The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

Hard to believe it would have fallen to 1000 - if so, Aldi would have been dealing in Irish financial shares.

It's going to go up I'd say but to where - any guesses? Maybe too early to say but you'd imagine it was a property price and associated financial correction and if so, what's the true value of the ISEQ after the correction eases in effect? 6500 or so?

Auditor #9 wrote:

Hard to believe it would have fallen to 1000 - if so, Aldi would have been dealing in Irish financial shares.

It's going to go up I'd say but to where - any guesses? Maybe too early to say but you'd imagine it was a property price and associated financial correction and if so, what's the true value of the ISEQ after the correction eases in effect? 6500 or so?

6500 would be a fair value for the ISEQ we could deal with till about 2010 when the next bull run would occur and we reclaim previous highs.

Someone made a few cuid today. Fair play to all those persistent fishermen.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Someone made a few cuid today. Fair play to all those persistent fishermen.

Indeed. Bank of America came out with much better-than-expected quarterly earnings today. I think that and the other forecast-busting reports from banks drew a lot of the poison out of the reputation of the financial industry in the last week.

If this is sustained into the next cycle of quarterly earnings reports and nothing major happens in the next three months, there is every possibility that this Summer will see the bottom of the current downdraught and an Autumn bull-run cum Santa Claus rally will see us level for the year as a whole.

It's a big if, but I sense that we have reached the bottom, all these good reports have to swing the balance of sentiment back.

Look at the charts you chartist, can you not see that this is the top of the bottom and not the bottom of the top. Nothing could be clearer.

youngdan wrote:

Look at the charts you cad, can you not see that this is the top of the bottom and not the bottom of the top. Nothing could be clearer.

Dan, we don't like namecalling around these parts, regardless of opinion. Please edit your post to be more respectful.Thanks. evm.

EVM. I choose that word specifically so that Ard-Taoiseach would know that the whole post was a jibe in jest. Ard-Taoiseach being a well read man of middle age would recognise it as a friendly retort. It is a play on the phrase seen with regard the credid crunch on whether we are nearing the beginning of the end or whether we are just at the end of the beginning.

Anyway I will edit just to remove the remotest chance of offence. After all it is very hurtfull when another poster loses their temper and tells them in no uncertain terms where to go.

A bit of profit taking today, I think.

Back down to 4896 I think, feeling very smug.

Given Ard-T's political position on the spectrum, "Chartist" might give him a nasty turn too.

youngdan wrote:

Look at the charts you chartist, can you not see that this is the top of the bottom and not the bottom of the top. Nothing could be clearer.

Now, now, I'll switch your bottom for your top if you keep that up!

Ah, I'm taking no offence. I've built up a fair thick skin over the years, so I can take a lot in my stride.

Today is indeed a bit crap, I'dve liked this rally to continue into this year, but the bears broke our bulls serve. Still, there seems to be a big pull-back in losses today. We might close the day positive if this continues, thereby nobbling your shorts.

cactus flower wrote:

Given Ard-T's political position on the spectrum, "Chartist" might give him a nasty turn too.

Ah, come now. That cuts me deep. I'm sympathetic to that 19th century movement ye big feckin' lefty!

youngdan wrote:

Look at the charts you chartist, can you not see that this is the top of the bottom and not the bottom of the top. Nothing could be clearer.

Bottoms Up, a satisfactory few days.

It could be worse. I picked last night to wax eloquently on the merits of silver over yonder only to awake to see it down about 50 cents to below 18 dollars.

This fall is just a mirror image of the rise in the dollar. This bears keeping a close eye on. I have discussed the the possibility of deflation before. If the oil continues to fall it will in itself and it's byproducts, remove an inflationary component. The things going up in price are energy and some food whereas prices of other goods are falling.
As assets are marked down and actual defaults are on the rise there is a massive reduction in the amount of dollars. The reduction in supply should mean a rise in value.
The dollar could continue to stay strong until the whole thing goes kaput. If word came that Fannie was going to be allowed to fail the dollar would rally. This would be the right thing to do because if the bond holders are saved the taxpayer pays and the dollar is cooked. A lot of the bonds are owned by foreign central banks and foreign investors including the Chinese. To Hell with them is my opinion. They bought rubbish and should bear the consequences.
Fannie made house more expensive than they would otherwise be. The lower the price of houses go the better. A basic necessity of life and I hope the price reachs a level where young people can buy.

My feeling is that the bounce was very typical of a bear market rally. These are always short and sharp as the shorts cover and grab profits. The natural human impulse is to let hope convince an investor that the bottom is in. A costly mistake

youngdan wrote:

It could be worse. I picked last night to wax eloquently on the merits of silver over yonder only to awake to see it down about 50 cents to below 18 dollars.

My feeling is that the bounce was very typical of a bear market rally. These are always short and sharp as the shorts cover and grab profits. The natural human impulse is to let hope convince an investor that the bottom is in. A costly mistake

On the ESB thread posted a few graphs on the value of precious metal prices over the last 15 years. You doubtless know them a lot better than I do. All of them seem to me to have risen sharply since 2003 and look very like the curves related to other parts of the economy!

With regards the bounce, it could be what you say or us bouncing around the bottom. It is fairly volatile, sharp daily falls and sharp rises. I am starting to get the feeling that it doesn't know what way it should go which means the mood is on the change. Let us see what the cat drags in over the next month but right now my trip zone is 4200-4500 unless there is news sufficiently bad to adjust that lower.

youngdan wrote:

It could be worse. I picked last night to wax eloquently on the merits of silver over yonder only to awake to see it down about 50 cents to below 18 dollars.

This fall is just a mirror image of the rise in the dollar. This bears keeping a close eye on. I have discussed the the possibility of deflation before. If the oil continues to fall it will in itself and it's byproducts, remove an inflationary component. The things going up in price are energy and some food whereas prices of other goods are falling.
As assets are marked down and actual defaults are on the rise there is a massive reduction in the amount of dollars. The reduction in supply should mean a rise in value.
The dollar could continue to stay strong until the whole thing goes kaput. If word came that Fannie was going to be allowed to fail the dollar would rally. This would be the right thing to do because if the bond holders are saved the taxpayer pays and the dollar is cooked. A lot of the bonds are owned by foreign central banks and foreign investors including the Chinese. To Hell with them is my opinion. They bought rubbish and should bear the consequences.
Fannie made house more expensive than they would otherwise be. The lower the price of houses go the better. A basic necessity of life and I hope the price reachs a level where young people can buy.

My feeling is that the bounce was very typical of a bear market rally. These are always short and sharp as the shorts cover and grab profits. The natural human impulse is to let hope convince an investor that the bottom is in. A costly mistake

In order for young people to buy, somebody has to have money or credit to build, and young people have to have credit to buy. That isn't happening this side of Christmas (2012?).

I somewhat looked out on buying gold down through the years. On October 19th 1987 I walked into a coin shop and bought an ounce for exactly 500 dollars. I was not to know it at the time but this was a price that I would not see again for about 18 years. The good news was that there was never a reason to buy gold as long as it were cheaper than what I had last bought it at. By the time it got down to 255 I knew that it was quite a better bargain than when I had origonally thought it fairly priced. The price price rose slowly and Gordan Brown started selling. Anyone who bought would be buying having seen his last purchases allready in the plus. This is averaging up which is ideal rather than averaging down which is bad.

Bringing this to the ISEQ if a lad bought at say 5500 thinking it were the bottom he definitely should not buy any more until it was up higher than this price. Trying to pick a bottom or indeed a top is nigh impossible and the best thing is to try and ride a trend in an individual stock.

The whole house price is a joke. Firstly take all taxes away. Then the cost of site plus material plus man hours plus profit should be the house cost. A lot less than prices presently I would guess.

5162 I think another good day.

As Des Broderick said in the IT, "Surely the recession is now over: Padraig Harrington has won the British Open and George Lee is on holidays".

cactus flower wrote:

As Des Broderick said in the IT, "Surely the recession is now over: Padraig Harrington has won the British Open and George Lee is on holidays".

Indeed. Up an amazing 250 points today. I feel tomorrow could see a 100 point fall tomorrow followed by a 200 point rise on Friday. I can't stop feeling that this is the bottom and the only way is up from here!

I can't stop the feeling. I think I will write a song. What happens when the unemployment and revenue numbers come out.

I'll get my finger on the buzzer to change the thread title to below 5000 again in the morning .

Back down to 4947 today. Doesn't know where to go. Any bad news and it will head down and any good and it will bounce back. Holiday season trading. A few months of this and we are probably out of the mire. Just depends if there are any tempests blowing our way that we don't already know about.

Squire wrote:

Back down to 4947 today. Doesn't know where to go. Any bad news and it will head down and any good and it will bounce back. Holiday season trading. A few months of this and we are probably out of the mire. Just depends if there are any tempests blowing our way that we don't already know about.

I feel we're in for another bounce tomorrow. The velocity of the rally is abating, so I see next week's trade as being less volatile than this weeks. If you look at the graph of the ISEQ in today's Times, a definite bottom was hit two weeks ago. This rally is stronger and longer than any we've seen for quite some time.