Brian Cowen's State of the Nation Speech - Now Its Pay-Per-View Government

unaligned wrote:

I expect the next Dail session to be an interesting one. The dogs in the street (even the 38% who voted for them) knew that Fianna Fail never did 'the vision thing'. They plunder along, try to keep everyone happy, and hope to God that Noel Dempsey keeps his ideas to himself. Fianna Fail's unique selling point was competence. That notion is now dead and the emperor is bollock naked. If Fine Gael cannot make hay out of this series of events then they might as well pack up and go home. I expect that Enda will stand aside after the locals so perhaps they will be more successful at formulating a workable strategy after that.

I enjoyed this post, unaligned.

youngdan wrote:

Good morning, my name is Magic Arse.......

The predicted moment seems to have come.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

I was very disappointed by Pat Rabbitte not allowing Labour (Joan Burton) to fight the election on the economy. But I guess that's for another day.

I was just reading a contribution Joan Burton made in 2005 to a book titled "Managing Ireland's Future 2005-2030". A few quotes:

"I suspect we will be spending a lot of time and effort in mopping up some of the less desirable features of the recent rollercoaster decade"

"I'm sure people in a future decade will be bewildered that so little was done to equip the country and its capital city with a modern transport system at a time when funds were plentiful"

"We can't have much cost control over international oil or gas costs but we do have one of the best wind resources in the world available to us. Wind is the renewable energy source that is closest to commerciality."

"It is impossible to justify the extent of child poverty in thsi State when even so simple an issue as basic nourishment is not guaranteed to all primary school children and where early childhood pre-school educaion facilities are almost non-existent"

"In my view the Irish people want a health care system that providesa universal standard of healthcare for both hospital and community services."

"Ireland has slipped in International competitiveness leagues from 4th to 11th to 22nd to 30th in the space of just four years. Our price level is way above the EU avearage. Our internet usage is below average."

This is all good, but when it came to the crunch of the economics there was no mention of house price inflation, wage inflation and bloating of public service costs.
Did she cover these things on other occasions?

On the house price inflation - does anyone outside thepropertypin believe that prices are about 3 times higher than they should be? Well, they're falling now but does anyone really believe it's an issue? Cowen was directly involved with stamp duty issues and he was minister for finance during the mortgage madness over the last number of years - I really think the government was highly irresponsible by not intervening in any ways it could at that time to take the heat out of the market bubble. We would be left with runaway unplanned sprawl too if local councillors weren't prevented by the Gormley lately yet on the other hand there are infrastructural deficits with sewage systems which cannot support building - planned or not.

But apparently house prices aren't falling as much now according to RTE news (yeah right)

Auditor #9 wrote:

On the house price inflation - does anyone outside thepropertypin believe that prices are about 3 times higher than they should be? Well, they're falling now but does anyone really believe it's an issue? Cowen was directly involved with stamp duty issues and he was minister for finance during the mortgage madness over the last number of years - I really think the government was highly irresponsible by not intervening in any ways it could at that time to take the heat out of the market bubble. We would be left with runaway unplanned sprawl too if local councillors weren't prevented by the Gormley lately yet on the other hand there are infrastructural deficits with sewage systems which cannot support building - planned or not.

But apparently house prices aren't falling as much now according to RTE news (yeah right)

Hang on a second - if they had interfered in the market - the populace which is genetically programmed to worship property in this country - and was totally punch drunk on the rising property prices - would have gone apeshit and probably chucked FF out in 2002.

As one of the orginal doom mongers on this whole issue and part of the orginal band who set up the Property Pin - I have to say that you get the government you deserve - FF are democratically elected - the people vote for them and the people need to learn a harsh lesson in economics - iw what goes up most come down and credit is not free money.

If you are going to give out to anybody - well next time you meet an FF voter - give him a kick in the head and tell him he deserved it as his greed has been the ruin of us all.

Jeez - a card carrying FGer defending FF - Im going off to lie down for a while

Edo wrote:

As one of the orginal doom mongers on this whole issue and part of the orginal band who set up the Property Pin - I have to say that you get the government you deserve - FF are democratically elected - the people vote for them and the people need to learn a harsh lesson in economics - iw what goes up most come down and credit is not free money.

You were one of the founders of the Property Pin? Are you Open Window or The Unwelcome Guest or what?

Edo wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

On the house price inflation - does anyone outside thepropertypin believe that prices are about 3 times higher than they should be? Well, they're falling now but does anyone really believe it's an issue? Cowen was directly involved with stamp duty issues and he was minister for finance during the mortgage madness over the last number of years - I really think the government was highly irresponsible by not intervening in any ways it could at that time to take the heat out of the market bubble. We would be left with runaway unplanned sprawl too if local councillors weren't prevented by the Gormley lately yet on the other hand there are infrastructural deficits with sewage systems which cannot support building - planned or not.

But apparently house prices aren't falling as much now according to RTE news (yeah right)

Hang on a second - if they had interfered in the market - the populace which is genetically programmed to worship property in this country - and was totally punch drunk on the rising property prices - would have gone apeshit and probably chucked FF out in 2002.

As one of the orginal doom mongers on this whole issue and part of the orginal band who set up the Property Pin - I have to say that you get the government you deserve - FF are democratically elected - the people vote for them and the people need to learn a harsh lesson in economics - iw what goes up most come down and credit is not free money.

If you are going to give out to anybody - well next time you meet an FF voter - give him a kick in the head and tell him he deserved it as his greed has been the ruin of us all.

Jeez - a card carrying FGer defending FF - Im going off to lie down for a while

I agree with you Edo that it is high time that everyone here takes responsibility if we repeatedly elect politicians with bad track records. I suppose a difficulty in the last few years is that the boom masked over the underlying weakness of the Irish economy. Economists and politicians were saying that a 'soft landing' was the worst that could be expected. The second difficulty is that there was no serious economic opposition programme put forward at the last election, unless you count SF. But at the end of the day, any of us can stand for election if we aren't happy with what is on offer.

When it comes to house price inflation, I think that FF's close and beneficial interest in the property business came into play, as well as the moronic reliance on property taxation to fund all forms of local and national spending. More than 50% of house prices goes straight to the government.

Why anybody would expect Brian Cowen to be any different to the bog-standard visionless FF politician that this party specialise in is beyond me. He made Mary Coughlan Tanaiste. That tells you everything you need to know about him.

youngdan wrote:

Good morning, my name is Magic Arse.......

Kerr..ching! He's raiding the Pension Fund.

cactus flower wrote:

The second difficulty is that there was no serious economic opposition programme put forward at the last election, unless you count SF. But at the end of the day, any of us can stand for election if we aren't happy with what is on offer.

You cannot seriously say that SF offered anything approaching a coherent economic policy in the last election. They have no understanding of economics in the Republic. They tried to join in on auction politics by suddenly dropping plans for 17.5% corporate tax rates and a top rate of 50% in PAYE straight before the election. It failed since the electorate saw it for the cheap scam that it was. Brian Dobson questioned Gerry Adams about SF's 50% tax rate and he was unclear about that at best. SF have no vision, no experience and no capability to manage our economy.

cactus flower wrote:

youngdan wrote:

Good morning, my name is Magic Arse.......

Kerr..ching! He's raiding the Pension Fund.

I saw this on p.ie, reported by spalpeen.
http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?f=161&t=39679

The Times article says

Irish Times wrote:

The move must be sanctioned by Eurostat, the EU body that oversees the methodology of compilation for national statistics

So it's possible that the raid will be rejected by the EU accountant body that oversees the financial state of the States ..? or does it amount to dipping into your SSIA to pay for your winter's heating oil and Christmas pressies - you can if you want but it's unwise. Or will the EU print some cash into the Irish economy on the strength of the pension fund? Because it only be a once-off according to the Opposition

The Irish Times wrote:

There were doubts in Opposition circles that the use of the plan to boost the Government's financial position would be approved. However, economist Pat McArdle said the sharp decline in the economy could see it passed if it was seen as a once-off or temporary measure.

The Government initiative has been presented as a matter of "housekeeping" but Fine Gael finance spokesman Richard Bruton last night labelled it a "phony transaction". "This is simply creative accounting and will not reform anything or make it work better," he said

The Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SF have no vision, no experience and no capability to manage our economy.

I distinctly remember Cowen shouting Richard Bruton down last April/May when Sean O'Rourke was asking them both how a deficit would be made up should there be one. Cowen's argument was based on destroying Bruton's who he threatened would raid the pension fund - the

Incidentally, SF reckoned they could finance raises in nurses pay by taxing the Rossport Raiders, Shell.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Incidentally, SF reckoned they could finance raises in nurses pay by taxing the Rossport Raiders, Shell.

SF are the second last I'd trust with this economy. The Socialist Party would be the last. They would have us back to 20% unemployment, 20% inflation and an exodus of foreign investment within a full Dáil term. That is not to say I'm a fan of FF, I think FG and some in the Labour party would be better able to manage this.

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

The Green Party based their economic policies on the most conservative growth rates of 4% for the period between 2007 and 2012. Considering the way in which the economy has developed since then, it has to be seen as the most accurate portrayal of the future health of the Irish economy by any political party.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

The Green Party based their economic policies on the most conservative growth rates of 4% for the period between 2007 and 2012. Considering the way in which the economy has developed since then, it has to be seen as the most accurate portrayal of the future health of the Irish economy by any political party.

Is that the case of 4% being the closer to 0 or less?

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

Yeh, Michael Mc Dowell did, but he was talking about the prospect of FG+LAB.

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

The Green Party based their economic policies on the most conservative growth rates of 4% for the period between 2007 and 2012. Considering the way in which the economy has developed since then, it has to be seen as the most accurate portrayal of the future health of the Irish economy by any political party.

Is that the case of 4% being the closer to 0 or less?

We are more than likely not going to see growth this year and no growth next year. It is likely, however, that 2010, 11 and 12 will see significant growth which will bring the average to something around 3%. This is a very sudden and sharp deceleration in economic activity. I fail to see how this deceleration can be extended over that long a period. Overall, we can anticipate 3.8% average economic growth out to 2020. Deutsche Bank and the ESRI are of this opinion.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

Yeh, Michael Mc Dowell did, but he was talking about the prospect of FG+LAB.

I miss the mad mullah. It's very hard getting back to that level of hatred but i'm trying

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

The Green Party based their economic policies on the most conservative growth rates of 4% for the period between 2007 and 2012. Considering the way in which the economy has developed since then, it has to be seen as the most accurate portrayal of the future health of the Irish economy by any political party.

Is that the case of 4% being the closer to 0 or less?

We are more than likely not going to see growth this year and no growth next year. It is likely, however, that 2010, 11 and 12 will see significant growth which will bring the average to something around 3%. This is a very sudden and sharp deceleration in economic activity. I fail to see how this deceleration can be extended over that long a period. Overall, we can anticipate 3.8% average economic growth out to 2020. Deutsche Bank and the ESRI are of this opinion.

The economist agrees.

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

The Green Party based their economic policies on the most conservative growth rates of 4% for the period between 2007 and 2012. Considering the way in which the economy has developed since then, it has to be seen as the most accurate portrayal of the future health of the Irish economy by any political party.

Is that the case of 4% being the closer to 0 or less?

We are more than likely not going to see growth this year and no growth next year. It is likely, however, that 2010, 11 and 12 will see significant growth which will bring the average to something around 3%. This is a very sudden and sharp deceleration in economic activity. I fail to see how this deceleration can be extended over that long a period. Overall, we can anticipate 3.8% average economic growth out to 2020. Deutsche Bank and the ESRI are of this opinion.

The economist agrees.

As well it should. We're getting over our building/property hangover and once we're over that, then the fundamental strength of the Irish economy will shine through. We're a young, well-educated, entrepreneurial, English-speaking country with one of the best taxation and legal systems for business in the world. Now that infrastructure is being improved and we're fast catching up in broadband, we will see our growth rates return to their above-par performance. This will be especially true the next decade. The contraction we're experiencing is very mild since Japan went into a decade and a half stagnation after their property boom and Finland's GDP fell 15% in the early Nineties after something similar. We're looking at approximately -1% on GDP this year and about 0% next year with 3ish percent growth after that.

There would have been no sense in any party trying to fight the election on the economy. At the time, the economic climate did not look nearly as unstable and any party who raised fears about the economy would have been battered as recession seekers and pessimists by the Fianna Fail communications machine. Irish elections aren't fought on issues anyway. For instance, 85% of front page content across the three broadsheet newspapers were unrelated to policy content (source: How Ireland Voted 2007).

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

SeathrúnCeitinn wrote:

Did any political party at the last general election have an economic insight that came next or near the position we are in now?

Yeh, Michael Mc Dowell did, but he was talking about the prospect of FG+LAB.

I miss the mad mullah. It's very hard getting back to that level of hatred but i'm trying

Here's a reminder Seathrún

McDowell 9th March 2007 wrote:

Within months rather than years we will witness an ebbing in business
confidence followed by a quickly-developing slow down, and on to a
slump.

aaaaaaah......that's better

unaligned wrote:

There would have been no sense in any party trying to fight the election on the economy. At the time, the economic climate did not look nearly as unstable and any party who raised fears about the economy would have been battered as recession seekers and pessimists by the Fianna Fail communications machine. Irish elections aren't fought on issues anyway. For instance, 85% of front page content across the three broadsheet newspapers were unrelated to policy content (source: How Ireland Voted 2007).

I don't fully agree with that UA. There is a difference between nay-saying pessimism and exposing lies. And I think big chunks of the electorate know the difference.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

unaligned wrote:

There would have been no sense in any party trying to fight the election on the economy. At the time, the economic climate did not look nearly as unstable and any party who raised fears about the economy would have been battered as recession seekers and pessimists by the Fianna Fail communications machine. Irish elections aren't fought on issues anyway. For instance, 85% of front page content across the three broadsheet newspapers were unrelated to policy content (source: How Ireland Voted 2007).

I don't fully agree with that UA. There is a difference between nay-saying pessimism and exposing lies. And I think big chunks of the electorate know the difference.

Well thats a fair point yeah. The opposition parties chose to fight the election on the basis of the governments figures. This allowed them to put forward their own set of policy initiatives which meant that questioning the governments figures equated to rubbishing the viability of their own policies. Had they fought the election (as you suggest) on the theme of exposing lies then it could have been a very different story. I stand corrected!