Who's in recession, who is heading there, who may avoid it

This is an interesting article on the economic forecast for Switzerland. Credit Suisse reckon with 1% economic growth in 2009 for Switzerland. The KOF (economic research institute) reckon with a short technical recession. If Credit Suisse are right, this would be quite extraordinary in the current circumstances.

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/front/Is_Switzerland_heading_for_a_recession.html?siteSect=106&sid=9790219&cKey=1222790191000&ty=st

How ye Slim buddha? There's a post on the property pin where they have a NY professor who has done a very decent job of forecasting recent events. I'll try to find it sometime today and post a link. It's good reading.

The site, he and other professionals have set up, RGE, discuss such things as recession at length. (They cover the entire world. One can often get their older articles). They are questioning the methodology of how many nations are calculating GDP. One of their lead writters has also questioned the "classical" definition in relation to the US. He asks whether having unemployment rise by 600K in a year doesn't constitute a recession for large sections of the US despite classical definitions. I've read the term "recession lite" bandied about.

To answer your question. Maybe China? But, who really knows how their stat methodology works.

Japan has been in a recession of sorts for over a decade if you measure past economic acticivty against current. However, the poorer performance of Japan's economy hasn't ended in panic and wholesale destruction of their economy or way of life. Too much is made of recession, as is GDP growth.

As far as I'm concerned Ireland has been in recession lite since the latter part of 2007, as have many other countries. The world ain't ending. The majority of people are still working, and a recessionary period is a good time for govt, business and individuals to take stock of their respective situations.

Given the current state of affairs and turmoil, the individuals and groups who learn from recent events will be better placed to deal with future prosperity and downturns. In Wall Street parlance, we've had the mother of all parties and we can expect the mother of all hang overs. Those who learn lessons from the recent party will celebrate with restraint and civility in the future. Those who don't are only taking a fool's cure. Indeed, I suppose a few full hardy souls might get drunk again and think the party never ended. All parties end. gl

If the mother of all hangovers is on the way, those who were not at the party but we on the outside looking in will be mightily pissed off. The problem in Ireland is compounded by our failure to recognise that a total reliance on FDI primarily from the US was perhaps a bit dumb and we should have built a foundation at least for solid domestic growth. Our exposure to corporate decisions in the US will be brought into painful relief yet again when the effects of this become apparant

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aktjzhZEdgfY&refer=home

We were really let down on industrial policy in the Celtic Tiger years by successive economically illiterate governments. The fact that Mary Coughlan is now responsible for this area of economic development can only be described as Palinesque.

Cheer up Slim. I've read on another thread that your setting up your stall in Switzerland. It's a country whose business is business from what I'm given to understand.

Ireland can use a "slowdown" to get its house in order. Given the hurt many people are experiencing now, it will be in the government's interest to start tackling the long terms problems. It may take awhile but no doubt the powers-that-be see the writing on the wall at this stage. Don't they?

I have to believe they do although they may not have great ideas to deal with the mess. Meanwhile, a veneer of normality will be trotted out for us mere plebs.

It's up to the average citizen to wake up and smell the coffee. There seems to be a notion in some power-circles that a dumb citizen is a better citizen. More easily manipulated. I believe that an informed citizen will make better individual financial decisions which will add to the over-all economic performance of the nation. Hell, there may be a few individuals who will be forced to take calculated risks and start up businesses rather than "working for the man". Maybe the average citizen needs to be kicked out of his or her complancency?

rockyracoon wrote:

Cheer up Slim. I've read on another thread that your setting up your stall in Switzerland. It's a country whose business is business from what I'm given to understand.

Ireland can use a "slowdown" to get its house in order. Given the hurt many people are experiencing now, it will be in the government's interest to start tackling the long terms problems. It may take awhile but no doubt the powers-that-be see the writing on the wall at this stage. Don't they?

I have to believe they do although they may not have great ideas to deal with the mess. Meanwhile, a veneer of normality will be trotted out for us mere plebs.

It's up to the average citizen to wake up and smell the coffee. There seems to be a notion in some power-circles that a dumb citizen is a better citizen. More easily manipulated. I believe that an informed citizen will make better individual financial decisions which will add to the over-all economic performance of the nation. Hell, there may be a few individuals who will be forced to take calculated risks and start up businesses rather than "working for the man". Maybe the average citizen needs to be kicked out of his or her complancency?

It is up to the citizen to wake up and realise what is happening. I concur with your assessment of how the powers that be view the citizen as best when dumb. This has been the view of the US Republican Party for 30 years and they successfully dumbed down politics to the point where Bush/Cheney were actually re-elected.

There is a reason, apart for the efficiency of local government and favourable corporation taxes, why my colleagues and I are setting up in Switzerland. Basically it comes down to a stable economy and sound government. You always stand a better chance when these variables are made less variable.

Oh, and location.

Slim Buddha wrote:

There is a reason, apart for the efficiency of local government and favourable corporation taxes, why my colleagues and I are setting up in Switzerland. Basically it comes down to a stable economy and sound government. You always stand a better chance when these variables are made less variable.

Good move and hope it goes well. If many others had any sense or had time to consider they would follow you. If someone has a business that can move they would be well advised to use some of the down turn ahead and spend a bit of time considering the alternatives.

With regards recession, agree generally for most not a problem but if you are one of the extra 5-10% who become unemployed disastrous particularly with the current levels of personal debt and lack of social housing. It seems to me that we have decided on the Japanese route and a long recession looms. If any of the Banks fail in will be an utter disaster. The government simply does not have the income to meet current obligations. Playing bluff may be fine on foreign policy but not on economics.

There is opportunity in boom and bust if you can get out in time and reinvest in the low. There will be some opportunities ahead. Also many fear inflation, but inflation can be a great leveller and an inflation rate of 15% would sort out the constipated property market in a about 18 months.

Squire wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

There is a reason, apart for the efficiency of local government and favourable corporation taxes, why my colleagues and I are setting up in Switzerland. Basically it comes down to a stable economy and sound government. You always stand a better chance when these variables are made less variable.

Good move and hope it goes well. If many others had any sense or had time to consider they would follow you. If someone has a business that can move they would be well advised to use some of the down turn ahead and spend a bit of time considering the alternatives.

With regards recession, agree generally for most not a problem but if you are one of the extra 5-10% who become unemployed disastrous particularly with the current levels of personal debt and lack of social housing. It seems to me that we have decided on the Japanese route and a long recession looms. If any of the Banks fail in will be an utter disaster. The government simply does not have the income to meet current obligations. Playing bluff may be fine on foreign policy but not on economics.

There is opportunity in boom and bust if you can get out in time and reinvest in the low. There will be some opportunities ahead. Also many fear inflation, but inflation can be a great leveller and an inflation rate of 15% would sort out the constipated property market in a about 18 months.

Thanks for your good wishes, Squire. My German and Swiss colleagues in the venture are very optimistic of our chances of success. I mentioned elsewhere that I spent the last 2 years doing an LLM (Masters Degree in International Business Law). I am the bod who looks after the legal end of the operation, mainly because I cannot do anything else. The legal knowledge is useful because of the wide difference in company incorporation legal theory between Switzerland and, for example, Germany. A knowledge of international tax treaties is useful and also internal Swiss cantonal tax differences, not confined to corporation taxes. It has been an interesting experience so far and I have been more than pleasantly surprised by the approach of the cantonal authorities in Cantons Zug, Schwyz and Glarus to our initial plans. The whole process of company formation and launch will take about a year to do properly so I am in for the long haul.

Slim Buddha wrote:

Squire wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

There is a reason, apart for the efficiency of local government and favourable corporation taxes, why my colleagues and I are setting up in Switzerland. Basically it comes down to a stable economy and sound government. You always stand a better chance when these variables are made less variable.

Good move and hope it goes well. If many others had any sense or had time to consider they would follow you. If someone has a business that can move they would be well advised to use some of the down turn ahead and spend a bit of time considering the alternatives.

With regards recession, agree generally for most not a problem but if you are one of the extra 5-10% who become unemployed disastrous particularly with the current levels of personal debt and lack of social housing. It seems to me that we have decided on the Japanese route and a long recession looms. If any of the Banks fail in will be an utter disaster. The government simply does not have the income to meet current obligations. Playing bluff may be fine on foreign policy but not on economics.

There is opportunity in boom and bust if you can get out in time and reinvest in the low. There will be some opportunities ahead. Also many fear inflation, but inflation can be a great leveller and an inflation rate of 15% would sort out the constipated property market in a about 18 months.

Thanks for your good wishes, Squire. My German and Swiss colleagues in the venture are very optimistic of our chances of success. I mentioned elsewhere that I spent the last 2 years doing an LLM (Masters Degree in International Business Law). I am the bod who looks after the legal end of the operation, mainly because I cannot do anything else. The legal knowledge is useful because of the wide difference in company incorporation legal theory between Switzerland and, for example, Germany. A knowledge of international tax treaties is useful and also internal Swiss cantonal tax differences, not confined to corporation taxes. It has been an interesting experience so far and I have been more than pleasantly surprised by the approach of the cantonal authorities in Cantons Zug, Schwyz and Glarus to our initial plans. The whole process of company formation and launch will take about a year to do properly so I am in for the long haul.

Good luck in Switzerland. Must be great to live in a state with so much direct democracy. Is it any wonder that two of the wealthiest parts of the world, California and Switzerland, are also the two parts which involve citizens into political life through direct democracy.
In most countries, the people will look to their leaders, the politcians, to think of something to move them out of the crisis. Its something we could from.

Respvblica wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Squire wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

There is a reason, apart for the efficiency of local government and favourable corporation taxes, why my colleagues and I are setting up in Switzerland. Basically it comes down to a stable economy and sound government. You always stand a better chance when these variables are made less variable.

Good move and hope it goes well. If many others had any sense or had time to consider they would follow you. If someone has a business that can move they would be well advised to use some of the down turn ahead and spend a bit of time considering the alternatives.

With regards recession, agree generally for most not a problem but if you are one of the extra 5-10% who become unemployed disastrous particularly with the current levels of personal debt and lack of social housing. It seems to me that we have decided on the Japanese route and a long recession looms. If any of the Banks fail in will be an utter disaster. The government simply does not have the income to meet current obligations. Playing bluff may be fine on foreign policy but not on economics.

There is opportunity in boom and bust if you can get out in time and reinvest in the low. There will be some opportunities ahead. Also many fear inflation, but inflation can be a great leveller and an inflation rate of 15% would sort out the constipated property market in a about 18 months.

Thanks for your good wishes, Squire. My German and Swiss colleagues in the venture are very optimistic of our chances of success. I mentioned elsewhere that I spent the last 2 years doing an LLM (Masters Degree in International Business Law). I am the bod who looks after the legal end of the operation, mainly because I cannot do anything else. The legal knowledge is useful because of the wide difference in company incorporation legal theory between Switzerland and, for example, Germany. A knowledge of international tax treaties is useful and also internal Swiss cantonal tax differences, not confined to corporation taxes. It has been an interesting experience so far and I have been more than pleasantly surprised by the approach of the cantonal authorities in Cantons Zug, Schwyz and Glarus to our initial plans. The whole process of company formation and launch will take about a year to do properly so I am in for the long haul.

Good luck in Switzerland. Must be great to live in a state with so much direct democracy. Is it any wonder that two of the wealthiest parts of the world, California and Switzerland, are also the two parts which involve citizens into political life through direct democracy.
In most countries, the people will look to their leaders, the politcians, to think of something to move them out of the crisis. Its something we could from.

Part of living in a system like this is that things like the smoking ban, which Michael Martin introduced somewhat opportunistically in 2004 without too much consultation, is a subject where the citizens have their say, as happened in Zurich last weekend. Basically, Swiss doctors and medical professionals attending conferences were often asked when Switzerland was going to introduce a smoking ban and spent a lot of time explaining that 26 different smoking bans will have to be introduced because central government had no competence to introduce one. It is entirely within the competence of each individual canton. The cantons cannot introduce something like a smoking ban without a vote put to the people offering at least one alternative. So last weekend the voters were offered a choice of smoking ban, a strong ban or a not-so-strong ban. They voted for the stronger ban. This will take a year to come into force because the cantonal authorities must consult the likely affected parties to inform themselves as to how to introduce the ban effectively in a way that pleases the greatest number of people.

That is direct democracy, Swiss style. It can be criticised as cumbersome but, at the end of the day, it works for them.

Back to topic. I quoted a story that says that in the opinion of Credit Suisse, Switzerland may avoid a recession completely and record economic growth of 1% next year. Ireland and New Zealand are in recession, i expect the UK and the US to follow and Europe will find the going rough. I believe the practitioners of the Anglo-Saxon model to be more exposed than most but other opinions are most welcome.

rockyracoon wrote:

Cheer up Slim. I've read on another thread that your setting up your stall in Switzerland. It's a country whose business is business from what I'm given to understand.

Ireland can use a "slowdown" to get its house in order. Given the hurt many people are experiencing now, it will be in the government's interest to start tackling the long terms problems. It may take awhile but no doubt the powers-that-be see the writing on the wall at this stage. Don't they?

I have to believe they do although they may not have great ideas to deal with the mess. Meanwhile, a veneer of normality will be trotted out for us mere plebs.

It's up to the average citizen to wake up and smell the coffee. There seems to be a notion in some power-circles that a dumb citizen is a better citizen. More easily manipulated. I believe that an informed citizen will make better individual financial decisions which will add to the over-all economic performance of the nation. Hell, there may be a few individuals who will be forced to take calculated risks and start up businesses rather than "working for the man". Maybe the average citizen needs to be kicked out of his or her complancency?

That may be true for some but for others the situation is already turning into tragedy. An acquaintance is a the principal of a rural education centre. Last academic year he employed as a part-time bus driver a man whose family farm had become uneconomic through no fault of his own - we all know that small farmers are being deliberately squeezed out. He was hard-working and he took the collapse of his business to heart. The driving job was one of three part time positions he had taken to try to compensate for his change in circumstances and he threw himself into it with a lot of good nature and enthusiasm for the student group with whom the centre works - even accompanying them on field trips and other outings to show willing. He committed suicide at the age of 47 in early September after making meticulous arrangements for his family for when he was gone. He had even cleaned and tidied the centre's bus and organised all the CDs in it alphabetically. In the two weeks since he died, my friend has had no fewer than four visits from men in similar circumstances aged between 45 and 55 or thereabouts - ostensbily to offer expressions of sympathy to the staff and students who were very fond of the deceased. The men had really come to ask whether the man's job had been taken - which it had been within 5 days of his suicide. There will be a whole lot more of these personal tragedies in the coming months and years and it might be best if we refrained from any sort 'pull your socks up and get on with it advice' to the relatively if not entirely innocent victims of the economic savagery of recent years.

Who's in recession?

France

Ireland

New Zealand

and who's heading into one...

The UK

Germany and Spain

Slim Buddha wrote:

Respvblica wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

Squire wrote:

Slim Buddha wrote:

There is a reason, apart for the efficiency of local government and favourable corporation taxes, why my colleagues and I are setting up in Switzerland. Basically it comes down to a stable economy and sound government. You always stand a better chance when these variables are made less variable.

Good move and hope it goes well. If many others had any sense or had time to consider they would follow you. If someone has a business that can move they would be well advised to use some of the down turn ahead and spend a bit of time considering the alternatives.

With regards recession, agree generally for most not a problem but if you are one of the extra 5-10% who become unemployed disastrous particularly with the current levels of personal debt and lack of social housing. It seems to me that we have decided on the Japanese route and a long recession looms. If any of the Banks fail in will be an utter disaster. The government simply does not have the income to meet current obligations. Playing bluff may be fine on foreign policy but not on economics.

There is opportunity in boom and bust if you can get out in time and reinvest in the low. There will be some opportunities ahead. Also many fear inflation, but inflation can be a great leveller and an inflation rate of 15% would sort out the constipated property market in a about 18 months.

Thanks for your good wishes, Squire. My German and Swiss colleagues in the venture are very optimistic of our chances of success. I mentioned elsewhere that I spent the last 2 years doing an LLM (Masters Degree in International Business Law). I am the bod who looks after the legal end of the operation, mainly because I cannot do anything else. The legal knowledge is useful because of the wide difference in company incorporation legal theory between Switzerland and, for example, Germany. A knowledge of international tax treaties is useful and also internal Swiss cantonal tax differences, not confined to corporation taxes. It has been an interesting experience so far and I have been more than pleasantly surprised by the approach of the cantonal authorities in Cantons Zug, Schwyz and Glarus to our initial plans. The whole process of company formation and launch will take about a year to do properly so I am in for the long haul.

Good luck in Switzerland. Must be great to live in a state with so much direct democracy. Is it any wonder that two of the wealthiest parts of the world, California and Switzerland, are also the two parts which involve citizens into political life through direct democracy.
In most countries, the people will look to their leaders, the politcians, to think of something to move them out of the crisis. Its something we could from.

Part of living in a system like this is that things like the smoking ban, which Michael Martin introduced somewhat opportunistically in 2004 without too much consultation, is a subject where the citizens have their say, as happened in Zurich last weekend. Basically, Swiss doctors and medical professionals attending conferences were often asked when Switzerland was going to introduce a smoking ban and spent a lot of time explaining that 26 different smoking bans will have to be introduced because central government had no competence to introduce one. It is entirely within the competence of each individual canton. The cantons cannot introduce something like a smoking ban without a vote put to the people offering at least one alternative. So last weekend the voters were offered a choice of smoking ban, a strong ban or a not-so-strong ban. They voted for the stronger ban. This will take a year to come into force because the cantonal authorities must consult the likely affected parties to inform themselves as to how to introduce the ban effectively in a way that pleases the greatest number of people.

That is direct democracy, Swiss style. It can be criticised as cumbersome but, at the end of the day, it works for them.

Back to topic. I quoted a story that says that in the opinion of Credit Suisse, Switzerland may avoid a recession completely and record economic growth of 1% next year. Ireland and New Zealand are in recession, i expect the UK and the US to follow and Europe will find the going rough. I believe the practitioners of the Anglo-Saxon model to be more exposed than most but other opinions are most welcome.

Cheers for the insight Slim. I know its not really relevent to ask about switzerland's political system but I actually do think it is somewhat relevent to the discussion. Direct democracy should engender more transparency in terms of political decision making. A lot of our financial problems at the moment have their roots in the ability of bankers (and their political friends) to muddy the waters with their dealings. The political-business link is the dangerous one as far as I'm concerned and that can be best remedied by healthy doese of democracy. Best for the state and the best for business in general. The fact that switzerland hasnt got a strong executive which is basically free to implement "important" decisions like guaranteeing banks or such matters hasnt exactly harmed them financially over the centuries. Its my reading of history that the apparantly clumsy, deliberating but open societies do best in the long term. Another thread perhaps.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Who's in recession?

France

Ireland

New Zealand

and who's heading into one...

The UK

Germany and Spain

I agree, Ard. Germany must eventually grasp the nettle and start firing public servants. The legacy of not firing public servants has created a situation where a generation of wasters has been mollycoddled and been a drain on the public purse.

All the above are already in recession. It's only a matter of when it's politically expedient to announce the obvious. You can add the US to the list as well.

rockyracoon wrote:

All the above are already in recession. It's only a matter of when it's politically expedient to announce the obvious. You can add the US to the list as well.

There is an argument to be made about this. I am always amazed at the econoomic performance of Germany. The Germans seem to go far far out of their way to make life difficult for themselves yet six months ago were the world's biggest exporters. If they could find a way to kill the stifling bureaucracy that strangles their economy daily, they would slaughter almost every economy on the planet. But they mentally cannot get over the bureaucracy problem. Anybody who has ever done business in Germany knows what I mean. Nice people, great country, fantastic beer, but the bureaucracy comes direct from Hell.

Take you point on the auld Germans but they have a fairly successful social and business model that seems to require the bureacracy. Given normal circumstances, they'd be kicking arse.

As for the recession thingy. It seems the vast majority of economic "experts" are re-assessing how they veiw downturns in the economy. Govt stats don't cut the mustard and anyway the measurement techniques often fail to acurately portray how the "misery" is spread and how each downturn is affecting sections of the population in the long term. While economies were generating excess or surplus wealth in the aggregate, the big GDP numbers were sufficient to give one a snapshot of the health of an economy. This snapshot, given what some deem to be a contraction in aggregate wealth, is insufficient to capture the increasing number of people who are falling into the debt spiral, and it fails to capture how the effects of contraction are impacting on the children of this cohort of people. Just my musings!

Slim Buddha wrote:

But they mentally cannot get over the bureaucracy problem. Anybody who has ever done business in Germany knows what I mean. Nice people, great country, fantastic beer, but the bureaucracy comes direct from Hell.

True, try India and all else will seem a breeze.

I am not particularly interested in the stock market, futures, or the money markets. They are not a level playing field and favour insiders and major players. My main interest in these matters is more related to the effects the markets have on the real economy where wealth is actually created.

I prefer what I can control. I prefer long games where I can intervene to influence the outcome, not gambles and quick deaths. I like certainty and a definite profit rather than massive gains or losses on wild gambles. I am fundamentally interested in construction, but am known to stray to any opportunity that arises.

Failure to effectively deal with this current financial crises is systematically destroying the economy and here is one minor example.

One reasonable sized construction project could easily have 50 people employed on site. In addition to this there are the various professions, estate agents, surveyors, solicitors, engineers and architects. There are also all the suppliers, the people who make the bricks, and concrete and then there are the suppliers of the raw materials, the quarries and lumber jacks etc. All these people pay tax and they go home and spend their wages on the necessities of life. I (with others) would like to be involved with at least 15 – 20 such projects at any one time, but we are slowly grinding to a standstill, because we cannot with any certainty guess what way to hop. Yet across the world there are no shortage of projects that are needed. There are millions homeless, poor sewerage treatment is the rule in many countries as is lack of fresh clean water, lack of storage sheds, offices, factories ........ and so on.

My colleagues are well educated, financially sound, and basically sensible people from diverse backgrounds. Some of us spent the weekend reflecting on the options. We decided that basically we will not be starting any new construction project, anywhere until we get a clearer picture of the likely economic future! We will increase our land bank if good opportunity arises, and that is it.

This sitting around bothers me, it is not using money and with interest rates likely to fall it is not without its own risk.

Instead of being people who create wealth we have become spectators and speculators and in the meant time people lose their jobs.

I am livid.