minister who actually seemed to understand the Lisbon Treaty and present a cogent case for the Treaty to the public. He left Enda Kenny in the dust on the QandA Lisbon Special and gave it to the representatives of the No side. Plus, Dublin only seem to win All-Irelands when a culchie is Taoiseach so this maximises our medium-term chances in this regard!

Fine Gael

The person I believe to be the best leader for Fine Gael would be Ivan Yates. He has an easy media manner, is an excellent communicator, has governmental experience superior to virtually everyone in the 51-member Oireachtas party and has plenty of real-world executive and managerial expertise through his betting shops. Ivan Yates would be an excellent choice to take up the baton from Enda Kenny and take the job of Taoiseach.

In the parliamentary party, Richard Bruton would be great. He is a good media operator, has a clear sense of what he is talking about, has mastered his portfolio and proven himself as a worthy operator. He would be a great leader of Fine Gael and has what it takes to bring Fine Gael all the way to Government Buildings.

Labour

I would like to see Ruairí Quinn reassume the job of leader as he did a good job of it, was a brilliant Minister for Finance, has a proven track record and stands far above the other less-than-impressive Labourites.

Green Party

Eamon Ryan is great, inspirational and dreamy. Ryan hands down.

Sinn Féin

Meh, is cuma liom.

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Fianna Fail - tonys
Fine Gael - Edo
Labour - Evotingmachine 0197
Green Party - eoinmn
Sinn Fein - Vacant pending suitable applicant
Libertas - Cookiemonster

cactus flower wrote:

Fianna Fail - tonys
Fine Gael - Edo
Labour - Evotingmachine 0197
Green Party - eoinmn
Sinn Fein - Vacant pending suitable applicant
Libertas - Cookiemonster

I'll join Sinn Féin to fill that position cactus!

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Well I wouldn't call him the best Minister for Finance we ever had, he certainly wasn't the worst. Brian Cowen, Brian Lenihan and Charles Haughey amongst others would be in that bracket. He wasn't a coward for not joining the PDs, he was simply impatient with Des O'Malley's prevarication and made a decision to leave the PDs formation then and by the time the PDs were created, it just wasn't the right time for him to enter them. Supporting the bloodstock industry is a great thing an Irish Finance Minister can do. It promotes balanced regional development as it is mainly concentrated in rural areas, promotes a very socially-mixed sport of horse-racing and has provided Ireland with real global leadership in this field. We have benefitted socially, culturally and economically from the assiduous development of a bloodstock industry in Ireland.

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Well I wouldn't call him the best Minister for Finance we ever had, he certainly wasn't the worst. Brian Cowen, Brian Lenihan and Charles Haughey amongst others would be in that bracket. He wasn't a coward for not joining the PDs, he was simply impatient with Des O'Malley's prevarication and made a decision to leave the PDs formation then and by the time the PDs were created, it just wasn't the right time for him to enter them. Supporting the bloodstock industry is a great thing an Irish Finance Minister can do. It promotes balanced regional development as it is mainly concentrated in rural areas, promotes a very socially-mixed sport of horse-racing and has provided Ireland with real global leadership in this field. We have benefitted socially, culturally and economically from the assiduous development of a bloodstock industry in Ireland.

Who are the 'we' you're talking about Ard? It's a bit of a stretch to pretend that the benefit has been to anything other than a very small minority. Relative to investment, not value for money imo.

Aragon wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Indeed. Will all pork barrel spending be recalled now on the grounds of public safety? One can only hope.

Aragon wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Well I wouldn't call him the best Minister for Finance we ever had, he certainly wasn't the worst. Brian Cowen, Brian Lenihan and Charles Haughey amongst others would be in that bracket. He wasn't a coward for not joining the PDs, he was simply impatient with Des O'Malley's prevarication and made a decision to leave the PDs formation then and by the time the PDs were created, it just wasn't the right time for him to enter them. Supporting the bloodstock industry is a great thing an Irish Finance Minister can do. It promotes balanced regional development as it is mainly concentrated in rural areas, promotes a very socially-mixed sport of horse-racing and has provided Ireland with real global leadership in this field. We have benefitted socially, culturally and economically from the assiduous development of a bloodstock industry in Ireland.

Who are the 'we' you're talking about Ard? It's a bit of a stretch to pretend that the benefit has been to anything other than a very small minority. Relative to investment, not value for money imo.

Thousands of people are employed either directly or indirectly by the bloodstock industry. From animal vets to people in the hospitality industry to the auctioneers in Goffs and Tattersalls Ireland and beyond, a major contribution is made to our national accounts by this industry.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Aragon wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective, Ard. I must however, disagree with your assessment of McCreevy. One of the worst Ministers for Finance we ever had, his political cowardice in not joining the PDs was eclipsed by the chronic visionless neo-liberalist crap he polluted his budgets with year after year. His troughsnouting behaviour with useless costly backyard public cash diversions and his massive subsidising of the equine sperm industry was pork barrelism at its worst. Rightly booted out in 2004, it was 7 years too late.

Otherwise, I agree with a lot of what you said.

Well I wouldn't call him the best Minister for Finance we ever had, he certainly wasn't the worst. Brian Cowen, Brian Lenihan and Charles Haughey amongst others would be in that bracket. He wasn't a coward for not joining the PDs, he was simply impatient with Des O'Malley's prevarication and made a decision to leave the PDs formation then and by the time the PDs were created, it just wasn't the right time for him to enter them. Supporting the bloodstock industry is a great thing an Irish Finance Minister can do. It promotes balanced regional development as it is mainly concentrated in rural areas, promotes a very socially-mixed sport of horse-racing and has provided Ireland with real global leadership in this field. We have benefitted socially, culturally and economically from the assiduous development of a bloodstock industry in Ireland.

Who are the 'we' you're talking about Ard? It's a bit of a stretch to pretend that the benefit has been to anything other than a very small minority. Relative to investment, not value for money imo.

Thousands of people are employed either directly or indirectly by the bloodstock industry. From animal vets to people in the hospitality industry to the auctioneers in Goffs and Tattersalls Ireland and beyond, a major contribution is made to our national accounts by this industry.

The profits from McCreevy's gifts to horseracing went straight into the hands of a very small group of wealthy people. Most of your 'thousands' were unaffected. Meanwhile he would not agree to support a largely EU funded scheme for dedicated autism treatment units which required some input from the Irish government. His preference for horses rather than people was evident:

Quote :

In an amazingly honest interview, Minister of Finance Charlie McCreevy told the Racing Post on March 2nd how concerned he is about the happiness of his horse racing buddies. According to McCreevy "the next logical step was to put racing's finances on a permanent footing. If that is not done, racing will be at the whim of the government of the day and, when pressure comes for expenditure on things like health and education, racing will go down the political priority list". Perish the thought that healing the sick or educating our children should be thought more important than subsidising the playtime of his millionaire horsey pals like John Magnier and Denis Desmond.

http://struggle.ws/ws/2000/capitalism60.html

McCreevy carries more than his fair share of the responsibility for our current economic woes as a reckless exponent of free marketeering - a point he has had to concede indirectly:

http://news.smh.com.au/business/eu-moves-toward-new-hedge-fund-rules-20081202-6p1n.html

The most important fact may well be missing from people's analyses. Seats change. People lose them. People win them. So to predict the next leader you have to predict when the change occurs, and whether it occurs in the current Dáil or a future one.

Fianna Fáil

If the next leader is chosen in this Dáil, the choice is likely to be between Micheal Martin and Dermot Ahern. It would have been Lenihan had Cowen left him in Justice. But now he is so linked to Cowen that if Cowen falls will be too damaged by association to be a candidate.

If the new leader is chosen in the next Dáil then predicting the next leader will depend on who is still in the Dáil. On current poll numbers many possible candidates, for example, Dermot Ahern, may well have lost his seat. On current poll numbers half the ministers will lose their seats.

As to the ability of either Ahern or Martin, neither are first rate. Ahern is unpopular, arrogant and has the personal skills of Cowen (in a better body!). Martin is lightweight, has a poor record in his jobs in government and would be a weak figure.

Many of the next generation of talent FF TDs are likely unless things change to lose their seats.

So Fianna Fáil have a real problem on their hands.

Fine Gael

The reverse is true with Fine Gael. If Kenny was to lose the leadership in this Dáil, which is exceptionally unlikely, Richard Bruton would be a shoo-in.

If a change occurs in the next Dáil, it is difficult to predict who would be the new leader. Their is considerable talent within Fine Gael, and many people not widely known now to the public would as ministers be big hits. Their are a heck of a lot of new TDs now who are exceptionally talented and will become big hitters in the future.

Labour

Labour has a major problem. Few of its current front benchers are first rate. Almost all who are have already been leader (Rabbitte, Quinn) or been repeatedly defeated for the job (Howlin). So Labour will have a problem if having to find a new leader in this Dáil. In addition many people (for example Michael D) will be retiring or are in poor health. Right now it is hard to find a single Labour spokesperson with the exception of the leader, Quinn, Rabbitte and Howlin who has been anything other than weak at best, embarrassing at worst.

As for the next Dáil, again it depends on who can win seats, and the problem there is organisational. Labour has weak organisation and unlike Fine Gael under Kenny did not begin a massive rebuilding of the organisation when it needed to. So people like Dominic Hannigan who should have won a seat last time didn't.

Greens

The Greens face a real problem if a change of leader occurs in the next Dáil. Gormley has a seat in a very dodgy constituency where there is no such thing as a safe seat (if FG could lose a seat there in 2002, anyone can). The obvious replacement would be Eamon Ryan but he is in the worst constituency of all - a place where you can go from electoral hero to demon in the blink of an eye, as Eithne FitzGerald found out. If things go bad, if Fine Gael get stronger there, if Labour gets stronger there, then both government parties could lose seats. The Greens may be doing well in the polls but they are at a support level where they cannot win seats on their own - they need transfers and won't get them from FG and Labour while FF will be too concerned with saving its seats to have votes to spare. Ryan's seat is dodgy. Gormley's is dodgy, White's is gone. Boyle with the boundary change is gone for good. Gogarty is regarded frankly as a nutjob and is unlikely to hold on. Only Sargent may hold on, so unless they win new seats (and that is unlikely given the transfer squeeze) Trevor may end up leader again by default.

Sinn Fein

Mary Lou is being groomed by the party but she faces a basic problem - electability. She failed to win in Dublin Central, delivering what considering how much of a cert she was seen was a poor performance. With One MEP less in Dublin she will be under severe pressure. Pearse may win a seat, but that too is not a certainty. Few of their current crop of TDs have shone and many have been poor. So finding a leader in the Dáil might be difficult.

Overall

In quite a turn-up for the books considering the 2002 meltdown, the only party with real potential for future leaders is Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil may see its more talented people lose seats. Labour is an aging party with few first raters, while the Greens face the danger of losing most of their potential candidates and SF has talented people outside the Dáil but few of talent in it.

Papal

what is your opinion on Lenihan for FF or even Coughlan sticking her head out ?

I think Richard Bruton is a fine figures man but a bit on the technical side do you think ? He's an under-the-bonnet man for me (car doesn't work with it remember) . Varadkar and Hayes are fairly new for FG but I think Leo V. has something strong ahead of him if his seat is safe - is it?

Who would threaten Gormley in DSC (?) ?

Cactus. To Hell with A-T, I want to be leader of a party too and will try for the vacant SF position. I know nothing about them. My only priorities are that they must want to get out of the EU and that they must not be afraid of guns.

Have I any chance.

youngdan wrote:

Cactus. To Hell with A-T, I want to be leader of a party too and will try for the vacant SF position. I know nothing about them. My only priorities are that they must want to get out of the EU and that they must not be afraid of guns.

Have I any chance.

No you don't. You are unfit for leadership. I shall lead Sinn Féin to a glorious 21st century. A renaissance shall ensue under my leadership. I shall prove worthy.

youngdan wrote:

Cactus. To Hell with A-T, I want to be leader of a party too and will try for the vacant SF position. I know nothing about them. My only priorities are that they must want to get out of the EU and that they must not be afraid of guns.

Have I any chance.

None.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Papal

what is your opinion on Lenihan for FF or even Coughlan sticking her head out ?

Coughlan's reputation is in tatters. She would be lucky to have a ministerial career in the future after the debacle of her performance as tanaiste. FFers think her one of the dumbest ministers in a poor government. They already has their knives out for her.

Lenihan would have been a brilliant leader. But he has one problem: being Finance Minister right now. He will take the blame for all the mistakes. Irish politics is littered with the remnants of 'could have been a contender' figures damaged or destroyed in a recession. Only one recession Finance Minister, John Bruton, ever became taoiseach, and as well as Bruton, only 1 other became leader, Dukes (for a short time). Even if you are a success (McSharry, McCreevy) people think you too much of a hard man for the job. People like Richie Ryan etc had their chances blown by having that job in recessions. Lenihan and Coughlan are now too linked to Cowen. If he fails, they do by extension. Lenihan may well be the best man who never became leader. Indeed Cowen may well have put him in there to ensure Lenihan did not become leader of the 'anybody but Cowen' faction.

Quote :

I think Richard Bruton is a fine figures man but a bit on the technical side do you think ? He's an under-the-bonnet man for me (car doesn't work with it remember) . Varadkar and Hayes are fairly new for FG but I think Leo V. has something strong ahead of him if his seat is safe - is it?

Hayes is a possible leader, Leo not. Leo is too right wing. 'Hard men' make bad leaders (eg, Reynolds, Noonan, McDowell).

Quote :

Who would threaten Gormley in DSC (?) ?

Most likely FG. FG before the PDs had either had 2 seats or been close to 2 seats for a long time there. The PDs there mainly took FG support. Add most of the PD support to the FG support and add in the poll increases and FG is on target for 2, leaving FF, Labour and the Greens for the final two. I'd give the third to Labour and see the last between FF and the Greens, based on current data.

Aragon wrote:

coc wrote:

johnfás wrote:

... My reference to Hanafin was not that she will be the next party leader, merely that Cowen obviously fears her. That or he just didn't like that she doesn't hang around the Dáil bar enough.

I'm not sure fear is the right word here. Despise may be more appropriate. The body language at the Áras last summer suggested the feeling was mutual. The ascent of Andrews suggests a leisurely shafting of Hanafin is in progress.

I agree Hanafin would be terrible. She has no sense of the potential impact of what she says and has riled so many groups in her time in both education and social affairs, reckon there'd be uproar within months if she was made party leader. A liability.

Agree Michael Martin is the best of the FF bunch though he has been pretty knocked about by his own side - Ahern especially disliked him I think - feared his ability.

How about Micahel Creed for FG? He's a very good politician with real potential to do a good job for FG. But Bruton is miles ahead of Kenny meanwhile. Dont understand FG's support for Kenny.

Joan Burton would be good for Labour.

Mary Lou needs a bit more road behind her to lead SF?

I doubt it. Cork North-West has long been one of the most anonymous constituencies in Dail Eireann. If it is famous at all, it is for producing quick GE counts, thereby electing 3 people nobody knows anything about and who are not household names, not even in their own households.